RLYW has released the 3rd version of CAIRO projections and a very early simulation of the 2013 season. The Cubs finish in 5th place in the NL Central and win 73 games. They would also pick 7th in the 2014 Draft.
| TM | W | L | RS | RA | Div | WC | WC2 | PS% |
| Reds | 90 | 72 | 739 | 659 | 38.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 55.0% |
| Cardinals | 87 | 75 | 696 | 650 | 30.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 47.4% |
| Brewers | 79 | 83 | 708 | 736 | 13.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 25.2% |
| Pirates | 78 | 84 | 670 | 688 | 11.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 22.8% |
| Cubs | 73 | 89 | 641 | 706 | 6.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 13.4% |
My optimistic prediction was was of course much higher, but I did point out yesterday and probably before that I believe this team will win 72 games as they are right now. If everything goes well, they could reach the postseason, but a 13.4% of doing so isn't exactly a high chance. It's important to consider what SG said in the post about these standings:
As the title says, this is still too early and mostly useless. So view them in that way.
We might have a pretty good idea of what the Cubs team will look like, but there are still several teams that we're not sure of. As we get closer to the start of the season these won't be so useless anymore.
I thought we already decided on “because we have to”
This is my official 2013 Cubs theme.
Mo-ovin’ on up
(Movin’ on up)
In the-e draft
(Movin’ on up)…
MLB has Soler ranked at #42 and Almora at #39 on their Top 50 prospect list.
They’re going through it on MLB Network right now.
Baez is #16.
@ Aisle424:
Let me know what they say about Vitters when they get to the top 10.
No Vogelbach, eh?
Edit: Nevermind, for some reason I thought it was a top 100 list.
dmick89 wrote:
Berselius wrote:
Berselius wrote:
What happened to the Vitters (dying laughing) macro?
@ SVB:
He’s not good enough for it.
@ GBTS:
I hear he’s on the bubble for that list
Looks like you were having a great time at Wrigley back in 1963, SK.
@ Aisle424:
I thought that was Al, with hair.
(Note no “basket” on the wall.)
SVB wrote:
We used to call that Banks Boulevard. I think about 300-400 of his HRs were aided by those baskets.
After replacing my BJ projections with ZiPS, and more or less distributing 6/11 shares to Feldman/Baker/Villanueva/Wood, a full share to Jackson, and 10/11 shares to Garza and Samardzija (innings-wise), I have a tentative projection of 80.78 wins for 2013.
This is the “objective” value that I’ve attained (not precisely, as my WAR calculator asks you to estimate a player’s defensive and baserunning abilities). When I write up my prediction, I’ll likely include the “subjective” value that I think it will be.
reds > dodgers? really? not sure i’d take that bet.
@ Myles:
It’s good that we nail down precisely how mediocre the Cubs will be.
Actually, I really don’t care how many games they win, if they can just manage to play good baseball. Last season they looked outmatched in virtually every game they played. Yeah, they scored big now and again, but those times were few and far between.
@ Myles:
CAIRO provides defensive projections. What was the link again to the spreadsheet you’re using? There might be a better one.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
The Reds are pretty damn good.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/30/advice-to-a-rod-that-if-taken-will-make-peoples-heads-explode/
If A-Rod did this…I would (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
perfect.
New Shit (be gentle)
@ Myles:
How do you win .78 games?
@ Rice Cube:
What does he have to lose with this approach? As long as the yanks don’t void his contract.