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  • RLYW’s Annual Projections Blowout

    For the last several years, SG from RLYW has run simulations for various projections. This year, the average for the Cubs is 71 wins, which is good for 5th place (1 win behind the Pirates). If you go to their home page you can find the various projected standings for each projections (clidk on the image to the right). The Cubs best is 73 and their worst is 70. Gonna be a fun season.

    dmick89
    When I awoke, the Dire Wolf, six hundred pounds of sin, Was grinning at my window, all I said was "Come on in"
    dmick89
    JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-21-13 http://t.co/YP42evMD1C - 5 hours ago
    dmick89
    Contact me here

    63 Responses to “RLYW’s Annual Projections Blowout”

    1. Berselius 1 Berselius says:

      I guess TCR was wrong about the optional waivers with Wells. That or he was claimed by some other team 4 days ago and has been pitching for them without a peep from the Chi media.

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    2. Berselius 2 Berselius says:

      After seeing a graphic like that, I’m ready for some baseball. Woooooo!

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    3. mb21 3 mb21 says:

      Yes, b, Ken O’Keefe. That’s perfect. (dying laughing)

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    4. Rice Cube 4 Rice Cube says:

      (dying laughing) (dying laughing) @ 0% for Astros.

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    5. mb21 5 mb21 says:

      I like how Houston has already been eliminated. (dying laughing)

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    6. josh 7 josh says:

      @ mb21:
      At least I’m not a Houston fan. That’s my mantra for the next few years. That article summarizing each team that someone posted earlier was talking about trading Carlos Lee. Who the hell would want him?

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    7. 8 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      If the Cubs beat their projections this year, the discrediting of OV will be forever. (dying laughing)

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    8. Rodrigo Ramirez 9 Rodrigo Ramirez says:

      So you’re saying there’s a chance?

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    9. GW 10 GW says:

      Rice Cube wrote:

      Stay safe, Texas folks:

      don’t tell me what to do

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    10. Aisle424 11 Aisle424 says:

      Berselius wrote:

      I guess TCR was wrong about the optional waivers with Wells. That or he was claimed by some other team 4 days ago and has been pitching for them without a peep from the Chi media.

      Why? Did i miss something? I don’t equate the absence of any news about Randy Wells clearing waivers as a sign that there were no waivers to clear. These guys didn’t notice Kerry Wood not being used for a week and that was right in front of them. If they noticed a paper trail that might require an asked question or two, it would be shocking.

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    11. 12 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Aisle424:
      Not to mention they still haven’t reported on the supposed injury to Hayden Simpson that’s cropped up around the blogs over the last couple months.

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    12. Berselius 13 Berselius says:

      Sounds like Sveumy is doing some spadework in advance of picking the last bullpen member. About Lendy Castillo:

      “He’s done OK,” manager Dale Sveum said before club’s final spring training game on Tuesday. “The velocity isn’t quite what it was earlier in camp. But he’s been pitching a lot more than he probably ever has. That’s one thing we’ve had to eyeball. He had to get built up. If he’s going to be in that role, he’s going to have to pitch quite a bit.”

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    13. 14 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      So is he looking at Castillo as the swingman?

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    14. Rice Cube 15 Rice Cube says:

      @ GW:
      Shut me right up.

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    15. mb21 16 mb21 says:

      Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

      So is he looking to delay Castillo’s return to whichever team the Cubs got him from?

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    16. josh 17 josh says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:
      Is that… you can actually extract information out of that collection of words?

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    17. 18 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ josh:
      Well, if you’re talking about building a guy’s arm up and him pitching a lot of innings out of the bullpen, that sounds like a guy you view as your swingman. Plus, with Wells demoted and F7 in the rotation, there’s no clear swing guy in the bullpen, unless you consider Camp that guy.

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    18. josh 19 josh says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:
      Yeah, all right, that sounds reasonable.

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    19. Aisle424 20 Aisle424 says:

      Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

      Plus, with Wells demoted and F7 in the rotation, there’s no clear swing guy in the bullpen,

      I thought Rodrigo is in the bullpen and assumed he’d be the swingman/spot starter.

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    20. 21 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Aisle424:

      Fuck you very much for reminding my that guy is still being paid to pitch for this team. (dying laughing)

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    21. Rice Cube 22 Rice Cube says:

      http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/columnists/fl-mikeb-miami-marlins-yankees-0403-20120402,0,2838494.column

      Except for the monstrosity in the outfield and the fish behind home plate I think I am jealous of all the features in this new ballpark.

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    22. WaLi 23 WaLi says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      Especially this one, amiright?

      Here, four Marlins can fit in the so-called plunge pool at a time — “and be very comfortable,

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    23. 24 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      Nick Fairley —————> busted for possession

      Still amazing to me that people who have the material resources to avoid things like DUIs and minor drug possession charges consistently choose to ignore those resources.

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    24. 25 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      Just for the record, I could really give two shits about athletes smoking weed, so long as they do so responsibly and in a way that doesn’t endanger others.

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    25. 26 wpbc says:

      theo speaks and guess what, the fans and media are just ‘noise’! that includes you al the left field bleacher general manager wannabe.

      http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120403&content_id=27876254&vkey=news_chc&c_id=chc

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    26. Suburban kid 27 Suburban kid says:

      Jack Daniel is still with us in spirit.

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    27. uncle dave 28 uncle dave says:

      Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

      Not to mention they still haven’t reported on the supposed injury to Hayden Simpson that’s cropped up around the blogs over the last couple months.

      In all fairness, that’s hardly news (dying laughing).

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    28. uncle dave 29 uncle dave says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      Did the author of that article describe the Marlins’ fanbase as “long-suffering” or did I just imagine that?

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    29. mb21 30 mb21 says:

      @ wpbc:
      This is the interesting quote:

      “We need more talent,” Epstein said in a 30-minute session with Cubs beat reporters. “We lack impact talent. We have a number of interesting guys, especially at the lower levels. Every organization has interesting guys at the lower levels.

      He’s basically saying that Jackson and Rizzo aren’t impact talent. I’m not sure I agree on Jackson. I think he could be. I think Rizzo has less of a chance of being an impact talent simply because he has to hit so damn well to make up for playing 1st base. It’s an interesting comment.

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    30. 31 Mobile Rice says:

      @ mb21:
      I think the statement doesn’t preclude Jackson and Rizzo being impact guys but is rather saying that they don’t have enough Jacksons and Rizzos.

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    31. Berselius 32 Berselius says:

      I didn’t read Sveum’s comments as talking about Castillo as a long man, it was just as a regular bullpen guy. He’s made 12 or so appearances in the last month and looks tired (worst insult every). I think they’re concerned he can’t pitch 3-4 times in a week.

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    32. mb21 33 mb21 says:

      @ Mobile Rice:
      Could be, but I think even an optimistic projection for either of them is going to be about 4 WAR. Both of them have some issues. Jackson will have to have a high BABIP in order to maintain the high OBP. If Rizzo is more like the guy that showed up in the minors last season then he’s definitely an impact talent, but the rest of career indicates someone not nearly as good as that. However, he’d been young for his level so we should probably bump the numbers up just a little bit. Using a league average .325 wOBA, average defense and baserunning, Rizzo would have to have a wOBA of .390 to be worth 4 WAR. I know nothing about his defense. It’s likely his baserunning is below average. Only 5 1st basemen last season had a better than average UBR. Rizzo, in only 153 plate appearances was worth -1.6 runs on the bases. He reached base only 42 times (43, but one was a home run). 1 of those was a triple and 8 were doubles. Small sample so we don’t know much about his baserunning yet.

      I could see him being slightly above average on the bases and with the glove early on in his career so maybe he’d only need a .375 wOBA, but if he’s below average at both, he may need a .400 wOBA just to be a 4 WAR player.

      I use 4 WAR because that’s what I think of when we’re talking impact talent.

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    33. mb21 34 mb21 says:

      @ Berselius:
      I’m concerned he can’t pitch 3 to 4 times per week in AAA, which I guess is pretty much the Chicago Cubs these days. (dying laughing)

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    34. Rice Cube 35 Rice Cube says:

      Doesn’t look too bad. Two days until we see it in action.

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    35. 36 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      OMG THE INFORMATION CONVEYED ON THIS BOARD WILL COMPLETELY RUIN THE WRIGLEY EXPERIENCE OF BEER, URINE BREEZES, AND LOSING.

      / THIS GUY:

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    36. Suburban kid 37 Suburban kid says:

      Rice Cube wrote:

      Doesn’t look too bad. Two days until we see it in action.

      It the good Lord’s willing and the creeks don’t rise, I hope to be back with you for this inglorious day.

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    37. mb21 38 mb21 says:

      SK, your avatar both freaks me out and cracks me up.

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    38. Mish 39 Mish says:

      @ mb21:
      I imagine your avatar and his have sex, regularly. Just like you two. (dying laughing)

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    39. 40 Al Yellon says:

      Mish wrote:

      @ mb21:
      I imagine your avatar and his have sex, regularly. Just like you two. (dying laughing)

      (dying laughing)

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    40. Rice Cube 41 Rice Cube says:

      @ Al Yellon:
      Al has a sense of humor?

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    41. Suburban kid 42 Suburban kid says:

      Mish wrote:

      @ mb21:
      I imagine your avatar and his have sex, regularly.

      Given your favourite hobby, I’m not surprised.

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    42. 43 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      The Cubs run the bases like your avatars fuck.

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    43. Rizzo the Rat 45 ACT says:

      So, how many times will the Cubbies go down on strikes on Thursday? I’m thinking at least double-digits.

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    44. 46 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      I like to bag on Deadspin, but this is an excellent feature: http://deadspin.com/better-know-an-umpire/

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    45. Rizzo the Rat 47 ACT says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:
      The very idea of Boskie “grooving” a pitch is comical. His best pitch is a “groove” to a normal pitcher.

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    46. 48 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ ACT:

      Yep. But the facts never stand in the way of a good BBWAA narrative.

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    47. 49 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ ACT:
      I say 10-15.

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    48. 50 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      mb21 wrote:

      I like how Houston has already been eliminated. (dying laughing)

      They aren’t mentally prepared for the season.

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    49. Berselius 51 Berselius says:

      ACT wrote:

      So, how many times will the Cubbies go down on strikes on Thursday? I’m thinking at least double-digits.

      I’ll go with eight

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    50. Rizzo the Rat 52 ACT says:

      @ Berselius:
      Eight digits? Sounds a bit high.

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    51. Berselius 53 Berselius says:

      @ ACT:

      Nah, just 2^8 digits.

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    52. Rice Cube 54 Rice Cube says:

      @ ACT:
      That depends on how many first-pitch outs they can generate. If the Cubs work deep counts then it goes into double digits. If they swing away then I think they can keep it below double digits (dying laughing)

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    53. GW 55 GW says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:

      that pitchf/x plot they put up as ostensibly awful seems pretty unremarkable to me. also, the k/9 and bb/9 for 2010 seem too high.

      here’s his card from brooks baseball:
      http://www.brooksbaseball.net/umpire_cards/ump_cards.php?umpire=145

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    54. Berselius 56 Berselius says:

      @ GW:

      I don’t see the big deal there either

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    55. 57 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      Phil Cuzzi is a shitbox. I agree that particular graph doesn’t tell the story, but I was watching that game. Ozzie was literally goaded out of the dugout by Cuzzi. He’d been yapping from the dugout about some bad calls, Cuzzi called him out, Ozzie came out. They argued. Ozzie turned to leave, Cuzzi followed him to the dugout, and then ejected him. Whereupon Ozzie went ballistic. It’s not the first time he’s done that, either:

      June 25, 2010: Phil rings up James Loney of the Dodgers, ending the game, the culmination of a long night of questionable strike calls. As Loney walks back to the dugout, Cuzzi walks with him, and when the exchange gets heated, Cuzzi throws out Loney. That’s right, he threw a guy out when the game was ALREADY OVER. Not to mention he did the worst thing an umpire can do, which is engage a player or coach in argument, baiting them into getting thrown out.

      August 8, 2007: Cuzzi once again showed his tendency to engage managers, when he jawed with Ozzie Guillen till Guillen came out of the dugout and was thrown out. Guillen was quoted as saying: “From 1985 to now, I don’t see any umpire disrespect players and managers the way that guy does”. [This is the incident I mention above]

      Game 4, 2005 NLCS: Jim Edmonds was up in the 8th inning with the tying run on base. With the count 3-1, Edmonds took a pitch and started toward first, only for Cuzzi to call it a strike. When Edmonds turned around to ask where the pitch was, Cuzzi tossed him. The Cardinals would lose the game and the series.

      2003: In his 2nd to last game of the season, Roy Halladay was pitching for a Cy Young and a team record 22nd win. When Halladay threw a pitch inside to Rocco Baldelli, Phil decided it was intentional, and threw Halladay out of the game, a shocking move based on the circumstances. No one, including Baldelli, thought Halladay was trying to hit him.

      Game 2, 2009 ALDS: Ah, Phil’s masterpiece, his 9th symphony, his Hamlet. In a tied game in the 9th inning, Joe Mauer hit a ball down the left field line, which hit off Melky Cabrera’s glove in fair territory and went into the stands. Phil was the left field umpire, and despite being no more than 20 ft. away, looking right at the play, he called the ball foul. The call was so easy, it has been cited since as a great example of the need for instant replay in baseball. Perhaps baseball should just fire Phil Cuzzi.

      http://8thinningweirdness.blogspot.com/2010/07/phil-cuzzi-douchebag-extraordinaire.html

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    56. bubblesdachimp 58 bubblesdachimp says:

      I am so excited for opening day. I think we win 90!

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    57. Rizzo the Rat 59 ACT says:

      @ bubblesdachimp:
      April Fool’s Day was 2 days ago.

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    58. GBTS 60 GBTS says:

      I think bubbles is still drunk from Wrestlemania.

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    59. Pezcore 61 Pezcore says:

      Baseball Prospectus on Optional Waivers

      Looks like he didn’t get claimed.

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    60. josh 63 josh says:

      Looks like the Hope Monster has been visiting Brett, re: Darwin Barney: http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/04/04/police-are-still-investigating-the-starlin-castro-sexual-assault-allegation-claim-and-other-bullets/

      That said, while walks are a good skill, there have been guys who are successful without a lot of them. Ichiro doesn’t take a ton of walks. He swings at pitches out of the zone less frequently than Ichiro, and makes about the same contact in and out of the zone (all according to fangraphs, of course). His biggest problem seems to be he could be slightly more aggressive on balls actual thrown for strikes, and while Ichiro has murdered fastballs, Barney hasn’t had much success against fastballs yet.

      Granted, we’re talking a much smaller sample size for Barney as opposed to Ichiro, and I guess it seems like while a guy can have success without taking a lot of walks, it means he has to make good contact. Barney seems like he’s making a lot of contact, but that’s not translating into hits, i.e., lots of weak-ass grounders. Ichiro also had speed to beat out a few of his WAGs. Perhaps adding more power, to get the ball out of the infield, will help, but sustaining that over the course of the marathon season is pretty tough. My best guess is Barney comes on strong at first and then fades.

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