We've yet to show the projections for any of the outfielders and since I've been going around the horn, we'll start with left field. I'm breaking this into four posts: one for each position and then one for the backups.
Despite a .289 OBP last season, Alfonso Soriano managed to post a .325 wOBA, which was good for league average (99 wRC+). He did this thanks to his .469 slugging. There's reason to be optimistic that last season's OBP was so horrible because of a very low BABIP. Last year it was .266 and in his career it's been .301. Soriano no longer has the speed he once had so we can't expect him to continue to do that, but we're not likely to see it at .266 either. If that's true, we should see his OBP rise to the point where it's at least not horrible. It won't be good, but that's better than what it was a year ago.
Let's see if the projections agree with that.
| Projection | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA |
| CAIRO | 463 | 106 | 18 | 34 | 100 | .249 | .308 | .446 | .326 |
| Guru | 399 | 82 | 17 | 35 | 84 | .230 | .301 | .424 | .315 |
| ZiPS | 484 | 111 | 21 | 31 | 111 | .245 | .297 | .453 | .320 |
| PECOTA | 343 | 82 | 15 | 22 | 77 | .254 | .304 | .459 | .326 |
| Oliver | 485 | 105 | 19 | 31 | 102 | .236 | .289 | .426 | .308 |
| Bill James | 464 | 109 | 22 | 31 | 109 | .252 | .308 | .469 | .330 |
| RotoChamp | 490 | 113 | 22 | 32 | 116 | .247 | .300 | .456 | .326 |
| Dav-Marcel | 493 | 110 | 20 | 31 | 110 | .237 | .291 | .429 | .309 |
| Steamer | 414 | 93 | 18 | 29 | 95 | .245 | .301 | .455 | .335 |
| Marcel | 509 | 113 | 20 | 34 | 114 | .241 | .295 | .595 | .312 |
| Average | 454 | 102 | 19 | 31 | 102 | .244 | .299 | .461 | .321 |
Only a slightly improvement, which is then eliminated with a slight decrease in his SLG. Of the number above, it's the plate apperance projection that stands out the most to me. Projection systems project playing time based on previous years so it's unreliable, but I can't help but feel a little sorry for Soriano at this point. I remember back when he was with the Yankees and then even the Rangers and how he played every single day. He had 650+ plate appearances every full season of his career until he joined the Cubs in 2007. He had 617 that season, which surprised me. He hasn't even touched that since. He's 503, 522, 548 and 508 plate appearances in each of the last 4 seasons. The PECOTA and Guru projections seem way off to me, but with these numbers it's entirely possible he's replaced at some point this season. The .321 wOBA is about league average, but it's hard to get past the .299 OBP. That's a lot of outs.
That .321 projection is good for .5 batting WAR. I'd increase it to 500 as I think it's more likely he'll reach that point than not, but it's still .5 batting WAR.
We've yet to add in baserunning or defense. Soriano's baserunning isn't very good at this point in his career. Using UBR from Fangraphs over the last 4 years it's been -2.9, -.8, 1.1 and -3.7. We could take away at least 1 run for baserunning dropping him to .4 WAR. Defense? Well, I generally ignore it in projections, but Soriano is such an interesting case.
The defensive numbers for Soriano have been surprisingly good. That said, I don't think anybody in their right mind would say that Soriano is anything better than average defensively. I'll leave it up to you. If you want to add a couple runs based on the defensive metrics bump him to .6 WAR. If you want to take a handful away drop him to 0. It doesn't much matter. Soriano isn't very good and the more I look at this the more I'm convinced he won't be the Cubs left fielder by the middle of summer.
…and yet, he may still be the Cubs most productive outfielder through July 4. Unless Byrd rebounds.
And he could go on one of his patented mid-May tears and hit 13 HR, giving him a half-season total of 19-20, and still lead the team in HR. Unless LeHair proves to be ML and not 4A.
Unless
Unless
Unless
(dying)
(just dying)
(or maybe I’m stuck in The Lorax loop)
@ SkipVB:
(dying laughing) fwiw, even if Byrd doesn’t rebound, he’s likely to be 4 or 5 times more valuable than Soriano. He was worth 2 fWAR last year. Considering he was paid $5.5 million he was valuable.
Obama talking sports on the BS Report: http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/18687/b-s-report-barack-obama
I just want to say that I don’t use BA in any meaningful way, either. I don’t agree with ACT. It gives us SOME information but only if it’s given wih other numbers (such as OBP, SLG, BB%, etc). As for the denominator being PA vs AB, I totally disagree that that’s irrelevant. Why would I care about the percentage of hits a player gets in SOME of his plate appearances?
Mish wrote:
THIS. It’s why it’s not a rate similar to BB%, K% and other rates.
FB% only tells us what happens in SOME plate appearances. So does BABIP. I don’t personally want BB’s in the denominator because it makes hitters who walk a lot look worse (incidentally, some sabermetricians, like Colin Wyers, think that the denominator of K% should not include BB’s, either.) It essentially lumps outs and walks together.
But, taking it back to the argument that started this discussion, the triple slash line is, in my mind, a very efficient way of communicating information of what type of hitter I’m looking at. You get a good idea how good he is (from OBP and SLG), what his walk rate is (from OBP and BA), and what his ISO is (from BA and SLG). I’d much rather see that than wOBA (though I still want something like wOBA for evaluation purposes. It’s just that there’s more to life than evaluation.)
I would add that I think a sac fly should count as an at-bat. That rule has only a minor effect, though.
ACT wrote:
Does it really matter if they look worse? You said yourself you wanted to know how frequently the batter gets a hit. What better tells you that? His batting average or the rate of hits per plate appearances? If you saw Barry Bonds coming to the plate you’d say he gets a hit 29.8% of the time, but that’s not at all true. He got a hit in 23.2% of the times he came to the plate.
I’d say the fact that someone like Bonds gets fewer hits per plate appearance than Ryan Theriot (.253) is more than enough reason to say the stat sucks. So the fact that better hitters would look worse than someone like Ryan Theriot if we included all PA tells me it’s worth ignoring.
Tango often asks this question and I think it’s relevant here. He may have asked it already. He probably has.
If batting average didn’t exist, would someone invent it today?
If we already had OBP, BABIP, and all these other stats, why would anyone invent batting average in its current format? I find it very hard to believe that it would be invented today.
The same thing can be said for the save, which batting average is most comparable to in my opinion as far as uselessness. The save, because of its stupid rules, gives us nothing that we can’t get elsewhere. Batting average, because of it’s silly rules, gives us nothing that we can’t get elsewhere.
I don’t need it, but I’m not saying others shouldn’t.
@ mb21:
Yeah, thanks. That’s a good point. I’m close to being on the wrong side of the answer to the OV question of the week: Who cares?
mb21 wrote:
Word.
mb21 wrote:
I don’t get this at all. We’re talking about descriptive not evaluative stats. You might as well say BB% sucks because it underrates the likes of Aramis Ramiriz and Vlad Guerrero.
I’ll repeat myself once more (I’m getting tired of this): the triple slash line tells us quite a bit about the hitter, not just how good he is. Part of this is precisely because BA excludes walks. The reason is that the difference between batting average and SLG gives us the ISO. You can also get a rough idea how often he walks from the difference between BA and OBP. I also think it’s worth taking BBs and HBPs out of the denominator of BA because otherwise it treats them as outs. If I have a batter coming to the plate with 2 outs and a runner on third, I want to know how often he’ll get a hit compared to the chance that he’ll make an out. A walk is of minimal interest here.
I’ll admit, though that whether you take it per PA or AB is largely presentational if you know the walk rate. What I don’t get is people saying they don’t care how often a guy gets a hit. As I said before, what makes hitters interesting is not just how good they are, but how they are good. Ichiro and Dunn were good in different ways, and what made Ichiro good was his high BA (or hit rate). That’s more interesting than saying, “both are 20% better than average.”
BA answers the most obvious first question you’d have in baseball: how often does that guy get a hit? The fact that it gives an incomplete picture of the hitter isn’t as obvious until you start seeing the exceptions or you start thinking about how a double might be better than a single, and a homerun might be better than a double. I’d say that’s why it came about first was one of the most popular stats. Plus its simple to calculate.
Never change, Dan Snyder (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
Bonus (dying laughing) – the Redskins are still trying to sign Manning
josh wrote:
ACT wrote:
We’ve just been going in circles for about 3 days now. This is easily the longest ongoing discussion in the year that OV has been around. Worst of all, we both generally agree that batting average isn’t nearly as good as other metrics. Our differences on batting average are minimal. You find some value in knowing the batting average when a player comes to the plate. Fine. I’m not trying to change your mind. I find no value in it. Batting average shows me nothing I can’t find with better stats. I won’t change your mind and you won’t change mine. I think that much is clear.
ACT wrote:
I haven’t thought like this in several years, but that’s just me. I may know someone has a .270 batting average or a 65% chance of making an out, but in one plate appearances that information isn’t of much use with one exception: who to use as a pinch hitter. Even then, I’d defer to the projection, left/right splits projection or something else. Or even the manager’s gut. That plate appearance will either end the runner reaching base safely or an out. I find the safe/out information much more useful over may plate appearances and not just one, but again, that’s just me. To each their own.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/poll_whats_your_breakeven_for_2_for_1_trades/
I took 10 over each time.
Cubs baseball on tv today, yo.
@ mb21:
Sad as it is, I’m actually looking forward to it.
@ ACT:
Like I said, there are other ways to differentiate these two hitters than looking at their triple slash rates. If I want to know the difference between Ichiro and Dunn I am not going to consult batting average.
.351 BABIP for Ichiro, .292 for Dunn (explains the same thing as batting average, but better)
Ichiro 6.2% walk rate, .370 OBP
Dunn 16.2%, .374
Clearly the difference is in how they reach base. Ichiro gets many more hits, which BABIP also tells us.
.420 slg, .500 slg: ichiro hits more singles
Due to the high babip I can infer Ichiro has above average speed.
If I wanted to look more thoroughly I’d spend more than 3 minutes doing it, but you don’t need batting average to highlight the differences between players.
@ ACT:
Me too. I thought yesterday’s game was on, but it was tape delay and not aired until overnight. Hopefully we see Jackson start today. Vitters would be nice too though I don’t have high hopes for him.
@ mb21:
It was on WGN yesterday, but with the White Sox crew
RF DeJesus
LF Johnson
SS Castro
1B LaHair
C Soto
3B Stewart
2B Barney
CF Campana
P Dempster
I can just see the Brewers pitchers quaking in fear.
lineup today
RF DeJesus
LF Johnson
SS Castro
1B LaHair
C Geo
3B Stewart
2B Barney
CF Campana
P Dempster
Maybe we’ll get BJax later in the game. At least we’ll get our first look at Stewart
coke to act
@ Berselius:
(dying laughing) really?
I was hoping we’d get to see Greinke today.
@ Berselius:
Robert Downey, Jr. agrees.
Having Dan Snyder for an owner is karmic retribution for keeping a virulently racist team name.
Some NFL owner needs to change their name to the White Trash Express. St. Louis would be perfect. I know white trash is more about economics though. St. Louis Rednecks? Oh wait, that name is already being used in MLB.
It’s pretty fucking sad that the amount of derogatory names for whites is limited and none of them are hurtful. It wouldn’t be sad if that were true of all other races, but it’s not.
mb21 wrote:
The Bears could always change their name to the Illinois Nazis
@ Berselius:
I hate Illinois Nazis.
I did a silly mashup last night. Some complained about Byrd being in there, but I really like that pic of Byrd and someone needs to play the grizzled veteran on his last legs anyway.
@ mb21:
I think the NFL should force the ‘Skins to change their name to something more reflective of the DC metro area. Like the Washington Carpetbaggers. Or the Grafters.
re: Soriano, I read a bit on ESPN Chicago yesterday that he had changed his batting stance and that seems to be contributing to his hot early spring, though at the same time, he’s also teeing off against pitchers who probably are working on stuff. So take from that what you will. I know he’s a sunk cost etc but I still like Sori and hope he at least stays above .300 OBP before he gets dumped one way or the other.
“Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2013 Washington Carpetbaggers! Now even more beholden to their corporate masters!”
@ Rice Cube:
He’s needed to tweak his plate mechanics for a while now. He’s always had super quick hands, and his plate mechanics were built around letting the ball travel deeper in the zone, because he could still get around on it. Some of that bat speed is gone now, and a change was in order.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I like the sound of Washington Lobbyists
I think Newt has that one reserved for the moon colony’s NFL franchise
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I always assumed it was a Nebulous Bankroller to be Named Later
@ Rice Cube:
That’s awesome RC
In relation to your conversation about batting average, I saw a link to a MLB Network clip of one of the BtBS guys talking about clutch, which also linked to this article:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/1/11/2693497/the-more-powerful-the-hitter-the-less-clutch-they-are-no-really
@ Rice Cube:
I think that has to do with power hitters striking out more. Putting the ball in play more frequently will lead to some runs that are otherwise not scored. The downside of that is that guys with power tend to create more runs overall so it’s not like you want your power hitters going up there trying to slap at the ball.
@ mb21:
But I think the point of the “clutch” numbers is that the power hitters’ raw numbers get worse in “clutch” situations.
For instance (to cherry-pick an extreme case to make a point): Sosa’s OPS was .820 in high-leverage situations, but .882 in high-leverage situations. Mark Grace was .858 in high-leverage and .792 in low leverage. This is not about the hitting style producing better outcomes, but real differences in how well they hit.
Word from Hobbitton: Sveum says DeJesus will lead off, Adolfo will hit 4th or 5th
@ ACT:
Couldn’t that still have something to do with strikeouts (BABIP)? It’s hard for me to believe that as a group power hitters are just naturally worse in certain situations. I would think this is explained by a number of factors and perhaps most importantly how a pitcher is being careful with power hitters in many situations with open bases.
This might get interesting.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/why_pecota_is_inot_i_deadly_accurate/
@ Berselius:
Should I be thrilled or should I (dying laughing)?
Washington Shit Shovelers?
I think Lake has actually taken a couple free passes so far this spring which is a good sign.
Watching the game yesterday two things stood out. Junior Lake is enormous. Steve Clevenger seemed small, with shrunken shoulders.
Maybe Sori will be one of those rare guys who has a second surge late in his career. I’m going to go ahead and bet large sums of money on this possibility.
@ GW:
Everything I’ve read says Lake will be way too big to stick at SS.
@ mb21:
So…3B or outfield?
@ mb21:
I think it will be interesting to see how much the regime change affects individual approaches.
GW wrote:
I thought Clevenger was a middle infielder when I saw him yesterday
Muskat:
@ Berselius:
He must have really been disappointed that he missed Buntfest.
I thought DeJesus looked like Tyler Colvin at first and was wondering why the fuck Colvin was leading off. (dying laughing)
There goes the no-hitter.
@ mb21:
That’s because DeJesus is not objectively hot.
C’mon, Rami…bunt that shit.
Just weird seeing Ramirez in a Brewers uniform.
He should’ve bunted.
@ mb21:
I agree. That GIDP probably made Cub Nation happy though.
If Starlin Castro threw the same way Gonzalez did on that it would have been 3 errors. How the hell do you get to the point where you’re accurate on that type of throw?
I thought the cubs retired It’s a Way Of Life, but there it is on my tv screen (single game tickets ad).
LaError
Nice throw
@ mb21:
They scored that an infield hit. It could have gone either way.
Tony Campana has to do 20 pushups now.
@ Rice Cube:
He can do that just as fast as he can run.
baseball ——> Starlin’s bitch
Well, that was nice to see. Excellent work, Starlin.
Paul Sullivan just blocked Julie on twitter for no reason. (dying laughing)
Is this Rami’s first ST game, or what? MLB shows his BA as .000
@ mb21:
Paul Sullivan is a F-15 pilot racer with tiger’s blood in his veins. WINNING.
@ josh:
BA now has an “perceived effort” component that subtracts .300 from Ramirez’ batting average. David Eckstein, conversely, gets adjusted up .500.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Oh I see. So Soriano has basically had a hit in every at-bat, then?
@ josh:
Yes, but he stood in the batter’s box and admired half of them, so those don’t count.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Swinging takes effort, man.
@ Rice Cube:
False.
Barney’s been working out.
Should’ve called for the squeeze.
Darwin Barney is the best shape of his life. .260/.330/.369 here we come!
I guess Barney had to try to go, but that looked ugly.
@ Rice Cube:
He should have tackled the catcher.
@ ACT:
Yeah, I really wanted to see an asskicking this early in spring training (dying laughing)
From The Heckler:
Terrible at bat by Starlin. Release the bum already.
@ ACT:
Trade him for Hanley and flip him for Alcides Escobar
Phil Rogers adds some vague confirmation of the Soler to Cubs for $27m rumor
@ Berselius:
He should find out how many years it’s rumored for too.
Oooh oooh oooh, leave that guy in and see if he can get the cycle!
@ Rice Cube:
It’s not a rumor. He has a source.
Ah, so that’s why Tony lost in Buntfest.
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2012/03/rick-sutcliffe-rips-hendryquade-in-cubs-camp/
I thought Rogers was one of the first with the original Soler rumor.
Suburban kid wrote:
I thought it was someone with CBS
Heads up baserunning? What team is this?
Does Soler have citizenship yet?
I award that bunt by Tony C. 0 points.
@ ACT:
…and may God have mercy on his soul.
Berselius wrote:
it has come up often enough that it seems to have some truth behind it. also, i would be shocked if another team would top 27M for the guy.
Rice Cube wrote:
WTF
This good baserunning stuff is going to spoil me.
Even more heads-up baserunning on display. Nice to see. Now DeWitt needs to get picked off second (dying laughing)
@ Suburban kid:
I was under the impression that he needed to acquire DR citizenship before MLB could run the paperwork to declare him a free agent.
So Cespedes homered.
Rice Cube wrote:
asian-latin hybrid?
@ mb21:
@ mb21:
How about the Buffalo Crackers? Those that don’t like the derogatory meaning can call them the Chips. Makes as much sense as the Bills.
Rice Cube wrote:
Me too. Certainly he isn’t the player he once was, but I like that he doesn’t make excuses.
@ GW:
My son actually is (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
Rice Cuba?
Coleman’s fastball ranged from 91 to 94 mph. That’s how you know the gun was hot.
@ Rice Cube:
The DR just hands out citizenship if you ask for it?
Maybe they have a policy of giving it to Cuban defectors, I don’t know. I was under the impression he needed to gain residency in a non-Cuba country — didn’t think he needed to acquire a new nationality.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
USA ——————————-> 47 states
MB21 ————————————> foreigner
@ Suburban kid:
That’s what Cespedes did and what I read Soler was likely to do, unless he decided to get citizenship somewhere else.
@ Rice Cube:
I believe Soler just needs to establish residency, not gain citizenship.
Rice Cube wrote:
Yeah, you don’t really “decide” to get citizenship someplace. You have to be eligible for it.
@ Suburban kid:
It’s just states that vote for Newt. Not a fan of Santorum, but Newt is a piece of shit and everybody knows it.
@ mb21:
Yeah I just remembered it was Newt not Santorum. I had forgotten about Newt (dying laughing)
@ Suburban kid:
You are correct. But I’m going to eat dinner anyway.
@ GW:
We can go with that.
Dammit, why can’t mlb.com just show all the games for free? Hell, I’d even be willing to sit through a few commercials.
A few observations I made from getting to watch a game:
Junior Lake is huge. And hey, he’s taken a few walks I hear.
Darwin Barney has put on beef. Dude got his swol on this offseason.
http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago-cubs/cubs-talk/Block-out-the-noise-Starlin-Castro-gives?blockID=667358&feedID=4901
I remember two years ago feeling horrified when Ramirez went down with that shoulder injury. I’ve never gotten the Ramirez hate. He struggled in the season after his injury then bounced back in a big way last year. Why do fans bad mouth him? I really don’t get it. To be honest, I understand the Z hate more, because I remember being frustrated on days when he would melt down after he didn’t get a hit or something. He always seemed frustratingly volatile to me. But Ramirez, I don’t get it.
http://www.salon.com/2012/03/11/madness_of_march_ncaa_gets_paid_players_dont/
Chris Carpenter (StL) ————> bulging disc, probably not ready for opening day
Lineup today (game on WGN at 2 CT, I guess they’re somehow ignoring stupid daylight savings)
RF DeJesus
2B Baker
SS Castro
3B DeWitt
CF Byrd
LF Johnson
C Castillo
1B Rizzo
P Garza
When the Red Sox played the Cardinals in FLorida the other day, the Cards’ PA announcer introduced the Sox’s Chris Carpenter as “The Other Chris Carpenter”.
@ Suburban kid:
That’s a shockingly cool story.
Former Cub Ted Lilly starts for LAD today
Hm, from what I see the game is still at 2 CT, not 3.
Berselius wrote:
Wouldn’t that be 3 PM CDT?
@ Berselius:
Thank you for the information.
@ Suburban kid:
The Sox need to trade their Chris Carpenter to St. Lou. Then he’d be the third RHP with that name to pitch for the Cards.
I take that back; the first one was actually named “Cris.” http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpecr01.shtml
@ ACT:
Media lies.
Berselius wrote:
MLB Scoreboard says 3. That’s how it’s always been in past year anyway. 2 pm until DST and then 3 pm the rest of the way.
@ mb21:
AZ doesn’t observe DST, so I hope WGN knows that.
@ Rice in limbo:
Forgot about that. And I lived there for 2 years.
Buntfest Final Four = DeJesus, Beef Castle, Maholm and the formidable Casey Coleman
@ Rice in limbo:
One sort of fast guy and three guys who might get a combined 100 PAs.
@ Suburban kid:
That’s just the way it is.
@ mb21:
Their spring training broadcast schedule still says 2. As does my cable box.
mb21 wrote:
Len and Bob couldn’t figure it out yesterday. Bob, who always hustles and gives 100%, said he might be late today.
Berselius wrote:
I’m stupid. What do you expect?
Any chance the Orioles don’t keep Flaherty? He’d more than likely be the Cubs best 2nd baseman right now if they protected him.
New game thread: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/garza-and-cubs-vs-lilly-and-dodgers-for-3-innings-or-so.html