The past few years I've done posts for each player, but this year I'm going to do it by position. It's a little more than 9 weeks until the season starts so about one of these per week will get it done by the time the season starts. The starting catcher will be Geovany Soto and one of Welington Castillo or Steve Clevenger will be the primary back-up. I expect both back-ups to get some playing time and I'm guessing that's one position that will be determined in spring training by Dale Sveum. I've thought the back-up would be Castillo, but if I recall correctly, the projections might even favor Clevenger.
Soto had a fantastic rookie season in 2008 when he had a .371 wOBA. He followed that up with a .310 wOBA and bounced back to a .385 wOBA in 2010. He then reverted back last year and hit .316. That was close to a league average wOBA for what it's worth and he was worth 2.1 fWAR. Here are Soto's 2012 projections.
| Soto | PA | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| Bill James | 499 | 19 | .252 | .345 | .450 | .344 |
| RotoChamp | 497 | 18 | .251 | .344 | .437 | .342 |
| Fans (27) | 513 | 18 | .259 | .352 | .437 | .345 |
| ZiPS | 437 | 16 | .244 | .336 | .429 | .336 |
| Oliver | 466 | 16 | .236 | .327 | .408 | .324 |
| CAIRO | 399 | 14 | .245 | .337 | .430 | .337 |
| Avg | 469 | 17 | .248 | .340 | .432 | .338 |
Using a league average wOBA of .330, that's 2.5 WAR. He's been worth -13.3 runs on the bases in his career and -9.3 the last two. Let's add in a -4 runs baserunning projection lowering that 2.5 WAR to 2.1 WAR. He's probably about average in the field.
I was going to say that's really good offense for a catcher, but I'm kind of surprised how many good hitting catchers there were last season. Last season the following catchers had a wOBA higher than .338: Mike Napoli, Alex Avila, Miguel Montero, Carlos Santana, Yadier Molina, Brian McCann, Chris Iannetta, and Matt Wieters. The previous season Soto led all MLB catchers in wOBA. It seems he's really good one year and just average the next season.
The Cubs have two possible back-ups. The first of which is Welington Castillo and his available projections are shown below.
| Castillo | PA | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| RotoChamp | 159 | 15 | .227 | .270 | .387 | .287 |
| ZiPS | 377 | 12 | .243 | .294 | .395 | .299 |
| Oliver | 412 | 16 | .231 | .281 | .404 | .296 |
| CAIRO | 208 | 7 | .248 | .302 | .411 | .310 |
| Avg | 289 | 13 | .237 | .287 | .399 | .298 |
That's 0.5 WAR and it doesn't include defense or baserunning, which we don't know enough about yet. Steve Clevenger is the other potential back-up.
| Clevenger | PA | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| ZiPS | 454 | 4 | .272 | .322 | .369 | .308 |
| Oliver | 437 | 6 | .265 | .314 | .380 | .306 |
| CAIRO | 274 | 5 | .273 | .327 | .397 | .319 |
| Avg | 388 | 5 | .270 | .321 | .382 | .311 |
That's good for 1.2 WAR and like Castillo does not include defense or baserunning. Clevenger beats Castillo in each of the 3 similar projection systems. He's about 10 points of wOBA better in each of those 3. RotoChamp didn't have a projection for him and neither one were projected by Bill James or have enough Fans projections on Fanraphs.
Before you run and tell your grandma that the Cubs are projected to be 3.6 WAR behind the plate, those are only the playing time projections from each system. We need to come up with our own. Each position will get about 700 plate appearances. I think we can expect Soto to get 500, Clevenger 150 and Castillo 50.
| Player | PA | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | WAR |
| Soto | 500 | 18 | .248 | .340 | .432 | .338 | 2.3 |
| Clevenger | 150 | 2 | .270 | .321 | .382 | .311 | 0.4 |
| Castillo | 50 | 2 | .237 | .287 | .399 | .298 | 0.1 |
| Total | 700 | 22 | .252 | .332 | .419 | .329 | 2.8 |
Not bad. It's entirely possible that Soto beats his projections and is worth considerably more than 2.3 WAR. I wouldn't bet on it, but we've seen how good he can be in even numbered years.
IIRC Castillo has a good defensive repuation
I think he has a good arm, but is ridiculously slow, even for a catcher.
Well done on the PROJECTIONS series logo. I think the model for the image was Tyler Colvin.
Not as good as the logo for ACB’s Fan Poll series, though (dying laughing)
[img]http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/9176/fanpolllegends.jpg[/img]
Subject: FBI OFFICE GET BACK TO US IMMEDIATELY IF YOU DONT WANT US TO ARREST YOU AND JAIL YOU
Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2012 09:20:59 -0800
From: FBI OFFICE
Reply-To:
Attn: Beneficiary This is to inform you that we have have the warrant to arrest you if we dont hear from you immediately.
You are advice to download attachment link for more details for your own good if you dont want to go to jail.
Nate, I respect your music purism. The last few years I’ve just been going further and further back/more and more recent for discovering stuff to listen to. I enjoy the old timey shit. From my vantage point, anything recorded before 1957 just sounds totally authentic and non-pretentious. I’m sure it wasn’t the case back in the day. The Carter Family probably thought Jimmie Rodgers was totally showing off with all that yodeling shit.
I’ve been downloading tons of scratchy old MP3s from archive.org’s collection of 78rpm records. http://www.archive.org/details/78rpm If you browse by subject/keyword, you can find some old timey appalachian shit.
The same site coincidentally also has a massive live Dead collection: http://www.archive.org/details/GratefulDead
@ Suburban kid:
Archive.org is great. They don’t only have Grateful Dead, but also Furthur (who is Bob Weir and Phil Lesh from the Grateful Dead). Plus 90% of most other “jam” bands recordings if you are into that.
mb, a great band to check out is 7 Walkers. New Orleans funk/swamp music. Bill Kreutzman, Papa Mali, and George Porter Jr.
http://www.archive.org/details/7Walkers
@ Berselius:
I’ve read he has a very strong arm, but poor receiving skills. He’s also likely to be as bad on the bases as Soto.
Clevenger can play multiple positions and from I remember reading he’s about average defensively. I think he beats Castillo in ST and is the Cubs back-up next year.
I wasn’t aware Carlos Santana doubled as a catcher. That’s pretty impressive at the age of 64.
[img]http://cdn.gs.uproxx.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/pun-arkansas-school-for-the-deaf-leopards.jpg[/img]
@ WaLi:
[img]http://i.imgur.com/yV63x.gif[/img]
mb21 wrote:
Yeah, from what I remember his speed is Molina esque
mb21 wrote:
I’ll be surprised if it’s not Castillo. He’s always been rated higher than Clevenger, the scouts like him.
@ Dr. Aneus Taint:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Is Clevenger in anyone’s top 20? KG has Castillo at 3 and Clevenger doesn’t make the list.
@ Dr. Aneus Taint:
I deserved that. I’ll skip my meal between breakfast and brunch.
WaLi wrote:
Just make sure you don’t skip elevensies. It’s the most important meal of the day. Men’s Fitness agrees.
MO would get a kick out of this http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/1/31/2760816/buster-olney-gets-phenomenological-on-salvador-perez
@ dylanj:
I hope you enjoyed the Niners’ postseason run, dj, because it’s going to be a lot harder to come by next year.
@ Berselius:
I think the reason it’s Clevenger is that there’s still a slimmer of hope that Castillo could be an every day player. I also think we’ll see Clevenger out-hit Castillo in spring training and prove to be a better defender. He’s also a left-handed hitter so you can rest Soto against some of the tougher righties and you gain the platoon advantage.
I love this draft, dj:
http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/nfl-draft/163161-otcs-post-all-star-mock-13012/
@ Berselius:
I don’t think so, but Clevenger adds a lot more to the roster than Castillo does. Clevenger has played 3rd, 1st and could probably play some LF/RF. He could probably play some 2nd base in a pinch. Clevenger has a career .790 OPS to Castillo’s .753. Clevenger is a better hitter, better fielder and a better baserunner. The only thing Castillo has on Clevenger is a strong arm. It will be a disappointment if the Cubs choose Castillo as the back-up. I expect better from this organization considering the new front office. They can always leave Castillo behind and say they think he’s a starter. He never will be, but maybe some other organization would view him as one. It’s also possible one of those two go to Boston for compensation.
So tell me, dj, do you think Colin Kaepernick or Scott Tolzien is more likely to be the Niners QB in 2013?
@ mb21:
I think it will be Varitek.
@ Suburban kid:
Think so? Wouldn’t he have to be on the roster first? (dying laughing)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15937
Now this is a great chapter title:
Alex Smith
@ dylanj:
That wasn’t a choice.
What’s all this baseball shit doing on a cast-iron-polymerization/Grateful Dead blog? (dying laughing)
Srs though, good write-up. Cameron was talking on the fangraphs podcast yesterday about how catchers’ offense sometimes gets worse as their defense improves because they spend so much time practicing defense that they don’t have time to work on hitting anymore. Made me wonder if that might have happened to Soto since it does seem like his defense improved a bit last year even as his bat tanked.
but that’s who its going to be.
@ dylanj:
I agree he’s the most likely 2013 starter as of right now, but my question was who of the other two do you think is most likely.
Who besides Eli Manning is the most likely starting QB for the Giants this week?
@ mb21:
Phil Simms
I would guess the guy the used a 2 on. Upgrade the WR & CB position, add a power RB and give the offense a full year in the system and we will be back.
@ mb21:
Jared Lorenzen?
@ mb21:
Peyton Manning, not bothering to wear a disguise.
I’d be happy to have you come to my Super Bowl party, MB, but we’ll be at a bar.
[img]http://cdn.jockular.com/assets/images/2012/01/4f281b3a1289a.png[/img]
Why are we naming quarterbacks, seemingly at random?
Peter Tom Willis.
Bobby Hebert
Jim McMahon wearing a toupee.
Jared Zabranski
Ruth Bader Ginsburg
@ dylanj:
Lots of FA WRs this year. Colston, Bowe or Vincent Jackson and re-signing Rogers should be priority.
Locking up those two guys would allow us to go BPA in the draft. As of now, there will be a lot of good value at positions of need at No. 30.
I miss the Daily Facepalm.
Rice Cube wrote:
.
The Projections logo is excellent, but the baseball in the lower right looks like two kidneys being mashed together.
@ Aisle424:
I wonder what the motive was. Maybe they were doing a study of people in a party atmosphere?
@ Rice Cube:
I think he is just shy, to the point where he even needs to plan his bathroom visits, but doesn’t want to miss out on all the excitement.
New Facepalm:
http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/daily-facepalm-1-31-12-um.html
Because we said they’d be daily, not because there’s anything new to report.