Marmol followed up his stellar 3 WAR 2010 season a much more heart-attacky 2011 season. Marmol's ten blown saves led all of baseball last year (tied with LAAoLAoDoQEoA's Jordan Walden). Marmol walks (and hits) a ton of batters, and continued that trend in 2011. However, his K/9 dropped to a "mere" 12 batters per nine, down from the record-breaking 15.99 of 2010. Marmol's HR rate also jumped up, as he gave up 7.5% HR/FB as opposed to the microscopic numbers he posted in '09 and '10. That's still quite good, but his HR-precenting skills were going to regress at some point. Speaking of regression, Marmol's BABIP over the past two years has hovered up around .300, which seems normal until you consider what an extreme fly ball/pop up inducing pitcher he is. One thing that looks like a blip in his otherwise stellar 2010 numbers was his 6.3% IFFB%, which had been well into the double digits previously, even reaching as high as 20% in 2009. His 2011 numbers also showed a lower number (9%), which could mean that batters are making better contact off of him.
Carlos Marmol got the pitchers equivalent of "best shape of his life" going into spring training, namely, the "we've made his delivery smoother" cliche. Not that spring stats mean much of anything, but Marmol has seemed just as wild as before, and has even looked more hittable. Most of that could probably be attributed to him focusing on locating his fastball, which he needs to mix in with his devastating slider. I don't think Marmol needs that much work on the slider because even when it's "on" he probably still doesn't know where the hell it is going. Marmol suffered a hand injury a week or so but all signs pointed to it being cramps. He got an MRI for it…on his neck, which was also sore. Could be something to look out for going forward.
With this projection, Marmol is worth 6.37 RAR, which combined with his closer role nets 1.31 WAR. He's getting more expensive, and I wonder if the Cubs would be able to move him for much of anything right now. Thank goodness for the Proven Closer surtax, though it's too bad Ed Wade isn't around to trade some of the Astros' copious reserves of nothing at the Cubs to get him.
Previous pitcher projections: