We've already published the projections for some of the backups along the way. Jeff Baker's was posted with the infield backups and the two possible back-up catchers were published in another article. Without commentary, the others are below.
| Projection | Name | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA |
| Guru | Blake DeWitt | 351 | 82 | 5 | 26 | 55 | .256 | .313 | .376 | .305 |
| ZiPS | Blake DeWitt | 430 | 100 | 8 | 39 | 68 | .256 | .326 | .399 | .319 |
| Dav-Marcel | Blake DeWitt | 33 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | .243 | .312 | .370 | .309 |
| Steamer | Blake DeWitt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .261 | .328 | .397 | .329 |
| Average | Blake DeWitt | 204 | 47 | 4 | 17 | 32 | .254 | .320 | .386 | .316 |
| CAIRO | Dave Sappelt | 353 | 88 | 6 | 25 | 55 | .274 | .326 | .403 | .320 |
| Guru | Dave Sappelt | 186 | 38 | 1 | 13 | 35 | .228 | .277 | .316 | .264 |
| PECOTA | Dave Sappelt | 233 | 61 | 3 | 12 | 36 | .276 | .312 | .386 | .305 |
| Oliver | Dave Sappelt | 604 | 151 | 8 | 34 | 90 | .272 | .313 | .385 | .306 |
| RotoChamp | Dave Sappelt | 128 | 33 | 0 | 8 | 18 | .275 | .320 | .350 | .297 |
| Dav-Marcel | Dave Sappelt | 71 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 10 | .267 | .313 | .375 | .307 |
| Steamer | Dave Sappelt | 117 | 29 | 2 | 9 | 17 | .278 | .331 | .412 | .334 |
| Marcel | Dave Sappelt | 259 | 60 | 4 | 20 | 43 | .259 | .322 | .366 | .310 |
| Average | Dave Sappelt | 244 | 60 | 3 | 16 | 38 | .266 | .314 | .374 | .306 |
| Steamer | Joe Mather | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .228 | .285 | .362 | .294 |
| ZiPS | Joe Mather | 385 | 82 | 8 | 27 | 81 | .234 | .290 | .366 | .287 |
| Marcel | Joe Mather | 248 | 54 | 5 | 18 | 50 | .240 | .298 | .369 | .291 |
| Average | Joe Mather | 317 | 68 | 7 | 23 | 66 | .237 | .294 | .368 | .289 |
| CAIRO | Reed Johnson | 226 | 58 | 4 | 10 | 47 | .280 | .329 | .423 | .328 |
| Guru | Reed Johnson | 214 | 48 | 4 | 11 | 44 | .247 | .301 | .356 | .292 |
| PECOTA | Reed Johnson | 203 | 51 | 3 | 9 | 41 | .265 | .313 | .373 | .302 |
| Bill James | Reed Johnson | 281 | 72 | 4 | 12 | 65 | .268 | .323 | .383 | .299 |
| RotoChamp | Reed Johnson | 257 | 66 | 5 | 7 | 62 | .264 | .311 | .408 | .315 |
| Dav-Marcel | Reed Johnson | 32 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 7 | .257 | .307 | .381 | .302 |
| Steamer | Reed Johnson | 102 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 23 | .256 | .307 | .377 | .310 |
| Marcel | Reed Johnson | 354 | 87 | 7 | 16 | 75 | .269 | .319 | .480 | .319 |
| Average | Reed Johnson | 209 | 52 | 4 | 9 | 45 | .263 | .314 | .397 | .308 |
| Guru | Tony Campana | 203 | 44 | 2 | 12 | 42 | .235 | .281 | .296 | .260 |
| ZiPS | Tony Campana | 478 | 123 | 1 | 27 | 95 | .273 | .317 | .380 | .290 |
| PECOTA | Tony Campana | 130 | 33 | 0 | 7 | 25 | .265 | .302 | .324 | .279 |
| Oliver | Tony Campana | 103 | 25 | 0 | 5 | 19 | .262 | .301 | .317 | .277 |
| Bill James | Tony Campana | 143 | 39 | 0 | 8 | 24 | .289 | .333 | .341 | .302 |
| RotoChamp | Tony Campana | 212 | 59 | 2 | 12 | 41 | .295 | .338 | .365 | .318 |
| Dav-Marcel | Tony Campana | 199 | 47 | 1 | 12 | 37 | .250 | .300 | .298 | .273 |
| Steamer | Tony Campana | 117 | 28 | 1 | 7 | 23 | .261 | .307 | .336 | .297 |
| Marcel | Tony Campana | 278 | 66 | 5 | 20 | 51 | .262 | .320 | .357 | .305 |
| Average | Tony Campana | 207 | 52 | 1 | 12 | 40 | .266 | .311 | .335 | .289 |
Later on we'll use our playing time estimates and include a WAR projections, but these guys are mostly just replacement level players.
Comments
bubblesdachimp wrote:
Pretty sure the Braves aren’t going to give up a good prospect to acquire Byrd. Byrd has value, but not all that much value.
mb21Quote Reply
So, who would you take in a Campana v. Mather contest to be on the team?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Whoever has the higher batting average the final 9 days of spring training.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Maybe a low-A guy with upside?
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Now I can’t tell if you’re joking. Basically it doesn’t matter?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I’m not sure what level he’d be in, but I’d say a B prospect if you pay all of Byrd’s contract.
mb21Quote Reply
@ josh:
I’m definitely joking. I couldn’t care less what their batting averages are over 9 games or 162 games. I’d take Campana. About the same projection and Campana can fucking fly.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Might be worth it. The Cubs can afford to eat the money.
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
It seems like a shame to lose his speed. Mather seems more flexible on defense, but sometimes utility guys don’t play any one position particularly well.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I’d probably keep him, but it would depend on what you could get. My guess is that if Byrd had much value he’d already have been traded. He’ll likely be moving to LF or RF in June anyway.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Good point. It’s possible his value increases when Nate McClouth has his annual 2-month trip to the DL.
joshQuote Reply
Uh, how were those averages figured? Blake’s average is lower than any of his projections.
ACTQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I’d take Mather, because he can play 3B. If we’re just talking about OF it would be Campana.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Kind of what I was thinking. A guy that can play 3B and the OF, assuming he can actually play centerfield as he did in the game yesterday, that could be valuable, given that his average and wOBA are rougly the same as Campana’s.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Who advanced further in the bunting contest?
GBTSQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
http://www.whoadvancedfurtherinthebuntingcontest.com
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Thanks, ACT. I’m not sure why DeWitt’s was calculated wrong, but I did it manually and updated it. I’ll look through the others here.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/why_do_great_players_have_the_most_fragile_of_egos/
BerseliusQuote Reply
The rest of them are right. Thanks a lot, ACT. I never would have caught that as I didn’t look over the numbers for this post.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
That’s a million dollar domain idea, b.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Sounds like a deal to me. Just send me the million dollars and I’ll sign the rights to the name over to you.
BerseliusQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
pedantic’d
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I’m assuming the Cubs will have Baker and DeWitt on the roster. How many guys do you need who can play 3rd base? If you’re carrying Mather then there’s no reason to carry DeWitt.
mb21Quote Reply
Now that I think about it, the better question is who you’d rather have: Blake DeWitt or Joe Mather.
I’d take DeWitt.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I’d take Mather over DeWitt too, but I’m a little too fixated on the platoon advantage stuff at 1B/3B. Cubs have too many LHB in the infield.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Just sent it to your paypal account.
mb21Quote Reply
Maybe I’ll change my mind once we do the platoon split projections.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Here are the CAIRO split projections: http://obstructedview.net/projections/platoon-splits-projections.html
Mater wasn’t included though.
mb21Quote Reply
Does anyone have any ideas of where to find out MLB team rankings for amateur draft spending year by year??
ABQuote Reply
Stewart’s projection vs lefties is .298, which I’m guessing Mather would beat.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Mather’s CAIRO projected splits
wOBA vsL vsR
.316 .326 .308
mb21Quote Reply
Yeah, he beats it handily. I wonder how his defense grades out at 3b.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ AB:
All I’ve found is a top 10 list on baseball america. I’ll dig around.
mb21Quote Reply
Wasn’t that difficult: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2011/2612233.html
mb21Quote Reply
@ AB:
I’m not sure if you need a subscription to read that article or not. If you do, I can email you the table. Just let me know.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
CAIRO was one of the more optimistic projections for Mather for what it’s worht.
mb21Quote Reply
CAIRO”s projected UZR for Mather is basically 0 at every position so that doesn’t do us much good. If he’s average at 1st base, he’s pretty bad at 3rd. Then again, if he’s average at 3rd, he’s awesome at 1st. Who knows?
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
His projection above is .289, without CAIRO factored in. With the platooning boost that should put him ahead of Stewart, though not by that much.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Yeah, I wasn’t going to go back through the projections and look for Joe Mather’s projections. I just added the one I had and the two Fangraphs had. Good enough for me for someone like Mather. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
Shawn Camp ——–> Cubs, minor league deal. Was recently released by Seattle
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
In 9.2 September innings he allowed just 4 hits and a .93 ERA. He also won 5 games.
Shawn Camp ——–> rotation
mb21Quote Reply
Batters only had a .457 OPS against him in September so he should probably start opening day. Cubs best vs the Nats best. Game of the century.
mb21Quote Reply
thanks
no problems accessing it
ABQuote Reply
@ AB:
I’m wondering what you had in mind with the data.
mb21Quote Reply
Frank martin ===> Gamecocks
Bubbles====> Happy
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
No one else =====> Cares
joshQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
I told my main bitch. She was unimpressed.
BerseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[spoiler title=”Cubs Bench”]Crappy white guys.[/spoiler]
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
[spoiler title=”Re: Cubs bench”]Scrappy white guys[/spoiler]
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
[spoiler]Dave Sappelt isn’t white. Still crappy, though.[/spoiler]
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
[spoiler]Dave Sappelt isn’t going to make the roster[/spoiler]
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
[spoiler]That’s racist.[/spoiler]
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://www.vulture.com/2012/03/michael-mann-david-milch-interview-luck-horses-cancellation.html?imw=Y
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
Campana is so fast he can pinch run for Soto and Lehair in the same inning, TOOTBLAN for both, and be in the dugout before Hunter Wendlestadt can say “what happened?”
/game pace quickened
SkipVBQuote Reply
This is my first time looking at OV on my phone and it’s funny that the content resizes better after I’ve signed in. Also the helper buttons for text format are here and don’t show up on my laptop.
Looks good though. Nice work.
Maybe the sizing issues are bc I’m on a Blackberry. (Let antique smartphone jokes commence now.)
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
If you use IE then you don’t get format helper boxes. mb hates IE more than he hates AVG (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
P@ WaLi:
It’s the Joe Morgan (announcer) of web browsers.
MishQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Wow. He must REALLY hate IE. I use Firefox.
@ Mish:
I think you’re being a tad unfair to Joe Morgan. (Dying laughing)
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Wow. He must REALLY hate IE. I use Firefox.
@ Mish:
I think you’re being a tad unfair to Joe Morgan. (Dying laughing)
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Wow. He must REALLY hate IE. I use Firefox.
Mish-
I think you’re being a tad unfair to Joe Morgan. (Dying laughing)
SkipVBQuote Reply
Wow. He must REALLY hate IE. I use Firefox.
Mish-
I think you’re being a tad unfair to Joe Morgan. (Dying laughing)
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Wow. He must REALLY hate IE. I use Firefox.
Mish-
I think you’re being a tad unfair to Joe Morgan.
(Dying laughing)
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Wow. He must REALLY hate IE. I use Firefox.
Mish
I think you’re being a tad unfair to Joe Morgan.
(Dying laughing)
SkipVBQuote Reply
Sweet ride, Mish: http://humor.gunaxin.com/batman-doesnt-police-stop-visiting-children-hospital/117166
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Trever Miller ——–> released
BerseliusQuote Reply
Cubs offseason in review
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/03/offseason-in-review-chicago-cubs.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
Do you have javascript enabled? I can’t think of any other reason why the comment buttons (b, i, link, img, quote) wouldn’t show up in Firefox. I have no idea what’s up with IE, but by the time we figured it out IE would change some shit and it wouldn’t work.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
That sucks. I was hoping we’d see a rotation of Casey Coleman, James Russell, Shawn Camp, F7 and Scott Maine.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I’m not sure how that changes your expectations.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I think F7 would still be the 4th starter.
mb21Quote Reply
We should start a “How Long Will JefF7 Be A SP?” pool. Winner gets a bottle of Cookie’s.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
89.3% of the comments on this blog are summed up in this image:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Lwaxana Troi?
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Not objectively hot.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
face ^ palm
http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/daily-facepalm-2-26-12.html
BerseliusQuote Reply