We've already published the projections for some of the backups along the way. Jeff Baker's was posted with the infield backups and the two possible back-up catchers were published in another article. Without commentary, the others are below.
| Projection | Name | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA |
| Guru | Blake DeWitt | 351 | 82 | 5 | 26 | 55 | .256 | .313 | .376 | .305 |
| ZiPS | Blake DeWitt | 430 | 100 | 8 | 39 | 68 | .256 | .326 | .399 | .319 |
| Dav-Marcel | Blake DeWitt | 33 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | .243 | .312 | .370 | .309 |
| Steamer | Blake DeWitt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .261 | .328 | .397 | .329 |
| Average | Blake DeWitt | 204 | 47 | 4 | 17 | 32 | .254 | .320 | .386 | .316 |
| CAIRO | Dave Sappelt | 353 | 88 | 6 | 25 | 55 | .274 | .326 | .403 | .320 |
| Guru | Dave Sappelt | 186 | 38 | 1 | 13 | 35 | .228 | .277 | .316 | .264 |
| PECOTA | Dave Sappelt | 233 | 61 | 3 | 12 | 36 | .276 | .312 | .386 | .305 |
| Oliver | Dave Sappelt | 604 | 151 | 8 | 34 | 90 | .272 | .313 | .385 | .306 |
| RotoChamp | Dave Sappelt | 128 | 33 | 0 | 8 | 18 | .275 | .320 | .350 | .297 |
| Dav-Marcel | Dave Sappelt | 71 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 10 | .267 | .313 | .375 | .307 |
| Steamer | Dave Sappelt | 117 | 29 | 2 | 9 | 17 | .278 | .331 | .412 | .334 |
| Marcel | Dave Sappelt | 259 | 60 | 4 | 20 | 43 | .259 | .322 | .366 | .310 |
| Average | Dave Sappelt | 244 | 60 | 3 | 16 | 38 | .266 | .314 | .374 | .306 |
| Steamer | Joe Mather | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .228 | .285 | .362 | .294 |
| ZiPS | Joe Mather | 385 | 82 | 8 | 27 | 81 | .234 | .290 | .366 | .287 |
| Marcel | Joe Mather | 248 | 54 | 5 | 18 | 50 | .240 | .298 | .369 | .291 |
| Average | Joe Mather | 317 | 68 | 7 | 23 | 66 | .237 | .294 | .368 | .289 |
| CAIRO | Reed Johnson | 226 | 58 | 4 | 10 | 47 | .280 | .329 | .423 | .328 |
| Guru | Reed Johnson | 214 | 48 | 4 | 11 | 44 | .247 | .301 | .356 | .292 |
| PECOTA | Reed Johnson | 203 | 51 | 3 | 9 | 41 | .265 | .313 | .373 | .302 |
| Bill James | Reed Johnson | 281 | 72 | 4 | 12 | 65 | .268 | .323 | .383 | .299 |
| RotoChamp | Reed Johnson | 257 | 66 | 5 | 7 | 62 | .264 | .311 | .408 | .315 |
| Dav-Marcel | Reed Johnson | 32 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 7 | .257 | .307 | .381 | .302 |
| Steamer | Reed Johnson | 102 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 23 | .256 | .307 | .377 | .310 |
| Marcel | Reed Johnson | 354 | 87 | 7 | 16 | 75 | .269 | .319 | .480 | .319 |
| Average | Reed Johnson | 209 | 52 | 4 | 9 | 45 | .263 | .314 | .397 | .308 |
| Guru | Tony Campana | 203 | 44 | 2 | 12 | 42 | .235 | .281 | .296 | .260 |
| ZiPS | Tony Campana | 478 | 123 | 1 | 27 | 95 | .273 | .317 | .380 | .290 |
| PECOTA | Tony Campana | 130 | 33 | 0 | 7 | 25 | .265 | .302 | .324 | .279 |
| Oliver | Tony Campana | 103 | 25 | 0 | 5 | 19 | .262 | .301 | .317 | .277 |
| Bill James | Tony Campana | 143 | 39 | 0 | 8 | 24 | .289 | .333 | .341 | .302 |
| RotoChamp | Tony Campana | 212 | 59 | 2 | 12 | 41 | .295 | .338 | .365 | .318 |
| Dav-Marcel | Tony Campana | 199 | 47 | 1 | 12 | 37 | .250 | .300 | .298 | .273 |
| Steamer | Tony Campana | 117 | 28 | 1 | 7 | 23 | .261 | .307 | .336 | .297 |
| Marcel | Tony Campana | 278 | 66 | 5 | 20 | 51 | .262 | .320 | .357 | .305 |
| Average | Tony Campana | 207 | 52 | 1 | 12 | 40 | .266 | .311 | .335 | .289 |
Later on we'll use our playing time estimates and include a WAR projections, but these guys are mostly just replacement level players.
bubblesdachimp wrote:
Pretty sure the Braves aren’t going to give up a good prospect to acquire Byrd. Byrd has value, but not all that much value.
So, who would you take in a Campana v. Mather contest to be on the team?
@ josh:
Whoever has the higher batting average the final 9 days of spring training.
@ mb21:
Maybe a low-A guy with upside?
@ mb21:
Now I can’t tell if you’re joking. Basically it doesn’t matter?
@ josh:
I’m not sure what level he’d be in, but I’d say a B prospect if you pay all of Byrd’s contract.
@ josh:
I’m definitely joking. I couldn’t care less what their batting averages are over 9 games or 162 games. I’d take Campana. About the same projection and Campana can fucking fly.
@ mb21:
Might be worth it. The Cubs can afford to eat the money.
@ mb21:
It seems like a shame to lose his speed. Mather seems more flexible on defense, but sometimes utility guys don’t play any one position particularly well.
@ josh:
I’d probably keep him, but it would depend on what you could get. My guess is that if Byrd had much value he’d already have been traded. He’ll likely be moving to LF or RF in June anyway.
@ mb21:
Good point. It’s possible his value increases when Nate McClouth has his annual 2-month trip to the DL.
Uh, how were those averages figured? Blake’s average is lower than any of his projections.
@ mb21:
I’d take Mather, because he can play 3B. If we’re just talking about OF it would be Campana.
@ Berselius:
Kind of what I was thinking. A guy that can play 3B and the OF, assuming he can actually play centerfield as he did in the game yesterday, that could be valuable, given that his average and wOBA are rougly the same as Campana’s.
@ josh:
Who advanced further in the bunting contest?
GBTS wrote:
http://www.whoadvancedfurtherinthebuntingcontest.com
@ ACT:
Thanks, ACT. I’m not sure why DeWitt’s was calculated wrong, but I did it manually and updated it. I’ll look through the others here.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/why_do_great_players_have_the_most_fragile_of_egos/
The rest of them are right. Thanks a lot, ACT. I never would have caught that as I didn’t look over the numbers for this post.
@ Berselius:
That’s a million dollar domain idea, b.
mb21 wrote:
Sounds like a deal to me. Just send me the million dollars and I’ll sign the rights to the name over to you.
mb21 wrote:
\pedantic’d
@ Berselius:
I’m assuming the Cubs will have Baker and DeWitt on the roster. How many guys do you need who can play 3rd base? If you’re carrying Mather then there’s no reason to carry DeWitt.
Now that I think about it, the better question is who you’d rather have: Blake DeWitt or Joe Mather.
I’d take DeWitt.
@ mb21:
I’d take Mather over DeWitt too, but I’m a little too fixated on the platoon advantage stuff at 1B/3B. Cubs have too many LHB in the infield.
@ Berselius:
Just sent it to your paypal account.
Maybe I’ll change my mind once we do the platoon split projections.
@ Berselius:
Here are the CAIRO split projections: http://www.obstructedview.net/projections/platoon-splits-projections.html
Mater wasn’t included though.
Does anyone have any ideas of where to find out MLB team rankings for amateur draft spending year by year??
Stewart’s projection vs lefties is .298, which I’m guessing Mather would beat.
Mather’s CAIRO projected splits
wOBA vsL vsR
.316 .326 .308
Yeah, he beats it handily. I wonder how his defense grades out at 3b.
@ AB:
All I’ve found is a top 10 list on baseball america. I’ll dig around.
Wasn’t that difficult: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2011/2612233.html
@ AB:
I’m not sure if you need a subscription to read that article or not. If you do, I can email you the table. Just let me know.
@ Berselius:
CAIRO was one of the more optimistic projections for Mather for what it’s worht.
CAIRO”s projected UZR for Mather is basically 0 at every position so that doesn’t do us much good. If he’s average at 1st base, he’s pretty bad at 3rd. Then again, if he’s average at 3rd, he’s awesome at 1st. Who knows?
mb21 wrote:
His projection above is .289, without CAIRO factored in. With the platooning boost that should put him ahead of Stewart, though not by that much.
Berselius wrote:
Yeah, I wasn’t going to go back through the projections and look for Joe Mather’s projections. I just added the one I had and the two Fangraphs had. Good enough for me for someone like Mather. (dying laughing)
Shawn Camp ——–> Cubs, minor league deal. Was recently released by Seattle
@ Berselius:
In 9.2 September innings he allowed just 4 hits and a .93 ERA. He also won 5 games.
Shawn Camp ——–> rotation
Batters only had a .457 OPS against him in September so he should probably start opening day. Cubs best vs the Nats best. Game of the century.
thanks
no problems accessing it
@ AB:
I’m wondering what you had in mind with the data.
Frank martin ===> Gamecocks
Bubbles====> Happy
@ bubblesdachimp:
No one else =====> Cares
@ bubblesdachimp:
I told my main bitch. She was unimpressed.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
[spoiler title="Cubs Bench"]Crappy white guys.[/spoiler]
@ GBTS:
[spoiler title="Re: Cubs bench"]Scrappy white guys[/spoiler]
@ GBTS:
[spoiler]Dave Sappelt isn’t white. Still crappy, though.[/spoiler]
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
[spoiler]Dave Sappelt isn’t going to make the roster[/spoiler]
@ Berselius:
[spoiler]That’s racist.[/spoiler]
http://www.vulture.com/2012/03/michael-mann-david-milch-interview-luck-horses-cancellation.html?imw=Y
@ mb21:
Campana is so fast he can pinch run for Soto and Lehair in the same inning, TOOTBLAN for both, and be in the dugout before Hunter Wendlestadt can say “what happened?”
/game pace quickened
This is my first time looking at OV on my phone and it’s funny that the content resizes better after I’ve signed in. Also the helper buttons for text format are here and don’t show up on my laptop.
Looks good though. Nice work.
Maybe the sizing issues are bc I’m on a Blackberry. (Let antique smartphone jokes commence now.)
@ SkipVB:
If you use IE then you don’t get format helper boxes. mb hates IE more than he hates AVG (dying laughing)
P@ WaLi:
It’s the Joe Morgan (announcer) of web browsers.
@ WaLi:
Wow. He must REALLY hate IE. I use Firefox.
@ Mish:
I think you’re being a tad unfair to Joe Morgan. (Dying laughing)
@ WaLi:
Wow. He must REALLY hate IE. I use Firefox.
@ Mish:
I think you’re being a tad unfair to Joe Morgan. (Dying laughing)
@ WaLi:
Wow. He must REALLY hate IE. I use Firefox.
Mish-
I think you’re being a tad unfair to Joe Morgan. (Dying laughing)
Wow. He must REALLY hate IE. I use Firefox.
Mish-
I think you’re being a tad unfair to Joe Morgan. (Dying laughing)
@ WaLi:
Wow. He must REALLY hate IE. I use Firefox.
Mish-
I think you’re being a tad unfair to Joe Morgan.
(Dying laughing)
@ WaLi:
Wow. He must REALLY hate IE. I use Firefox.
Mish
I think you’re being a tad unfair to Joe Morgan.
(Dying laughing)
Sweet ride, Mish: http://humor.gunaxin.com/batman-doesnt-police-stop-visiting-children-hospital/117166
Trever Miller ——–> released
Cubs offseason in review
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/03/offseason-in-review-chicago-cubs.html
@ SkipVB:
Do you have javascript enabled? I can’t think of any other reason why the comment buttons (b, i, link, img, quote) wouldn’t show up in Firefox. I have no idea what’s up with IE, but by the time we figured it out IE would change some shit and it wouldn’t work.
@ Berselius:
That sucks. I was hoping we’d see a rotation of Casey Coleman, James Russell, Shawn Camp, F7 and Scott Maine.
@ mb21:
I’m not sure how that changes your expectations.
@ Berselius:
I think F7 would still be the 4th starter.
We should start a “How Long Will JefF7 Be A SP?” pool. Winner gets a bottle of Cookie’s.
89.3% of the comments on this blog are summed up in this image:
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Lwaxana Troi?
@ Berselius:
Not objectively hot.
face ^ palm
http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/daily-facepalm-2-26-12.html