The Cubs roster is mostly set with a few exceptions. Welington Castillo and Steve Clevenger are battling it out for the back-up catcher spot. There's been this invented competition for the rotation, which I think is mostly nonsense. You've got Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster and Paul Maholm who are guaranteed spots in the rotation. Certainly deserving of a spot is Randy Wells and one of Chris Volstad and Travis Wood. I don't believe Jeff Samardzija has a chance, but as long as the Cubs are letting him think he does we may as well act like it. I guess. We've got nothing better to do anyway. Then there's the back-ups in the infield and outfield and some spots in the bullpen. Let's start with the back-up catcher.
Neither catcher has enough playing time at the big league level for that to be of any concern. Castillo has all of 34 plate appearances and Clevenger just 5. As much as I don't like the idea of settling on who will win a position based on the very small sample in spring training, I dislike it just as much that they'd base it on such small samples at the big league level. Then again, this isn't a major position so it's not a big deal what criteria they use, but the two of them have far more playing time in the minors and can be directly compared to one another.
Each has played 6 minor league seasons. Castillo has 1661 plate appearances to Clevenger's 2045. Their batting lines are below:
Castillo: .265/.323/.430
Clevenger: .308/.369/.421
Castillo has performed better at AAA, but last year in limited time Clevenger hit the shit out of the ball. Overall, I think it's tough to make the argument than Castillo is the better catcher. When you factor in Clevenger's higher OBP (and it's significant) I think the offensive value between these two isn't particularly close. Clevenger also offers you the ability to play some infield in a pinch. He bats left handed so will have the platoon advantage in days you might want to rest Geovany Soto.
Their performance this spring is below:
| Player | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| Castillo | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | .400 | .400 | .667 | .453 |
| Clevenger | 15 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | .417 | .467 | .667 | .466 |
A measly 15 plate appearances doesn't tell us much, but considering Clevenger's advantage in career stats and slight advantage this spring I think he's only strenghthened his position as the guy who deserves to be the back-up catcher. I have no idea what the Cubs think. Based on playing time it doesn't appear they're leaning in any one direction, but it's something to watch as we move forward.
What about the projections? The two have projections for CAIRO, ZiPS, PECOTA, Oliver, Steamer and Marcel.
Castillo's average batting line is .246/.297/.408 with a wOBA of .307. Clevenger's line is .269/.323/.385 with a wOBA of .315. In each of the 6 projections, Clevenger is projected to be the better hitter. The closest the two are is in Oliver, which likes Castillo for a .316 wOBA and Clevenger for a .318 wOBA. The others are decisive. I don't have any idea who ends up winning the job, but I know which one is the better offensive player.
Defense? I don't have the foggiest damn clue. And I don't think it should matter either because we haven't even looked at their splits projections. Most of the time Clevenger plays will be against a righty. This will maximize Soto's platoon advantage while doing the same for Clevenger. You can't do that with Castillo. The difference in their offensive abilities seems relatively small, but factor in the platoon advantage that can be maximized and it's really not that close. We'd probably end up with a projection based on 80/20 platoon advantage for Clevenger of about a .325 wOBA. If you let Castillo maximize his platoon advantage you minimize Soto's and since he's the superior player that would be kind of dumb.
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/17793485/brett-jackson-will-not-make-cubs-out-of-camp
I seem to remember Castillo’s defense getting good reviews
Enter the OVBlog bracket challenge now! http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/group?groupID=91223
We apparently have a new page design on Facebook. Thanks, 424.
@ mb21:
Well played.
@ Berselius:
Strong arm, poor mechanics has been the word on him. No idea what it is for Clevenger. Suppose I could look that up. Not sure it really matters though. Once you factor platoon advantage into it Castillo just isn’t as good even if he’s a superior fielder.
@ Rice Cube:
No one tells me about this stuff. My office is in the basement and they took my key away too.
@ mb21:
Is this, like, basketball or something?
@ Rice Cube:
That angry garbage man video is crazy. I wonder what the story is. I bet he got in a lot of trouble, too. Not for the garbage so much as the mail. Fucking with the mail is bad times.
@ mb21:
I think my main reason for Castillo being the frontrunner is that it would piss him off if Clevenger jumped the line. If they make Clevenger the backup then I think either Castillo or Geo is traded.
@ Berselius:
What incident? I guess I should google that for me.
Never mind. What a maroon.
mb21 wrote:
Oops. That was not supposed to get published yet. I was just messing around with it trying to find a good photo for the cover. Well, I guess it’s live now.
Eventually Facebook was going to force the change to the timeline format anyway. Maybe they did last night? Whatever.
@ Berselius:
I could see one of them traded, but I hope the Cubs don’t care whether or not a potential back-up catcher gets pissed off. I could understand if they don’t want to piss Garza or Castro off. Or even Brett jackson, but not Castillo. It’s like trying not to piss Jay Jackson off.
I won’t be surprised if they go with Castillo. I think he’s been the obvious pick for awhile, but I think the obvious pick deserves to be taken a closer look at. Had I not done so about 6 months ago I would have just assumed Castillo is better. I was surprised by what I learned.
@ Aisle424:
From what I’ve gathered, as soon as facebook catches any whiff of interest or acknowledgement of timeline they switch you over.
Rice Cube wrote:
Marshall allegedly punched a woman in the face this past weekend. From what I’ve heard, his explanation is that he wasn’t trying to punch her, he was trying to punch another dude.
This is all extremely sketchy information that I’ve pieced together from chatter on the radio. So the Google machine is probably your friend here.
@ Aisle424:
sorry I ruined the big surprise. At least I can’t be fired again.
@ Aisle424:
I think all fan pages were supposed to be forcibly switched over by the end of March. Kudos to you for being proactive.
Oh yeah, I think it looks great. Well done.
@ Berselius:
Maybe that’s it. I got the Six Row site ready for the change but waited to publish until after we did the election thing because I liked the way the old site looked with the patriotic images. Then when that ended I manually published the new timeline since I do like the aesthetics of the timeline better.
I assumed I could do the same with OV and publish it after we all got a chance to see what cover image we like best. There’s no reason we can’t change it now, but now all changes are live.
I love the image that’s used, 424. I had forgotten about that one.
josh wrote:
How did the person recording know this guy was gonna go ape shit? The person sets up a camera just to casually catch what goes on when the trashman picks up the trash? I call bollocks.
@ Mucker:
I can think of two possibilities: they had complained about the garbage man, and were expecting retaliation, or they had stuff damaged before.
That said, you’re probably right. That mailbox went down pretty easy. Those things are usually set in concrete. Also the drive off was very smooth. Still, if it’s fake that guy really owned the role. You could feel some anger there, whether manufactured or real. I give it an A-
@ Mucker:
I think I read somewhere it was a prank. It was his own trash and mailbox.
@ Rice Cube:
Kearns showed heart and grit to score that run!
@ Aisle424:
I fucking hate the way timeline is organized. Holding out as long as possible on my page.
@ josh:
Yeah, that’s possible regarding retaliation or prior damage. But like you said it was a little too smooth. And if you ever see me golf, I look exactly like that guy. (dying laughing)
@ WaLi:
I figured as much.
@ Berselius:
Of course, given all dire facebook UI bitching, I’ll shrug and be fine with it after 2-3 days (dying laughing)
@ mb21:
It’s not the best quality, but it formatted the best as the cover page. I wanted to use the Abbey Road one, but I’d have either had to cut off half the Beatles’ bodies to fit in the Wrigley scoreboard, or cut out the scoreboard. The Traveling Wilbury’s one was the 2nd option, but your name got obscured by the Cubby facepalm.
MLB social media policy
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/14/major-league-baseball-releases-its-social-media-policy-and-its-pretty-good/
strange to see mlb looking progressive about new technology for once
@ Mucker:
I look like that when I spill a couple of farfalle into the sink when I’m trying to strain them.
Maybe I need medication.
MLB Gameday lists Soriano as the catcher today.
I’m thinking of using this image for when we start up our Alien Pizza Hut MILFS blog.
@ ACT:
Indeed.
Gameday link for those too lazy to navigate
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2012_03_14_milmlb_chnmlb_1&mode=gameday
@ Aisle424:
I like mb the best. (dying laughing)
I recognize Sasha Gray, but I don’t know the others by name (the Asian I’ve seen before).
Regarding BJax, I think they are, besides thinking about money, worried that they could lose a tested veteran for a guy who’s just having a good month. I don’t think it’s unreasonable not to carry him out of camp. Not saying DeJesus, Byrd, and Sori are going to be better, but you basically take a risk losing one of those guys if commit fully to BJax, and they are all proven MLB talent. If Sori goes on a long tear, or Byrd rediscovers his swing, those guys could be valuable. So there’s a risk, because they don’t want to use BJax as a fourth, and you want to give the three vets a chance to prove themselves. I agree with leaving him in the minors. If he continues to kill it there, I believe they’ll make a move, but I think they’ll move one of the vets off the team or more permanently to the bench, probably whoever has proven themselves to be the weakest link. I could be reading it wrong, but that’s my take.
@ Mish:
Asia Carrera?
Is Gameday lying, or did the Brewers just ground out three in a row on the first three pitches of the game?
EDIT: Nevermind, game day appears to be throwing a whole bunch of catch-up out there at once.
@ Berselius:
I’m not sure that’s fair. Considering the amount of money that MLB makes in the digital world compared to other sports I don’t think embracing technology is a problem. I think they were slow to adjust to social networking, but ahead of the rest in many other ways.
I don’t understand this part. Does that mean no linking to mlb.com? Can they not link to an article about them or a game without permission? That’s odd. Can they link here or BCB or somewhere like that?
@ Mish:
I don’t know who they are either. I know I’ve asked before, but can’t remember important things like that.
@ mb21:
I think it’s just MLB owned websites. Not sure why, probably has something to do with MLB.com being a separate entity or something.
Carrie Muskat: They have kind of a hole in that bullpen.
Kind of???
@ josh:
I’m fine with leaving him in AAA though I’m not sure it sends the best message. The Cubs are full in the OF so it’s understandable, but they could release Soriano and move Byrd to LF. That’s probably what I’d do if I ran the team.
@ mb21:
I mean, if the decision is that you have to put BJax in the MLB or let him go, then I agree. But I just think Soriano is slightly more of a safe bet because he’s performed at the MLB level so long. I think they figure he at least deserves a month to see if he’s going to do something unexpected, and you’re paying him just for that reason. I think Sori’s on the ropes, though. He’ll have really do something good, or BJax will have to really falter for Sori to keep his spot.
I guess I’m just saying I get it. This roster isn’t a fun one. It feels like there are no real good decisions.
Randy Wells with a 0-point bunt.
I like that Aisley was Katie Morgan.
Travis Wood is having some issues.
Sounds like Reedz just had a fail.
@ Rice Cube:
And Reed Johnson with a rare error.
Cubs fans rekindle their hatred of the Sean Marshall trade.
I’m guessing Travis Wood starts the year at AAA, small sample size notwithstanding.
@ Rice Cube:
Hasn’t looked good so far. Shark is smelling blood in the water.
@ josh:
I think they’ll give Randy Wells precedence over Samardzija, but I guess it’s an enviable position for Sveum to have (relatively speaking)
Not a great day for Travis Wood
@ Rice Cube:
I can’t seem to keep the college of pitchers straight. I thought Wood was in line for a spot.
@ Rice Cube:
I figured he’d be starting the season in AAA anyway
I was going with the theory that Volstad/Wood would be up for the 5 spot. If Wood is out, then that at least gives Samardzija a slightly better than chance than if Wood and Volstad were both unhittable.
MB = Jenna Jameson
Berselius = Sasha Grey
Aisley = Katie Morgan
AC = Asia Carrera
@ Aisle424:
You should use porn stars that share your initials. I’m sure it’s not that hard to find them. Just brainstorming.
@ Aisle424:
I’ll bet nobody guessed this place was run by 4 porn stars.
josh wrote:
It was scary enough searching for images of porn stars whose names I could think of off the top of my head.
But yeah, AC got Asia Carrera for that reason, otherwise it would have been Bree Olson (one of Charlie Sheen’s goddesses).
@ mb21:
My interest in pornography is both impressive and creepy, but I have no interest in impressing on you how creepy I really am.
I know Jenna and Asia, but never heard of the fourth. It seems outside of Sasha Gray, none of them coincide with my jerking off peak, which has been since about 1997 until (sometime many years down the road). Carrera and Jameson are seen more often in “classic”, lo-def video quality. HD has really revolutionized the porno industry (dying laughing)
@ Aisle424:
I know that one!
Katie Morgan was in some HBO special about porn and was in Zach and Miri Make a Porno.
@ Mish:
I didn’t recognize Jenna at all. I’m more familiar with the name than the face, since she’s not as current.
@ Aisle424:
Yeah, I can place her now that you mentioned Zack and Miri.
I don’t think there’s any point in listening to the rest of this game.
josh wrote:
Since our off-topic comments have gotten away from my special interests (Simpsons, Star Wars prequel racism, Game of Thrones, etc), I’m quite glad that we are talking jerking off and porn. That’s right in my wheel house.
@ josh:
I didn’t recognize her either, and I’m debating whether to skip dinner because that is one I should know.
@ Aisle424:
Her appearance has changed significantly since her heyday as a porn queen. Now she’s all gross and even faker than before.
@ Mish:
Same here. I did call Asia Carrera, so I figure I’ll eat dinner but skip desert and call it good.
@ Aisle424:
She’s really not, though. Maybe when she was younger.
Something tells me Casey Coleman won’t make his family the first to have 3 generations of all-stars.
@ Aisle424:
Great movie.
Today in odd search engine strings that lead to OV: fuck gif
@ mb21:
I am actually not surprised.
@ mb21:
Today’s discussion probably isn’t helping (dying laughing)
Not sure if any of you are watching Luck on HBO, but they just had to pull the plug on the series because too many horses died during production.
@ Berselius:
What was it about? Leprauchans?
The original Ben Hur didn’t get canceled after the third PERSON died.
@ Berselius:
That sucks. Obviously it had to be done and I haven’t watched an episode other than the pilot, but I really enjoyed it and planned to watch the rest when the season was over.
I didn’t know they were porn stars until Mish’s creepy hobby was outed….by Mish…. but before I knew they were porn stars I thought berselius and AC were the nicest looking.
@ mb21:
How did we never do Mt. Rushmore in the original week of hype?
Is it wrong that I’ve only seen a few innings of Cubs baseball this year, followed along on Gameday for maybe 8 or 9 innings and have read 0 post-game articles?
mb21 wrote:
That shit is gold, MB.
@ Suburban kid:
I tried to pick ones that had entered the mainstream in some way. Jenna Jameson was like the biggest porn star ever, Katie Morgan did Zach & Miri plus the HBO stuff, Sasha Grey has been on Entourage and read to schoolchildren, and Asia Carrera did some Cinemax-y type soft-core stuff back in the 90s.
mb21 wrote:
(dying laughing)
It would be wrong if you had watched/followed more than that.
I’m worse. I have listened to three or four innings all spring, no Gameday, no articles.
.
@ Aisle424:
I have no idea. I thought of it today and looked through the images to make sure we didn’t. Seemed impossible that we would not have done it.
@ Aisle424:
Sasha Grey was also in some Steven Soderberg movie, possibly one featuring sex in some way.
@ mb21:
I’ve actually intentionally avoided it. Trying to keep my hopes nice and low.
@ Aisle424:
Asia Carrera is also ridiculously smart and has her own website (at least as of 10 years ago when I first came across it) that she runs.
@ josh:
My hopes are already nice and low. I just like listening to baseball on the radio and watching on TV. I guess it IS a way of life. I don’t really even care if the Cubs win or lose anymore. I just like baseball.
@ Rice Cube:
I do, too, but I have a few other projects I need to make headway on, and baseball has a way of making three hours go by in which I have accomplished nothing, and if the game is shitty, then I’m down for like 2 hours afterward. Trying to break the cycle, at least for now.
@ josh:
Ah, I like to just listen in the background…usually you can tell from crowd noise if something good happened or not. Baseball is good for multitasking.
Come this weekend, though, all productivity goes out the window. Damn you, NCAA!
@ Rice Cube:
I try, but it just doesn’t work. I need it louder to drown out cubicle mates or something. Or I just get interested. Or whatever happens. It just tends to suck me in. Lucky for me, I’m basically a two-sport guy. Never got interested in basketball.
Holy shit!
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/gun-battle-interrupts-mexican-baseball-league-game-sends-214121731.html
It’s good that nobody was injured except for bad guys.
Sasha Grey was also on Entourage. Maybe still is.
Also, saw an OV post on my rss about tickets but don’t see it on the site…
It’s up now:
http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/lower-demand-wont-hurt-cubs-or-ticket-brokers-as-much-as-youd-think.html
hi,there