At the beginning of the season we started an over/under contest that would take wouldn't reveal a winner until the end of the season. People chose whether a player would end the season over or under his projections. Under was a bit confusing for pitchers and I made that clear in the post. If you thought the pitcher was going to do better than a 3.5 FIP you chose under. Anyway, we're halfway through the season at this point. Well not yet. In two more games they are. Anyway, I thought it would be interesting to see if anyone has jumped out to a big enough lead.
I just doubled each player's playing time and WAR (average of fWAR and rWAR). If you got it right so far, one point for you. Otherwise it's none. These can still change. Some of the players have performed right along the lines of what we would have expected. I have not yet included Anthony Rizzo or Brett Jackson since we didn't expect them to get much playing time by this point. I threw out Kerry Wood's since he retired. At the end of the season Jackson and Rizzo will be included whether they play all that much or not, but Wood will be thrown out.
| Username | Total |
| berselius | 28 |
| Snyds01 | 28 |
| Tommy (TC) | 26 |
| Mark Ammer | 26 |
| shawndgoldman | 26 |
| ACT | 24 |
| mb21 | 23 |
| SkipVB | 23 |
| Mercurial Outfielder | 22 |
| cwolf | 22 |
| WaLi | 21 |
| DamageControlFreak | 21 |
| josh | 20 |
| koboldekobold | 20 |
| WenningtonsGorillaCock | 20 |
| Suburban Kid | 20 |
| adnielsen | 20 |
| GW | 19 |
| AndCounting | 19 |
| Rice Cube | 18 |
| Corms | 18 |
| João Lucas Pimenta Pinto | 14 |
berselius, mb21 and AndCounting are highlighed because they are ineligible to win.
Oh yes I remember being too lazy to do this.
How did my super optimistic projections net me 20 points? Have the Cubs actually done better than expected? That certainly can’t be right. Maybe I wasn’t optimistic enough.
I’m guessing that my score reflects the fact that I was too optimistic.
I think the scores are mostly just luck. There were 3 categories for each player. I’m guessing a lot of people made some of their choices based on previous choices for that player. I figured Maholm wouldn’t reach his projected innings pitched in part because of an injury or ineffectiveness. So I also figured he’d be worse than his projected FIP and since I had both as lower I also figured his WAR would be. For Soto I figured he’d have fewer PA, but a higher wOBA and a higher WAR. So sometimes if you get one wrong you end up getting them all wrong. It’s really just luck, but I liked the idea that GW had and it’s something I think we’ll do each year. I might try to simplify it so more people take part in it. I might give people the option to pass on certain players too. I don’t know, but I’m going to play around with it before next year.
Anyone have an opinion on term limits? http://www.obstructedview.net/forum.html?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&t=93.0#postid-1219
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/07/03/anthony-rizzo-was-the-best-friend-starlin-castro-had-last-night/
Andy Griffith died
@ Mish:
I’m shocked to see myself listed up there, given my own profound laziness.
@ Suburban kid:
I usually un-latino-ify myself and end up doing these things, though.
I’m mediocre!
Good Chris Carpenter ———> could be shut down again, have another surgery
@ Mish:
You were probably too busy fighting crime and saving puppies
@ WaLi:
Probably?!
Has anyone bothered to watch the new Spider-Man movie yet before Mish rampages through theaters in a couple weeks?
@ Rice Cube:
I haven’t gone to a movie in over a year. Will actually probably take a day off work to see TDK Rises.
@ Rice Cube:
(dying laughing)
I have a five day weekend starting in 1:15, so at some point I might indulge in Spider-Man, though I have nothing set up yet. I could also catch it before I watch TDKR at midnight in a few weeks, but I’d rather use that pre-show time to put my my mind in the right state, if you catch my drift.
josh wrote:
I will probably wait for the opening weekend crowds to die down before I take the family to a matinee. We’re a bunch of nerds.
@ Rice Cube:
Me too. The day off work is so the kid will be at daycare, so we can, you know, actually watch the movie.
@ josh:
Bane is not an especially cuddly personality for an infant.
@ Rice Cube:
True. Plus, unless it’s Yo Gabba Gabba onscreen, he gets bored after about 5 minutes.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jeff-samardzijas-seesaw-season/
@ josh:
I wish I didn’t google “Yo Gabba Gabba”
Poor kid.
@ WaLi:
It is by far — BY FAR — the most tolerable kids show I’ve seen.
Just opened my twitter and the first headline i saw was “The history of the batmobile” Didnt have to even look who retweeted it
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
@ bubblesdachimp:
Cool story, bro…
josh wrote:
False…just a bad statement all around. You need a larger sample size.
@ bubblesdachimp:
It’s not who I am underneath, but what I retweet, that defines me.
@ TheVan:
I didn’t say “in existence” or “ever made.” I said “I’ve seen,” and I stand by it. If you have suggestions, I’m open to them.
josh wrote:
Metalacolypse, Archer, Squidbillies…to name a few. They’re animated so they count as children’s shows. Also, I’m a horrible parent.
@ TheVan:
Kid’s not a big cartoon fan. I think he just likes the familiarity, and the fact that he knows the character’s names. He also likes when it’s time to dance.
@ TheVan:
I was trying to get him to watch me play L.A. Noire yesterday. After about 5 minutes he started slapping hte keyboard and yelling.
My kids are at a fun age where they like to watch the Cubs, but they’re too young to understand that the Cubs suck, but old enough to read the scoreboard and know they’re losing. It’s a very confusing time in my household.
@ TheVan:
My son in the last week just starting pointing at the screen when I’m watching the Cubs or clips and saying “bee ball?” It begins.
@ TheVan:
Squidbillies will certainly get some good ole learning in them their youngins, for sure. Early’s hats combine to form the encyclopedia of all knowledge needed for red blooded Americans.
Re: Children’s programming
http://www.collegehumor.com/video/6789072/dora-the-explorer-movie-trailer-with-ariel-winter
@ Berselius:
Ugh. That show is soooo boring. They just stare at you. I hate Dora so much.
@ Rice Cube:
Now that’s just weird. I was thinking about him earlier today, and it’s not as though I think about him every day.
Getting back to an earlier discussion I wasn’t around for: I wonder whether Samardzija’s reliance on his splitter as his out pitch may have something to do with why he’s been so inconsistent. That is, he’s only as good as his splitter on a given day. Somebody less lazy than myself needs to research that question.
Billy Hamilton now has 100 stolen bases.
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
Not today. That’d be a record.
@ Aisle424:
(dying laughing)
Don’t know what the SB record is in the minor leagues, but I’m pretty sure Hamilton is going to beat it.
Hamilton has reached base 154 times. 17 of those were doubles, 9 triples and a home run. Those are insane stolen base numbers.
@ josh:
If the kid is at day care, shouldn’t you go hike the Appalachian Trail instead of go to a movie?
@ mobile skip:
I don’t think I can reach the Appalachian Trail and hike it in a day starting from Illinois. If you’re generally questioning whether I get outside enough, rest assured I spend as much time outside as I can. That’s part of why I do insect photography. I try to get to a park once a week and spend my lunch hours outside hunting for bugs (when I’m not on old with the IRS, that is).
@ mb21:
Yeah, unfortunately minor league record-keeping hasn’t always been very good. Vince Coleman stole 145 in 1983 (Class A Macon), which is the most at any level since 1962. http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2012/06/for-the-record-single-season-stolen-base-leaders-for-every-minor-league/
@ mobile skip:
Por ejemplo, a lacewing I photographed yesterday:
So there’s a good chance he’ll set the record that we know of.
@ mb21:
Never heard of this guy.
@ josh:
@ mb21:
Go lacewing!
/non sequitur’d
@ josh:
He’s in the Reds system (high A). He’s considered the fastest guy in baseball at any level. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hamilt002bil
Also, a HOF outfielder from the 19th century: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hamilbi01.shtml
I think it would be a great idea to pass down the “Sliding Billy” nickname to the newer model. (Assuming the younger Billy needs to slide. From what I’ve heard, he’s probably fast enough to steal bases against A-level catchers standing up.)
@ Rizzo the Rat:
AND he can get on base? Is that allowed? Did anyone tell Tony?
@ josh:
Both Tony and Billy have a career MiLB OBP of .358, FWIW.
@ josh:
Ah, I think you missed the reference, but former SC Gov Mark Sanford can give you pointers on how to hike the AT from 1000s of miles away.
Cool pic
Proof that performance in this contest is luck as MB says: MB – 23; Skip 23.
I should have far less.
I’m glad Chipper is in the all-star game in his final season.
@ mb21:
Agreed. I’ve enjoyed watching him hit.
any word on a start time?
mb21 wrote:
None of those balls left the infield, either.
@ Mish:
He’s been one of my favorites for awhile. I was watching the Braves a lot when he was establishing himself. Great player
Mets announcer just called RBIs “ribeye steaks.”
@ mb21:
linccecum is done. getting hselled by the nats
Well, so much for Big Time Timmy being back on track.
Its just hanging breaking ball after hanger.. Bizarre
Wow. Brewers and Marlins tied at 11. Brewers blew a 6-run lead in the 8th.
just got away with another hanger. Everything is up for him
So, this Rizzo guy…
I really like Rizzo
Vitters BB in first at bat. Now hitting over .300 also
I have a feeling if Castro does that play brenly rips him
Aramis just hit a 2-run come-from-behind walk-off home run against Heath Bell in the bottom of the 10th. Aramis’ WPA on the day: .991
cue yakety sax
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22805063&c_id=mlb&topic_id=vtp_star_of_the_game
Heath’s reaction is awesome.
Alfonso Soriano stole a base.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
It’s nice that Aramis and Cesar Izturis could be reunited for a postgame walkoff. Too bad the camera cut away from their hug today before we got to see a replay of this
Volstad —> one bad inning as usual
@ mobile skip:
Gotcha. Totally missed that.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Aramis is having a pretty good year.
Guys, don’t worry. Dolis is pitching.
Dolis needs to go down
Surprisingly, Dolis had trouble throwing his sinker for strikes.
I haven’t even heard of the current pitcher.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I think he pitched once before. Picked him up on a minor league deal, I believe.
josh wrote:
Isn’t a contract with the Cubs a minor league deal by definition?
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Zing.
i would like an official timer on this half inning.. I have over 20 minutes
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Correct. But I guess it was a waiver claim.
Cashner hurt
@ bubblesdachimp:
Aw yeah! trade win!
@ bubblesdachimp:
Already?!
I hated Chipper when I was a kid. He always did well against the Cubs. Now I know he was just a good player. I was very passionate as a boy.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5577/andrew-cashner
Good lord. That kid is cursed.
You know, my softball game was 10-3 going into the bottom of the 7th and we got over confident and allowed them to score 3. Just saying it was closer than we thought it would be. The other team totally made a comeback and we were way better.
@ Rice Cube:
I mean, injury history was the main reason the Cubs let him go, right? Of course, the same can be said for The Rockies and Ian Stewart.
@ bubblesdachimp:
Not surprised. I thought re-converting him to a starter was a terrible idea.
@ josh:
Well, that and Hoyer’s long-standing man-crush on Rizzo.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I’m kinda agreeing with him. Although, obviously, I’m just waiting for him to have an a slump so I can say they called him up to early and the kid has already shown he doesn’t have what it takes.
Holy crapstore begonias! How do the damn White Sox have 19 runs!??!
apparently it’s just a lat strain
So Tyler Colvin has the winning homer today if the score holds.
I guess the Cubs lost that trade in a way.
Finally: I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Orioles’ struggles have coincided with Adam Jones slowing down.
It’s really weird to have the Phils at 10 games below .500. I know they’re old and injured and all that, but just last year they won over 100 games, for God’s sake.
I was going to go on YouTube to look for Trevor Bauer videos, but I just ended up watching Jack Bauer stuff for 40 minutes.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
That’s really surprising. Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay have been shakey, haven’t they? It’s mind boggling. I think everyone assumed that their first month struggles would quickly turn around, but they haven’t. Maybe they’ll make up ground in the second half. When do they play the Cubs? That should get them going.
Something’s happening in Seattle through five.
@ Rice Cube:
It’d have to be the combined kind of nothing much, if nothing much happened.
@ josh:
The dude’s been fairly economical so it may be a solo something/nothing much.
@ Rice Cube:
He’s already been taken out.
@ josh:
How disappointing, but ’tis best to err on the side of caution.
@ josh:
What? Chen’s still pitching.
Perfect game, no-hitter, and shutout all lost on 1 pitch.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Not for much longer (dying laughing)
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I was looking at the box score all upside down. I blame the amazing beer I’m drinking.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
It seems to go that way a lot of the times. Guy starts thinking about it too much, challenges him with a fastball down the middle. Bang.
Justin Smoak. That dude hasn’t worked out at all.
@ GBTS:
i was secretly hoping trevor would wear #24.
Rice Cube wrote:
It’s certainly not looking great for the Cubs, but it was a fine gamble by Thoyer. FWIW Colvin’s projection still sits at .258/.297/.476, a .328 wOBA. That’s a lot higher than I would have thought but it probably also has Coors taken into account. Colvin has power, but the rest of his numbers are buoyed by a .363 BABIP
Holy balls, the White Sox obliterated the Rangers last night
We got a search engine hit on “Jack Daniels Honey gross”
@ Berselius:
I remember posting some stupid comment that included the words Jack Daniels, so you’re welcome.
@ Berselius:
That stuff is pretty gross.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/the-children-are-the-future-cubs-minor-league-update-sponsored-by-cookies-bar-b-q.html