Prior to the start of the season we set up an over/under projections contest. It was rather extensive so fewer people than we'd hoped entered the contest. Plus, there aren't all that many people who are dying to have an Obstructed View t-shirt. There just aren't. Really, trust us.
It was a long survey. We used 11 position players and 7 pitchers. Kerry Wood has since been removed due to his retirement so we had a total of 17 players and 3 statistics for each player.
Of the 51 fields, not including the tie-breaker becasue it wasn't necessary, 13 of the 22 who completed it predicted more than half correct, but only 1 person was over 28. Mark Ammer ran away with it as he predicted 33 of them correct. So even if we left Kerry Wood in there, he could not have lost.
Projectjions are more or less a baseline of talent, which means it's the average production we can expect from the player. It's interesting that our group average was exactly 25.5, or half of the predictions being correct.
When I was sorting through the totals I was actually curious if we were better able to project, at least in the form of an over/under, certain players. I haven't looked into that yet, but will sometime. I did notice that a couple of the returning players we predicted correctly almost across the board while new players were more mixed. I wouldn't guarantee that is correct, but I got that impression.
This isn't too surprising either as we know a little more about the players than a projection system can include since we're more familiar with how they'll be used and their current inury status.
I may or may not dig further into our predictions. The point total for all who entered the contest is below. For the couple of people that either do not regularly comment here or we're unaware of what name they use, we used the initials of their real name.
(dying laughing) Cardinals
That’s a bullshit call by the umps.
terrible call
They need to fix this rule. You can’t take that away. I’m fine with an infield fly rule, but they need to tweak it to ensure something like this doesn’t happen again.
#mlbreplacementrefs
Yay, I wasn’t last! (dying laughing)
I wouldn’t do what many of these fans did, but I don’t really have a problem with it. That was a horrible call and maybe a season changing one.
Uhh, what just happened in Atlanta? I just turned on the audio.
Anyone get ejected? I heard the field is covered with trash now.
@ GBTS:
Terrible infield fly call. Should be bases loaded and 1 out. Instead it’s 1st and 2nd, 2 out.
@ GBTS:
infield fly rule called on a pop up to shallow left field that kozma ended up not catching, thinking that holliday had it.
@ Rice Cube:
II’m pretty sure nobody was ejected.
Apparently one part of the rule is that the ump has to signal infield fly immediately, but he signaled it very late here.
Under protest
That still doesn’t make sense though if it was that far out of the infield, the runners would’ve been partway off the base so they could advance if the fielders fucked up.
I heard the game is under protest now.
Rice Cube wrote:
Anyone finds video, plz post thx
I would guess that the field gets littered between innings again. (dying laughing)
Found it on Deadspin.
@ GBTS:
can you see this
I hear there are some NFL replacement refs looking for jobs. MLB should hire them for the playoffs. Better than this shit.
That was bullshit. Utter bullshit.
What does “under protest” mean? Would they replay the game if the commish agreed it was a shit call?
@ GW:
Won’t load for me. Every baseball fan is trying to watch it right now.
@ josh:
Yes, but the behavior of Braves fans is making me want the Cardinals to win (a feat previously believed to be impossible).
@ josh:
You can’t protest judgment calls so what’s being protested is that the umpire signaled infield fly too late. According to the rules it needs to be done immediately, but what does immediately mean? I highly doubt MLB is going to invalidate the very first playoff game of the 2012 season, but they should.
If they side with the Braves, it would be played from that point. Whether or not it would be bases loaded and 1 out or 1st and 2nd 1 out I don’t know.
I just literally have no idea how an umpire can make that call. None whatsoever. That is the worst call in baseball history. That’s 1000 times worse than missing an out/safe call. The infield fly rule is based in equity. As in a team can’t intentionally bend the rules to gain an unfair advantage. That’s the sole purpose of the rule. That was an unintentional miscommunication 30 feet into the outfield. Just unconscionable.
Is Jeff Baker on the Braves? I could have swore I saw him standing at the top of the dugout. But I also thought he was traded to Detroit?
@ mb21:
loaded it from my fantasy league page, so it may only work if you have paid money to cbs. i was just curious.
@ Rodrigo Ramirez:
Tigers dealt him to Atlanta.
MLB Rule 2.00, definitions:
It could not be appealed because it’s a judgment call, but the call was not made immediately. The ball could’ve been caught by Kozma though. That’s the part that probably makes it a valid call.
That was a classy moment by the Cardinals.
C’mon Larry Wayne!
@ Rice Cube:
It’s the “immediately” part that gave them reason to protest. I don’t think it will work. No way will MLB allow that to happen.
I think it’s time that rule be tweaked a bit because this type of call should never happen again.
Larry Wayne’s potentially last AB ends in a squip and an error!
Descalso thought Billy Hamilton was running down the line. WTF
That was called a makeup call.
If the umps blow another call here, Atlanta will burn like General Sherman just rolled into town. (dying laughing)
@ GBTS:
(dying laughing) (dying laughing)
By the way, the earlier squeeze play that wasn’t was a good call by the umps right?
http://deadspin.com/5949486/mlb-removed-the-phrase-we-dont-understand-the-infield-fly-rule-from-its-twitter-profile
Pretty funny.
Er. Ma. Gerd.
O’s.
Dammit, what is this shit, I was trying to watch A Time to Kill
@ GW:
Thank god they didn’t interrupt A&E’s weekly Criminal MInds marathon.
Theory on infield fly call:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/10/05/one-persons-theory-on-the-horrible-infield-fly-call/
Protest denied by MLB, per Jayson Stark
What station is the other game on?
@ Rice Cube:
I had that thought as well. That’s probably right.
hard to believe joe saunders is starting this game. also, i forgot about ryan flaherty in my ex-cubs i wish well.
@ josh:
TNT
@ josh:
tnt. switching back to tbs shortly, though
Ryan Flaherty is the starting 2B tonight. How about that.
@ Berselius:
Why would they approve it? Then they’d have to admit that their umpires are shit and that replay is needed. Not that this was necessarily a reviewable call per the rules.
Don’t think I get TNT. Eh well, I can listen whilst guitar playing.
@ Rice Cube:
They could do a protest flag system, then it would be.
The MLB twitter account removed “we don’t understand the infield fly rule either” from its bio.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
@ josh:
back on tbs now, if that makes a difference.
@ GW:
Cool.
@ Rice Cube:
Looks like a lot of people in the comments didn’t bother to read the piece. I agree that we don’t know what would have happened if the IFR hadn’t been called, though.
@ Berselius:
I beat you to that one: @ Rizzo the Rat:
@ Rizzo the Rat:
(dying laughing), I need to read every word
@ GW:
Of course it does. A Time To Kill is back on.
@ Berselius:
They put a lot of thought into that one.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
No, we don’t know, but I’ve never seen an infielder just give up on a ball after the umpire called the infield fly rule. It’s possible, but I highly doubt an MLB player heard infield fly rule and just said fuck it, I’m not going to bother catching this shit since it’s already an out.
aside:
http://www.obstructedview.net/aside/dbacks-looking-for-ss-veteran-sp-3b.html
New shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/other-topics/i-miss-schultz-already.html
@ mb21:
The theory is he heard the ump yell something and thought it was Holliday calling him off.