Ryan Dempster entered the 2012 season in the final year of his contract. He was coming off season in which his ERA had ballooned to 4.80, but his FIP and xFIP were in line with what he'd done as a starter since 2008. His FIP was 3.91 and he had an xFIP of 3.70. The projections had him at a 3.92 FIP this year. The WAR projection was 2.4.
Berselius did using FIP and Fangraphs uses it to calculate WAR and so far this year he's been worth 1.7. Unlike last year, his ERA is significantly lower than his 3.26 FIP. He currently has the 4th best ERA in baseball, but he's not nearly that high in the FIP rankings. Still, Dempster has had a very good season, but it's been viewed as better than it really is thanks to the shiny ERA.
Dempster has apparently said he's willing to accept a trade so it's likely one will happen. There will be several interested teams, but he's making quite a bit of money and is owed $3 million in deferred money. I think we can assume the Cubs are on the hook for that no matter what so Dempster's salary this season is $14 million and that's what we want to focus on when trying to figure out his trade value.
There are 3 rest of season projections available: Oliver (The Hardball Times), ZiPS (available on Fangraphs), and PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus). Below is a table that averages the 3 projections.
From this point forward they're projecting 114 innings, a 4.00 ERA and a 3.82 FIP. I also included July 1st and August 1st as starting points to give us an idea of what his value may be depending on when he is traded. Currently we're expecting 1.7 additional WAR. That actually seems high to me. Oliver and PECOTA provide WAR projections, but ZiPS does not. Oliver gives Dempster 0.6 the rest of the way while PECOTA has him at 1.5. So keep that in mind. The 1.7 is a high estimate. Realistically it's probably closer to 1.2 or so, but you can see how that affects the trade value.
Even at 1.7 the rest of the year Dempster's surplus trade value is only $0.3 million. It's the same if he's traded in a couple weeks and only $0.2 million if he's traded at the end of July. So even if you estimate high you find he essentially has no trade value. This doesn't mean the Cubs won't get anything in return.
They could and probably will send the majority of the money he's owed to the team trading for him. Assuming this, if they traded him right now and sent $8.2 million they'd get back $8.5 million in value. In a couple weeks they'd get back $7.3 million and if they wait until the deadline only $4.8 million in return.
These farm system values were in 2009 so we should add some inflation, but it gives you an idea what the Cubs may be looking at for the return in a Dempster trade. I'll paste the most relevant information below:
| Top 10 hitting prospects | $36.5M |
| Top 11-25 hitters | $25.1 |
| Top 26-50 hitters | $23.4 |
| Top 51-75 hitters | $14.2 |
| Top 76-100 hitters | $12.5 |
| Top 10 pitching prospects | $15.2 |
| Top 11-25 pitchers | $15.9 |
| Top 26-50 pitchers | $15.9 |
| Top 51-75 pitchers | $12.1 |
| Top 76-100 pitchers | $9.8 |
| Grade B pitchers (as graded by Sickels) | $7.3 |
| Grade B hitters | $5.5 |
| Grade C pitchers 22 or younger | $2.1 |
| Grade C pitchers 23 or older | $1.5 |
| Grade C hitters 22 or younger | $0.7 |
| Grade C hitters 23 or older | $0.5 |
The bolded red line is the maximum that we should expect the Cubs to get in return if they traded Dempster today. That's using the high WAR estimate so realistically it's probably closer to the Grade B pitcher or hitter. if they wait until the deadline the Cubs may be looking at only a grade C pitcher or a couple grade C hitters.
The Cubs farm system isn't going to improve much while trading Dempster. He's off to a great start, but it appears a lot better than it really is because his ERA is flashing in front of our eyes during every broadcast.
Depressing. Is it even worth trading him? I guess you have to get what you can at this point.
Uh, where exactly did you factor in the fact that he was seen talking to Theo earlier today? INCOMPLETE ANALYSIS.
How much do you think he’s worth on the open market this offseason? Could try the qualifying offer to snag a draft pick trick.
josh wrote:
If this was still the old CBA, probably not. He’d be more valuable in getting the compensation pick when he walks via free agency. What would the Cubs have to offer him to get compensation? I’m guessing it’s a number he would probably accept, so it isn’t an option, but I’m just curious. If he keeps putting up the flashy numbers he could be looking at a Mark Buehrle-eque deal when he hits the market. (Maybe he doesn’t get 4 years because he’s older, but maybe 3 guaranteed at $13-$14M per year). If that is the case, he might turn down a one-year offer from the Cubs and they’d get compensation.
We have to offer him 1 year 12.5 million to get compensation.
Also, I don’t think teams quite do things like this. Perhaps they should, but I’m betting they rarely if ever do. There are trades every single year that are clearly awful for one side. Which would probably be the Top 76-100 guy. But still.
I’m convinced trading BJax with Garza/Dempster can get us an impact piece. Not in the “Mike Trout, Bryce Harper” range, but “Top Ten Prospect” range. I would, at the very least, give Soler a shot in Center. I’m not convinced that .250/.350/.450 is much better than the hollow .270 Campana gives us when you factor in how fast Campana is.
Plus, Matt Scrapple could always pan out. There are only so many spots for “Centerfielder”.
This is absolutely as high as BJaxs’ value gets if he doesn’t pan.
Still think the Blue Jays and C Travis D’Arnaud are the best choice. Guy is absolutley blocked at the ML level by Abrencia and Catcher is a premium position, and the Jays are a fringe playoff team at best. For the Rangers, SS Jurickson Profar is blocked in the middle infield by Elvis Andrus. The Reds’ C Devin Moresco , Orioles P Trevor Bauer, Nationals 3B Anthony Rendon, Braves P Adrois Vizcayno, Tiggers P Jacob Turner, and Red Sox 3B Wil Middlebrooks come to mind as other targets.
@ Doogolas:
I guess the question (similar to what Aisley just said) is whether he’d get more on the open market and whether he’d actually go for that.
I think it’s about $12 million to qualify for a compensation pick. It’s tough. I don’t think Dempster would take a pay cut. Especially after the season he’s had. My guess is that he can and will get 3-year offers on the free agent market and it’s his last time to cash in. It’s risky, but I think I’d keep him and offer him arbitration. If he sticks around you’ve got a good starting pitcher coming back for about $14 million. The Cubs can afford it.
@ Doogolas:
I addressed this in the last thread if you want to read through it. Of course there are times in which a player gets more or less than expected, but that’s just how it is. Overall though, this is pretty damn accurate. DJ asked for a Greinke example using this and it matches perfectly. You can read through the last thread if you want.
@ Pezcore:
Being the nobody is untouchable I’d be okay with this, especially if Texas needs a new set of outfielders when they let Josh Hamilton leave.
Yeah, if the Cubs think he’ll realistically get 3 year offers, they should roll the dice. It’s hard to imagine why he would turn down ~$40M over 3 years for a 1 year $14M offer. If he regresses at all, his next deal could be less than $20M over 2 years and if he gets hurt at all, it could be less than that. Maybe that is enough for him to stay where his daughter has doctors they like. I don’t know.
I think they should keep him and offer arb. They could get the picks, and if Dempster accepts they could just trade him again next year. I thought there was no way he’d accept a trade for family reasons, but I guess he’s okay with it and the team is going to suck next year.
Even if Dempster isn’t going to get a deal at higher AAV than what the Cubs would offer he could still take it for the number of years.
Rice Cube wrote:
Shouldn’t that be OBBP?
Cubs lone All-Star ———————————————–> Dave McKay
Pezcore wrote:
Fuck the heck? Campana’s K’d 31 times, vs. 7 walks, in 132 PA. Last season, he K’d 30 times and walked 8 times, in 155 PA. He won’t be able to hit anywhere north of .260 across a full season. He’s been worth 0.7 oWAR and 0 dWAR this year. Jackson is at least an average CF, and has on-base skills that Campana doesn’t even know exist. So essentially you’re saying you’d rather have something like .260/.310/.320 over .250/.350/.450. Because he’s fast. Come on now, you can’t really mean that.
@ tinyjiney:
This guy?
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I don’t think any of us would actually prefer Campana over Brett Jackson. I’m intrigued with the idea of throwing him in to get an impact player back, but I didn’t run the numbers to see if that was even possible. Not to mention the whole “trade a prospect for a prospect” thing, although in this case you’d theoretically get a better prospect back.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
@ Rice Cube:
Oh, I’m not above trading anyone. But I think saying Campana is just as good or better is bad reason to trade Jackson. (dying laughing)
But yeah, I’d deal Jackson if the right deal came along. In a heartbeat.
I see there was an OV editors get-together this week:
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
McKay, not Mackay.
MmmmKay?
I am super impressed with Bryce Harper’s demeanor. It’s like someone sat him down and told him, “Look, you need to stop being a count, otherwise you’re going to get treated like one every single day for the next 15 years by 5’3 sportswriters,” and he actually listened.
@ tinyjiney:
And seriously, what fucking moron asked him what his favorite Canadian beer is? That guy should be fired for wasting perfectly good clubhouse access.
GBTS wrote:
@ GBTS:
Also, he’s a Mormon, and doesn’t drink.
@ GBTS:
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/clown-bro-bryce-harper-pushes-back-being-asked-145853251–mlb.html
I was not aware he was Mormon. Pretty cool of him to be so disciplined about this stuff.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Yeah, what that guy said.
If I were that good at my job at 19 years old, I’d do whatever the fuck I want.
@ Pezcore:
I don’t know if Jackson ends up being better than Campana, but he undoubtedly has more potential and one would expect him to be based on what he’s done in the minor leagues.
Ouch…
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/13/freddy-galvis-diagnosed-with-back-fracture-out-indefinitely/
Looking at the BP Top 101, a 75-100 pitcher would look something like Wily Peralta of the Brewers, Noah Syndergaard of the Jays, or Jesse Biddle of the Phillies. I think if the Cubs could snag a pitcher like that for Dempster I’d be fairly satisfied.
@ GBTS:
That’s a clown story, bro.
@ Peter O:
I wouldn’t be disappointed.
So, Pujols has a streak going of 7 straight games with exactly 2 hits. His numbers are looking kinda respectable now.
Pujols has fared better with the stick this year than Adrian Gonzalez or Carlos Pena, at least.
Aaron Miles is set to retire. Hope the Cubs retire his number this year.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
http://deadspin.com/5918141/david-stern-asked-jim-rome-have-you-stopped-beating-your-wife-yet-as-todays-interview-turned-ugly
Jim Rome just got owned.
I mostly brought up the “more than he’s worth” thing because I just don’t think Dempster accepts 1 year 12.5 million over testing FA. He’s already said he won’t give a hometown discount to stay and I just see no way he takes a one year deal. And that supplementary pick(s?) is simply more valuable than a B level prospect. I’m sure Theo feels the same way. So if a team that needs pitching wants Dempster they’re going to have to beat that. I mean, maybe that doesn’t actually change his value to the team so they pass, but if that’s the case then fine. We can just take our supplementary pick and move on. (I believe supp picks are also trade-able as of next year, yeah? Or is that just the ones that go to low-revenue/shitty teams?)
Also, to which thread were you referring when you said you addressed it? The minor leagues one?
@ Doogolas:
Yes, the minor league one (last thread, scroll down to about comment 60 or so).
Yeah, I don’t know what the Cubs do with Dempster. May as well see what some team offers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they just offer him arbitration. It’s probably what I’d do.
mb21 wrote:
Will do later. It’ll give me something to read at work.
And yeah, I pretty much agree. I think Theo would know if Dempster would accept an extension of one year at 12.5 million, my guess is no, and with that being the case it’ll simply be “Top 100 prospect in baseball or pass” kind of situation. Because there’s just no point in accepting less than max value when you can pretty much guarantee yourself a pick. Especially when the rules are:
I mean, that’s just a straight up first rounder for Dempster (which I didn’t realize until JUST now). That’s pretty damn valuable.
LaHair sure strikes out a lot.
@ Rice Cube:
I think that guy was my roommate in college.
@ mb21:
Gotta build a statue first
Are we sure Demp will be a type a or whatever it is?
@ mb21:
They don’t do Type A or B anymore. If he gets the qualifying offer and declines it he’s automatically worth a draft pick plus a supp as far as I know.
@ Berselius22:
Tear down the Harry one. This is Aaron Miles we’re talking about.
@ Rice Cube:
Actually I’m not entirely sure about the supplemental round pick.
So, the Cubs lose a series against the Twins, but they’re winning a series against the Tigers.
@ Rice Cube:
I keep forgetting that
@ ACT:
Spoke too soon.
Oy vey.
Garza fielding baseballs is pure entertainment.
Garza is working hard to make sure he can’t be traded, that’s all that’s going on.
What’s with R. A. Dickey lately?
@ ACT:
That’s a clown question, bro.
@ GBTS:
I’m not sure that will ever get old.
Chapman allowed yet another run today (but picked up a save). Over his last 3 games, he’s allowed 4 runs in 3 innings, after going 29 innings without an earned run.
@ ACT:
Has he been especially good?
@ josh:
Not lately.
Anyway, that’s a clown question, bro.
I guess Ben Sheets is trying to make a comeback. I forgot all about him. I guess he hurt himself pretty bad a couple of years ago.
@ ACT:
Hasn’t been able to get any vaseline on the ball is my guess.
Why does Adam Sandler keep releasing the same movie over and over?
Wriggly grass looks even worse than the Cubs.
@ mb21:
Because he has big opening weekends. That’s all anyone in Hollywood cares about. If a movie has a big opening weekend, it doesn’t matter how shitty it is, and you can usually find enough dupes to go see it just because it has Adam Sandler in it. That’s the biz, yo.
@ mb21:
The more baffling question is why Andy Samberg agreed to be in the movie. He finally seemed to shed the constant Adam Sandler comparisons from his early days and then he leaves SNL to star in the most Adam Sandlery of Adam Sandler movies. WTF.
@ ACT:
Is that like a question about comic performers stereotypically characterized by the grotesque image of colored wigs, stylistic makeup, outlandish costumes, unusually large footwear, and red nose, which evolved to project their actions to large audiences?
^
That’s a fucking clown question, bro
@ Berselius:
I can’t wait for this one to sweep the Razzies too.
@ josh:
I liked his first couple movies but he is just re-releasing them with new titles at this point.
Just checked, and yup, the Cubs suck.
Baez apparently hit yet another monster HR tonight
@ Berselius:
I don’t get it. That movie is one I’d pay to not see.
@ mb21:
I was a fan of the Waterboy and Wedding Singer. Billy Madison was pretty silly too. Everything else is throwaway.
I like billy Madison and wedding singer. Waterboy reminded me of that golf movie he did and I wasn’t a huge fan of that one.
RALLY RALLY RALLY
@ mb21:
Yeah, that’s the thing. A lot of people liked his first couple of movies, and maybe a sprinkling of others since then. I’m the same way. They liked them enough that they come back to see his new movie and it has a big opening weekend. It’s like a comfortable TV show. You know what you’re going to get. You’ll know when you’re supposed to laugh. If you’re high, it’s even better. So he sells out most of the theater the first weekend, and most of the people who wanted to see it have seen it, then he does well in Europe and packages the movie with Happy Gilmore on the release and makes his money back.
If you’re asking a broader question about artistic integrity, I’d wager that he just doesn’t give a shit anymore and he figures his time has passed, so he’ll just cash in as best he can and then retire when the studios stop paying him to make movies with his friends (most of his cast, crew, and writers and everyone are friends of his).
What a catch
@ mb21:
I liked Happy Gilmore and fucking hated Billy Madison. They’re pretty much the same movie (dying laughing)
Andy Samburg is in this for the same reason you’d be in an Adam Sandler movie if he asked you to be: you know you’re going to make money, and it will probably be a good stepping stone into other movies.
I’d probably cash in on it too.
@ Berselius:
Agreed so not why like the original? Happy Gilmore had its moments but I’ll take Billy Madison.
Grandma’s Boy was awesome. Adam Sandler wasn’t in it though (dying laughing)
The studio would rather make a movie with someone audiences have already shown they would pay to see rather than pay a new guy with new ideas. It’s the same in the book industry. Why pay Damlin Haimish for his novel on Irish Pixies, no matter how taut the drama, when you can produce GRR Martin’s new book, which you know will sell out the first printing? Movies are actually even worse in that respect. Very difficult to break in, no matter how good your ideas, because movies are damned expensive to make. A friend of mine was a sound production guy in Hollywood for several years, and he and his actor friend tried to make a movie. They sunk hundreds of thousands in, most of it borrowed and begged, and still never finished it. They have everything shot, but need to rent studio time to do the sound, which would require a trip to California, since there aren’t sound studios set up for movies anywhere else. Shit like that, that you don’t even think about. Most of the rest they got donated, including the acting and special effects (which are kind of goofy)
They’re just trying to make a short film.
I thought Sandler was going to attempt some semi serious fare with Punch Drunk Love, Spanglish, Reign Over Me, and Funny People. Unfortunately he keeps coming back to his Happy Madison Billy Gilmore schtick.
@ josh:
Makes what Kevin Smith did with Clerks all the more awesome. Dirt cheap and it found an audience.
@ frysredjacket:
Funny People was good too i had forgotten about that one.
Will Ferrell keeps making the same movie but most of them are hilarious.
@ mb21:
Very true. The game has changed some, in that people are less likely to give a movie with super low production value like that a chance. Everything is digital now, so even bad movies have to be better. My friend is also kind of OCD about sound and refuses to compromise on that. So he gets some of the blame, I think.
I think Kevin Smith made it look so easy, too, that everyone thought they could do the same thing. They only saw the end product, not the endless hours he spent studying movies beforehand. Same with Tarantino. Love him or hate him, he knows more about movies than anyone on the planet.
Ian Stewart ——–> DL (wrist)
Valbuena ——–> Cubs
@ josh:
I’m a huge Tarantino fan. I watched Pulp Fiction about a month ago. It was the first time I’d seen it since the theater when it came out. I didn’t remember all the humor. Fantastic movie. Before I rewatched it I would have said Reservoir Dogs was my favorite but PF is better IMO. True Romance is awesome too.
@ Berselius:
World Series!
Felix Pie and Derrek Lee have 11 K’s and a perfect game going through 6
@ Berselius:
It took me about 10 seconds to figure out WTF you meant (dying laughing)
I just remembered that the Cubs turned Felix Pie into Aaron Heilman (dying laughing)
If Cain strikes out the side, it’s the highest game score for a 9 inning game
Cain was mentally prepared
101 Game Score
Sweet.
Cain’s game score was 101 according to the ESPN box score.
Little Nicky FTW.
@ Rice Cube:
Technically, they should subtract a few points since his opponent was the Astros.
@ Berselius:
Is that good? I have no idea what that means.
14Ks. Pretty good. The perfect game is so impressive because of the lack of walks. I’m curious to see if there were any bad umpire calls or anything that contributed.
Matt Cain owes Gregor Blanco dinner:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22275319&topic_id=11493214
Woody had 105. So Cain can suck it.
Are we sure the Houston Astros have mentally recovered from the death of Whitney Houston? I mean, they’re reminded every single day.
Asterisk.
Thats Theo saying that.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
@ Nate:
He must read OV.
Does that make this place undiscredited??
@ WaLi:
gotta be at least somewhat undiscredited
@ Nate:
new shit