With news that the Cubs have tried to extend Jeff Samardzija beyond his arbitration eligible seasons not once, but twice, I thought it might be a good idea to look into how much he's worth.
Steamer projects 2.4 WAR and ZiPS projects 3.3. You can see these yourself on Fangraphs. Let's just split the difference and go with 2.9.
Samardzija has 3 years of arbitrtation, including 2013, ahead of him. He settled for $2.64 million this year and we can estimate what he'll earn based on that.
- 2013: $2.64 million
- 2014: $5 million
- 2015: $10 million
I'm being generous here. I don't expect his contract will double each of the next two seasons, but I'm nothing if not generous. Matt Garza was a better pitcher than Samardzija entering arbitration and over his first 3 years he earned $18 million. The $17.6 million total over the next few seasons is close to the most he could make.
Samardzija is already 28 years old so he's at his peak. We'd typically take -0.5 WAR each year after this to get projections several years down the road. Because I'm generous, and optimistic, I'm only going to reduce it by 0.25 each of the next 3 years and then by -0.5 after that.
- 2013: 2.9 WAR
- 2014: 2.65
- 2015: 2.4
- 2017: 1.9
- 2018: 1.4
- Total: 11.25 WAR
A first year arbitration eligible player earns about 40% of his free agent value. The next year it's 60% and then the third year is 80%. Since we already know what he's earning in 2013 there's no reason to estimate his salary this season. I'm using a $5.5 million per win rate in 2013 and increasing by $0.5 million each year.
- 2013: $2.64 million
- 2014: $9.54
- 2015: $12.48
- 2016: $13.3
- 2017: $10.5
- Total: $48.5 million
Teams generally get a 10% discount on contracts 3 years or longer so that makes it a 5-year, $43.65 million contract.
However, there is no chance he's going to see an increase of nearly $7 million between 2013 and 2014. None. There's also no chance he'll finish the third year of arbitration with $12.5 million.
Over 5 years Samardzija is probably worth between $35 and $40 million. Call it $37.5 million, but that doesn't factor in the additional risk the Cubs would be taking by extending a player already under contract for 3 more years. Teams who have done so have done it with a tremendous bonus in their favor. If they signed a 5/37.5 contract, there would be no bonus for the Cubs.
So consider a 5-year, $37.5 million contract the upper limits of what Samardzija is worth at this point. Realistically, it's probably much closer to $30 million so good for the Cubs for not offering too much.
Suburban kid wrote:
Yeah, I didn’t mean to say anything bad about him. I think he’s probably an average pitcher, maybe even better than that.
fang2415 wrote:
Until next Sunday, though I’ll be in Scotland til Wednesday.
I went to Tottenham and they Cub’d all over the pitch today. My bad guys.
@ GBTS:
When I try to explain the Cubs to people here, I tell them they’re like a cross between the Tottenham and England football teams, but that it’s been three times as long since they’ve won anything. Then the people start arguing about why the World Series is called that.
I’d say we should drink beer in London, but I’m going on holiday to Chicago on Thursday and it sounds like you’re not here anyway. (dying laughing)
I have a really hard time believing he will have three good years, let alone five. I guess I’m still not sold on the guy.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/3/16/4112094/an-alternative-to-the-3000-hit-club-and-hits-in-general
@ josh:
I’m not sold either. It’s not a lot of money so I wouldn’t care, but I’m not the least bit disappointed. I’d prefer they didn’t sign him. At least not until he has another good season.
The relative quantity of money doesn’t worry me, allocating resources wisely does. Last thing this team needs is to blow their wad on chaff.
Dammit! Just click the link.
http://cjzero.com/gifs/JapanRunningBrainFart.gif
@ Rice Cube:
403 Forbidden
Whatever that link is, it was not meant for the eyes of man!
@ josh:
It’s a gif of the TOOTJapan.
@ fang2415:
Yeah, we’ll be in Edinburgh til Wednesday evening and then we have dinner plans in London that night. Also, GalBTS thinks it’s weird when I meet strangers from the internet. (dying laughing)
Any off the path London recs? We’re doing the museums and the clock and all that shit next weekend.
GBTS wrote:
Do you have a private helicopter booked for 6pm?
Video of the TOOTJapan:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25773925&c_id=mlb
@ dmick89:
Agreed. I’d rather they extend him for more money after this season if he maintains close to last years performance than extend now after a single season. 2 consecutive years healthy and well above average I think reduces the uncertainty.
Since nobody is untouchable (except for Castro and Rizzo?), would F7 be worth more in a trade at current arb-eligibility, or with a 5/35 extension in place?
Castro and Rizzo are very touchable in the right deal… there just isn’t a chance anyone would offer them the right deal. Would you trade Rizzo for Price? I would do that in an instant… but Tampa probably wouldn’t.
That being said, Castro/Rizzo are the only two players that I would consider franchise cornerstones, and I’d aggressively shop anyone else, Shark included. I think he’s more valuable without the extension than with it, because you’ve still got plenty of cost-certainty.
@ Myles:
Here’s a question…the original F7 deal when he was drafted had a no-trade clause. Does that carry over now that the contract has expired and he’s arbitration eligible?
@ Rice Cube:
My first instinct was to say “no” but I thought I’d ask people smarter than me to be sure.
I know Samardzija has money from his first deal, but I’m still kind of surprised that he would turn an extension of that size down. Maybe it was more an issue with the years than the money.
@ Rice Cube:
No, his original deal expired last year. Now he’s like any other mlb player going through arb.
Rice Cube wrote:
That’s a great question and I’m not 100% sure, but a cursory reading of arbitration legalese would seem to indicate that his no-trade has expired. I can’t find examples of other draftees with no-trade clauses, but I haven’t looked very hard.
@ Berselius:
Cool, that’s what I thought, thankee.
Delete
@ Berselius:
I think it is that we don’t know what Heyman meant by a lot more money. 5/35 and I’m guessing he signs. I’m guessing it was a 7/45 deal or something close.
Is 424 going to set up a bracket thingy for OV? Didn’t he do that last year?
I have never heard anything about a NTC for Samardzija since his original contract expired. He hasn’t been the subject of many rumors, so it just might not have come up.
I’ve been on the “Cubs are going to trade Samardzija” train for awhile and I’m starting to wonder if I might be wrong. Of the current players represented on the retro Topps baseball cards the Cubs had made as promotional giveaways, Castro has 4 different designs, so does Samardzija. Rizzo has 2, Barney has 2, Soriano 1 and the Soler/Baez/Almora Future Stars card is 1. That’s it for active Cubs. I don’t know if it means everything, but Samardzija is clearly a major focal point of their marketing this year and therefore, must be considered part of a core they want to keep around for at least this year.
I wonder if him turning down the extension changes their minds a bit about whether he’d be of most value in trade.
dmick89 wrote:
Excellent question. I’m actually planning on doing 2 different bracket thingies. One will be a standard fill-out-you-whole-bracket type thing and one will be a round-by-round pick that includes bonus points for picking upsets. The caveat for the round-by-round is that it is an iPhone/iPad app so only people with Apple devices can play (and it costs a dollar to download) – next year should include an Android and Google Chrome version of the app so basically everyone can play. I’ll have more info on both options soon.
What’s the app called?
dmick89 wrote:
Bracket Madness
@ Aisle424:
The main website is: http://bracketmadnessapp.com/
Here’s the link to the iTunes page: http://goo.gl/SFSyc
@ Myles:
His no-trade clause has elapsed. The moment he signed a new contract (arbitration this offseason), it ended. Actually, I believe it ended after X number of years in the minors and I’m fairly sure he did not have one last year.
I don’t see how you don’t make Samardzija prove himself for one more year before you commit to anything.
Is Sori’s contract up after this season, or the one after?
@ josh:
He’s paid through 2014.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2013/03/cubs-sign-armando-rivero-for-3-1-million-bonus/
All your pitchers are belong to Cubs.
Rice Cube wrote:
Except he’s 25 instead of 23 with only one pitch that can play at a major league level.
Hooray?
@ Myles:
That’s what I was thinking. $3.1 million for that?
@ Myles:
@ dmick89:
Hey, it’s not my money *shrug*
http://m.usatoday.com/article/news/1996117
Guns and bombs found in a kids dorm room at my alma mater UCF
dmick89 wrote:
I think it speaks volumes about what they really think about the talent of arms in the Cubs’ system. They are paying some crazy prices for what appear to be fringe arms that they probably think have something about them they can develop.
@ Aisle424:
Yeah, I think it also says something about the Cubs trying to exploit the loophole in the international signing cap by vacuuming up a bunch of the players who are exempt from the cap. 25yo Cubans are the new market inefficiency?
@ 26.2cubfan:
Are other teams doing this?
New aside
http://www.obstructedview.net/aside/hp-on-stephen-strasburg.html
Another new aside:
http://www.obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/this-year-ov-has-two-discredited-non-classy-tournament-picking-options.html
GO MAKE YOUR BRACKETS!!!
@ Aisle424:
I love the password.
That article just reminded me that Concepcion exists (dying laughing)
But seriously, the farm system must be pretty awful in pitching depth.
@ dmick89:
I don’t really follow other teams’ minor league transactions closely enough. I wouldn’t be surprised if other big-market teams are doing similar things, particularly if they have a hole in their farm system at a certain position. I think it’s noteworthy that the cubs FO is doing this at ALL positions. As you said, that speaks volumes about Thoyer’s opinion of the farm as it currently stands.
@ 26.2cubfan:
For what it’s worth, why wouldn’t they do this if they thought the farm system was good? This was pretty much their plan anyway before they were blindsided by the international spending cap in the new CBA. The Cubs have resources, they’re using them. No team says “I have enough talent, thanks”.
GBTS wrote:
Meh, not really. The path should be fine. The boat tours are usually good, but you’ll freeze your balls off doing that with the weather like this.
Glad to see Scott Baker made it all the way through his Cubs Way handbook already.
@ mikeakaleroy:
How soon can we expect towel drills?
I heard OV might be doing a little bit of work sometimes with Sam Fels, with the Ivy Drip? If so, cool. OV is great, and I really appreciate committed indian for my hockey fix.
@ Edwin:
Any day now, I’m sure.
Also, this article is nifty. Will never ever happen, but still.
http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/kapman/rosemont-cubs-suburban-mayor-makes-his-pitch
@ mikeakaleroy:
Ugh. “Cubs should move to X” stories grind my gears.
@ Edwin:
What if “X” was “Tom Tunney’s House”?
I don’t know where I’m going with that one.
@ Rice Cube:
Off to a good start. I’d keep going with it.
I 100% endorse a move to Rosemont. I’d actually be thrilled if they escaped Wrigleyville and all of their corrupt bullshit.
Per HP, Edwin Jackson hitting 96 in the sixth inning. He’s ready to go.
Stewart had/is having another MRI. I’m starting to think that staying injured would be better for him than rejoining the team right now. If they can DL him and give him time to rehab they don’t need to cut him.
@ mikeakaleroy:
I think it’s a great idea. I also think that Ricketts should “strongly consider” the move so Tunney stops being a fucking nimwit. If Wrigley is no longer there, every property owner loses. Every bar loses. Every restaurant loses. The area would probably take decades to really, really suffer, but it would nonetheless kill the area eventually.
I just find it laughable that the rooftops think they have some stake in the Cubs. They basically steal the product that costs hundreds of millions of dollars and offer 17% of the revenue. Then they want a say in what said product does to make itself better.
Myles wrote:
Seriously. The Cubs need to start dealing with a fresh set of corrupt pols. This is Chicago, after all.
@ Berselius:
Or maybe the new MRI is to check if everything is OK for him to come back now?
@ Suburban kid:
He played one minor league game, and hasn’t played since. Apparently his quad is still hurting.
Baker’s heading for the MRI too :/
@ Edwin:
I think I was going to say something about how if Tunney wasn’t going to play ball with the Ricketts, then maybe he could rent out office space for the Cubs since they don’t have the space in Wrigley right now. I can’t word it right and this is reason #928472973 I’m not a stand-up comedian.
5th cubs.com article headline: Baker takes big step with first spring start
1st cubs.com article headline: Baker has MRI after being pulled due to soreness
It was apparently a big step forward by pulling due to soreness yesterday. (dying laughing)
Berselius wrote:
Do they get a group discount if they send enough guys at once?
Berselius wrote:
You got it!
I’m pro Rosemont, especially now that I no longer live in Mount Prospect.
I would guess a lot of money would convince the Ricketts, because stadiums are expensive and don’t net the return. He’d probably be wise to wait another year or two until the Cubs were closer to contention.
I made 424′s aside the active post so….new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/this-year-ov-has-two-discredited-non-classy-tournament-picking-options.html
@ josh:
Would take 2 years minimum to even build a stadium. No better time to do it than now.