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  • How good is the Cubs rotation?

    Player IP
    Matt Garza 193
    Ryan Dempster 188
    Paul Maholm 165
    Chris Volstad 155
    Jeff Samardzija 122

    The Cubs opening day rotation is set with news that Randy Wells and Travis Wood have been optioned to AAA. That left Jeff Samardzija and Chris Volstad to join Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza and Paul Maholm. Using our playing time projections and the average projections berselius has posted over the last month or so we can find out just how good (or bad) the opening day rotation is. There are other innings that will be pitched by starters, but these are our projecting innings pitched and we're standing by them. They look pretty decent to me.

    That's a total of 7.9 WAR from the opening day rotation. It's a projected 823 innings. Over a course of a full season, starters typically pitch around 940 innings while the bullpen chips in around 505. So there's a little over 115 innings remaining to be pitched by the Cubs rotation. Those innings are likely to go to a combination of starter with Randy Wells getting the bulk of them.

    To answer the question of how good the rotation is, they're a bottom third rotation. Some will say that WAR projection for Samardzija is unfair, but it's the projection. If you want to make some adjustments, go for it, but there are other things to consider too. Maholm had a terrible season last year. He lost something on his fastball and coming back from injury he may be no better than he was a year ago. Chris Volstad could easily be closer to replacement level.

    Last year the Cubs paid roughly $40 million for their opening day rotation. This year they're paying them about $34 million. Considering the decline in production we expect, there's really no difference in the amount they're being paid.

    Last season the Cubs got 8.8 fWAR from their opening day starters and two of them went down after their first start. Wells did return and threw 135 innings. The bulk of that WAR was from Garza and he and Dempster combined for 7.8, which is equal to what the 2012 Cubs are expected to get from their rotation.

    With the remaining 115+ innings we could probably add up to another 1 WAR. That would give the Cubs a total of 8.9 WAR from their rotation this coming season. Last year they ranked 24th in baseball with 9.5.

    dmick89
    When I awoke, the Dire Wolf, six hundred pounds of sin, Was grinning at my window, all I said was "Come on in"
    dmick89
    JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-17-13 http://t.co/gGHVijialf - 11 hours ago
    dmick89
    Contact me here

    177 Responses to “How good is the Cubs rotation?”

    1. Rice Cube 1 Rice Cube says:

      re: last thread…

      I think it’s fun to make fun of a player here and there but I don’t really bother booing anybody in person. Seems like a waste of effort.

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    2. 2 Tyler Smith says:

      Maholm had a 3.66 era last year. You consider that terrible?

      I’m not saying he can duplicate that here. But he could be a nice addition.

      The Cubs really need Demp to bounce back.

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    3. josh 3 josh says:

      bubblesdachimp wrote:

      Every now and then Bubs thinks a producer should change the end of a movie to really troll the audience. Like let Voldemort win at the end of Harry Potter or let The A’s win the series.

      That’s basically what Tarantino did in Inglourious Basterds.

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    4. mb21 4 mb21 says:

      @ Tyler Smith:

      I like the signing. As for a terrible season that probably overstating it, but there are a lot of red flags. His velocity is 2mph slower than a couple years ago. His BABIP was 30 points less than the previous couple of seasons. his LOB% was a little higher and he allowed fewer HR/FB. Considering the injury and the peripherals he could be awful this season. I’m only making a point that if someone wants to add to one player or another you have to consider the downside too.

      I think Maholm is the 3rd or 4th best starter on the team (he or Randy Wells).

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    5. 5 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Tyler Smith:
      You mean to bounce back from having a higher WAR in 2011 than your boy Maholm? Dempster’s peripherals in 2011 were in line with his career numbers, across the board. The only aberrations in his line are his BABiP ( .021 over his career mark), and, accordingly his ERA. A lot of that has to do with terrible defense, which is borne out by the fact that Dempster’s 2011 FIP sat at 3.91. So Dempster doesn’t need to bounce back from anything; he just needs to pitch like he has been since the Cubs slotted him into the rotation.

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    6. 6 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ mb21:
      When the trade went down, Brad wrote it up at Fangraphs and IIRC, he said Maholm’s FB velocity has been in decline since 2009.

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    7. mb21 7 mb21 says:

      Yeah, Dempster was essentially the same pitcher last year that he was in 2008-2010. 2008 stood out because of the sparkly ERA, but looking over the peripherals Dempster has been awfully damn consistent over the last 4 seasons. He’s older so I expect some regression, but he’s still a good pitcher.

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    8. 8 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ mb21:
      Yeah, I dislike him because I think he’s a raging jackass, but he’s undeniably one of the best players in the team. I don’t have a clue why Cubs fans like to dump on the guy, unless they have just been horribly scarred by his terribly unfunny Will-Ferrell-Imitating-Harry-Caray-Imitation.

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    9. 9 Mobile Rice says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:

      Because ERA W/L fried chicken beer.

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    10. Berselius 10 Berselius says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:

      Well that, and opposing hitters hitting 5000 HRs against Dempster last April.

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    11. Berselius 11 Berselius says:

      Sunday is coming

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    12. 12 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Berselius:
      Dempster allowed 39% of his HR total for the year in April. (dying laughing)

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    13. Mish 13 Mish says:

      @ Berselius:
      The North Remembers.

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    14. bubblesdachimp 14 bubblesdachimp says:

      wrestlemania tomorrow. Be excited!!!!

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    15. WaLi 15 WaLi says:

      @ Mish:

      I can’t wait for the sexposition.

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    16. mb21 16 mb21 says:

      @ bubblesdachimp:
      You crack me up, bubbles.

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    17. 17 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      If Marlon Byrd gets traded (and depending on the return), the Cubs will not have an African-American player on the MLB roster for the first time since before Ernie Banks played for the team.

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    18. 18 Mobile Rice says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:
      That’s amazing.

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    19. 20 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Mobile Rice:
      If he’s traded before Jackie Robinson Day, both Chicago teams would celebrate JRD without an African-American player on either roster.

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    20. 21 Mobile Rice says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:
      That is probably a function of both bad player development and less African-American kids playing baseball. Sad really.

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    21. 22 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Mobile Rice:

      Yeah, there’s a lot of factors in play here, but it’s still rather striking.

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    22. josh 23 josh says:

      Maybe if Jay Jackson started pitching better. Still, they have a bunch of Latinos, and one semi-Asian, so that should count for something.

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    23. bubblesdachimp 24 bubblesdachimp says:

      looks like baez is going to start at boise… wtf?

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    24. Suburban kid 25 Suburban kid says:

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    25. Suburban kid 26 Suburban kid says:

      Because four guitars isn’t enough on a three chord song….

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    26. Suburban kid 27 Suburban kid says:

      Pujols ————> leathery skanksville

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    27. 28 fonteYES says:

      is it too early to offficially official say Cubs Lose?

      Oh and
      Cubs Lose.

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    28. Rizzo the Rat 29 ACT says:

      DeJesus is having a hell of a Spring. I’m surprised he’s still in the lineup, let alone leading off.

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    29. Rizzo the Rat 30 ACT says:

      Also, if pre-season numbers are any indication, Albert Pujols seems to be a mighty good hitter.

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    30. mb21 31 mb21 says:

      @ bubblesdachimp:
      He was drafted last year and played in a handful of games. It would have been surprising if he didn’t start in Boise.

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    31. SVB 32 SkipVB says:

      Nice to see The Spirit of Matt Clement draw a walk. Now to avoid the TOOTBLAN.

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    32. Suburban kid 33 Suburban kid says:

      Bob Brenly just mentioned WAR and BABIP

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    33. SVB 34 SkipVB says:

      Run scoring TOOTBLAN. Ooof.

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    34. Suburban kid 35 Suburban kid says:

      Is it a TOOTBLAN if it was intentional?

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    35. Rizzo the Rat 36 ACT says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      I’ve heard them discuss BABIP before (talking about Garza at the beginning of last year). WAR is a new one.

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    36. Suburban kid 37 Suburban kid says:

      @ ACT:
      Len is now explaining “replacement level player”

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    37. Berselius 38 Berselius says:

      Sounds like WGN + DirecTV have a deal in place

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    38. Rice Cube 39 Rice Cube says:

      @ Suburban kid:

      The ITOOTBLAN.

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    39. Rizzo the Rat 40 ACT says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      Did he explain it well?

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    40. Rizzo the Rat 41 ACT says:

      I was watching the game for a while, but got bored. Enough with this goddamn Spring Training, already.

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    41. SVB 42 SkipVB says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      Yeah. Good question. Clevenger got caught in a run down. If he was trying to steal he got absolutely no jump. I suppose he could have been trying to lure the throw. In that case it worked and the Cubs used up the one time that play will work in spring training.

      I’m watching but the broadcast is the Angels or MLB so the vol is down. + my 5yr old is climbing on me so I might have missed a detail.

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    42. josh 43 josh says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      WHA!!??

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    43. SVB 44 SkipVB says:

      Cubs used up the one time that play will work this season in spring training.

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    44. josh 45 josh says:

      @ ACT:
      x2000

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    45. Rice Cube 46 Rice Cube says:

      The Gameday has a replay. I guess it was a designed play. If they were going to do something like that they might as well do it when it doesn’t matter if they fail.

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    46. Rice Cube 47 Rice Cube says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      It’s like the play last season when the Bears had the fake fair catch punt return, but it was called back. It will never work again.

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    47. SVB 48 SkipVB says:

      Who’s the 12-yr old batting for the Cubs?

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    48. SVB 49 SkipVB says:

      @ SkipVB:
      He singles. He should be starting on opening day.

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    49. Rice Cube 50 Rice Cube says:

      @ SkipVB:
      Minor League Guy.

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    50. Berselius 52 Berselius says:

      The projections really hate Dolis, but he’s looked really good in relief.

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    51. Berselius 53 Berselius says:

      (dying laughing)
      (dying laughing)

      Pretty much

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    52. Mucker 54 Mucker says:

      Mucker here……just got back from Pittsburgh and saw Van Halen in concert……unfuckingbelievable. On my way out of town, we stopped by PNC Park and that is one very nice ball park. I stood on the bridge behind the stadium and looking into the river and remembering that homer Colvin hit last year. What a fucking bomb that was.

      /cool story bro

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    53. Rice Cube 55 Rice Cube says:

      http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20330277&c_id=mlb

      In retrospect it was a pretty good idea. I’m sure there are plenty of ways to defend against something like that and the risk might not have been justified. Still cool to see, but I’m still annoyed by the giving away of an out (dying laughing)

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    54. Suburban kid 56 Suburban kid says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      It’s a good play in a tight game against a really good pitcher when runs come at a premium, and you’re tied and near the end of the game…….. but otherwise, yeah, I hate giving up the out. Then again, if you pitcher or Joe Mather is on deck, why not?

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    55. Suburban kid 57 Suburban kid says:

      Bob said he hadn’t always been comfortable with the new stats, but he now recognizes the importance of them and is looking forward to Len teaching him about them this season.

      They talked about WAR, so Len had to then explain replacement players. He did an OK job at that.

      Bob had a light bulb moment when Len pointed out how you don’t want to spend $5 million on a a guy that is just going to provide replacement level production. For some reason, when money was brought into it, it seemed to make sense for him.

      In other SABR news, Darwin Barney said how Sveumy told him to be more aggressive and that he’s not going to be taking pitches routinely in no-ball counts like he did last year.

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    56. uncle dave 58 uncle dave says:

      Suburban kid wrote:

      They talked about WAR, so Len had to then explain replacement players. He did an OK job at that.

      He did use batting average and RBI as his example, though. Baby steps, I guess…

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    57. GW 59 GW says:

      Suburban kid wrote:

      Bob said he hadn’t always been comfortable with the new stats, but he now recognizes the importance of them and is looking forward to Len teaching him about them this season.

      I’m sure his conversion is completely unrelated to his change in bosses.

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    58. josh 60 josh says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      This is Bob’s way of auditioning for a manager job.

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    59. Rice Cube 61 Rice Cube says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      I liked it after having watched the replay. I just wish they’d used the play in a game that mattered. Oh well, I let this team happen to me.

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    60. josh 62 josh says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      Did Bob, brooding, ask Len if he would have taken him in the 1st round, and when Len admitted he wouldn’t have, did Bob then knowingly tell him that his spreadsheets aren’t so bad after all? I assume that’s how all ex-players come to accept sabermetrics.

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    61. Rizzo the Rat 63 ACT says:

      One time Len talked about OPS+ and he botched it a bit. He said that it was relative to the positional average, when it actually uses the average of all position players.

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    62. josh 64 josh says:

      @ ACT:
      That’s closer than I would have gotten.

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    63. Berselius 65 Berselius says:

      Suburban kid wrote:

      In other SABR news, Darwin Barney said how Sveumy told him to be more aggressive and that he’s not going to be taking pitches routinely in no-ball counts like he did last year.

      (dying laughing), somehow I don’t remember Darwin Barney being known for his selectiveness at the plate

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    64. Rizzo the Rat 66 ACT says:

      @ Berselius:
      He did have a low swing% in 2011. Also, both the FG and pitchFX plate discipline #’s (not sure how accurate they are) say he swung at pitches out of zone at a higher-than average rate, while taking strikes at a below-average rate, so maybe Sveum has a point that he was too passive (which is not the same as being selective).

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    65. Rice Cube 67 Rice Cube says:

      Kansas! Kentucky!

      Just two of the picks I actually got right in the bracket challenge! (dying laughing)

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    66. Rodrigo Ramirez 68 Rodrigo Ramirez says:

      No WGN deal reached with DirecTV. Station will pull its content.

      I think the deadline was midnight tonight. Will be interesting to see what happens.

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    67. 69 Cubsin says:

      My expectations for Samardzija are substantially higher than yours, both on IP and WAR. In my mind, Casey Coleman is an average replacement player (WAR=0). Do you really believe Coleman is a better starting pitcher than Samardzija? Clearly, Dale, Theo and Jed don’t think so.

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    68. Suburban kid 70 Suburban kid says:

      @ ACT:
      Funnily enough, Barney used that exact phrase: “maybe I was too passive” last year.

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    69. Suburban kid 71 Suburban kid says:

      @ GW:
      I see what you mean, but I think Bob still works for someone on the business or marketing side of the team rather than baseball operations.

      The producer of the broadcast probably has something to do with how much new stats is appropriate for their audience. In the past, he likely resisted Len’s attempts to use them, but they probably see the audience getting a little younger and a little more used to this stuff. Also in a down year like this they will have far fewer casual viewers.

      Plus, the thing about Bob working on his manager resume for submitting to modern GMs.

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    70. josh 72 josh says:

      @ Cubsin:
      Randy Wells projected to bounce back this season, as did Travis Wood. We’ll probably see one of those two guys up if Samardzija struggles, unless Wells is traded or something.

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    71. bubblesdachimp 73 bubblesdachimp says:

      From Phil Rogers today

      Remember Kei Igawa? The little lefty who gave the Yankees two big league victories (and 83 minor league starts) for their $46-million investment is back in Japan after signing with the Orix Buffaloes. He was a model of commitment, if not a triumph for the Yankees’ international scouts. …

      (dying laughing) really?

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    72. mb21 74 mb21 says:

      @ Cubsin:
      K/BB ratio for both pitcher is 1.42 and 1.44. One of them has been as a starter and the other a reliever.

      FIP for both is 4.44. and 4.53. Again, one as a starter and one as a reliever.

      In the minor leagues…

      K/BB 1.88 and 1.63 (both mostly starters)

      FIPs of 4.12 and 4.49

      In every category above, Coleman’s numbers are the better ones. So yeah, based on what they have done in their careers, Casey Coleman is a better pitcher than Jeff Samardzija. That doesn’t mean he’ll be better going forward. Coleman may have transformed himself into a top of the rotation starting pitcher at which point it won’t even be close.

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    73. Berselius 75 Berselius says:

      Cubsin wrote:

      My expectations for Samardzija are substantially higher than yours, both on IP and WAR. In my mind, Casey Coleman is an average replacement player (WAR=0). Do you really believe Coleman is a better starting pitcher than Samardzija? Clearly, Dale, Theo and Jed don’t think so.

      My expectations are higher too (though not *that* much higher). I’d bet a decent amount of money that he’ll beat his projections (at least for FIP/ERA, maybe not IP or value). But we have to make projections on what we know and in a common framework across all players, and this is what we have.

      As far as IP goes keep in mind that he’s never thrown more than 120 or so innings in a season. Even if he’s suddenly a much better pitcher there’s only so far he can go.

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    74. mb21 76 mb21 says:

      Cubsin wrote:

      My expectations for Samardzija are substantially higher than yours, both on IP

      I’m curious how many innings you think he’ll throw and I’m wondering if you think that will have a negative impact on his ability to perform after a certain amount of innings. The negative impact could be from the increased risk of injury or just ineffectiveness which we often see from young players in their first 162 game season. Below are his innings pitcher each full season in his career

      2007: 141.2
      2008: 131
      2009: 123.2
      2010: 130.2
      2011: 88

      I see no reason to think he’s going to pitch considerably more than that and if he does, he’s likely to either a) become a huge injury risk this year or next or b) be terribly ineffective over those additional innings. A terribly ineffective Jeff Samardzija scares the shit out me. I picture a guy on the mound not getting any batter out.

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    75. mb21 77 mb21 says:

      @ Berselius:
      I think he’ll beat his projection because it’s going to be difficult to argue someone who pitches as poorly as them belongs in a rotation. You could tell me Koyie Hill’s projected WAR is -.2 and I’d bet he beats it. For that matter, I bet any player with a negative projected value beats their projection.

      Pecota has F7 with a 4.91 ERA projection as a starter this year. Does he beat that? If we use that as FIP instead, I will be somewhat surprised if he beats that projection as a starter. I’d be surprised if he is lower than 5.2.

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    76. mb21 78 mb21 says:

      I guess my point is that there is no reason to think F7 can throw that much more than 122 innings. I’m thinking he’ll throw about 95 fwiw.

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    77. Berselius 79 Berselius says:

      @ mb21:

      If F7 has turned a corner and stays in the rotation, my best guess is that he would be around a 4.40 ERA/FIP pitcher. Better than he was, but not really a world beater. But that’s purely a wild ass guess, not a capital P Projection.

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    78. mb21 81 mb21 says:

      @ Berselius:
      That’s about where I’d put it too, b. If league average is where it’s been the last couple years (4.00, right?), I would think 4.40 out of him in a rotation if he has improved. That’s 1 WAR over 140 innings.

      What I realized the other day on twitter is that there are some who think he might not only have improved to the point where he’d be a serviceable starter, but actually a good one. I had been assuming all along the debate was whether or not F7 could even become a serviceable 1 WAR starter. I can’t say anything to those who are thinking 2, 3 or 4 WAR. That would be one of the biggest career turnarounds we’ve seen and I see no evidence to suggest that F7 is going to be among those few.

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    79. bubblesdachimp 82 bubblesdachimp says:

      I am pretty excited for HHH vs. the Undertaker tonight… Not gonna lie!

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    80. mb21 83 mb21 says:

      @ Berselius:

      From the article

      Marlon Byrd, who scored a three-year, $15 million contract in January of 2010, hasn’t come close to the kind of numbers he produced during his three-year breakout tenure with the Rangers.

      3/15 says it all. He wasn’t paid to be a fucking superstar. He was paid to be a 1 WAR per season player and he’s been better than that.

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    81. Berselius 84 Berselius says:

      @ mb21:

      I was surprised to see that over at HBT. I don’t have any expectation of sabermetric analysis over their but their usual writers (Calcaterra, Gleeman) aren’t dummies (this was written by someone else).

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    82. Berselius 85 Berselius says:

      @ bubblesdachimp:

      Main bitch is not excited

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    83. bubblesdachimp 86 bubblesdachimp says:

      @ Berselius:

      B you might need to get a new meme

      (dying laughing)
      (dying laughing)
      (dying laughing)

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    84. mb21 87 mb21 says:

      @ bubblesdachimp:
      I’m excited for upcoming tractor pulling contest. Not gonna lie.

      How’s that for a new meme?

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    85. mb21 88 mb21 says:

      Hey, if anyone is following our rss feed in your reader or whatever the hell you use, could you change it to this feed location: http://feeds.feedburner.com/obstructedview/iSww

      There are also two other feeds on the site. If you click on the little rss icon near your url bar you’ll see the feeds (unobstructed views, forum).

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    86. mb21 90 mb21 says:

      @ Berselius:
      I would guess every Cubs fan who has DirecTV will be switching companies.

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    87. bubblesdachimp 91 bubblesdachimp says:

      @ mb21:

      (dying laughing)
      (dying laughing)
      (dying laughing)

      I cant tell if anyone actually likes me here…

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    88. mb21 92 mb21 says:

      @ bubblesdachimp:
      We like you. You just have some bizarre interests. (dying laughing)

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    89. bubblesdachimp 93 bubblesdachimp says:

      @ mb21:

      (dying laughing)
      (dying laughing)

      Some times Bubbs can never tell

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    90. WaLi 94 WaLi says:

      @ bubblesdachimp:
      No way bubbs, you are one of WaLi’s favorite commenters. Plus you are always good for a laugh.

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    91. 95 Rice in limbo says:

      WaLi wrote:

      No way bubbs, you are WaLi’s main bitch. Plus you are always good for a laugh.

      Meme engaged.

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    92. Berselius 96 Berselius says:

      Per Muskat, the bullpen is down to 8 possibles (though most of these guys have a spot locked up)

      Marmol
      Wood
      Russell
      Dolis
      Camp
      Lopez
      Castillo
      Corpas

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    93. Berselius 97 Berselius says:

      Juan Francisco ———–> traded to Braves
      Chance of Marlon Byrd being traded in the next week or so ————-> dropping

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    94. Berselius 98 Berselius says:

      @ Berselius:

      Berselius ——————-> moran, thought Francisco was an OF for some reason. He’s just going to fill-in for Chipper

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    95. 99 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Berselius:
      Now that you’ve talked about the deal, it will never happen.

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    96. mb21 100 mb21 says:

      @ Berselius:
      I didn’t think Byrd would be traded anyway. Who are the Cubs going to put in CF to start the season? Campana? I don’t see that happening.

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    97. Berselius 101 Berselius says:

      @ mb21:

      Probably BJax

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    98. mb21 102 mb21 says:

      @ Berselius:
      I don’t see the Cubs changing their plans to buy that extra year of service time just to acquire a low B or high C prospect. I think Byrd will be traded at some point, but probably not until the trade deadline. I expect he’ll move to LF when Jackson comes up. That way if Jackson struggles they can send him back to the minors and just move Byrd back to CF until he’s traded.

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    99. Rice Cube 103 Rice Cube says:

      The Marlins are hosting the Yankees in the new digs today. Gaby Sanchez hit a homer. I wonder if they showed that hideous sculpture going off in the replay.

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    100. Rice Cube 104 Rice Cube says:

      @ mb21:
      You think they’d just bench Soriano at that point?

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    101. 105 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Rice Cube:

      Yeah, I bet DeJesus gets benched/DFA’d before Soriano, and at that point, they either play Jackson in RF or shift Byrd over to RF.

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    102. mb21 106 mb21 says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      I’d like to think so. If new management can’t figure out which outfielders should play then there’s no reason to think this organization is in any way better than it was a year ago. If Jackson is called up and assuming the others play to their potential by that point, the decision to not play Soriano is a fairly obvious one in my opinion. I don’t see the Cubs DFA’ing him since it’s a lot of money, but they don’t have to play him that much.

      Seriously, if you give anyone a list that includes Brett Jackson, Marlon Byrd, David DeJesus and Alfonso Soriano and Soriano is somehow starting then they’ve failed. I know Sveum doesn’t appear to be the brightest man in any room he’s ever been in, but this is just too easy. Then again, not batting Barney at the top of the order vs righties is also a no-brainer.

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    103. Rice Cube 107 Rice Cube says:

      It does seem like the Cubs front office is taking a laissez-faire approach here. I don’t know what Theo’s dynamic with Francona was but then again, Francona actually had good players and it probably didn’t matter how he set up his lineup. They probably figure that the one or two extra wins an optimized lineup will bring won’t matter, so what the fuck ever (dying laughing)

      It’s fun to imagine the Superfriends having an epic facepalm session after watching tape of Cubs practice games and reminding themselves that they are punting 2012 to rationalize it all.

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    104. Suburban kid 108 Suburban kid says:

      I can see Reedz getting CF for a couple months if Byrd gets traded, with Campana on the bench till Jackson is called up in May/June.

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    105. Suburban kid 109 Suburban kid says:

      Reason ———–> not much diff between Byrd and Reed.

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    106. mb21 110 mb21 says:

      Forgot about Reed, SK. Good point.

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    107. Suburban kid 111 Suburban kid says:

      Caveat —————–> I haven’t bothered to look at their actual stats.

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    108. Rice Cube 112 Rice Cube says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      They’re probably equally grindy.

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    109. 113 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Suburban kid:

      Ah, good thought. Fucking Reed Johnson.

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    110. 114 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      Career:

      Johnson, .753 OPS, 96 OPS+ (96 wRC+) -14.5 UZR/150 in CF, 10.7 fWAR
      Byrd, .759 OPS, 100 OPS+ (99 wRC+) -0.7 UZR/150 in CF, 17.3 fWAR

      Pretty fucking similar. Good call.

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    111. mb21 115 mb21 says:

      Byrd is better than Reed when you factor in Reed’s shitty ability to hit righties, but he’d be an adequate replacement until they call jackson up.

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    112. Berselius 116 Berselius says:

      Rice Cube wrote:

      They’re probably equally grindy.

      Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

      Career:

      Johnson, .753 OPS, 96 OPS+ (96 wRC+) -14.5 UZR/150 in CF, 10.7 fWAR
      Byrd, .759 OPS, 100 OPS+ (99 wRC+) -0.7 UZR/150 in CF, 17.3 fWAR

      Pretty fucking similar. Good call.

      mb21 wrote:

      Byrd is better than Reed when you factor in Reed’s shitty ability to hit righties, but he’d be an adequate replacement until they call jackson up.

      All of this is moot. We know that it’s impossible to compare players of different races. Clearly Johnson is grindy and Byrd is an athlete and/or a physical specimen.

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    113. mb21 117 mb21 says:

      @ Berselius:
      Not to mention that I’m unaware what each of them has done in their 3 at-bats, which is what we need to focus on to estimate transformed talent level.

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    114. Suburban kid 118 Suburban kid says:

      Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

      Career:

      Johnson, .753 OPS, 96 OPS+ (96 wRC+) -14.5 UZR/150 in CF, 10.7 fWAR
      Byrd, .759 OPS, 100 OPS+ (99 wRC+) -0.7 UZR/150 in CF, 17.3 fWAR

      Pretty fucking similar. Good call.

      My lying eyes didn’t lie.

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    115. Berselius 119 Berselius says:

      (dying laughing)breu

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    116. Rizzo the Rat 120 ACT says:

      Who the heck is this Chris Rusin?

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    117. Berselius 121 Berselius says:

      Not sure why they had Garza pitch in a minor league game today instead. It’s not like they need to make sure the Angels don’t gather too much info on him.

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    118. Berselius 122 Berselius says:

      Great catch by Darwin

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    119. Rice Cube 123 Rice Cube says:

      Damn, I missed the daily TOOTBLAN and the comedy of defensive errors.

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    120. Berselius 124 Berselius says:

      @ Rice Cube:

      I thought it was a pretty good attempt, just a perfect throw from the catcher and a slide that was a little too high.

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    121. 125 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ mb21:

      The OPS gap between the two there is still only .044. I don’t think there is a significant dropoff if Johnson has to play. They’re both pretty run-of-mill MLB OF.

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    122. Berselius 126 Berselius says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:

      Too lazy to look it up, but I’m guessing a much larger percentage of Byrd’s PAs were against RHP. For what it’s worth.

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    123. 127 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Berselius:
      Byrd, 2934 PA vs RHP out of 4081 career PA, or 72%
      Reed, 2098 PA vs. RHP out of 3343 career PA, or 63%

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    124. Rice Cube 128 Rice Cube says:

      http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rusin-001chr

      Less than 300 innings but I can see why they’d want to check this kid out.

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    125. Berselius 129 Berselius says:

      cue cubbiejulie rage stroke

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    126. Berselius 130 Berselius says:

      Rusin might make the rotation with today’s outing

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    127. Berselius 131 Berselius says:

      Weaver is really falling apart at the end of this inning.

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    128. Rice Cube 132 Rice Cube says:

      I guess whatever Weaver was working on today didn’t work this inning.

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    129. Rice Cube 133 Rice Cube says:

      Bobby Scales —> Mets

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    130. 135 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      Wait, Reed Fucking Johnson’s picture is on the front of the damn park? Would another fucking franchie use Reed Fucking Johnson as a selling point?

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    131. Berselius 136 Berselius says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:

      Probably says more about the quality of the Cubs roster

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    132. 137 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Berselius:

      Wow, Ubaldo Jimenez is a fucking dick.

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    133. 138 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Berselius:
      I suppose, but the Cubs have a part time player underneath the marquee. That’s fucking lame.

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    134. Berselius 139 Berselius says:

      Tony Campana doing Tony Campana things

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    135. 140 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Berselius:
      Not getting on base and overrunning flyballs int he gap?

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    136. Rice Cube 141 Rice Cube says:

      Getting the Angels feed here. Sounds like Jeff Baker killed a baseball.

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    137. Berselius 142 Berselius says:

      Baker hit the shit out of the ball. Looks like he hit it off the top of the batters eye

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    138. Rice Cube 143 Rice Cube says:

      Reed Johnson says “fuck you MO” (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)

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    139. Berselius 144 Berselius says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:

      Got on base on a grounder that squirted just past the 2b, stole second (on a pitch-out, no less), went to third on a WP, scored on Baker’s HR

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    140. Berselius 145 Berselius says:

      Also, Jason Isringhausen doing Jason Isringhausen things

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    141. 146 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Berselius:
      Being fat and lobbing meatballs over the inner third?

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    142. 147 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Rice Cube:

      I don’t blame Reed for people thinking he’s more than he is.

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    143. Rice Cube 148 Rice Cube says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:

      I guess they figure that he’s pretty marketable as a fan favorite so he gets a poster. It is kind of pathetic if you’re an outsider looking in, but if it makes money for the team…

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    144. Rice Cube 149 Rice Cube says:

      Whoever that guy is messed up the shutout. I don’t think he will make the team as a result.

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    145. Berselius 150 Berselius says:

      From Rockies official twitters

      X-rays on #Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki’s left elbow came back negative.

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    146. mb21 151 mb21 says:

      Recent years suggest that Reed should only play vs LHP while Byrd’s recent seasons suggest he’s still a slightly above average CF playing every day. That said, Reed is more than adequate a replacement for a few months or even a season if the Cubs were to trade Byrd prior to the start of the season. I’d still be very surprised to see that happen for two reasons: Byrd may actually be more valuable at the break if he has a decent start and you just don’t see regulars traded this close to the start of the season (usually).

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    147. 152 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ mb21:
      Yeah, that’s pretty much my feelings. This roster is just so bad that the dropoff from the starter to his backup in most cases is almost nil.

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    148. Berselius 153 Berselius says:

      Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

      Yeah, that’s pretty much my feelings. This roster is just so bad that the dropoff from the starter to his backup in most cases is almost nil.

      It’s why the Cubs have such great depth!

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    149. 154 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Berselius:
      Deep. Like a bog. (dying laughing)

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    150. Rice Cube 155 Rice Cube says:

      http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/01/the-marlins-new-ballpark-is-a-hitters-haven/

      Fortunately, the nightmare sculpture in center field, which will open a portal to Hell for 15 seconds with each Marlins homer during the regular season, wasn’t operational for this one.

      (dying laughing)

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    151. 156 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      You know, it would be so Cub to have a winning season with this awful roster. (dying laughing)

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    152. Rice Cube 157 Rice Cube says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:
      Let it happen to you.

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    153. Suburban kid 158 Suburban kid says:

      Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

      This roster is just so bad that the dropoff from the starter to his backup in most cases is almost nil.

      Please shorten this so I can put it on a t-shirt.

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    154. Rice Cube 159 Rice Cube says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      “This team sucks”

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    155. 160 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Suburban kid:

      The 2012 Chicago Cubs: Making Replacement Level A Way of Life

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    156. mb21 161 mb21 says:

      Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

      The 2012 Chicago Cubs: Redefining Replacement Level

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    157. mb21 162 mb21 says:

      2012 Cubs: It’s

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    158. mb21 163 mb21 says:

      2012 Cubs: Just like always

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    159. mb21 164 mb21 says:

      2012 Cubs: The slogans are better than the team

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    160. Rizzo the Rat 165 ACT says:

      So, Keith Olbermann picked the Yankees to finish third and the Red Sox to finish fourth. Wow.

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    161. Rizzo the Rat 166 ACT says:

      @ Berselius:
      He’s better than Jered Weaver.

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    162. mb21 167 mb21 says:

      @ ACT:
      What the hell? Rays and Jays? (dying laughing)

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    163. Rizzo the Rat 168 ACT says:

      @ mb21:
      http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/keith_olbermann_2012_previews_a.l._east

      Faint heart never won fair predicting contests. I’m convinced about the winner, and taking a flier on the runners-up. It’s possible one of the Wild Cards comes out of this division but I’m not convinced any more. The Yankees and the Red Sox are not locks, and they are so not locks that I will assume New York will finally suffer the kind of position-player calamity that accelerates its decrepitude. TAMPA BAY is your champion, TORONTO second, NEW YORK third (close), BOSTON fourth, and BALTIMORE should’ve been relegated already.

      Notice how he made the list before April Fool’s Day.

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    164. mb21 169 mb21 says:

      @ ACT:
      He’s delusional and I don’t know why anyone would ever ask him for predictions again except for the sake of humor.

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    165. Rice Cube 170 Rice Cube says:

      I could sort of see one of either TB or Toronto taking the second wild card but I don’t see how they could finish ahead of the Yankees and Red Sox…on paper, anyway.

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    166. mb21 172 mb21 says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      that’s hilarious

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    167. Berselius 173 Berselius says:

      @ Rice Cube:

      (dying laughing)

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    168. josh 174 josh says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:
      I was thinking that too. I could see them doing something crazy like being in 2nd place at the ASB before losing 50 games in a row or something. Maybe the secret will be using all 10 starters

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    169. bubblesdachimp 175 bubblesdachimp says:

      Wrestlemania was amazing

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    170. 176 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      Yaniel Cabeza. A gifted catch-and-throw receiver, Cabeza was signed at the same time as Silva but has advanced more slowly as he masters English. He broke an ankle in the Instructional League and was behind in spring training.

      I’m confident at this point that Phil Rogers stopped paying attention around April 15, 1947.

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