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  • 2013 Cubs Projections: Starlin Castro

    starlin-castro-batBefore we get to Starlin Castro's 2013 Cubs Projections, I wanted to talk a little bit about something else in regard to Castro.

    An awful lot has been written about Starlin Castro over his young career. It seems that most of this has been at the two extremes. We've heard and read countless times about how Castro is a future superstar. There have also been a lot of words spilled over what Castro can't do, some of that by myself.

    While I do believe that Castro is and likely will be what you have all seen to this point in his career, there's no denying that he's a very good player. He more than earned the 7-year, $70 million contract that begins in 2013 and should easily be worth what he's being paid. He's a valuable player to any team and the Cubs are fortunate to have him for the next 7 years.

    Castro has had 1912 plate appearances in his career. He doesn't turn 23 until next month. Here are the only players since 1980 that had more plate appearances than Castro through their age 22 season: Adrian Beltre (1918), Roberto Alomar (1959), Alex Rodriguez (2271), Edgar Renteria (2395) and Ken Griffey Jr. (2422). One of them is already in the HOF and two others should be.

    Just behind Castro is Andruw Jones, Elvis Andrus, Ruben Sierra, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Miguel Cabrera.

    Since 1980, only Griffey, A-Rod and Renteria have more hits than the 529 that Castro already has.

    This isn't related to Castro who doesn't rank highly in home runs among these players, but I saw something that surprised me. A-Rod has the most home runs through age 22 of this group with 106. You might have guessed Griffey was next, but it's Giancarlo Stanton with 93. Oh yeah, Stanton has done that in 1498 plate appearances. Among players 22 and under since 1980, nobody has had the power that Stanton has shown so far. Albert Pujols has a higher slugging percentage, but Stanton has the highest ISO and he's done it in a pitcher's park. I didn't realize that.

    Castro has been in the league a long time at this point in his career and the names around him are generally very good players.

    2013 Cubs Projections

    Projection PA H 2B 3B HR BB SO avg obp slg wOBA
    CAIRO 633 170 31 7 11 35 86 .288 .329 .421 .328
    ZiPS 680 187 31 12 14 36 88 .294 .332 .446 .333
    Average 656 178 31 9 13 35 87 .291 .331 .433 .330

    ZiPS is projecting 4 WAR in total while CAIRO is projecting 2.5. PECOTA projects 3.1.

    Below are his percentile forecasts, but ignore the PA at the higher end. Castro is projected for so many plate appearances that the spreadsheet I'm using spits out an unrealistic number of PA.

    Starlin Castro
    % PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
    80% 759 708 98 219 44 12 17 83 28 9 49 92 14 7 .310 .363 .478 .367
    65% 696 649 85 194 37 9 14 71 23 10 42 89 15 6 .299 .347 .449 .348
    Baseline 633 590 73 170 31 7 11 61 19 11 35 86 16 4 .288 .330 .420 .328
    35% 569 531 62 147 25 5 8 51 15 11 29 82 16 3 .277 .314 .392 .309
    20% 506 472 52 125 20 3 6 43 12 11 23 76 16 2 .266 .297 .363 .290

    Other 2013 Cubs projections

    dmick89
    When I awoke, the Dire Wolf, six hundred pounds of sin, Was grinning at my window, all I said was "Come on in"
    dmick89
    dmick89
    Contact me here

    121 Responses to “2013 Cubs Projections: Starlin Castro”

    1. Myles 1 Myles says:

      Something to remember:

      .300 is the average wOBA of a SS last year. EVEN IF Castro only hits his 35% projection, he’s a fair bit above average. It’s no secret I’m bullish on Starlin, and I think .300/.340/.450 is within the realm of plausibility. That would be pretty much dynamite.

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    2. Myles 2 Myles says:

      It’s also weird that CAIRO projects an OPS lower than any one he’s ever had.

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    3. dmick89 3 dmick89 says:

      @ Myles:
      It could be the league average for CAIRO is projected to be worse. Their wOBA projection is right about where I expect him to end the season.

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    4. 4 Ryno says:

      *comment about baseball*

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    5. Mucker 5 Mucker says:

      I love Castro but I worry about his BB%. He’s been pretty lucky in his career so far(.334 BABIP) so it would be great to have his BB% increase in the event that his BABIP regresses…….if it actually does. If it doesn’t regress and he’s able to increase his BB%, then we could be talking about one of the best offensive SS in the league.

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    6. Myles 6 Myles says:

      Mucker wrote:

      I love Castro but I worry about his BB%. He’s been pretty lucky in his career so far(.334 BABIP) so it would be great to have his BB% increase in the event that his BABIP regresses…….if it actually does. If it doesn’t regress and he’s able to increase his BB%, then we could be talking about one of the best offensive SS in the league.

      Some players just have high BABIPs. I think Castro is one of those players (and he’s a little lucky).

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    7. 7 Ryno says:

      The buzz is that, despite being a faget, Manti Te’o won’t make it out of the first round. Ray Lewis replacement?

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    8. Mucker 8 Mucker says:

      @ Ryno:
      Really? Teams must really like his tape. I heard he said that he runs in the 4.5 range. I don’t see how he runs that slow at the combine if he’s 4.5. Unless he had an injury. Even though it was only one game, I thought he got exposed against Bama. To me he didn’t look like he had the strength to play against NFL talent.

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    9. Myles 9 Myles says:

      I think ~.320 is a reasonable BABIP for the next 5 years or so. Similar players have managed that.

      That’s another interesting thing about Castro. I’m not sure how CAIRO projects players, but there just aren’t many comps to Starlin because his career arc (so far) is pretty rare.

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    10. josh 10 josh says:

      @ Mucker:
      I don’t see it happening. He doesn’t have a great batter’s eye and I doubt he’ll grow one. I think he’ll get his hits, but he’s always going to be Vlad mixed with Ichiro. Just hovering around pretty good, but never an OBP guy. Probably should hit lower, but then again, his OBP = BA may still be about the best this team can offer.

      Reading Baseball between the Numbers has just left me still scratching my head on Sveum (as manager). I get the choice less and less as time goes on. I’m about sick of “baseball guy” managers who think being smart is doing exactly what everyone has else has done for the last thirty years, or however long ago they started playing.

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    11. josh 11 josh says:

      @ Myles:
      He’ll slap-hit his way into our hearts for sure. Unless teams start playing him right up the middle. Then he’s screwed.

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    12. Mucker 12 Mucker says:

      @ josh:
      I always thought Castro had a discipline issue not a recognition issue. Idk, I just remember scratching my head after some of his at bats.

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    13. Mucker 13 Mucker says:

      @ Mucker:
      Whoever takes him I hope to god it’s not the Bears. He’s the new Tebow. They show him or talk about him every 5 seconds on sports channels. I’m sick of him already.

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    14. EnricoPallazzo 14 EnricoPallazzo says:

      GBTS wrote:

      I would expect this is a clever way to divert money away from Todd so he stops blowing his money on action figures.

      blowing money on action figures>>>>>signing dioner navarro

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    15. 15 Ryno says:

      @ Mucker:

      I don’t think you can believe anything you “hear” between the combine and the draft.

      I think he’s basically the same player as James Laurinaitis (but apparently more of a faget) who went No. 38. He’s also pretty similar to Maualuga, who went No. 35. That’s about where I’d be comfortable picking him.

      You could have a team that feels pretty set going into this season and feels Te’o would be a significant upgrade. A team like DEN or BAL might like him enough to draft him in their current slot if they can’t trade into the early second.

      And it would be a massive overdraft, imo, if CHI used pick 20 on him. Now if they wanted to trade back to No. 31…

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    16. WaLi 16 WaLi says:

      @ EnricoPallazzo:
      His line in Spring Training so far is .333/.500/1.333/1.833, second only to Valbuena Plus he is ambidexterous. That is something you just can’t teach.

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    17. Mucker 17 Mucker says:

      @ Ryno:
      Did you call the 49ers yet? Are they interested in trading up to #20? I remember you said they might be targeting somebody.

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    18. WaLi 18 WaLi says:

      @ Ryno:
      I agree with this. I’m not a huge Te’o fan, but if we can somehow grab him with our 2nd round pick (or trade our 1st down) then I’d be happy with that. Also, wouldn’t the Bears be a perfect fit for him? “I told you, I’m not gay, I’m a Bear!”

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    19. 19 Ryno says:

      @ Mucker:

      They stopped taking my calls years ago…

      I think that trade I proposed makes a lot of sense for both teams. I think the players valued at No. 31 and No. 20 match up better with CHI and SF respectively, plus CHI would add a third, which they don’t have.

      SF has 14 picks right now, and they would be best served using them to move up. CHI has fewer picks. It makes so much sense for both teams.

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    20. Mucker 20 Mucker says:

      @ Ryno:
      I agree and I would love for the Bears to get that 3rd rounder back. I hope they do something like that.

      I don’t know if you know but yesterday when CB Steve Williams ran those insanely fast 40s, his official time was .17 slower than his unofficial best and when they showed him running in the simulcast with all the other fast times, he smoked them. Do you feel that the official times at the combine are off?

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    21. 21 Ryno says:

      @ WaLi:

      Some will probably disagree, but I don’t think Te’o is a good fit for CHI. I think he’s too stiff to cover the seam in a Cover 2.

      For CHI, I like Khaseem Greene or Sio Moore in the second, Kiko Alonso in the third or Kevin Reddick in the fourth.

      If I’m a Bears fan, I’m rooting for a the trade with SF, BPA in the first, Kyle Long in the second, Kiko Alonso in the third and Jordan Mills (OT, La. Tech) in the fourth.

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    22. 22 Ryno says:

      Holy shit. Twitter says Alex Smith to KC for No. 34 overall plus a 2014 pick.

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    23. Mucker 23 Mucker says:

      @ Ryno:
      Wow………That’s crazy.

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    24. 24 Ryno says:

      @ Mucker:

      The value in this draft is the middle of the first and somewhere around the mid-second through the third. A team like CHI could fix their OL with two third rounders, imo.

      I didn’t see the times yesterday, but I would think the official times are pretty accurate. That said, I bet the scouts are all going by their own times.

      Speaking of, Gil Brandt said he clocked Marquise Goodwin at 4.19. Effortless runner.

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    25. 25 Ryno says:

      @ Mucker:

      Early reports suggest the 2014 pick could be a 2 as well.

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    26. WaLi 26 WaLi says:

      Ryno wrote:

      I think that trade I proposed makes a lot of sense for both teams. I think the players valued at No. 31 and No. 20 match up better with CHI and SF respectively, plus CHI would add a third, which they don’t have.

      Do teams still use that point value chart thing? A No. 20 (850) for a No. 31 (600) and No. 95 (120) doesn’t make sense for the Bears. A #20 for a #31 and a #63 (276) makes a lot more sense for the Bears. Plus if the 49ers just picked up another 2nd…

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    27. 27 Ryno says:

      If that report is true, I like the CHI/SF trade even more.

      SF
      1(20)
      2(1)
      2(31)
      3(31)

      CHI
      1(31)
      2(20)
      3(12)

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    28. josh 28 josh says:

      @ Mucker:
      I think he has a pretty bad case of both, mixed in with enough contact to make up for it. His patience may improve (many do not, and that may be because they have early success in traditional stats). You don’t usually see batting eye improve much, I don’t think.

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    29. 29 Edwin says:

      @ Ryno:

      You may have covered this earlier, but how likely is it that the Bears draft a TE at some point in the draft, and will they be in the market for a “speed” WR to replace Knox?

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    30. 30 Ryno says:

      @ WaLi:

      I had them mixed up. SF’s 1 and CAR’s 3 (76) for CHI’s 1.

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    31. 31 Ryno says:

      @ Edwin:

      If CHI is moving to a WCO as reported, they’ll need a TE like Ertz, Eifert or Escobar, imo. The move to WCO lessens the need to improve the OL. It still needs to be done, but it can be done in rounds 2-3 instead of 1.

      They’d be wise to grab a slot guy like Ace Sanders later as well.

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    32. Mucker 32 Mucker says:

      @ Ryno:
      PFT reporting that the deal is done and just waiting until they can actually do the trade in 2 weeks.

      Goodwin is fast.

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    33. MJK 33 MJK says:

      Bottom half of the future power rankings went up on Insider today. Brewers 27th, Pirates 25th. Cubs are somewhere in the top 15 which go up tomorrow, White Sox are 26th.

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    34. 34 Ryno says:

      @ Mucker:

      That 2 is huge. I can’t believe that. Now FIVE picks from 31 to 93.

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    35. 35 Ryno says:

      I think it’s odd that they took anothe 2013 pick when they already have 14, though. They must be targetting a move up in the draft…or maybe a current player (Harvin? Revis?).

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    36. Berselius 36 Berselius says:

      One of them is already in the HOF and two others should be.

      Which of Griffey, and Beltre doesn’t belong on the HOF? They both seem like slam dunk cases to me.

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    37. Suburban kid 37 Suburban kid says:

      THat Ricketts/Hayward deal does not look like anything evil or even disingenuous. They’re just taking Hayward and his team and turning them into a business that can serve other customers as well as the Cubs, with Ricketts getting a piece of the action. If MO were still alive, he would call this the logical extension of Ricketts’ interests — the productization of the golly gee Wrigley vibe. Long before Rant Sports called Theo a snake oil salesman (dying laughing), MO was insulting describing Ricketts with that that term. Wally will be Assistant to the Regional Director of Snake Oil Sales to Ricketts’ Director.

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    38. Berselius 38 Berselius says:

      Ryno wrote:

      If CHI is moving to a WCO as reported, they’ll need a TE like Ertz, Eifert or Escobar, imo. The move to WCO lessens the need to improve the OL. It still needs to be done, but it can be done in rounds 2-3 instead of 1.

      Sign Finley – the fanbase is already used to TEs with drop issues.

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    39. Berselius 39 Berselius says:

      @ MJK:

      Who was 32? Angels?

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    40. Mucker 40 Mucker says:

      @ Ryno:
      I’m really curious to see what the 49ers do with all those picks. They are a relatively young team already so if they draft smart…….I think we are looking at another 49er dynasty.

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    41. MJK 41 MJK says:

      @ Berselius:

      No 32 in baseball. Rockies are 30th with a whopping 16.2/100.

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    42. 42 Akabari says:

      So Marlon Byrd got a job as a Met, huh? (dying laughing)

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    43. WaLi 43 WaLi says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      Right, I don’t see anything wrong with it either. I’m just not sure how different what Ricketts is doing is any different that Loria. The only difference is (as RC pointed out?) is that Loria is evil and Ricketts is a saint.

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    44. 44 Ryno says:

      @ Berselius:

      You leave Finley alone! He showed…great courage.

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    45. GBTS 45 GBTS says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      Right. I’m curious as to what the precise accusation against Loria was for doing the same thing. I don’t know what his personal ownership interest is in the Marlins. I assume its as close to 100% as the Ricketts and the Cubs.

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    46. Suburban kid 46 Suburban kid says:

      @ WaLi:
      I’m not sure, but I would guess the Loria thing is just a construct to avoid or limit (not evade) certain personal taxes, i.e. a tax efficient way of paying himself.

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    47. GBTS 47 GBTS says:

      @ Berselius:
      How is his general demeanor? It seems like he has problems getting along with Aaron Rodgers, who we all know is Just Having Fun Out There.

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    48. 48 Ryno says:

      @ Mucker:

      Exactly, and the key to that is DRAFT smart.

      Don’t trade for Percy Harvin. Draft Goodwin, Austin or Stedman Bailey.

      Don’t trade for Revis. Draft Johnthan Banks, Darius Slay or Jordan Poyer. Hell, draft two of them and move Culliver to S where he belongs.

      SF has a need for four starters (WR, DB, DE/NT and K) and depth at 7-8 positions. They’re armed to take care of all their needs in the draft. No free agents needed.

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    49. Suburban kid 49 Suburban kid says:

      @ GBTS:
      It seemed to be a cheap shot by Passan. He said something about Loria “paying himself to own the Marlins”. Yeah, like, so what.

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    50. 50 Ryno says:

      @ GBTS:

      He left Texas after his RS sophomore season, so he’s clearly a degenerate who sells drugs to kids.

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    51. Berselius 51 Berselius says:

      Ryno wrote:

      @ Berselius:
      You leave Finley alone! He showed…great courage.

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    52. Rice Cube 52 Rice Cube says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      If he had said something like “Loria gets paid by other people to own the Marlins” then it might have worked better. Maybe? *shrug*

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    53. Mucker 53 Mucker says:

      @ Ryno:
      Especially when it seems players are more prepared to start out of college. With all those picks, they should be able to get a starter for at least 3 of those needs and maybe all of them.

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    54. Mucker 54 Mucker says:

      J’Marcus Webb——>Pothead

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    55. 55 Ryno says:

      I can’t help it. I know no one here cares, but I’m too giddy about this trade to not do an updated mock draf (four rounds)t. I’m going to be lazy and base it on nfldraftscout’s player rankings…

      1. Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama – Three-down NT will improve pass rush.
      2. Jonathan Cyprien, S, FIU – Let Whitner walk and have two Dashon Goldsons at S.
      2. Darius Slay, CB, MSU – The secondary is now fixed. kthanxbai
      3. Gavin Escobar, TE, SDSU – I think he goes higher than this, but having him and Vernon Davis on the field at the same time will be a matchup nightmare for defenses.
      3. Stedman Bailey, WR, WVU – Ibid…even more so.
      4. David Quessenbery, OT, SJSU – Much-needed OL depth.
      4. Cory Lemonier, OLB, Auburn – Like Escobar, I think he goes higher than this. OLB depth.
      4. Bennie Logan, DE, LSU – High-motor 5-tech who can spell Justin Smith until he’s ready to start.

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    56. 56 Ryno says:

      @ Berselius:

      More like…

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    57. 57 Ryno says:

      @ Mucker:

      Thanks to the Simpsons (and Phish), I now read that as PO-theed.

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    58. 58 Ryno says:

      @ Mucker:

      Check out my mock draft. High-upside players everywhere needed, with three 5s, two 6s and two 7s to use on a kicker and QB. I’d take AZ QB Matt Scott with a 5 or Duke QB Sean Renferee with a 6. Then one of the Florida Ks in the sixth.

      This draft is huge for SF. Reload here, and we’re set for a run like NE had in the 00s. Whiff, and we’ll decline like we did in the late 90s.

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    59. Rice Cube 59 Rice Cube says:

      Rany said:

      @jazayerli
      I feel like the Chiefs fans who say Alex Smith was worth the price are the same Royals fans who said James Shields was worth the price.

      Did a trade just happen?

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    60. josh 60 josh says:

      @ Akabari:
      I really think Byrd’s story is age-decline which led to PEDs, but it could just as easily be that he was using, then declined and took more to make up for it, which made him careless and led to him getting caught.

      I loved that his quote was something like “You have to be a real idiot to get caught using PEDs, and I was one of those idiots.”

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    61. 61 Ryno says:

      Ryno wrote:

      Holy shit. Twitter says Alex Smith to KC for No. 34 overall plus a 2014 pick.

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    62. 62 Ryno says:

      @ Rice Cube:

      If only this were a football site…

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    63. Rice Cube 63 Rice Cube says:

      @ Ryno:
      I assume this is why Rany was a bit put off.

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    64. Rice Cube 64 Rice Cube says:

      @ Ryno:

      It might be fun to see the Hope Monster wearing a Bears helmet ;)

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    65. 65 Ryno says:

      Vontae Davis ‏@VontaeDavis23 1 hr ago
      I seen my dude Sean Smith last night he said he talking to KC him & B Flowers will makes a good Duo.

      Hey, Vontae, you’re going to get Sean Smith and KC in trouble if you say that…

      Vontae Davis ‏@VontaeDavis23 42 min ago
      My Twitter was Hack I did not see Sean Smith last night!!

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    66. 66 Ryno says:

      @ Rice Cube:

      Is Rany a Chiefs fan? Or someone who doesn’t like the Niners?

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    67. Rice Cube 67 Rice Cube says:

      @ Ryno:
      I think since he writes about the Royals and was from KC that he is in fact a Chiefs fan and not an anti-49ers fan.

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    68. 68 Ryno says:

      @ Rice Cube:

      I’m not good with hints. What are you saying?

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    69. 69 Ryno says:

      @ Rice Cube:

      Then yeah, that’ll do it.

      Honestly, though, I think it’s a pretty good deal for both teams. Alex Smith is 28 and has eight years experience in the NFL. He’s a good fit for Reid’s system and he won’t cost a ton. He also gives you 3-4 years to find the QB of the future, but can give you eight years if you need.

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    70. Rice Cube 70 Rice Cube says:

      @ Ryno:
      I am saying that if this were to become a football blog, the Hope Monster would need a few cosmetic changes.

      By the way, there is baseball to be listened to on MLB.com *yay*

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    71. 71 Akabari says:

      @ josh:
      Yeah he always seemed to be a workhorse type guy, and the pressures of being that guy,especially on a team where you KNOW any valuable assets will be flipped and the non valuable ones will be caught, were probably harder than I can imagine.
      I wasn’t making a moral judgement so much as “The Mets fucking suck and will take anybody on” sort of thing.
      Then again, we DID spend any amount of money on Koyie Hill..

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    72. WaLi 72 WaLi says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      What is this “baseball” you speak of?

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    73. 73 Akabari says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      How do I listen to games? It just keeps telling to me to buy AtBat?

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    74. 74 Ryno says:

      @ Akabari:

      ALT+F4.

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    75. Mish 75 Mish says:

      Good article on sabermetricians.

      http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/42043552/

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    76. 76 Akabari says:

      Also, from ESPNChicago

      “It was a good idea at first,” Al Yellon, who runs bleedcubbieblue.com, said of the Cubs’ decision to allow celebrities to take over the job the late Harry Caray handled so famously for so many years. “But it turned into a celebrity fest with D-list celebrities.

      Really glad Espn finds good people to interview.
      MD needs in on this

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    77. Rice Cube 77 Rice Cube says:

      @ Akabari:
      You shouldn’t have to. That’s strange.

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    78. 78 Ryno says:

      @ Akabari:

      “It was a good idea at first,” Al Yellon, who runs bleedcubbieblue.com, said of the Cubs’ decision to allow celebrities to take over the job the late Harry Caray handled so famously for so many years. “But it turned into a celebrity fest with D-list celebrities.

      Interesting take, Alvin. So the Cub’s decision to allow celebrities into the booth turned into a celebrity fest?

      If he meant that the duties were handled by mostly D-list celebrities, you’d think a master wordsmith would have crafted a clearer quote.

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    79. 79 gbts22 says:

      Alvin, what did you think of the 2012 Cubs?

      “It was a good idea at first, but then it turned into a baseball team, and it became apparent they were mediocre.”

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    80. 80 Ryno says:

      “It was a good idea at first,” Al Yellon, who runs bleedcubbieblue.com, said of the Happy Chandler’s decision to allow blacks to play MLB. “But it turned into a baseball league with negroes.”

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    81. 81 PFD says:

      Castro just pulled up lame around first base. Saweeeet.

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    82. Mucker 82 Mucker says:

      “It was a good idea at first,” Al Yellon, who runs bleedcubbieblue.com, said of the Cubs decision to trade speedy youngster Tony Campana to Arizona. “But the trade just happened and you’re asking me what I think? I’ll wait awhile thanks.”

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    83. Mucker 83 Mucker says:

      “It was a good idea at first,” Al Yellon, who runs bleedcubbieblue.com, said of the Cubs’ decision to allow celebrities to take over the job the late Harry Caray handled so famously for so many years. “But it turned into a celebrity fest with D-list celebrities.” When told the Cubs said they were A-list celebrities, Yellon said “Amusing, but wrong!”

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    84. WenningtonsGorillaCock 84 WenningtonsGorillaCock says:

      “It was a good idea at first,” Al Yellon, who runs bleedcubbieblue.com, said of ESPN’s decision to interview Al Yellon. “But it turned into an interview with a D-list baseball blogger.”

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    85. 85 Chet Masterson says:

      @ josh:

      It should be noted that Castro revamped his approach mid-season in 2012 and in Aug – Oct last season he drew 20 walks (255 PA), compared to 16 in April – July (436 PA).

      I obviously have no idea if he’ll keep that up, but I do think it warrants mentioning.

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    86. Mish 86 Mish says:

      Al Yellon wrote:

      “It was a good idea at first

      It’s a thing of beauty watching a meme go from conception to full vaginal birth.

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    87. GBTS 87 GBTS says:

      @ Mish:
      FLAGGED

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    88. dmick89 88 dmick89 says:

      FWIW, Castro has not surprisingly had months in which he’s shown better plate discipline, but overall it’s been pretty bad. Maybe he did improve. I don’t know, but a couple months isn’t nearly enough to know for sure as Chet mentioned. The 1st half of 2010 remains the best half of a season in which he’s had the best walk rate. I hope he did improved, but his August BB% last year is the only month in which it’s not necessarily bad (9% in August and 5+% and 6+% in July and September). His improvement seems to be around a more patient August.

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    89. dmick89 89 dmick89 says:

      Regarding his BABIP, I think we should expect a little higher than .300, but I wouldn’t expect .340ish like Myles. Last year it was .315.

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    90. Myles 90 Myles says:

      dmick89 wrote:

      Regarding his BABIP, I think we should expect a little higher than .300, but I wouldn’t expect .340ish like Myles. Last year it was .315.

      My earlier expectation was ~.320.

      Myles wrote:

      I think ~.320 is a reasonable BABIP for the next 5 years or so. Similar players have managed that.
      That’s another interesting thing about Castro. I’m not sure how CAIRO projects players, but there just aren’t many comps to Starlin because his career arc (so far) is pretty rare.

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    91. Myles 91 Myles says:

      Only 68 people in history (with over 500 PA) have a career BABIP of .340 or more. If you expand the window to .320, you get 323 players, many of whom are not especially notable.

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    92. dmick89 92 dmick89 says:

      Sorry Myles. Was thinking you said .340. I can’t read.

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    93. SVB 93 SVB says:

      Sometimes when I’m bored and the computer is on my lap, I turn to BRef and other baseball trivia pages. Now is one of those times. So happy 117th birthday to Will Koenigsmark, who has one of the best worst cup of coffee box scores out there (Sept 10, 1919).

      He enters in the 8th inning of his only MLB appearance against Brooklyn. He promptly gives up 2 R on 2H and a BB on 0 IP, facing 5 batters. His ERA is infinity for infinity.

      I know, you are probably thinking that I’m being a sh**head for using ole’ Will’s birthday to highlight his futility. That certainly isn’t a good way to treat a Cub, even one who’s been dead for 41 years.

      He was a Cardinal.

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    94. SVB 94 SVB says:

      Matt Stairs, Craig Monroe, Willie Banks, Carl Warwick, Sammy Taylor, LeRoy Herrmann, and Bud Teachout were all ex-Cubs with birthdays today, but I didn’t feel like talking about their unremarkable careers with the Cubs.

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    95. Rice Cube 95 Rice Cube says:

      @ SVB:
      I liked Matt Stairs.

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    96. SVB 96 SVB says:

      Stairs is a pretty funny guy, and seemed to have a knack for timely hits, but his one year as a Cub wasn’t terribly remarkable.

      Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
      2001 33 CHC 128 403 340 48 85 21 0 17 61 2 3 52 76 .250 .358 .462 .820 115

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    97. Rice Cube 97 Rice Cube says:

      @ SVB:
      Wasn’t that the year that Sosa was like 100+ RBI over the next highest Cub total, and that next highest was Stairs? To the internet!

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    98. Rice Cube 98 Rice Cube says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      Oh wait, Ricky Gutierrez was #2 in RBI. Stairs was #3. And Sosa was other-worldly. But not as awesome as Bonds.

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    99. 99 Ryno says:

      “It was a good idea at first,” TheHawk, who runs badnewscubs.com, said of the Cubs decision to trade speedy youngster Tony Campana to Arizona. “But the statfags were too busy reading every word and playing with their ZORPS to enjoy it. Such poetry”

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    100. josh 100 josh says:

      @ SVB:
      But he was almost exclusively a pinch hitter. I think its like with a LOOGY, you have to almost look situation by situation to determine his impact.

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    101. josh 101 josh says:

      @ dmick89:
      So long as everyone validates his approach because he accumulates hits, he has little motivation to change. Then again, its probable that there isn’t a ton of change a guy can make after a certain point in his life (I’m not being confessional).

      Bring in Sosa as a special consultant?

      http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/3/10/2038583/developing-plate-discipline

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    102. Mucker 102 Mucker says:

      WaltersFootball.com has the Bears going Tavon Austin WR, Kyle Long OT, and Dion Sims TE for first three picks…….fuck yeah!!! You could substitute Sims for the best available OG or leave it alone but that would be an excellent draft for the Bears IMO.

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    103. 103 Ryno says:

      @ Mucker:

      That would definitely fix the offense, but don’t you guys need like two starting LBs? FA will be very important for CHI, imo. If they can land one LB and one OL, the draft will be that much easier.

      And walterfootball is terrible. The guys at nfldraftscout are good, but they only do one-rounders usually. The guys at bleacherreport and mockingthedraft are good too.

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    104. 104 Ryno says:

      So it sounds like the Smith trade is for No. 34 this year and a conditional 3 next year (moving to a 2 if KC wins a certain number of games).

      Reports are that SF is gearing up for a run at Revis, and I’m not sure I like that. If you want to take a chance on an experienced CB coming off an injury, go after Brent Grimes. If it’s just a vet you want, go after Chris Houston.

      I’d rather conserve resources, since we’ll need to extend a LOT of players after next season.

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    105. Mucker 105 Mucker says:

      @ Ryno:
      Yeah but I believe they will bring back Roach and/or Hayes and they could still bring back Urlacher depending on what he wants. FA is important but unfortunately the Bears have some work to do because they only have $10.5 million in cap and they have to resign Melton still. I think the Bears need to get better on offense because the Def is still good for another 2-3 years and that’s their window I think.

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    106. 106 Chet Masterson says:

      @ dmick89:

      Right – I’m not trying to say his walk rate improvement is a guarantee, just that during last season it was acknowledged he made a conscious change to his approach, or at least attempted to change.

      The thing about his first half of 2010 is that he batted 8th quite frequently increasing the likelihood that he’d be walked or pitched around. 7 of his 29 walks in 2010 were of the intentional variety. In 2011 he had 2 IBB and 5 in 2012.

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    107. 107 mobile svb says:

      I wasn’t saying matt stairs was bad. Only that I thought Kowningsmark was a more interesting story than stairs one yr with the cubs. A good question might be why the cubs didn’t reaign him.

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    108. 108 Ryno says:

      @ Mucker:

      ‘twould be wise to restructure Peppers and Tillman.

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    109. dmick89 109 dmick89 says:

      @ Chet Masterson:
      Good point about the IBB.

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    110. Mish 110 Mish says:

      Honestly, Ryno is just a gift from the gods on this NFL Draft blog.

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    111. Mucker 111 Mucker says:

      @ Ryno:
      ‘twouldn’t it? They can creat some pretty decent cap space if they can restructure a couple of contracts….specifically Tillman and Peppers.

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    112. josh 112 josh says:

      @ mobile svb:
      I think they had cheaper options for backups, but I don’t recall. The guy was a journeyman in the literal sense of the word.

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    113. dmick89 113 dmick89 says:

      @ mobile svb:
      Hee Seop Choi

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    114. 114 Ryno says:

      Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter
      ESPN’s Chris Mortensen said a source told him the 49ers are not inclined to pursue Darrelle Revis at this time. So there’s that.


      Now we can be friends again.

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    115. 115 Ryno says:

      @ Mish:

      I honestly don’t like all the baseball talk. It’s distracting. Maybe they need to create a subforum.

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    116. Mish 116 Mish says:

      @ Ryno:
      Maybe I’ll start a thread in the off-topic forum. (dying laughing)

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    117. Mish 117 Mish says:

      Altho I am sincere; I don’t do NFL prospecting and am not CFB fan so Ryno’s draft notes are very enlightening to me. I don’t know why someone neg’d my post above. (dying laughing)

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    118. josh 118 josh says:

      Castro hurt his hamstring. He says it’s not bad, so I figure he’ll be out at least 6 weeks.

      We might not win the Division if that’s true.

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    119. Mish 119 Mish says:

      God you guys are the worst. THE. WORST.

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    120. WenningtonsGorillaCock 120 WenningtonsGorillaCock says:

      josh wrote:

      Castro hurt his hamstring. He says it’s not bad, so I figure he’ll be out at least 6 weeks.
      We might not win the Division if that’s true.

      A lot of you folks are missing some key data and yet you insist on blovating

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