Our 2013 Cubs Projections series continues with a look at 3rd base. The starting job is Ian Stewart's according to Dale Sveum, which leaves Luis Valbuena as a back-up, but even that job may be in question. It's hard to see both Valbuena and Brent Lillibridge making the roster.
I wrote a little bit about Ian Stewart a couple weeks ago when wrote about the four most likely to exceed expectations. Instead of rewriting what I already did, I'll just quote what I wrote then.
In 2003, Ian Stewart was picked in the 1st round by the Rockies (10th overall). After posting a .959 OPS in rookie league at the age of 18, Baseball America ranked him the top Rockies prospect, as well as ranking him 57th best in baseball.
The future only looked brighter for Stewart after the 2004 season in which he hit .319/.398/.594 in A ball at the age of 19. Baseball America rewarded him by ranking him the 4th best prospect in baseball. Only Joe Mauer, Felix Hernandez and Delmon Young were ranked higher in 2005.
Colorado hasn't had a hitter like Stewart in its system since Helton. Stewart punishes good fastballs and has the strength and hand speed to wait back and drive offspeed stuff. He has good plate coverage and learned to use the whole field during the season. He adjusted when SAL pitchers began throwing him junk, and did damage at both Asheville's cozy McCormick Field (.621 slugging percentage) and on the road (.568). Stewart has average speed, and he's a savvy and aggressive baserunner. While he fell short of his goal of a 30-30 season, he did steal 19 bases in 28 attempts. Defensively, he has an above-average arm. Along with his tools, Stewart has strong desire. He wants to be an all-star and a Gold Glove third baseman, and he's willing to do what it takes to get there. The Rockies rave about his work ethic and focus on team goals.
Stewart remained in Baseball America's top 50 propects each each year through 2008. He never fell off the map by performing poorly, but his OPS's the next three years in the low to mid .800s forced us to drop the high expectations earlier in his career.
His first three years a the big league level he had respectable wOBA's. The wRC+ was better than league average in his rookie season, but slightly below the following two years. He then hurt his wrist in 2011 and was horrible in nearly 150 plate appearances. He wasn't too good for the Cubs last season either.
He's now had surgery to fix the wrist and is reportedly healthy. We could easily see Stewart return to the .330-.340ish wOBA we saw before the injury. There's also the possibility of him even being better than that. He's always had tremendous talent and is an example of a highly ranked prospect who simply did not work out. Maybe the Cubs could get lucky.
| Ian Stewart | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA |
| CAIRO | 339 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 87 | .216 | .302 | .384 | .304 |
| ZiPS | 328 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 96 | .210 | .296 | .376 | .286 |
| Average | 333 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 91 | .213 | .299 | .380 | .295 |
CAIRO seems to think that he might be somewhat useful while ZiPS has him projected only slightly better than Alfredo Amezaga. He's projected to be average to slightly below average on defense and just slightly below average on the bases.
Here are his percentile forecasts.
| Ian Stewart | ||||||||||||||||||
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| 80% | 407 | 361 | 61 | 88 | 20 | 4 | 17 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 48 | 93 | 4 | 6 | .243 | .347 | .463 | .357 |
| 65% | 373 | 331 | 52 | 76 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 4 | 1 | 41 | 91 | 5 | 4 | .229 | .324 | .423 | .330 |
| Baseline | 339 | 301 | 44 | 65 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 87 | 6 | 3 | .216 | .301 | .382 | .302 |
| 35% | 305 | 271 | 37 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 82 | 7 | 2 | .203 | .278 | .341 | .275 |
| 20% | 271 | 241 | 30 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 77 | 7 | 1 | .189 | .255 | .301 | .248 |
I had said that it's fairly easy to see him having a wOBA in the .330 range and that would be hist 65th percentile. I would not expect it. I'm thinking something around .300, but who knows how it ends up?
I don't want to spend too much time on Luis Valbuena's 2013 Cubs projections because he may not even make the team. I did find it interesting that both CAIRO and ZiPS project Valbuena to be the better player.
| Luis Valbuena | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA |
| ZiPS | 548 | 121 | 27 | 2 | 11 | 51 | 116 | .247 | .319 | .378 | .305 |
| CAIRO | 467 | 102 | 24 | 1 | 10 | 46 | 97 | .245 | .324 | .381 | .314 |
| Average | 508 | 112 | 25 | 2 | 11 | 48 | 107 | .246 | .321 | .379 | .310 |
To be fair, both PECOTA and Steamer project Ian Stewart to be better. I'd guess the average of their pojections if we included as many as possible would be about equal to one another. It would probably favor Stewart a bit, but not by much. Here are Valbuena's percentile forecasts.
| Luis Valbuena | ||||||||||||||||||
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| 80% | 560 | 502 | 71 | 135 | 35 | 2 | 16 | 80 | 7 | 2 | 63 | 105 | 7 | 6 | .268 | .363 | .441 | .358 |
| 65% | 514 | 460 | 61 | 118 | 29 | 2 | 13 | 69 | 6 | 2 | 54 | 101 | 8 | 4 | .256 | .343 | .410 | .336 |
| Baseline | 467 | 418 | 52 | 102 | 24 | 1 | 10 | 59 | 4 | 3 | 46 | 97 | 9 | 3 | .244 | .323 | .378 | .314 |
| 35% | 420 | 376 | 44 | 87 | 19 | 0 | 8 | 50 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 92 | 9 | 2 | .232 | .303 | .346 | .291 |
| 20% | 374 | 334 | 36 | 74 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 85 | 10 | 1 | .220 | .283 | .315 | .269 |
It's kind of too bad that both of these guys hit right-handed. They'd probably make a pretty good platoon if one of them hit left-handed
i’d be extremely satisfied with those 65% numbers.
I knew what you meant, but I can’t resist an opportunity to use Inigo.
RC:
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1320&dat=19920512&id=7kNWAAAAIBAJ&sjid=e-oDAAAAIBAJ&pg=1597,3556888
Is there a story that explains why Pink Floyd used the cow on its album cover?
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/02/20/baffoe-lets-mock-cubs-fans-heartbroken-over-tony-campana/
@ Ryno:
It’s too bad Marino never won a Super Bowl.
Saw this via Tango’s blog:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/torre-continues-to-resist-changes-on-home-plate-collisions/
Awesome.
@ Ryno:
Isn’t that similar to how we’ll hear about players who may or may not be 100% healthy come draft time? I don’t even pay attention to the NFL, but I hear about it. It’s also common in the MLB draft. Sometimes it’s probably a legitimate concern, but sometimes it’s just thrown out there to lower a player’s signing bonus or to get a team that picks higher to pass.
@ SVB:
Yes.
http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/8963926/documents-south-florida-clinic-heart-mlb-performance-enhancing-drugs-investigation-link-five-baseball-players
Reigning NL stolen base champion ——> PEDs
America ——-> *yawn*
@ Rice Cube:
Yes. Especially since that apparently makes him a worse player.
@ SVB:
Not that I know of.
@ dmick89:
There will be many varying reports about health leading up to the draft. Clemson DE Da’Quan Bowers (the guy who was caught with a gun in his carry-on at LaGuardia) was a top-5 talent going into the ’11 draft. Questions about his knees left him off several teams’ boards and pushed him down to the mid-second round.
Unfounded rumors of drugs, crime and injury have probably changed most of the drafts, but I would think that any NFL team considering drafting a player today will trust their own evaluations.
@ Ryno:
Any given Sunday…
Plus, y’know, running into Joe Montana and friends doesn’t help.
Ryno wrote:
That’s kind of what I’ve thought. Why would a team trust rumors at this point? Doesn’t make much sense.
Just for fun, I’m going to do my all-draft-eligible team.
Offense
QB: Geno Smith, WVU
RB: Eddie Lacy, Ala.
WR: Cordarrelle Patterson, Tenn.
WR: Keenan Allen, Cal.
WR: Tavon Austin, WVU
TE: Zach Ertz, Stan.
LT: Luke Joekel, aggy
LG: Jonathan Cooper, UNC
C: Brian Schwenke, Cal
RG: Chance Warmack, Ala.
RT: Eric Fisher, CMU
@ Rice Cube:
I still believe that the ’84 49ers was the best team ever.
@ GBTS:
Dude has like 5 home runs. Who gives a shit?
3-4 Defense
WILL: Ezekial Ansah, BYU
DE: Sharrif Floyd, Fla.
NT: Jesse Williams, Ala.
DE: Star Lotulelei, Utah
SAM: Dion Jordan, Ore.
MIKE: Manti Te’o
TED: Kevin Minter, LSU
CB: Dee Milliner, Ala.
CB: Johnathan Banks, MSU
FS: Kenny Vaccaro, Texas
SS: Johnathan Cyprien, FIU
If Georgia OLB were 100% cleared of injury, I might have him above Ansah.
And the front 7 for a 4-3
DE: Bjoern Werner, FSU
UT: Sharrif Floyd, Fla.
NT: Star Lotulelei, Utah
DE: Ezekiel Ansah, BYU
OLB: Arthur Brown, KSU
MLB: Kevin Minter, LSU
OLB: Alec Ogletree, Ga.
I was tempted to be safe and put aggy DE Damontre Moore there, but I just have a feeling Ansah is going to blow up like Jason Pierre Paul. He’s a freak.
dmick89 wrote:
Too many teams have been burned and there’s much more emphasis on the draft these days.
Just so you know…
Ezekial Ansah, Sr., DE/OLB, BYU
6’5″, 274
Ghana native who started playing football in 2011.
Ran the 200m in 21.9 for BYU’s track team.
With a good 10-yard split and cone time, I think Ansah moves into the top 10.
And I’m going to make a bold prediction that Marquise Goodwin breaks Chris Johnson’s combine record in the 40.
@ dmick89:
That’s five more than he would’ve had if he hadn’t cheated.
#MeatballLogic
Because this is an alien milf porn blog, I thought this was a pretty interesting study (SFW, if concerned)
http://www.buzzfeed.com/ryanhatesthis/this-is-what-the-average-porn-star-looks-like
@ dmick89:
That’s a funny story. Even if false. Thanks for that even tho it isn’t about the NFL. (dying laughing)
@ mobile svb:
Yeah, let’s try not to derail the thread.
Ryno wrote:
As someone who used to coach track and run 200′s, this is one of the most ridiculous things I’ve ever read.
@ Xoomwaffle:
I also ran the 200 and was very happy when I clocked 22.7…carrying about 100 fewer pounds than Ansah.
I ran a 4×400 in high school once where the baton was a banana and the anchor had to eat the banana before finishing.
@ GBTS:
Calculating the WAR of Mr. Burns’s softball team.
http://groundballwitheyes.blogspot.com/2013/02/springfield-nuclear-pennant-winning-team.html
New Aside
@ Ryno:
I thought this was a track and field blog.
Will the first practice game on Saturday be on the radio or teevee?
@ Sk y’all:
It’s definitely on WGN radio, but I don’t think it’s televised.
@ GBTS:
@ Ryno:
that is the face of impending death, and I love it so…
@ dw8:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1xw09AcvzI
I really don’t want to, but I like Richard Sherman.
@ Ryno:
Oh, my…
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/02/20/time-for-baseballs-war-supporters-to-tone-down-the-arrogance/
I agree in principle with the very last paragraph:
But I didn’t like the rest of it.
@ Ryno:
Sherman is a beast. Who was that that punched him in the face?
@ Mucker:
Probably GBTS. He’s had some weird ideas lately.
@ Rice Cube:
The rest of it is pretty garbage. And you’re not gonna find too many people who a) think WAR perfectly measures performance or b) people who think it is the end-all of the conversation (in fact, I often argue that it’s a starting point, and you start digging from there). So I feel like that paragraph is the authors attempt to come off as even-handed/objective as well as hedge against the saber-backlash, but to me, it’s just a thinly-veiled strawman.
I don’t see how Valbuena and Lillibridge both can’t make the roster. I fully expect both of them to be on the opening day roster.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/projections/whats-wrong-with-the-2013-cubs-oliver-projections.html
@ Mike:
You could be right. Perhaps the better question is this: why would you want both of them? They essentially do the same thing.
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