2012 Cubs ZiPS Projections, Part 2

God, I’ll be pissed if Selig gets his way with hard slotting and caps on international signings.

Marshall in the rotation is worth another shot, though it leaves the bullpen in a state of disarray.

I’d be surprised if they moved him into the rotation. Much of the reason for his considerable improvement is that his fastball was 3-4 mph faster in 2011 than it was in 2007. He’s just a different pitcher in relief. The fastball went up, the strikeouts skyrocketed, the walks remained low, he still keeps the ball on the ground and because of his fastball he started getting more swings out of the zone and less contact on those pitches.

I’d be hesitant to move him into the rotation. I think best case you’ve got a starter who is worth about 2 wins. He can probably do that in relief. I’m not sure the reward is worth the risk.

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/8459752-419/rick-morrissey-time-for-cubs-to-get-with-deprogram.html

Rick Morrissey —-> not Gary Karton

At what point do you determine it isn’t working? It would be unfair to move him into the rotation and give him only 5 or 6 starts. At the very least you have to make a commitment to him starting like the Cubs did with Dempster entering the 2008 season. You have to give Marshall no less than 4 months in the rotation and I’d actually be disappointed if they did anything other than giving him a full season.

The reward is that it works out and maybe he’s a 3 WAR starter. That’s probably not likely though. Even if we go with that, he’s a free agent at the end of the season. Is that one good season in the rotation enough to make him a type A? Probably not. He’d have to be exception for that to happen. More than likely he wouldn’t even be a type B. In the bullpen, he just has to do close to what he’s done the last 2 years to be a type A. About the only way he’d not be a type B is if he missed the entire season and even then it’s possible he would be. So you stand to gain very little in a season that won’t matter, but you lose the type A status and possibly even the B. So you love at least one first round pick and more than likely two.

If Marshall is pitching well in the rotation and the team is out of it, a lot of teams would be interested in him in part because it wouldn’t cost them a draft pick. If the team decides to move him midway through the season as a reliever, they get in return the value of those draft picks, plus Marshall’s remaining surplus value.

For the minimal gain the Cubs stand to make with this move, they get less in return through a trade or through free agency. I’m just not sure that’s worth it. For a team that needs to build the farm system up, those two draft picks are more important than getting an extra win out of Marshall in 2012. And that’s only if Marshall pitches well in the rotation.

Theo talked about being honest about where the Cubs were entering a season. “Is it a 5-bank shot or a 2-bank shot?” Moving Marshall to the rotation without significant improvements elsewhere (even in the rotation) is a 5-bank shot. If you acquire Fielder, trade for a good starter, maybe we’re talking 2-bank shot if they move Marshall into the rotation. If the team is close to contention, I’m all for moving Marshall into the rotation. If it’s just to get an extra win out of him on a 75-win team, I want the draft picks that will be available next offseason.

From previous:

[quote name=GW]yes, the sec pathway translocates proteins to the periplasm. it also translocates rednecks to giant stadiums in the middle of nowhere.[/quote]

I actually thought some of the yeast Golgi proteins were classified as “sec” but it’s been a while since I took cell biology.

Carry on.

Ditto. I’m not sure the Cubs can get more value from Z by trading him than by keeping him.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Cubs shop Marshall to see if they can get value for him. I expect them to re-sign Wood on the cheap, and stick Carpenter and Cashner in the pen. Might also try to deal Marmol.

Sabathia opted out already?

That’s what I thought, RC. I was just wondering why his name was on that free agent list. If he hasn’t opted out, he’s not yet a free agent. Or is that list just a list of potential free agents?

[quote name=Rice Cube]The second part of the list was for players with options or opt-outs that hadn’t been exercised yet. The first part was for the declared free agents. You can see Aramis in the second part too.[/quote]I’m just an idiot.

(dying laughing)

Tebow.

-7 passing yards and counting dropping.

[quote name=GBTS](dying laughing)

Tebow.

-7 passing yards and counting dropping.[/quote]He’s the worst starting QB I’ve ever seen in an NFL game. And I watched Jonathan Quinn. (dying laughing) Tebow cannot make a single NFL throw.

The bar is set so low for praise of Tebow that when he doesn’t jump to throw, he’s praised for “good mechanics,” even though he still did that baseball windup thing before he threw it.

My wife said someone did the Tebowing thing after they sacked Tebow (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)

If only some of these third downs were Filipino, maybe he could convert some. (dying laughing)

[quote name=GBTS]If only some of these third downs were Filipino, maybe he could convert some. (dying laughing)[/quote]HI-YOOOOOOOOOOOO

Would you say that the referees throwing penalty flags would have better mechanics than Tim Tebow?

/edit’d because I’m lysdexic

Tebow now being compared favorably to Vick and Rothlisberger.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Good Lord. Anything Tebow does is met with wild applause. These Denver fans are inane.[/quote]Some Denver fans on my Facebook are already clamoring for Brady Quinn though.

I wonder if there is a gif out there of someone combining the Tebow with a facepalm.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Would you say that the referees throwing penalty flags would have better mechanics than Tim Tebow?
[/quote]
You’d have to check their cars to be sure

Tebow is 6′ 3″ and pretty beefy, they should do the Back to the Future thing where Darth Vader from the planet Vulcan tells him that God wants him to become a running back.

[quote name=GBTS]That’s a pretty nerdy way to suggest Tim Tebow changes position.[/quote]Do you think he’d do it if it weren’t ordained by God?

God told Tim Tebow he would throw that touchdown.

I know the annoucner thinks he’s complimenting Tebow here, but it’s clearly a damning statement of a QB to say the “way to help Tim Tebow” is to have him throw the ball behind the LOS. (dying laughing)

Wow. The Broncos are pretty bad. Josh McDaniel destroyed that roster.

[quote name=mb21]If you haven’t seen the end of season 4 of Breaking Bad, don’t click this: http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/GusMask-Package-2.jpg/quoteAwesome.

Can someone explain to me why is was remotely legal for an offensive lineman to pull Tebow from the grasp of the defender?

[quote name=mb21]Yeah, makes me want to go trick or treating. (dying laughing)[/quote]“Trick or treat. Do you have my product?”

[quote name=mb21]Yeah, makes me want to go trick or treating. (dying laughing)[/quote]FLAGGED

[quote name=mb21]Can I just say that I think the Tebow hate on this blog amusing? If it weren’t for this Cubs blog, I would never even hear Tim Tebow’s name or even read about it. I would have forgotten about him by now. So I blame all of you for reminding me of a guy who never had a chance to be an NFL QB. (dying laughing)[/quote]I don’t hate Tebow. I think he’s a bad QB who could be a very good player at TE or FB. I hate the canonization of this guy and that every week we have to hear inane comparisons to quarterbacks who were better at age 12 than Tebow is now. Plus there’s all this talk about how he’s such a leader and a guy who gives his all, but this seems to fly in the face of the fact that he’s been entirely unresponsive to his coaches’ attempts to refine his mechanics and pissed and moaned through training camp when Quinn and Orton passed him on the depth chart. It’s the media treatment of him that drives me nuts.

Fair enough, MO. It’s still going to make me laugh though. (dying laughing)

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]My buddy’s wife made blue rock candy and he dressed like Pinkman and gave it out to people at the party. (dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing) That is awesome. That’s the best idea ever. Isn’t the blue meth in the show actually candy? I know Aaron Paul was talking about how he can’t stop eating. Supposedly it tastes like cotton candy.

[quote name=mb21]So I blame all of you for reminding me of a guy who never had a chance to be an NFL QB. (dying laughing)[/quote]To be fair, MB, you’re one of eleven white males in the United States who doesn’t watch the NFL, so we could probably “remind” you of the existence of any player. (dying laughing)

[quote name=GBTS]To be fair, MB, you’re one of eleven white males in the United States who doesn’t watch the NFL, so we could probably “remind” you of the existence of any player. (dying laughing)[/quote]There are 10 others?

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Cubs who have already filed for FA:

Wood
Peña
Reed
Grabow
Ortiz

No word on Ramirez yet.[/quote]His decision will be interesting. It’s a mutual option so the Cubs can decline their option, but if Ramirez is willing to return for one year, I’d be inclined to just exercise the option.

This is the best thing Rick Morrissey has ever written:

Wrigley is like the last living actress from the silent-film era, full of rouge and faded memories. The world has moved on to talkies, if not 3-D films. Everybody else seems to have won a World Series, while the Cubs sell tradition. It’s time to catch up.

That said, I don’t see marketing and winning as mutually exclusive. For example, I didn’t hate that Tom was wearing the Harry Caray glasses — he did that at an event where they moved Harry’s statue to a place of less emphasis. So indeed, they were emphasizing baseball, not the “come-here-and-get-drunk” experience. I think hope they can be like the Red Sox — put together an awesome team in a ballpark that has a lot of character.

I couldn’t honestly give a shit less about the character of the ballpark. I just want a winner. (dying laughing)

[quote name=Steve Swisher]This is the best thing Rick Morrissey has ever written:

That said, I don’t see marketing and winning as mutually exclusive. For example, I didn’t hate that Tom was wearing the Harry Caray glasses — he did that at an event where they moved Harry’s statue to a place of less emphasis. So indeed, they were emphasizing baseball, not the “come-here-and-get-drunk” experience. I think hope they can be like the Red Sox — put together an awesome team in a ballpark that has a lot of character.[/quote]I think it matters what you’re marketing. And anything involving Harry Caray is not what I want marketed. It’s a hard sell to say that even that ceremony wasn’t when in addition to to wearing the glasses, Tommy Boy is out there swilling Budweiser throughout the ceremony.

They’ve sold that ballpark and “tradition” of this team to Cubs fans for decades, and it’s all gone to cover for the fact that most of the baseball Cub fans have seen in that time has been shit. “The team was bad, but, hey, you had a good time, right?” So, whatever it takes to scrap that business model, I’m all for it. Even if that means reducing Wrigley to rubble.

Just fucking win. Everything else is secondary.

[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Beuhrle filed, as well. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t end up in StL.[/quote]if he does it likely means Pujols isn’t returning. I don’t think they make any other big signings if they re-sign Pujols.

This is the best picture of Tebow getting Tebowed that I’ve seen yet:

Also, this:

http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/joe-buck-walks-in-on-troy-aikman-covering-nfl-game,26486/

[quote name=GBTS](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)

Unfortunately, the content is nowhere near as funny as the headline/picture combination.[/quote]
Honestly, I didn’t read past the headline/picture.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Ramirez —> free agent[/quote]Cubs picked up their half, Ramirez declined his.

Apparently A-Ram thinks he’s going to get a 4-5 year deal. Given the state of the market he just might, but as far as the Cubs should be concerned…buh-bye.

espn.com says Aramis is type B due to his poor 2010.

* that $2 million figure is, of course, in comparison to an idiot GM who simply gives Aram the $2 million buyout instead of taking the option.

[quote name=ACT]Still, this is good news. Theo has already saved the Cubs $2 million.[/quote]Thank goodness, I don’t know where they were going to find the money to keep paying Carlos Silva.

I wouldn’t be too surpirsed if we’re looking at some combo of Marquez Smith, Flaherty, and LeMaheiu at 3B this year. Epstein wants to improve the defense.

[quote name=melissa]I’m late to the party but I wanted to add an LSA +1 for the Zambrano post. (dying laughing) X 10[/quote]Even later to the party. But that was, and I mean this sincerely, which I shouldn’t have to say, but I don’t want you to miss the point, as, I believe, has happened in the past, hilarious.

[quote name=Mish]Grady Sizemore’s option is not likely to be picked up. Might he be worth a look on a cheaper deal?[/quote]Is he mercurial, or grindy? I can’t tell.

[quote name=Rice Cube]“Mercurial or Grindy” wouldn’t work as well as a Stevie Wonder & Paul McCartney song.[/quote]

With the dream team broken up I wonder if the Cubs will make a play for Dave Duncan.

[quote name=Rice Cube]I was under the impression that Dave Duncan had family issues with his wife having cancer and all, so he probably wouldn’t be too interested…[/quote]Well they could offer to get her into the Chicago hospitals since they are likely better than anywhere in St Louis. but that’s only if she isn’t already going to the country’s best. Still – better access for him to her if she is in another area of the country.

[quote name=GBTS]Is he mercurial, or grindy? I can’t tell.[/quote]He’s injury prone-y.

[quote name=Suburban kid 23][/quote]I’ll change it to “Mercurial and Grindy”…living together in perfect harmony.

[quote name=JMan]No idea. I highly doubt he ends up in Chicago. Still think he walks away from coaching for a year and instead does some freelance stuff with the Cardinals just to stay connected with the game.[/quote]He’ll only sign if they also sign Chris.

Jesus, he told Mozeliak in August. The Cubs beat writers are looking better…

[quote name=fang2415]I wonder if that was the real reason Mozeliak looked so happy after the season ended?…[/quote]That TLR was leaving, I mean. Not that he fooled the press.

/Ruined joke’d

So, how long before TLR moves into his next role as a regular at Glenn Beck events?

Is that just to stay in “baseball” shape I’m assuming?

[quote name=fang2415]Is there a vlb.tv?[/quote]I wonder how many horchata machines he’s going to break.

/Sullivan’d

(actually I don’t even know if they have horchata in all Latin American countries, but that stuff is good)

[quote name=mb21]Zambrano is going to pitch in Venezuela (November 5th start I think)[/quote]Saw that too. I couldn’t infer anything about what it might mean for his future with the Cubs or in MLB, though.

I don’t think there’s any way to see them. If they get into the postseason they may have some games on ESPN.

[quote name=fang2415]So… that’s a fairly big change for the Cards, huh? What does that mean for Alberto, for instance? And what type of guy do they look for next? Has Buster BluthJohn Mozeliak been secretly wanting to hire somebody, you know, smart, all this time but couldn’t since TLR had more power than he did?

TLR has basically been the Cardinals for sixteen years. I’m not even sure they’ll be worth hating with him gone. Well, once they get rid of Holliday, Berkman, Theriot, Carpenter, and Craig anyway. Okay, maybe Freese too.[/quote]I hate them 50% less already.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-50-free-agents/

cameron’s top 50 free agents.

I could see DeJesus being brought in to play right before B. Jackson gets brought up then moved to a 4th OF position/platoon with Byrd.

New post http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/fates-of-the-cubs-coaching-staff.html