Dan has already released the 2012 ZiPS for the Cubs so I thought I’d highlight several players and post them here.
| Player | PA | H | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| Carlos Pena | 522 | 101 | 28 | 82 | 145 | .230 | .355 | .480 | .360 |
| Aramis Ramirez | 502 | 130 | 21 | 38 | 69 | .280 | .340 | .474 | .350 |
| Bryan LaHair | 550 | 132 | 24 | 47 | 129 | .262 | .324 | .469 | .343 |
| Starlin Castro | 673 | 191 | 9 | 39 | 85 | .301 | .343 | .432 | .339 |
| Geovany Soto | 437 | 94 | 16 | 52 | 103 | .244 | .336 | .429 | .336 |
| Brett Jackson | 622 | 141 | 16 | 66 | 174 | .254 | .335 | .419 | .331 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 484 | 111 | 21 | 31 | 111 | .245 | .297 | .453 | .320 |
| Blake DeWitt | 430 | 100 | 8 | 39 | 68 | .256 | .326 | .399 | .319 |
| Marlon Byrd | 516 | 133 | 12 | 28 | 82 | .273 | .324 | .414 | .317 |
| Steve Clevenger | 454 | 115 | 4 | 31 | 61 | .272 | .322 | .369 | .308 |
| D.J. LeMahieu | 594 | 166 | 3 | 24 | 74 | .291 | .319 | .363 | .304 |
| Welington Castillo | 377 | 86 | 12 | 23 | 94 | .243 | .294 | .395 | .299 |
| Josh Vitters | 549 | 137 | 14 | 22 | 90 | .260 | .297 | .395 | .298 |
| Tyler Colvin | 501 | 110 | 16 | 28 | 129 | .233 | .276 | .416 | .297 |
| Jeff Baker | 248 | 58 | 4 | 16 | 55 | .250 | .299 | .375 | .297 |
| Darwin Barney | 599 | 156 | 3 | 28 | 76 | .273 | .311 | .352 | .294 |
| Tony Campana | 478 | 123 | 1 | 27 | 95 | .273 | .317 | .380 | .290 |
| Koyie Hill | 219 | 44 | 3 | 17 | 58 | .218 | .277 | .317 | .268 |
The top guy (Pena) is a free agent. Ramirez will probably decline his option and look for a multi-year deal. Of the players under contract for next season, Bryan LaHair is the team’s best hitter. Castro and Soto aren’t far behind. Neither is Brett Jackson. ZiPS thinks Jackson is the Cubs best hitting outfielder and it’s probably right. According to ZiPS, Clevenger and Castillo should be battling it out for the back-up catcher’s role, which is probably what will happen. If Hendry was the GM we might have seen Hill return, but with Theo I’d say there’s just slightly better than a 0% chance of that.
ZiPS thinks Soriano will still hit for a lot of power, but his OBP will again be below .300. Overall, his wOBA projection is close to league average (a bit below).
LaHair, Castro, Soto and Jackson are all above average hitters and then there’s a rather big drop after those four. The projection for Jeff Baker seems low to me. Maybe it’s projecting him to not be a platoon guy and facing way more righties than lefties. As down as I’ve been on Josh Vitters, I have to say that projection is a lot better than I’d have thought. It’s not good, but he basically is projected to have a .300 wOBA and he’s still very young. He’s never going to be a superstar and probably won’t ever be a starter, but he could still be useful if he can continue to play 3rd base.
You might think it’s important for the Cubs to re-sign Pena since he has a projected .360 wOBA, but his replacement is projected to hit .343. What’s the difference?
The difference in terms of runs is about 8 in favor of Pena or .8 WAR. If the value of the win next season is 5% higher than this year, it would be about $4.8 million. That .8 WAR improvement is worth $3.8 million. In other words, if you can sign Pena for that amount or less, go for it. It would improve the team. Let’s just increase it to $5 million because of the uncertainty to play it safe. If the Cubs can sign Pena to a contract worth $5 million for one year they should go ahead and do it. If Pena wants anything more than that, go with LaHair at 1st. Pena got $10 million last year and had a solid season. He’s probably worth close to $10 million the free agent market so it’s unlikely he’d accept such little money for another year.
The great thing about the new Cubs front office is that they’ll be making rational decisions. They won’t use WAR figures that I’ve quoted here. They have their own metrics or soon will. Theo talked about future projections and those may vary significantly from what ZiPS finds. The various projection systems that come out will have a wide range of wOBA’s. CAIRO has Pena hitting .340 and LaHair at .320. The difference is about the same in runs, but it’s possible one system will have one of them at .360 and LaHair at around .310. I don’t have any idea what projections the Cubs will come up with, but the process to determine whether or not they should sign Pena or go with LaHair is the same.
What do the numbers on the defensive projections mean?
Unobstructed View: http://www.obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/mlb/world-series-1975-game-6-vs-2011-game-6.html
[quote name=ACT]What do the numbers on the defensive projections mean?[/quote]What do you mean?
On the page: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2012_zips_projections_-_chicago_cubs/
Pena, e.g., is AV/98
I’ve never quite understood Dan’s defensive projections. What is AV/98 and FR/99? It’s average and fair, but what the hell are the numbers?
CAIRO calculates a weighted DRS and UZR projection. The average of those two for Pena for 2012 is 1 and for LaHair it’s 0.
I don’t think there’s much difference between the two defensively. I’ve always heard Pena is very good on defense, but I just didn’t see it. He’s probably above average, but I’d hardly call him very good. I think Derrek Lee was not only the better fielder, but quite a bit better. Lee’s ADR over the last 3 years: 2, 4, 1. Pena’s: -6, -1, 2.
There’s no way Campana is posting a .380 SLG next year.
[quote name=ACT]There’s no way Campana is posting a .380 SLG next year.[/quote]Even worse than the .380 slugging projection for Campana is Andrew Cashner’s projection. His FIP is right at 4. I think ZiPS has him starting 11 times in 31 appearances. It’s possible his FIP is 4 and his ERA is well below 4. But there’s no way you can look at what he’s done at the big league level, the injury, and even the minor league level and conclude he’ll be that good.
CAIRO has Cashner with a 3.98 FIP as a reliever. That’s much more believable, but if half his innings are as a starter I don’t see how the projection for him is lower than 4.3.
Looking at these projections in conjunction with CAIRO, I just don’t see how the Cubs, given the state of their farm system at the moment, can expect to contend within the next three seasons without spending boocoo bucks this offseason and next. Theo came into Boston with a veteran core in place and then slowly replaced it with the system. If he plans on doing the same thing here, he’s going to have to construct his core via free agency or trades, and if he’s going to do that I don’t see how he doesn’t bring back Aramis Ramirez and then go after Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols. The media can talk pitching and defense all they want, but outside of Darvish, there’s almost nobody I would want the Cubs to pursue for a long-term deal starting pitching-wise this offseason. Next offseason, sure. Cain, Danks, Greinke, Hamels, Haren, Marcum, and Shields could all potentially hit the market.
I agree, SL. This isn’t like the 2008 Cubs when they didn’t really have a superstar, but had 8 guys in their lineup who were pretty good. Their pitching was just pretty good up and down the roster. This current roster doesn’t have any stars like the 2008 team, but only has a few players who are good. If they want to contend in the next 3 years, they have to sign Fielder or Pujols and probably Darvish as well. Then they have to hope they play up to expectations, Castro continues to develop, Brett Jackson is as good or better than these projections and that they develop some additional talent.
It’s quite likely that the 2012 team is going to be worse than the 2011 one. If I had to bet money right now on whether they’d be better or worse, I’d put money on worse.
.
Yeah, probably. But if that’s the case then Theo and Friends better be selling The Process hard, and Theo better have an explanation ready when somebody finally thinks to ask him how what he’s doing is any different than what Andy MacPhail tried to do.
For the record, I’m fine with waiting. I believe in Theo.
Apparently Dempster will exercise his option.
Ryan Dempster ——————-> also believes in Theo.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/ryan-dempster-exercised-2012-option.html
Eh, I think the Cubs have enough money freeing up this year that they can improve their record while still building for the future. At the very least, I don’t expect Theo & co. to say, “To hell with 2012, we’re building for 2015!”
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Yeah, probably. But if that’s the case then Theo and Friends better be selling The Process hard, and Theo better have an explanation ready when somebody finally thinks to ask him how what he’s doing is any different than what Andy MacPhail tried to do.
For the record, I’m fine with waiting. I believe in Theo.[/quote]I do too, but I think you’re right. If the 2012 team is worse, the masses are going to want answers.
[quote name=ACT]Eh, I think the Cubs have enough money freeing up this year that they can improve their record while still building for the future. At the very least, I don’t expect Theo & co. to say, “To hell with 2012, we’re building for 2015!”[/quote]I don’t expect that either. I actually think if money is spent wisely enough they could improve a little next year, quite a bit the year after and maybe even content in 2013. Contending in 2014 shouldn’t be an issue. They have a ton of money available and should have a better farm system at that point.
Joe Poz on the Cards:
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/10/cardinals-will-win-world-series.html
I can’t wait for the first .500 (or worse) team makes the playoffs (and World Series). It’s come pretty close to happening, but not quite.
[quote name=ACT]I can’t wait for the first .500 (or worse) team makes the playoffs (and World Series). It’s come pretty close to happening, but not quite.[/quote]I think with the second wild card pretty much inevitable, it will happen, especially if the first “round” is just a play-in game.
I think it’s less likely to be a Wild Card than a weak division leader.
They’re doing away with divisions last I heard.
What’s the new format? Best 4 or 5 in each league?
[quote name=ACT]I think it’s less likely to be a Wild Card than a weak division leader.[/quote]I think you’re right. In any given year I could see the any of the non-East divisions sucking, but can they be so bad that the division winner sneaks in with a .500 record? I don’t think a sub-.500 winner is possible as each team has to play their division rivals so much…
[quote name=ACT]What’s the new format? Best 4 or 5 in each league?[/quote]I’d be in favor of this. Had not heard about the elimination of divisions, I thought they were just going to realign whenever Houston or whoever moves to AL.
I remain steadfastly skeptical of LaHair. He was very, very ordinary until he got to the PCL. But it would be a serious boon to the Cubs if he could meet this projection. About the same production as Peña for far less money.
I think it’s that the top 3 are in the playoffs and the 4th and 5th teams play 1 game to decide to plays the 1-seed.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I remain steadfastly skeptical of LaHair. He was very, very ordinary until he got to the PCL. But it would be a serious boon to the Cubs if he could meet this projection. About the same production as Peña for far less money.[/quote]I’m skeptical of anyone his age also, but he didn’t just start hitting in the PCL. He was murdering the baseball. If all he did was hit .280/.350/.475, I’d be a lot more more concerned. He may not be as good as Pena (probably isn’t), but I don’t think Pena is so good that it justifies spending the money on him. Just my opinion though.
[quote name=mb21]I’m skeptical of anyone his age also, but he didn’t just start hitting in the PCL. He was murdering the baseball. If all he did was hit .280/.350/.475, I’d be a lot more more concerned. He may not be as good as Pena (probably isn’t), but I don’t think Pena is so good that it justifies spending the money on him. Just my opinion though.[/quote]Yeah, I am as reticent to say they should pay Peña as I am to say they should give the job to LaHair.
Just take the guesswork out of the equation and sign Fielder. (dying laughing)
Is it wise to blow so much money on Fielder but still have so many holes on the team? Plus Fielder would have to be sold on a “wait and see” plan.
Signing Fielder doesn’t mean you have to contend in 2012. He’s still going to be very good after that. If you sign someone like Fielder you look to just get better in 2012 and then when more money comes off the books you look to be contenders.
So Michigan State gets off to a good start and then gets their fucking ass kicked. Same as last year.
CAMON MIZZOU
[quote name=mb21]Signing Fielder doesn’t mean you have to contend in 2012. He’s still going to be very good after that. If you sign someone like Fielder you look to just get better in 2012 and then when more money comes off the books you look to be contenders.[/quote]Yeah, I’m just wondering how much $ he’d need to wait out a year.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Is it wise to blow so much money on Fielder but still have so many holes on the team? Plus Fielder would have to be sold on a “wait and see” plan.[/quote]Do you take the significant upgrade at one position, or halfass upgrades at as many positions as possible? Besides, it’s not like the SP and OF FA crop is deep this year.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Yeah, I’m just wondering how much $ he’d need to wait out a year.[/quote]I don’t think it’s enough to be prohibitive. You’ve just hired the best FO in the division, may be the league, you’ve got a robust fanbase, a new young owner with money, and a plan.
Prince Fielder in Cub pinstripes would look like a globe without any latitudes (dying laughing) This might be fun.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Prince Fielder in Cub pinstripes would look like a globe without any latitudes (dying laughing) This might be fun.[/quote](dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]Prince Fielder in Cub pinstripes would look like a globe without any latitudes (dying laughing) This might be fun.[/quote]I assume he’d just do what he did in Milwaukee: buy a shirt that’s 4 sizes too big so, improbably, it looks bulky on him.
I think they’re thinking of contending in two years. That was the hint I was getting from the PC, not that you can put much stock into that. That said, Fielder may well be part of a two year plan. I agree that Pena didn’t impress as a defensive 1B.
[quote name=josh]I assume he’d just do what he did in Milwaukee: buy a shirt that’s 4 sizes too big so, improbably, it looks bulky on him.
I think they’re thinking of contending in two years. That was the hint I was getting from the PC, not that you can put much stock into that. That said, Fielder may well be part of a two year plan. I agree that Pena didn’t impress as a defensive 1B.[/quote]But Bob Brenly says he saved Castro from having eleventy billions of errors.
As for the Cubs signing Fielder, it would take more money than another team offers. His agent is Scott Boras. He won’t sign for less than he’s offered. He’d go to the Orioles if they offered the most money.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]But Bob Brenly says he saved Castro from having eleventy billions of errors.[/quote]And Bob “The Greatest Manager in the History of Baseball” Brenly would know.
[quote name=mb21]As for the Cubs signing Fielder, it would take more money than another team offers. His agent is Scott Boras. He won’t sign for less than he’s offered. He’d go to the Orioles if they offered the most money.[/quote]True, he’s already said he’d consider DHing, probably at Scott’s prompting.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Do you take the significant upgrade at one position, or halfass upgrades at as many positions as possible? Besides, it’s not like the SP and OF FA crop is deep this year.[/quote]
This. Fuckin’ A this.
Almost any short-term plan through free agency will have to be a two-phase approach. I think any prospective free agent would understand that, and if the money’s right, sign up anyway.
Just having Theo, Hoyer, et al, on board should be enough confirmation that the Cubs mean business about getting better.
To follow up on MO again, you get the best player at a position in need when he comes up, not when all the stars align.
The Cubs don’t have a 1B in the system as of yet, after 2012, there won’t be an opportunity to acquire a slugging first baseman via free agency (or even via trade) for quite some time.
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]To follow up on MO again, you get the best player at a position in need when he comes up, not when all the stars align.
The Cubs don’t have a 1B in the system as of yet, after 2012, there won’t be an opportunity to acquire a slugging first baseman via free agency (or even via trade) for quite some time.[/quote]Right. If they’re going to fill that position by something other than a trade (and they don’t have the MiLB pieces for that right now), this offseason is the time to do it.
Mizzou knocks off A&M. (dying laughing)
I’d be cool with that then. Maybe Fielder gets crazy lucky and breaks some home run records while leading the Cubs into the postseason in 2012, but I’ve always been okay with 2013. I think a surprise run in 2012 would be a nice bonus though I’m not counting on it.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I’d be cool with that then. Maybe Fielder gets crazy lucky and breaks some home run records while leading the Cubs into the postseason in 2012, but I’ve always been okay with 2013. I think a surprise run in 2012 would be a nice bonus though I’m not counting on it.[/quote]Without a significant upgrade to this team somewhere, I expect another 85-90 loss 2012.
[quote name=ACT]I can’t wait for the first .500 (or worse) team makes the playoffs (and World Series). It’s come pretty close to happening, but not quite.[/quote]
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
Wait. We don’t have to rely on such things any more… in theory. Praise Theo!
What happens when people who know nothing about advanced metrics, don’t care to learn and don’t trust them at all, try to write about them: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-1030-theo-epstein-cubs-chicago–20111029,0,5577047,full.story
Marcus Coker might run for 400 yards today against Minnesota. And Iowa might now score.
Ducks are playing like utter shit.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]What happens when people who know nothing about advanced metrics, don’t care to learn and don’t trust them at all, try to write about them: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-1030-theo-epstein-cubs-chicago–20111029,0,5577047,full.story/quoteat least he tried. I’ll give him that.
[quote name=You Can Browse, But Not Partic]at least he tried. I’ll give him that.[/quote]Yeah. But…oof. “WAR/OPS players”????
Well, so: what a fucking series. I think that the single thing that now excites me most about Theo getting the team into shape is the prospect of watching them steamroll the Cardinals every year for a decade. Hopefully La Russa will still be there to enjoy every minute of it.
I find it funny how a lot of Cubs fans are embracing Theo who care little for sabermetrics and prefer stats like BA w/RISP.
[quote name=ACT]I find it funny how a lot of Cubs fans are embracing Theo who care little for sabermetrics and prefer stats like BA w/RISP.[/quote]Hopefully they can still recognize the value of his stats+scouts approach, even if they have a philosophical objection to it.
They’re compatible because they’re hiring a front office to make them compatible. THE CUBS isn’t some magical deity, it’s a fucking business. You hire guys who do the job the way you want it to be done. Fuck sake!
[quote name=josh]
They’re compatible because they’re hiring a front office to make them compatible. THE CUBS isn’t some magical deity, it’s a fucking business. You hire guys who do the job the way you want it to be done. Fuck sake![/quote]
That statement from van Dyck just evinces what we’ve long argued here: that many Cub fans, maybe most Cub fans, regard this team as having some sort of persistent identity as scrappy hard luck grinders. If it’s not done that way, it’s not Cubs baseball; it’s that horrid filthy lucre kind of baseball where teams “buy” championships and commit the great moral transgression of knowing a fact.
I’m going to celebrate Halloween by committing Harry Caray.
Marcus Coker has 187 yards on 19 carries (2nd half just started and Iowa hasn’t touched the ball yet). They’ve scored 7 fucking points. No interceptions. No fumbles.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’m going to celebrate Halloween by committing Harry Caray.[/quote]HEY! Did you know the ancient Japanese had a way to kill themselves called Harry Caray? It’s got the same name as me, but I wouldn’t do it. I’d probably just use a gun.
Wil Farrel’d
[quote name=mb21]Marcus Coker has 187 yards on 19 carries (2nd half just started and Iowa hasn’t touched the ball yet). They’ve scored 7 fucking points. No interceptions. No fumbles.[/quote]Oregon are starting to put it together. WTH are Iowa doing? stalling in the red zone? No passing game going?
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Oregon are starting to put it together. WTH are Iowa doing? stalling in the red zone? No passing game going?[/quote]Passing hasn’t been bad. They’ve just not had to do it. 2 missed field goals. 3 3rd downs where they put it in the air rather than giving it to the guy who has averaged 10 per carry. Came up short each time. It’s odd.
[quote name=mb21]Passing hasn’t been bad. They’ve just not had to do it. 2 missed field goals. 3 3rd downs where they put it in the air rather than giving it to the guy who has averaged 10 per carry. Came up short each time. It’s odd.[/quote]Strange. Sounds like some bad playcalling.
Iowa is inside the 10 now. Here’s where they’ll put it in the air. Go deep!
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Hopefully they can still recognize the value of his stats+scouts approach, even if they have a philosophical objection to it.[/quote]What I find funny is how everyone thinks Theo is on their side. “There’s no way he’ll resign Pena, with his .185 BA w/RISP. He must be burning mad about how the last regime mistreated Colvin and LaHair.”
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Strange. Sounds like some bad playcalling.[/quote]It’s this idea about being balanced. Iowa HAS to be balanced or so the offensive coordinator thinks. Most of the time it works just fine, but some times you’re just better off going with what works. They can’t stop Coker. 2nd and goal from the 1, I expect a pass.
Nope. Touchdown. Gave it to the guy they should have been giving it to most of the game and they score. Shocking.
[quote name=ACT]What I find funny is how everyone thinks Theo is on their side. “There’s no way he’ll resign Pena, with his .185 BA w/RISP. He must be burning mad about how the last regime mistreated Colvin and LaHair.”[/quote](dying laughing), too true.
[quote name=ACT]What I find funny is how everyone thinks Theo is on their side. “There’s no way he’ll resign Pena, with his .185 BA w/RISP. He must be burning mad about how the last regime mistreated Colvin and LaHair.”[/quote]Did someone say that? I haven’t read these articles.
I wasn’t referring to an article, just internet comments I’ve read.
DeAnthony Thomas is scary good.
[quote name=ACT]What I find funny is how everyone thinks Theo is on their side. “There’s no way he’ll resign Pena, with his .185 BA w/RISP. He must be burning mad about how the last regime mistreated Colvin and LaHair.”[/quote]They’re so used to THE CUBS as they’ve always known it. Even when the Cubs brought in new GMs in the past, it was just a fresher version of the same old mentality, that this is going to be a wakeup call. Hopefully, in a good way, once the Cubs do start winning. The media will change its tune the exact instant fans start to show up in droves when the Cubs are not only winning, but have a minor league system you can talk about with some excitement, because the last thing they want to do is piss off their customer base. However, that is still a couple years off, so there will be a lot of tripe served in the meantime.
Holy crap, Casey Keenum threw 9 TD last night.
[quote name=mb21]So Michigan State gets off to a good start and then gets their fucking ass kicked. Same as last year.[/quote]
Jerks
What the fucking fuck? Iowa has a guy with 230 yards rushing and they’re passing. And fumbling because of it. Fucking stupid.
[quote name=Berselius]Jerks[/quote](dying laughing)
[quote name=Berselius]Jerks[/quote]Enough with the namecalling. You’ve been warned.
[quote name=josh]They’re so used to THE CUBS as they’ve always known it. Even when the Cubs brought in new GMs in the past, it was just a fresher version of the same old mentality, that this is going to be a wakeup call. Hopefully, in a good way, once the Cubs do start winning. The media will change its tune the exact instant fans start to show up in droves when the Cubs are not only winning, but have a minor league system you can talk about with some excitement, because the last thing they want to do is piss off their customer base. However, that is still a couple years off, so there will be a lot of tripe served in the meantime.[/quote]Here’s hoping fans get smarter as the team gets smarter then so we can rise above the tripe as quickly as possible.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/a-new-and-imprvoed-carlos-zambrano.html