Many of you who have been reading this blog or ACB before it are familiar with the playing time projections we've set up each year. Back in 2008 and 2009 we had a lot of people filling the surveys out. There was a lot of excitement among Cubs fans before each of those seasons and it led to many more completed surveys than I had ever anticpated. As the Cubs have begun to suck, the excitement has dwindled and participation in the survey has declined. There still have been more than enough surveys to get a quality playing time projections, but I'm hoping this year as many of you as possible will take the 5 to 10 minutes to fill it out.
It's set up a bit different this year. Rather than us providing you a name and you entering in the plate appearances or innings, we've set it up so there's a dropdown with those numbers instead. After all, when you're averaging 50 surveys together, it's not really important if someone thinks Alfonso Soriano will get 573 plate appearances. A simple 551-600 estimate would do just fine. It makes setting up the survey easier and it makes filling it out considerably less time consuming.
You just look at the player's name, click the drop down and select the range of plate appearances or innings pitched that you're expecting. Your help here would be appreciated. We'll use this information to create a projected win total for the team. This is not about how many plate appearances or innings you want the player to get. It's about how much you think he will based on whatever information you choose to use. If you think Dale Sveum won't play Barney all that much, enter a lower number.
The survey is below. The numbers represent plate appearances or innings pitched. You don't have to answer every one of them, but as many answers as possible would help us out. For those who have browsers that can't render iframes, you can fill the survey out here.
Don’t tell me what to do.
@ Aisle424:
I’ll go without dinner again.
What do I win if I’m closest?
@ josh:
Access to free recipes here: http://www.cookiesbbq.com/
Happy Kurt Russel’s birthday to all. May the wings of liberty never lose a feather!
Apologies for redundant posts, I’m learning.
@ mb21:
Finally!
So I guess
Mike Stanton —————-> Giancarlo Stanton
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Samardzija picked Xavier over Notre Dame in his bracket. I like him a little more every day.
You guys seen The Announcement yet? Just finished it. Very good.
mb21 wrote:
Is that the one where LeBron takes his talents to South Beach?
John Dewan’s newest measure of how bad Soriano’s defense is: http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_impact_of_good_plays_and_misplays/
skimming the boxscores:
vs the A’s
Maholm gave up 3 runs in the first, should have been out of the inning but for a Vitters error. Vitters also made an out on the basepaths.
Dejesus hit a triple
Geo doubled and homered
Rowland-Smith pitched today. I already forgot the Cubs signed him.
vs the Rangers
Samardzija had another good outing. 3 hits, 1 run, 3 K, 0 BB in four innings.
Russell gave up 4 hits and 2 runs in one inning.
Cubs scratched out 4 singles, no walks in the first 7 innings.
Since writing that Clevenger, Cardenas, and Lake have homered
Berselius wrote:
Go Iowa!!
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/17/red-sox-release-injured-right-hander-carlos-silva/
Do the Cubs still have to pay his salary?
Berselius wrote:
You’re like me. You alternate between using numbers and spelling them out. (dying laughing)
@ mb21:
We’re consistently inconsistent
The only time he spelled out the numbers was in front of “inning”.
After all, “Three hits, one run, three K, zero BB in 4 innings. Russell gave up four hits and two runs in 1 inning” would look stupid.
Suburban kid wrote:
Garza threw one hundred and ninety eight innings last year (I think).
Sometimes I spell the numbers and sometimes I don’t. I don’t know why. I notice it, but I don’t care. It just stood out to me when berselius did it and since I didn’t have anything to say about the numbers he provided I wanted to make fun of him. (dying laughing)
14 people have filled the survey out so far. Pretty good for a March Madness Saturday. Thanks, guys.
@ mb21:
I tried to do it on my phone earlier but it couldn’t see the submit button
@ Berselius:
Did it see the other buttons at the bottom?
@ mb21:
Just the first two. I think it would have worked if I switched to the nonmobile site. The iframe doesn’t play well with the fixed width of the mobile site
@ Berselius:
I’ll have to look into that. There must be some css formatting for iframes on the mobile theme.
Oh well. you have time. It actually only took me about 2 minutes, but I think about the playing time projections often enough that I already knew what I was going to select. I imagine you’re the same way.
So it looks like Cubs lose….and Cubs super lose.
@ mb21:
yeah, didn’t take me long at all. I was sitting through annoying pre-movie ads
mb21 wrote:
I think the Samardzija projection was a bit restrictive unless you are dead certain that he won’t get any chance to be in the rotation. I ended up choosing 71-80 as that was the max, but I feel like he still has a decent chance of making it into the rotation. And even if he’s just a long-reliever I think he’d get more than 80 innings. Maybe I’m being too optimistic though.
@ Rice Cube:
I went with 71-80 because I think he’ll be used for more than an inning at a time in relief, but I do not believe he’ll be getting any starts. I thought about increasing the numbers for him, but when you look at his stats they just plain suck. James Russell and Casey Coleman are more deserving of rotation spots than Samardzija. Maybe something is different. I sure as hell hope so if the Cubs are serious about this rotation crap.
@ Aisle424:
Zero Wisemen
(dying laughing)
How often does Ask OV have to appear to make it seem like creating the banner wasn't a waste of time?
(dying laughing still)
I think Samardzija will be a starting pitcher with far more than 80 innings pitched, so I put no answer.
I think he’ll pitch 151-200.
@ Cubsin:
I think at this point its entirely possible he at least starts out as a starter. The overall numbers aren’t great for him, but while the FO are numbers guys, and the numbers on Samardzija aren’t great, Sveum seems less so, and they are probably looking to take a few risks to see if someone gets lucky, anyway.
Here’s another one just for Samardzija as a starter. http://ovsurvey.obstructedview.net/index.php?sid=22677
I think he has more than a shot given Travis Wood’s recent inability to pitch and the minor league options for Chris Volstead.
Garza, Dempster, Malhom, Samardzija, Wells…. sounds workable. Why waste service time? Samardzija is too old to be worth anything. If he has 10 wins and a 4.25 ERA we can get a nice prospect for him in the offseason.
No TWood makes the decision relatively simple.
@ mb21:
I think he goes 110 innings and not much more. He hasn’t been as stretched out as, say, Randy Wells and I expect he’d have a quick hook if he ever got into trouble.
@ Pezcore:
Does that really work though? Wells, Samardzija and Volstad all make over $2MM (Wells and Volstad via arb, F7 because of his new deal) and if they all pitch well, I think two go in the rotation and one goes in the bullpen instead of watching $2MM+ burn in the minors.
http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2012/03/nl-scouts-take-on-cubs-camp/
Does Samardzija have options at this point? I don’t know if they can send him down to Iowa to start if they decide to keep him in that role.
@ Berselius:
I’m reasonably sure he ran out of options last year, which was why he was on the MLB squad the whole season. He’s doing well enough this spring that I don’t think they can risk exposing him to waivers.
I’m kind of surprised these Vegas games aren’t on WGN. Usually they love the excuse to go there
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/11364937-419/cubs-could-have-landed-maddux-brothers-but-timing-wasnt-right.html
Lots of other good stuff from Brett today. The Cubs offer to Cespedes was 6/36
http://www.bleachernation.com/2012/03/18/how-close-were-the-cubs-to-landing-the-maddux-brothers-and-other-bullets/
Gordo’s reporting that Cespedes turned down a 6 year deal from the Cubs. I saw it on Hardball Talk. I’m mobile so I’m too lazy to post the link.
@ Berselius:
Oh my god, the Mayans were right! Prepare for the apocalypse!
Pezcore wrote:
If he has a 4.25 ERA as a starter it would be his best season since 2006 and that was in rookie league: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=samard001jef
He had an OK season last year in relief at the age of 26. He’s due for some regression even if he sticks around in the bullpen. I don’t think he would post a 4.25 ERA as a reliever next year. I’d put the over/under at 5 and take the over. As a starter (the entire year), I’d put the over/under at 6 and take the over.
Pezcore wrote:
I agree it makes it relatively simple: Garza, Dempster, Maholm, Wells, Volstad with Wood as the 6th starter, McNutt as the 7th starter, followed by a bunch of other guys and then Alvin Yellon as the next to last starter and Samardzija as the last starter.
Last year we applauded the Cubs front office and Mike Quade for saying he wouldn’t start again. He did nothing in relief that makes one think he’s any different a pitcher than he was before that. Personally, I think this is about Sveum and Thoyer falling in love with a mid 90s fastball and being unable to see what others before them already learned. I can’t think of anything else to explain it and I’m not sure it matters what the explanation is. Samardzija is going to get rocked as a starting pitcher. He’ll probably get rocked as a reliever.
@ mb21:
I’m sorry, I was thinking about cats.
@ Berselius:
He’s out of options. He was signed to that big league deal so he used one in 2007, 2008, 2009 and got the 4th option in 2010.
Rice Cube wrote:
Some team would take him, but is it really a risk? They’d take him and his contract so I’d consider it a win for the Cubs.
@ mb21:
It seems like a minimal loss situation to me. If they let F7 start and he’s alright, they can try to ship him off as a trade chip or keep him around if they wanted to. If he sucks, then they’re only out $2.6MM and they were going to suck this year anyway. They might as well give it a try. I doubt they just ignored the previous scouting reports and stats on Samardzija.
@ mb21:
As in my previous post, if they were going to bet his contract against the possibility of trading for something useful, it’s not that hefty of a bet in baseball terms. I don’t think they’re starting him because he’s the second coming of Roger Clemens. They’re trying to see what kind of asset they have when they didn’t even pay that much for him. At least that’s what I’d like to tell myself (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, but they also have Wells and Volstad, who are credible pitchers. Though I guess they can option Volstad. It’s not like it’s F7 vs Ramon Ortiz here
@ Rice Cube:
I disagree. From dictionary.com:
I could focus on the positive results in 2006 in rookie league, but that’s about it. He had a small sample of quality innings when he made his big league debut, but even that was one good month and one terrible month. He had a decent ERA last year, but his BB rate was horrible. There just aren’t that many positives to be said about Samardzija other than this: last year he had a decent season as a reliever.
I liked the contract at the time. Why not? The Cubs had money and Samardzija could hit 99. Worth the risk.
@ Berselius:
I don’t really know how this new front office values players. I see it as two guys still being under club control for two more years after this one while this is basically F7′s walk year. If they don’t plan to keep Samardzija I feel like they should either waive/release him or let him pitch as much as possible so they can dump him on somebody else.
I don’t really care about F7′s spring numbers, I wonder if the scouts see anything different in him.
@ Berselius:
He is working under an almost entirely new coaching staff and a new pitching coach so there’s that.
@ mb21:
Oh, I appreciate that you were being objective about him. I just thought Cubs Stats’ pic was funny and appropriate there.
Rice Cube wrote:
That’s true, but it doesn’t change the fact it’s a bad decision. The only reason I don’t think it’s a terrible decision to send Jackson to AAA is because of service time. Because he’s the best outfielder and maybe even best position player in the Cubs organization, I still think it’s a bad idea to send him down. I can live it with because there’s a logical reason to do so.
@ Berselius:
I don’t think so. one of the things Thoyer said early on was how great a season F7 had last year. I shook my head and assumed they were just talking out their asses, but it appears they really do believe he had a good season last year.
@ Rice Cube:
If this new coaching staff can turn Samardzija into a good starter then Garza, Dempster and Maholm are going to finish 1-2-3 in the Cy Young balloting. Randy Wells or Chris Volstad will also be in the top 10. Carlos Marmol won’t walk anyone all year long. Kerry Wood will stay healthy. Casey Coleman will learn to throw 95 mph heat in the bullpen. The Cubs are going to win the World Series on their pitching alone. (dying laughing)
The Cubs sucked last year and I remember everybody being thrilled when Hendry and Quade said that F7 wouldn’t be starting again. It was a fantastic decision. it was one that should have made at least a year earlier. They sucked that year and could easily have put him in the rotation and at no point did they even consider it.
@ mb21:
I still think they were talking out of their asses, and were talking about him as a reliever. It’s seemed like Dale Sveum has by far been the main cheerleader on the F7 as starter bandwagon.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/introducing_the_razors/
@ Berselius:
I’ve thought so too until today when I learned other people here were wanting a playing time projection for him as a starter. I still think you’re right. I cannot imagine this front office even allowing Samardzija to step foot on the mound as a starter unless 10 starters are injured.
@ mb21:
Ah, now I have to find the optimism goggles pic (dying laughing)
I agree that it’s not the best decision but I also don’t believe it’s flat out wrong. If they see something and can fix it, that’s awesome. If it doesn’t work, what have the 2012 Cubs lost anyway? If F7 has 3 or 4 shitty starts they can just put him in the bullpen or release him. I guess I don’t think it matters as much as you. Maybe it screws a better starter out of 20 innings of work but it doesn’t seem like a huge risk to me.
I think it’s more than likely based on past performance that you’re right but I think this is something that they have to try. They’ve got very little to lose this year.
For what it’s worth I used to have Garza-Demp-Maholm-Wood-Volstad in the rotation but now I’ve replaced Wood with Wells. I do think F7 is on the outside looking in but I don’t think it’s as impossible or farfetched as you do.
lineup v Rangers
LF Johnson
SS Lake
2B DeWitt
DH Adolfo
1B LaHair
3B Mather
C Clevenger
RF Sappelt
CF Adduci
non-Vegas lineup vs WhiteSox
DH DeJesus
CF Byrd
SS Castro
1B Rizzo
C Soto
LF Baker
3B Vitters
2B Amazega
RF Campana
Rice Cube wrote:
I don’t think it matters to how the 2012 Cubs are going to perform. They could run a rotation out there of Soriano, Byrd, Castro, Stewart and LaHair and it’s not going to affect their chance to contend.
Is there any evidence that Theo or Hoyer ever took a bad pitcher and turned him into a good one? Is there any evidence that Dale Sveum was in any way involved with something like that? Theo and Hoyer may be a great front office, but they’re not great because they can turn bad players into good ones.
It’s like berselius said, it’s not like this is a competition between F7 and Rodrigo Lopez. Even if it was, I’d go with Lopez. Most of all, what I hate is that this guy could be given a job over someone better because of the tiny sample size in spring training that isn’t the least bit reflective of one’s talent. I expected the new Cubs manager to do better.
Rice Cube wrote:
The same could have been said in 2005, 2006, 2010 and 2011 and we still complained about the shit they were doing wrong. I think this is the equivalent of putting James Russell in the rotation. I’d probably even choose Russell over F7 to be honest. At least Russell can get lefties out. I don’t F7 can get anyone out. (dying laughing)
For example, how much did we complain about Koyie Hill being the backup catcher?
I think the new manager can probably be overruled by the front office. I also think if all things are equal and every candidate performs about the same they’ll just have Wells and Volstad in the rotation.
@ Rice Cube:
I hope so. That way it won’t be two completely wasted trades.
I haven’t done any adjusting yet, but after 25 completed surveys, here are the average plate appearances for each position player:
Player average
Starlin Castro 606
David DeJesus 514
Ian Stewart 446
Geovany Soto 439
Darwin Barney 433
Alfonso Soriano 422
Marlon Byrd 415
Bryan LaHair 399
Jeff Baker 216
Brett Jackson 201
Anthony Rizzo 174
Blake DeWitt 140
Welington Castillo 135
Joe Mather 119
Steve Clevenger 117
Tony Campana 107
Dave Sappelt 86
I’m surprised Byrd’s projection is that low. I love it when so many of you take part in these surveys. Hopefully we get more over the next few days.
I calculated the average by taking the midway point between your projections. If you selected 501-550 I used 525. Close enough.
@ mb21:
I think we were generally in agreement that the best candidates (which might not be saying much for this team (dying laughing)) would get into the rotation but just disagreed on how shitty F7 really was haha.
SkipVB wrote:
You’ll have to wait for the next Ask OV to find out.
mb21 wrote:
I suspect that most of that is due to expectation that he’ll be traded before the deadline
@ mb21:
I’m surprised that DeJesus’s numbers are so low. He’s going to be the leadoff hitter.
@ Berselius:
I sort of expected that he’d be sitting against lefties so kept him under 600 PA
@ Rice Cube:
Certain lefties anyway. Seems Sveum is content with him at leadoff no matter what.
Pujols is having quite a Spring Training (.455/.500/1.045). I knew all he needed was a change of scenery.
Georgetown with a last gasp…
I did have Georgetown losing in the second round, methinks. Too bad the rest of my bracket is crap (dying laughing)
Z vs. Cards today: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
Still haven’t done any adjusting, but here are the pitchers projected innings (Samardzija’s are the ones from this survey and not the one I set up earlier (I’ll fix that later):
Player average
Matt Garza 194
Ryan Dempster 185
Paul Maholm 159
Chris Volstad 151
Randy Wells 133
Jeff Samardzija 68
Travis Wood 60
Carlos Marmol 57
Kerry Wood 47
James Russell 47
Casey Coleman 32
Trey McNutt 32
Marcos Mateo 28
Rafael Dolis 22
Scott Maine 18
@ Aisle424:
Speaking of that, we do need some of you to email us some questions to ov@obstructedview.net. It will make it easier to continue the series and it would make it more fun. We’re all about fun here.
According to Dale Sveum, F7 is a virtual lock for the rotation. The Cubs never change. You could put the AL All-Stars in Cubs uniforms this year and there’s not a chance in hell they’d be as good as expected.
@ mb21:
Sent you one. Hope you guys get more so you can make it at least bi-weekly and Aisley’s banner doesn’t go to waste.
@ mb21:
I think I saw they said Dolis would get the reliever spot if F7 is in the rotation. I think without any other information besides how well he’s doing in camp, you’d just have to trust that the Cubs aren’t completely retarded by letting F7 start. Chances are he’ll probably suck ass as discussed earlier, but if it pans out, I still feel like it’s low-risk/high-reward. Maybe I’m alone but I don’t see this as being that big of a deal.
mb21 wrote:
@ Rice Cube:
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2012/03/18/318-samardzija-close-to-securing-spot/
I don’t trust anything from this organization.
@ ACT:
Berselius needs to do one of his facepalm threads.
@ mb21:
I don’t think some fans trust Theo Epstein either, which is understandable. I look at it like this…if the new guys think that F7 is really that bad, they’d nip this talk in the bud or overrule Sveum when the time comes. I’m not exactly welcoming this, but I guess my reaction is more of an apathetic shrug than tar and feathers (dying laughing)
@ mb21:
I need to put together a Samardzija projection post anyway, I’ll try to do one today (dying laughing)
@ Berselius:
According to Fangraphs the average FIP is 4.36 so add .8 to 1 run to that and you have your starter projection. He’ll be worse than replacement.
@ mb21:
Some of those have him starting some games, fwiw
I really doubt the Samardzija starting experiment lasts. Hell, I’d be surprised if it lasts through May. He still might blow it by the time Spring Training ends.
@ ACT:
I expect it will last 2 to 3 starts. If it extends through May you may as well leave him in the rotation all season and challenge the Astros for the number 1 pick.
@ Berselius:
If you take those generous projections out it only gets worse. (dying laughing)
@ mb21:
So far the projections have him below replacement level. As a reliever.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/jeff-samardzija-close-to-locking-down-spot-in-rotation.html
Volstad’s out after 4 IP. 4 hits, 1 ER, 3 K.
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