We can thank the Yankees early exit from the playoffs for SG’s CAIRO being released so early. For those of you who read ACB, the format for these projections will be similar. For those who didn’t, what we try to do is post the relevant information for each Cubs player. Last year we tended to do so in three parts: batters, pitchers, and splits. As more and more projections are released, we’ll post an average projection, but that’s sometime during spring training. I know berselius is writing on the player cards on The Hardball Times again for their Oliver projections. I’m not sure when those will be released, but my guess is they’ll be the next projections available.
These CAIRO projections extremely early. SG will release several more versions of it and when free agents sign with new teams we’ll get new projections. For now, it’s all the players on the Cubs from a year ago. I’ve included some guys who may be free agents just to get an idea how valuable they may be next year.
| Player | PA | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | WAR |
| Carlos Pena | 597 | .226 | .349 | .470 | .340 | 2.2 |
| Aramis Ramirez | 544 | .278 | .341 | .476 | .338 | 3.0 |
| Geovany Soto | 399 | .245 | .337 | .430 | .324 | 2.3 |
| Bryan LaHair | 368 | .261 | .327 | .450 | .323 | 0.9 |
| Starlin Castro | 631 | .287 | .340 | .412 | .321 | 2.9 |
| Reed Johnson | 226 | .280 | .329 | .423 | .316 | 0.5 |
| Blake DeWitt | 327 | .263 | .330 | .401 | .312 | 1.1 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 463 | .249 | .308 | .446 | .311 | 1.2 |
| Marlon Byrd | 468 | .270 | .324 | .409 | .310 | 1.6 |
| Steve Clevenger | 274 | .273 | .327 | .397 | .309 | 1.2 |
| Jeff Baker | 228 | .267 | .320 | .408 | .307 | 0.7 |
| Welington Castillo | 208 | .248 | .302 | .411 | .298 | 0.9 |
| Darwin Barney | 399 | .270 | .311 | .354 | .288 | 0.6 |
| D.J. LeMahieu | 364 | .271 | .308 | .353 | .287 | 0.3 |
| Tyler Colvin | 308 | .225 | .278 | .406 | .282 | 0.2 |
| Tony Campana | 346 | .260 | .308 | .327 | .280 | 0.1 |
| Koyie Hill | 235 | .222 | .283 | .320 | .262 | 0.3 |
Not at all surprising to see Pena and Ramirez at the top in terms of wOBA. A little disappointing the projection is as low as it is. Ramirez is obviously more valuable because he plays a more important defensive position (even if he plays it poorly). In terms of WAR, Ramirez and Castro are about equal.
I can’t think of any reason why Koyie Hill should be on the roster and I find it hard to believe the new front office will even offer him arbitration. They have three better catchers on the roster in Soto, Clevenger, and Castillo. There are probably additional catchers in the system who are better. Carlos Marmol would probably be a better backup catcher than Hill and Marmol hasn’t caught in 6 or so years.
Bryan LaHair is probably good enough that the Cubs shouldn’t consider signing Pena to a contract worth much money at all. If Pena wants to return for a few million, go for it, but he’s not that much better than LaHair.
Yesterday Fang asked about how much Ramirez may be worth on the free agent market since he now seems open to returning. I had planned to create a generic projection for him, but this is even better. He’s projected to be 3 WAR next year and at his age he’ll obviously get worse by about half a win each year. He wants a 3-year deal, or did last we heard about it anyway, so over 3 years he’d be worth 7.5 WAR.
The win value in 2011 was $4.5 million again. We have to expect some inflation so if we use 5% annually, we get an average win value over those 3 years of $5 million per win. That makes him worth about $37.5 million over the next 3 years. Teams get a discount when signing players to deals 3 years or longer of about 10% so signing Ramirez to a 3-year, $33.75 million would be fair. If I were the Cubs I’d try to knock that down to $30 million or even a bit less considering Ramirez’s tendency to get injured. The more he ages, the more the injuries are going to become a factor. I also think it’s reasonable to ask for some type of hometown discount. After all, he’s probably not best suited to play 3rd base anymore. The Cubs may be best to move him to 1st and go from there. If that’s the case, 3 years, $30 million is more than fair. It will also help Ramirez stay healthier.
The question is whether or not he wants to move to 1st base and how much he thinks he can get on the free agent market. I’m guessing there aren’t many teams that would sign him as a 3rd baseman at this point, but if he’s insistent on it there is certainly a team or two who would. More than likely one of them would be a legitimate contender next year.
Ramirez isn’t necessary to the Cubs success (or failure) in 2012 so I don’t want the Cubs to spend more than $30 million. If the Cubs could get him on a 2-year deal, that would be even better. Something like 2 years, $24 million would work.
Or maybe even a vesting option for a 3rd year based on plate appearances. Something like the 3rd year becomes guaranteed if he has 600 PA in 2013 or 1000 combined PA over the next 2 years. If he’s playing that much he’d still be pretty good so you don’t mind throwing in a little more money. Maybe the Cubs could do a 2-year guaranteed contract for $20 million with a 3rd year vesting option for $12 million. If the option doesn’t vest it becomes a mutual option.
Any other ideas? Just let him walk?
UPDATE: Since the WAR for Ramirez doesn’t include defense or baserunning, figured I’d include it. I I posted this on Tango’s blog.
Based on Ramirez’s 2012 CAIRO projection, he’s a 3 WAR player next year with the bat. Figure 2.3 including defense and baserunning. Using Tango’s .5 WAR decrease per season, that would be 1.8 and then 1.3. That’s 5.6 WAR over 3 years.
If the average win value over that span was $5 million, he’s worth $28 million. Add in the 10% bonus to the team for 3-year deals and it’s a 3-year, $25 million contract that he’d be worth.
Since the Cubs would pay the $2 million buyout, that would have to be factored in so he’d get a new 3 year, $23 million contract. As a Cubs fan, if he signs for that I’d be happy. I’d not be so happy if it was anything over $30 million and I want nothing to do with a fourth year.
[quote name=26.2cubsfan]I heard an interview with Bill James on NPR (linked earlier in one of the Theo threads) where James said that was the part of the movie he thought was most accurate – the depiction of scouts. I understood it as the physical appearance, but that would have been the perfect opportunity for James to stand up for scouts, and he did nothing of the sort.
/coolstorybro[/quote]That’s a really good point.
berselius, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with a scout being set in his ways. The problem was always with the front office that valued their reports as if they were fact. Little other analysis was put into it other than these reports. I don’t think scouts today are any different than they were a decade ago. They’re more understanding and realize now their jobs will never be taken away by computers, but I think that’s about it. I haven’t noticed any difference in scouting reports that I’ve read over the last decade than what I read prior to that. There’s a little more focus on getting on base, but not that much.
How much do you think the supplemental pick is worth? Would you base it on Rami’s $16MM option and compare it that way?
In somewhat related news http://www.bleachernation.com/2011/10/27/theo-epstein-wisely-suggests-hes-not-itching-to-dump-alfonso-soriano-and-carlos-zambrano/
I forgot to include this part: WAR for position players does NOT include defense yet.
[quote name=Rice Cube]How much do you think the supplemental pick is worth? Would you base it on Rami’s $16MM option and compare it that way?[/quote]I think supplemental picks have been found to be valued at about $2.5 million.
The option is a team one, right? What I’d do is decline the option. No way I want to pay him $16 million next year. Decline the option and if the Cubs do want him back in some way try to work out a deal. If one doesn’t worked out, offer him arbitration. The sides can still negotiate, but if he signs elsewhere the Cubs get a supplemental draft pick.
[quote name=mb21]That’s a really good point.
berselius, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with a scout being set in his ways. The problem was always with the front office that valued their reports as if they were fact. Little other analysis was put into it other than these reports. I don’t think scouts today are any different than they were a decade ago. They’re more understanding and realize now their jobs will never be taken away by computers, but I think that’s about it. I haven’t noticed any difference in scouting reports that I’ve read over the last decade than what I read prior to that. There’s a little more focus on getting on base, but not that much.[/quote]
Oh, I agree. Just talking about my impression of the movie. Scouts give far more value when talking about micro stuff (injuries, approaches, etc.) and things that the numbers don’t captuer because there’s no data (i.e. defense).
As cool as it is that Theo is saying all the right things regarding Zambrano and Soriano, let’s not forget that Theo trashed the living piss out of Manny Ramirez. I’m pretty sure he also got in some parting words for Nomar too. I don’t think that’s any different than any other GM. The difference right now is that Theo doesn’t know these guys so he has no reason to trash them. Manny was better than Sosa and he was run out of town and trashed by the front office in the same way Sosa was. Manny helped them win 2 championships.
[quote name=mb21]I think supplemental picks have been found to be valued at about $2.5 million.
The option is a team one, right? What I’d do is decline the option. No way I want to pay him $16 million next year. Decline the option and if the Cubs do want him back in some way try to work out a deal. If one doesn’t worked out, offer him arbitration. The sides can still negotiate, but if he signs elsewhere the Cubs get a supplemental draft pick.[/quote]It’s a team option but I think Aramis can void it so it’s almost like a mutual option. He’s said before he’d void it if the team picks it up, so if the team does pick up the option, they save the $2MM buyout as well and then can do the arbitration thing. I guess that would save them the tangible cash but you’d still have to replace the production at 3B assuming they want to quasi-contend. I’m not really sure which is the best.
[quote name=Berselius]Oh, I agree. Just talking about my impression of the movie. Scouts give far more value when talking about micro stuff (injuries, approaches, etc.) and things that the numbers don’t captuer because there’s no data (i.e. defense).[/quote]Agreed. I still want the scouts to be doing almost exactly what they were doing before. I just want the front office to use the information differently. That’s the great thing about this new front office. They WILL use that information differently.
[quote name=mb21]As cool as it is that Theo is saying all the right things regarding Zambrano and Soriano, let’s not forget that Theo trashed the living piss out of Manny Ramirez. I’m pretty sure he also got in some parting words for Nomar too. .[/quote]
Was it before or after he traded them, though? I think the point is more that Epstein isn’t shitting all over Soriano and Z and then saying “hey who wants these guys!”
[quote name=Berselius]Was it before or after he traded them, though? I think the point is more that Epstein isn’t shitting all over Soriano and Z and then saying “hey who wants these guys!”[/quote]I’m not exactly sure how it happened, but by the time Manny was traded he was despised by many, many Sox fans. It was just a year after they won their 2nd championship and it was like he was the worst player on earth and was just killing them as a team. It was ridiculous.
I guess my point is that this stuff happens with all teams. As much as it pisses me off how the cubs treated Sosa, this shit happens. These guys take things personally and they react to it.
I love how DeWitt projects better than Barney. Most fans seem to think DeWitt is terrible, but Barney is promising, for some mysterious reason.
By the time Nomar was traded he was a future hall of fame SS and one of the all-time great Sox to a horrible defensive SS standing in their way of a championship. Nomar said all the right things after joining the Cubs whereas Manny did not after joining the Dodgers. But when the Cubs acquired Nomar, Sox fans already believed he was part of the problem.
[quote name=ACT]I love how DeWitt projects better than Barney. Most fans seem to think DeWitt is terrible, but Barney is promising, for some mysterious reason.[/quote]I like Barney better because of his defense. I don’t mind him in the lineup but he better be hitting 8th.
The Red Sox gave up Manny and two guys who were once top 100 prospects to get Jason Bay. The Red Sox did save about $4 million, but they gave up a lot and didn’t get anything in return. As far as a trade that’s dumping a bad attitude for anything, the Cubs getting Hairston and Fontenot for Sosa is easily a better trade.
But looking at individual roster decisions is stupid. Theo is a hell of a lot better and improves the Cubs, but he’s human. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Berselius]I like Barney better because of his defense. I don’t mind him in the lineup but he better be hitting 8th.[/quote]I agree with this. DeWitt isn’t as bad as some people say. He’s a perfectly decent utility player, which teams needs. Barney probably isn’t much better than that unless his defense is really really good.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/aramis_ramirez/
(dying laughing) http://www.gaslampball.com/2011/10/27/2518485/official-jed-hoyer-and-jason-mcleod-are-cubs-josh-byrnes-is-gm-of-the
Can someone explain to me why an agent using some porn star to sign him is a big deal? What am I missing?
[quote name=mb21]Can someone explain to me why an agent using some porn star to sign him is a big deal? What am I missing?[/quote]That no one has ever used a porn star to get you to sign a mutli-million dollar endorsement package and that you should be angry about that. Everyone knows this.
[quote name=mb21]Can someone explain to me why an agent using some porn star to sign him is a big deal? What am I missing?[/quote]These evil agents are corrupting our athletes, who would rather just spend their time at home reading their bibles and/or playbooks. Rob Gronkowski never got that memo.
Nice to see Colvin projected to have a bounce-back year.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]That no one has ever used a porn star to get you to sign a mutli-million dollar endorsement package and that you should be angry about that. Everyone knows this.[/quote]Yeah, I just don’t get it. Was the porn star consenting to it? If so, who gives a fuck?
If I’m the player I’m pretty sure I can find someone just as hot who hasn’t banged 30,000 guys. I’d go that way, but that’s just me.
[quote name=uncle dave]Nice to see Colvin projected to have a bounce-back year.[/quote]I’ll be shocked if he even makes the team out of ST. I think he’s become part of the Jashevinah HoffoegerBois monster.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’ll be shocked if he even makes the team out of ST. I think he’s become part of the Jashevinah HoffoegerBois monster.[/quote]When “bouncing back” entails a .282 wOBA, I think that’s a pretty safe bet.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’ll be shocked if he even makes the team out of ST. I think he’s become part of the Jashevinah HoffoegerBois monster.[/quote]Which will now become the Tyjashevinah Hoffoegerboisovin monster.
[quote name=mb21]Yeah, I just don’t get it. Was the porn star consenting to it? If so, who gives a fuck?
If I’m the player I’m pretty sure I can find someone just as hot who hasn’t banged 30,000 guys. I’d go that way, but that’s just me.[/quote]Maybe he wanted to know what humping a blow-up doll really felt like.
[quote name=uncle dave]When “bouncing back” entails a .282 wOBA, I think that’s a pretty safe bet.[/quote](dying laughing), what a drastic fall for that guy.
[quote name=mb21]http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/aramis_ramirez/[/quote]I’m thinking they exercise the option to see what Ramirez does. I agree with the commenter that there’s no way Rami just accepts that option because he knows it’s his last payday and if he sucks, then that’s it.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Maybe he wanted to know what tossing a hot dog down a hallway felt like.[/quote].
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder].[/quote]I would have gone with pencil down a mineshaft (dying laughing).
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder].[/quote]Perhaps we can compromise and call it “tossing a hot dog down the entrance of a bounce house”…
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-dangers-of-on-base-percentage/
[quote name=mb21]Yeah, I just don’t get it. Was the porn star consenting to it? If so, who gives a fuck?
If I’m the player I’m pretty sure I can find someone just as hot who hasn’t banged 30,000 guys. I’d go that way, but that’s just me.[/quote]Yeah, but will she fuck you like a pornstar would? That’s the question.
[quote name=Mucker]Yeah, but will she fuck you like a pornstar would? That’s the question.[/quote]How much fuck could a pornstar fuck if a pornstar could fuck fuck.
(oh, man, i can only imagine the incoming search hits this comment will generate.)
[quote name=Berselius]I would have gone with golf pencil down a mineshaft (dying laughing).[/quote].
[quote name=Mucker]Yeah, but will she fuck you like a pornstar would? That’s the question.[/quote]It’s an ego thing, I think. You get to say you did it.
[quote name=uncle dave]It’s an ego thing, I think. You get to say you did it.[/quote]To your doctor. As he administers the penicillin injection.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]How much fuck could a pornstar fuck if a pornstar could fuck fuck.[/quote]
37.42
[quote name=uncle dave]It’s an ego thing, I think. You get to say you did it.[/quote]You can say you did it even if you didn’t. I fucked a porn star.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]To your doctor. As he administers the penicillin injection.[/quote]
[quote name=Eddie Murphy]What’s next, you put your dick in and it just explodes?[/quote].
Wow, that came out wrong.
[quote name=mb21]You can say you did it even if you didn’t. I fucked a porn star.[/quote]The bar’s set awfully low these days, isn’t it.
[quote name=uncle dave]It’s an ego thing, I think. You get to say you did it.[/quote]Maybe for them, but I would really liked to be fucked by a pornstar.
This is an extended PTI with Theo:
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/6938/video-bonus-footage-of-epstein-on-pti
[quote name=Mucker]Maybe for them, but I would really liked to be fucked by a pornstar.[/quote]I bet Ron Jeremy is available.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I bet Ron Jeremy is available.[/quote]LMFAO……….too big.
Well, I’m going to go fuck another porn star. See ya’ll later.
Wut. First their top two baseball guys, and now the Padres’ manager? It’s like SD just became the Cubs’ AAA affiliate for personnel.
(dying laughing) @ the “Way to go, kid” after my last comment. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]Wut. First their top two baseball guys, and now the Padres’ manager? It’s like SD just became the Cubs’ AAA affiliate for personnel.[/quote]Levine is at sea. I don’t think he knows anything.
[quote name=mb21](dying laughing) @ the “Way to go, kid” after my last comment. (dying laughing)[/quote]Is that a new macro?
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Levine is at sea. I don’t think he knows anything.[/quote]Yeah, I’ve never heard that one before.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Yeah, I’ve never heard that one before.[/quote]Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.[/quote]Bruce will be right twice today?
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.[/quote]MO —> White Confucius
[quote name=Rice Cube]MO —> White Confucius[/quote]He who stands on the toilet is high on pot.
He who stands in airport doors sideways is going to Bangkok.
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]Bruce will be right twice today?[/quote]If the Daily Herald lets him come into work.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]If the Daily Herald lets him come into work.[/quote]Derp? They fired Bruce Miles?
[quote name=Rice Cube]Derp? They fired Bruce Miles?[/quote]No, but their paywall insures fewer people read his work, and they stopped paying for him to go to away games 2-3 years ago.
http://reason.com/blog/2011/10/27/breaking-baseball-manager-says
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]No, but their paywall insures fewer people read his work, and they stopped paying for him to go to away games 2-3 years ago.[/quote]Hope they pay for cable so he can at least write game recaps.
David wins.
http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2011/10/27/2518825/ncaa-athlete-payments-2000-apr-postseason-ban
New Military Bowl mascot:
His name is “Sgt. Stripes” (dying laughing)
http://eye-on-football.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22475988/32961290
this could get ugly
[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock]New Military Bowl mascot:
His name is “Sgt. Stripes” (dying laughing)[/quote]
Wow that is real
In Sgt. Stripes defense, we engineers (who I imagine are most of the employees at NG) are not that creative (dying laughing)
Who wins? Sgt. Stripes or the Geico stack of money?
[quote name=WaLi]Who wins? Sgt. Stripes or the Geico stack of money?
WOAH
http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/7156063/jed-hoyer-path-chicago-cubs-general-manager-swift-unconventional
[quote name=mb21]http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/7156063/jed-hoyer-path-chicago-cubs-general-manager-swift-unconventional[/quote]
Sun-Times headline
“Jed Hoyer: not real baseball man, played in Cape Cod League”
That is a cool article MB. He’s an impressive guy.
Jerry Garcia is alive and well and living in Maine.
[quote name=Suburban kid 23]Jerry Garcia is alive and well and living in Maine.[/quote]Nice. Any new albums coming out?
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]That is a cool article MB. He’s an impressive guy.[/quote]Yeah, both he and Theo are. McLeod has improved two farm systems significantly so I’m excited to see what the Cubs farm system looks like in a few years.
[quote name=mb21]Nice. Any new albums coming out?[/quote]Too busy liking prostitutes, booze and cigarettes to make records for you punk ass kids. Clever alias, though.
Cardinals lose.
I can’t believe Garcia got out of that one with just one run given up. Nice comeback.
By the power of Fat Elvis…
That Lewis bunt was pure misery
Yeah it was
Wonder if this works…
By Vince LiFonti.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Holliday could have camped under that for 5 seconds.
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]That Lewis bunt was pure misery[/quote]He should have just struck out.
Salas is throwing batting practice.
Good luck, b: http://starbucksgossip.typepad.com/_/2011/10/meet-the-grossest-starbucks-customer-in-new-york-city.html
[quote name=Rice Cube]Salas is throwing batting practice.[/quote]Complete with half-hearted attempts to make catches.
losing Napoli could be a huge blow if the Rangers don’t win this one.
OWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
Motherfucking fuck that motherfucker Matt Fucking Holliday.
Can we count that as a takeout slide now? I forget the rule from when he did that to Castro.
Fuck Holiday. He didn’t even reach for the bag
I didn’t know you could blatantly throw a fist into the shortstop to upend him.
Lynn getting ready for his IBB
I guess that was to atone for his error…
Whats fucked up is if Andrus was hurt on that play they would make a rule about taking out the defender at 2b. Why wait for that to happen?
Punto never seals the deal with the bat breaking.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Punto never seals the deal with the bat breaking.[/quote]Yeah he made me (dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
TWO HANDS!
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing) wow
I wonder if the WS has a higher chance for errors, because of the pressure, or if this is just a super sloppy WS.
Michael Young doesn’t suck tonight.
Defense wins championships
[quote name=WaLi22]Defense wins championships[/quote]Which defense will suck less?
[quote name=WaLi22]Fuck Holiday. He didn’t even reach for the bag[/quote]Hey he aimed his spikes at Castro. I think I’d rather catch a fist than a belly full of cleats.
[quote name=josh]Hey he aimed his spikes at Castro. I think I’d rather catch a fist than a belly full of cleats.[/quote]Right. Both incidents prove he is an asshole. Also it looked like it was a fist or elbow to the crotch (dying laughing)
Holland is warming up…why not pinch-hit for Lewis and blow this thing up?
Yeah dont really agree. Oh well
[quote name=Rice Cube]Holland is warming up…why not pinch-hit for Lewis and blow this thing up?[/quote]Never mind then…
Thank god there’s no DH.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Holland is warming up…why not pinch-hit for Lewis and blow this thing up?[/quote]Because Ron Washington is an idiot?
What happened to all hands on deck? If Lewis can’t record an out here it’ll look stupider than it already is.
How many warmup pitches does Lance Lynn have to throw to prepare for his IBB?
[quote name=ACT]Because Ron Washington is an idiot?[/quote]I don’t know if he’s an idiot, but he manages by this sort of hero mentality. He also doesn’t look like he knows what the hell he’s doing with NL rules. I bet he’d be reviled if his team didn’t happen to be so talented, though.
Way to bail out Lewis, Cards!
[quote name=Rice Cube]How many warmup pitches does Lance Lynn have to throw to prepare for his IBB?[/quote]Enough to wear his arm out, preferably.
[quote name=josh]I don’t know if he’s an idiot, but he manages by this sort of hero mentality. He also doesn’t look like he knows what the hell he’s doing with NL rules. I bet he’d be reviled if his team didn’t happen to be so talented, though.[/quote]Ron Washington —> black Bob Brenly?
Not watching the game, but I’m utterly baffled at how little confidence TLR has in Garcia.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ron Washington —> black Bob Brenly?[/quote]i was thinking Ned Yost, but that works too.
Also fuck Matt Holliday in the ear.
[quote name=Berselius]Also fuck Matt Holliday in the ear.[/quote]Don’t tell me what to do.
[quote name=Berselius]Not watching the game, but I’m utterly baffled at how little confidence TLR has in Garcia.[/quote]How’s he going to prove he’s better than some Moneyball guy if he doesn’t over manage as early as possible?
[quote name=GBTS]Don’t tell me what to do.[/quote]Don’t fuck Matt Holliday in the ear.
Strike four on Pujols.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Strike four on Pujols.[/quote]Pujols had a point though.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Pujols had a point though.[/quote]yeah pitch track basically agreed with him, though they both could have been called strikes too
I’m nervous about Ogando. The Cards seemed to have his number the last couple times
Pujols only has what, 3 hits from one game this series? But they were all home runs (dying laughing)
[quote name=WaLi22]Pujols only has what, 3 hits from one game this series? But they were all home runs (dying laughing)[/quote]So not clutch.
(dying laughing) @ Michael Young
So many fucking errors!
[quote name=WaLi22]So many fucking errors![/quote]It’s a porn star’s most embarrassing moment.
/semantics
This is getting into Butler/UConn territory.
Nolan Ryan —> “Everyone’s fired if you lose this game” face
Is washington wearing batting gloves? (dying laughing)
[quote name=WaLi22]Is washington wearing batting gloves? (dying laughing)[/quote]TLR was doing that too, in the first two games.
[quote name=WaLi22]Pujols only has what, 3 hits from one game this series? But they were all home runs (dying laughing)[/quote]He was 5-6. 3 were homers.
I don’t have a problem with Tony’s pulling Garcia early. Better to yank the pitcher early than late.
GBDP would look pretty good right now.
[quote name=ACT]I don’t have a problem with Tony’s pulling Garcia early. Better to yank the pitcher early than late.[/quote]Salas pitched well, he was plagued by stupidity behind him though.
That was the most exciting bases loaded walk of Yadier Molina’s life.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Salas pitched well, he was plagued by stupidity behind him though.[/quote]Well, to be fair, one part of that stupidity was his own, though.
Nolan Ryan —> “You motherfucker…”
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
TOOTBLAN
FUCK YOU MATT HOLLIDAY
Holiday (dying laughing)
That might have been the greatest pickoff in World Series history, considering his left ankle isn’t even attached to his body.
Matt Holliday out because he didn’t touch the bag. Padres fans just started drinking heavily.
What will John Jay do?
[quote name=Rice Cube]What will John Jay do?[/quote]Suck!
Beltre!
HELL, Yes! Beltre!
Jesus Beltre is good. TLR is out of OF’s in the 7th inning (dying laughing) I hope the game goes 14 innings now
Should have walked him
Whoa Nellie!
Wouldn’t have mattered!
I want one more.
B2B2B?
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
TLR FAIL
Seems AL pitchers can’t bunt very well.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
“A severely bruised little finger.”
I was thinking more a severely bruised little bitch.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Seems AL pitchers can’t bunt very well.[/quote]Somebody tell Wash that he’s allowed to remove them for real hitters.
Theriot ——-> White flag
Quote TLR: Whoa! Whoa! God damn, Jon!
[quote name=ACT]Somebody tell Wash that he’s allowed to remove them for real hitters.[/quote]Seems they can run well though. Shut me right up.
I think La Russa’s strategy of telling Pujols not to hit any homeruns since game 1 is starting to backfire.
[quote name=josh]I think La Russa’s strategy of telling Pujols not to hit any homeruns since game 1 is starting to backfire.[/quote]TLR’s distaste for OBP appears to be a flawless strategy.
Who’s MVP? Holland or Napoli?
[quote name=Rice Cube]Who’s MVP? Holland or Napoli?[/quote]Co, in my book.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Who’s MVP? Holland or Napoli?[/quote]
I think Napoli might have clinched it with that pick off throw. He gets extra points for breaking his ankle earlier in the game. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Co, in my book.[/quote]I like that.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Co, in my book.[/quote]Up until Holland pitched, it really looked like the Cards were going to win. he changed the tone, assuming the Rangers hold onto this one, of course.
But Napoli has been instrumental in every victory, or so it seems.
[quote name=josh]Up until Holland pitched, it really looked like the Cards were going to win. he changed the tone, assuming the Rangers hold onto this one, of course.[/quote]
Uh, did Holland’s “tone” carry Beltre and Cruz’s homers out of the park? (dying laughing)
[quote name=josh]But Napoli has been instrumental in every victory, or so it seems.[/quote]Napoli > Mike Scoscia’s judgment
I say Lynn for MVP. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]Who’s MVP? Holland or Napoli?[/quote]LaRussa.
[quote name=melissa]Uh, did Holland’s “tone” carry Beltre and Cruz’s homers out of the park? (dying laughing)[/quote]On pure moustache power.
I really want a game 7.
[quote name=melissa]Uh, did Holland’s “tone” carry Beltre and Cruz’s homers out of the park? (dying laughing)[/quote]No, but it shut down the Cards offense, and they haven’t recovered. Well, they’ve recovered a little bit this game, but they’re on the ropes.
I assume Beltre may get a few votes, but it’s gotta be Napoli unless Holland goes 2IP or more tonite that are really crucial.
[quote name=mb22]I really want a game 7.[/quote]This Cubs off-season is going to be my game 7.
Whoops. No more MVP.
[quote name=mb22]I really want a game 7.[/quote]Shut it, you.
More of that.
I’m calling right now: After re-signing Pujols to an expensive as hell contract, the Cards trade Holliday, with Berkman to LF and Craig the starting RF.
Pesky Molina brother.
[quote name=mb22]More of that.[/quote]Banned.
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]I’m calling right now: After re-signing Pujols to an expensive as hell contract, the Cards trade Holliday, with Berkman to LF and Craig the starting RF.[/quote]Not a horrible idea, to free up the funds.
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]I’m calling right now: After re-signing Pujols to an expensive as hell contract, the Cards trade Holliday to the Yankees, with Berkman to LF and Craig the starting RF.[/quote].
Cards hopes ——-> Gerald Laird.
EDIT: LAIRD DENIED!?
[quote name=josh]Cards hopes ——-> Gerald Laird.
EDIT: LAIRD DENIED!?[/quote]I think they use Descalso here. It’s too bad, I would’ve tried to pinch-run for the Molina brother. But they need two runs so I can understand it.
Just left this comment on Tango’s post about Ramirez since it’s relevant here and it updates the figures from the post:
Based on Ramirez’s 2012 CAIRO projection, he’s a 3 WAR player next year with the bat. Figure 2.3 including defense and baserunning. Using Tango’s .5 WAR decrease per season, that would be 1.8 and then 1.3. That’s 5.6 WAR over 3 years.
If the average win value over that span was $5 million, he’s worth $28 million. Add in the 10% bonus to the team for 3-year deals and it’s a 3-year, $25 million contract that he’d be worth.
Since the Cubs would pay the $2 million buyout, that would have to be factored in so he’d get a new 3 year, $23 million contract. As a Cubs fan, if he signs for that I’d be happy. I’d not be so happy if it was anything over $30 million and I want nothing to do with a fourth year.
(dying laughing)
First pitch swinging but still safe at first…bad decision.
That may be as low as 2.0 including defense and baserunning. I’d actually bet on that. I haven’t looked at his baserunning numbers lately, but for some reason I think he’s been about -5 the last couple years. Could be wrong on that. Pretty sure he’s at least a -5 fielder. If it’s 2 WAR next that’s a total of 4.5 WAR over 3 years. That’s a 3-year, $20 million contract.
What the fuck?
[quote name=mb22]That may be as low as 2.0 including defense and baserunning. I’d actually bet on that. I haven’t looked at his baserunning numbers lately, but for some reason I think he’s been about -5 the last couple years. Could be wrong on that. Pretty sure he’s at least a -5 fielder. If it’s 2 WAR next that’s a total of 4.5 WAR over 3 years. That’s a 3-year, $20 million contract.[/quote]I think Ramirez would be insulted by that contract.
Oh wow…bases loaded for Rafael Furcal (dying laughing)
Edit: forgot about Furcal, my bad
Fuck Moneyball. (dying laughing)
[quote name=GBTS]What the fuck?[/quote]Would you ask Tom Petty that question?
Ah, first pitch out justice.
I thought Adams was out of it. What was that weak sauce throw by Andrus?
According to fangraphs, Rami is right around -5 BSR, and -5 looks fair to for the last few years on defense.
I was just thinking about defense. What about a logarithm type weighting based on opportunities. Fewer opportunities means much lower weight attached, whereas lots of opportunities approaches a weight of 1 asymptotically.
Okay, back to the game.
I’d just like to say that Joe Buck and Tim McCarver are horrible and I hope that if Vin Scully is available, he should be allowed to announce the World Series for the rest of his natural life.
Or Uecker. I think Uecker would be fun.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I’d just like to say that Joe Buck and Tim McCarver are horrible and I hope that if Vin Scully is available, he should be allowed to announce the World Series for the rest of his natural life.[/quote]The way those two fuckheads have canonized Craig is sinful.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Or Uecker. I think Uecker would be fun.[/quote]THIS
Ramirez does seem like a classic designated hitter at this point in his career. His other numbers get worse, but his hitting gets better and better. 3.6 WAR after posting terrible BSR and the worst FLD score of his life. 2010 was horrilbe for him for hitting, but I still have to believe he ends up better than 2 WAR. I guess it depends on his position, too, right?
Has Vin Scully ever done TV? I do enjoy listening to him.
DO. NOT. WALK. THERIOT.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Or Uecker. I think Uecker would be fun.[/quote]GET UP! GET UP! GET OUTTA HERE AND GOOONE!
I like this idea.
Ah jeez. Feliz switched to Marmol mode.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ah jeez. Feliz switched to Marmol mode.[/quote]Yeah…. “switched to.”
GBDP or Nolan Ryan will eat your heart.
“Throw fucking strikes” as Lou would say.
ONE OUT AWAY
What the hell was Craig looking for? Holy shit.
OHHHHHHHHHHHH MY
Horrible defense wins again.
(dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
SHIT
CUCK THE FARDINALS
HATE
Jesus Christ, Nelly. Play the bounce and your team still has the lead.
Buck and McCarver are basically celebrating on air
Nelson Cruz just gave back his home run.
How does Cruz not get to that ball playing that deep?
Just a reminder that TLR, the great genius has no OF left. He almost can’t pinch hit for anyone.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ah jeez. Feliz switched to Marmol mode.[/quote]“Switched”? He’s been like this all year, regular- and post-season.
Wonder which one of his pitchers pinch-bunt.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Just a reminder that TLR, the great genius has no OF left. He almost can’t pinch hit for anyone.[/quote]Almost? His bench is empty.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Buck and McCarver are basically celebrating on air[/quote]They get an extra payday if it goes to 7.
[quote name=GBTS]Almost? His bench is empty.[/quote]Uh, he had Carpenter!
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Just a reminder that TLR, the great genius has no OF left. He almost can’t pinch hit for anyone.[/quote]There’s a lot to criticize TLR about, but that’s not one of them. In what may be the final game of the season, you’re not holding players back. You’re using them when you think you need to and dealing with what comes later.
Texas fucked that up by putting Berkman on. Dumbest fucking thing I’ve seen in this WS yet. Put the tying runner on base. Great idea.
[quote name=GBTS]How does Cruz not get to that ball playing that deep?[/quote]Hit too hard and to too flat.
FUCK YO COUCH, BITCHES
Just crazy
Cards lose.
[quote name=josh]Hit too hard and to too flat.[/quote]Yeah I guess that’s fair.
Hamilton!
(dying laughing)
Cards have to bat a pitcher next inning.
DELETED
[quote name=mb21]
Texas fucked that up by putting Berkman on. Dumbest fucking thing I’ve seen in this WS yet. Put the tying runner on base. Great idea.[/quote]He wasn’t intentionally walked . . .
[quote name=GBTS](dying laughing)
Cards have to bat a pitcher next inning.[/quote]It’s how heroes are born.
Apparently a sports hernia is like a regular hernia, but a little less severe, in that your guts aren’t actually poking out through the muscle.
It’s like they never want this game to end.
No one wants to win.
Hahahahahaha, LaRussa will now give away an out to a pitcher who can’t get one. GENIUS
Wait what? Did TLR just burn two pitchers on one pinch-bunt?
[quote name=Rice Cube]Wait what? Did TLR just burn two pitchers on one pinch-bunt?[/quote]Yes.
Even my wife thinks this bunt is stupid.
That’s probably an okay bunt, given the circumstances.
Why did Edwin Jackson get announced first?
That was a really good bunt.
Oh please, IBB Theriot to get to Pujols. I dare you.
Could the Cards have any more
luckvariance?I think your strategy here is to do whatever it takes to get Pujols up to the plate, which means no double plays. That was a rare bunt that I don’t mind. WE only went down 3%.
[quote name=GBTS]I think your strategy here is to do whatever it takes to get Pujols up to the plate, which means no double plays. That was a rare bunt that I don’t mind.[/quote]DP would be pretty unlikely with 1B open. Don’t get picked off like a Holliday.
Theriot can still TOOTBLAN to end the World Series.
[quote name=josh]DP would be pretty unlikely with 1B open. Don’t get picked off like a Holliday.[/quote]I know, I meant thats why you bunt there.
OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH BOY
http://twitter.com/#!/DSzymborski/status/129773838752948224
(dying laughing)
Ah, IBB again.
Guys, that could have been Albert Pujols’ last at bat as a Cardinal for the third time tonight.
Don’t let Berkman get a hit here. That’s key.
[quote name=GBTS]Guys, that could have been Albert Pujols’ last at bat as a Cardinal for the third time tonight.[/quote]That could be the last time you comment on hearing how that was the last at bat of Pujols’ Cardinals career.
(dying laughing)
Hate the Cardinals. Love baseball.
What a shitshow. This isn’t exciting, it’s like watching two people pour shit on each other and laugh about it afterwards. (dying laughing)
A fastball right down the middle is kind of what I was referring to, when I said to avoid letting him hit.
Joe Buck is tumescent.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]What a shitshow. This isn’t exciting, it’s like watching two people pour shit on each other and laugh about it afterwards. (dying laughing)[/quote]The first 8 innings were laughable. It’s impossible not to enjoy this.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]What a shitshow. This isn’t exciting, it’s like watching two people pour shit on each other and laugh about it afterwards. (dying laughing)[/quote]This could be the last time you refer to Pujols’ shit-eating grin while he’s a Cardinal ever.
How many RP does TLR have left? This matters because he’ll soon have to decide whether or not he wants to hit Carpenter or have him pitch, since he burned two pitchers on one AB.
Wow. Did someone from the Rays leak the “infinite extra lives” code to the Cardinals?
[quote name=GBTS]The first 8 innings were laughable. It’s impossible not to enjoy this.[/quote]I disagree.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I disagree.[/quote]
(dying laughing)
[quote name=ACT]Wow. Did someone from the Rays leak the “infinite extra lives” code to the Cardinals?[/quote]
Up up down down left right left right B A start
C’mon, this game is classic. Cards just won’t stay down.
Why use the reserve catcher here? What is Washington doing? Is his bench empty?
[quote name=josh]C’mon, this game is classic. Cards just won’t stay down.[/quote]A poorly defended, poorly pitched, poorly managed game might be exciting, but it’s no classic. This is a terrible display of baseball.
Oh come the shit hell on. Don’t let the pitcher hit.
Esteban German! Joe Poz must be yelling right now.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]A poorly defended, poorly pitched, poorly managed game might be exciting, but it’s no classic. This is a terrible display of baseball.[/quote]i would like to go to bed.
C.J. Wilson is the only pitcher left after whoever the hell this next guy is.
[quote name=josh]Oh come the shit hell on. Don’t let the pitcher hit.[/quote][quote name=GBTS]C.J. Wilson is the only pitcher left after whoever the hell this next guy is.[/quote]Washington and TLR are in a race to outmismanage one another.
[quote name=GBTS]C.J. Wilson is the only pitcher left after whoever the hell this next guy is.[/quote]They’re saving him for Game 9.
Mike Gonzalez is available, no?
MB gets his wish.
Original call from Buck there.
That was more like watching the Little League World Series. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]MB gets his wish.[/quote]Ugh. I’m so fucking sick of looking at Tony La Russa. I wanted this shit to just end.
Nolan Ryan is sad.
Nolan Ryan is going to choke a bitch.
[quote name=Rice Cube]MB gets his wish.[/quote]And is banned for it.
[quote name=josh]Ugh. I’m so fucking sick of looking at Tony La Russa. I wanted this shit to just end.[/quote]Same. I don’t want anything good to happen to that shitheel.
[quote name=GBTS]Nolan Ryan is going to choke a bitch.[/quote]You! Hippy guy who looks like CJ, kind of and gave up that homerun. Carve our your heart and give it to me. I HUNGER!
I can’t imagine a scenario where Texas wins tomorrow
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Same. I don’t want anything good to happen to that shitheel.[/quote]Well, maybe it’ll be that much sweeter after this game when the Rangers trounce them 11-3 tomorrow.
Freese should never talk.
I know Cubs fans enjoy hating the Cardinals, but this is just a fun team to watch right now.
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]I can’t imagine a scenario where Texas wins tomorrow[/quote]They could score more runs, while simultaneously preventing the Cardinals from scoring them. I mean, I can imagine it. Nelly Cruz being hurt may be a blow, though.
Freese’s WPA: .953. That doesn’t include the error, though.
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]I can’t imagine a scenario where Texas wins tomorrow[/quote]Yeah. They are in deep shit.
[quote name=mb21]I know Cubs fans enjoy hating the Cardinals, but this is just a fun team to watch right now.[/quote]I enjoy the Rangers. I’d listen to the Rangers on MLB radio this season when I needed some background sound.
[quote name=mb21]I know Cubs fans enjoy hating the Cardinals, but this is just a fun team to watch right now.[/quote]Yeah, all the shitty defense and bunts are scintillating.
[quote name=josh]They could score more runs, while simultaneously preventing the Cardinals from scoring them. I mean, I can imagine it. Nelly Cruz being hurt may be a blow, though.[/quote]
Carpenter vs. Hairison
And Feese worshipping Larussa after the game. gag
As a friend just told me, it’s worth pointing out that tomorrow night’s game will be played in St. Louis because of the outcome of an exhibition game.
Edit: ^^What he said^^
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]And Feese worshipping Larussa after the game. gag[/quote]Ugh.
[quote name=mb21]I know Cubs fans enjoy hating the Cardinals, but this is just a fun team to watch right now.[/quote]
I read this in Tim McCarver’s voice.
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]I can’t imagine a scenario where Texas wins tomorrow[/quote]Nope. They’re done. Tomorrow is just a technicality. Part of me wanted Texas to win because they never have won a WS, but I’ve haven’t been able to root against the Cardinals. Now I want the Cardinals to win it. Of the teams in the postseason this year, none have been nearly as much fun to watch as they have been in my opinion.
/goestobedbeforecubsfansgoapeshitfuckingcrazy
I think Lohse or Jackson is set to pitch tomorrow, but Carpenter out of the pen?
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]As a friend just told me, it’s worth pointing out that tomorrow night’s game will be played in St. Louis because of the outcome of an exhibition game.[/quote]That pisses me off and always will. It’s just retarded.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think Lohse or Jackson is set to pitch tomorrow, but Carpenter out of the pen?[/quote]I thought I read or heard that Carpenter was getting the start.
[quote name=mb21]Nope. They’re done. Tomorrow is just a technicality. Part of me wanted Texas to win because they never have won a WS, but I’ve haven’t been able to root against the Cardinals. Now I want the Cardinals to win it. Of the teams in the postseason this year, none have been nearly as much fun to watch as they have been in my opinion.
/goestobedbeforecubsfansgoapeshitfuckingcrazy[/quote]I wouldn’t piss on the Cardinals if they were on fire and covered in orphans. (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]I thought I read or heard that Carpenter was getting the start.[/quote]Ah, I muted it. Thanks.
You figure C.J. Wilson has to be available out of the pen, yeah?
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I wouldn’t piss on the Cardinals if they were on fire and covered in orphans. (dying laughing)[/quote]I wouldn’t either, but I also wouldn’t piss on the Cubs if they were on fire. Those are big fires and I don’t think I could put it out by urinating on it. Probably burn my myself and wouldn’t be able to fuck any more porn stars. (dying laughing)
[quote name=GBTS]You figure C.J. Wilson has to be available out of the pen, yeah?[/quote]I think everyone’s available, even the guys who started in tonight’s game. All hands on deck. They can use the offseason to reattach their arms.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ah, I muted it. Thanks.[/quote]I don’t know if it’s true or not. I know they just said they haven’t announced their starter. I’d be shocked if the match-up tomorrow isn’t Carpenter vs Wilson.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think everyone’s available, even the guys who started in tonight’s game. All hands on deck. They can use the offseason to reattach their arms.[/quote]Yep. There are 25 guys available on each roster. Some probably won’t be used, but neither team is going to refuse to use a guy if they’re needed.
[quote name=mb21]Yep. There are 25 guys available on each roster. Some probably won’t be used, but neither team is going to refuse to use a guy if they’re needed.[/quote]They might even use them all by the 6th. (dying laughing)
[quote name=GBTS]They might even use them all by the 6th. (dying laughing)[/quote]TLR: “I can use them all by the FIFTH inning!”
Wash: “TLR, use that roster!”
/NameThatTune’d
BTF now has ZiPS projections for the Cubs (remember them?): http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2012_zips_projections_-_chicago_cubs/
Spoiler: Koyie Hill is bad.
Starlin Castro’s top 3 comps:
Derek Jeter
Robin Yount
George Brett
Nice place to be…
Aramis Ramirez’ top comp is Brooks Robinson. I guess it doesn’t include defense…
[quote name=ACT]Aramis Ramirez’ top comp is Brooks Robinson. I guess it doesn’t include leadership…[/quote].
[quote name=ACT]BTF now has ZiPS projections for the Cubs (remember them?): http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2012_zips_projections_-_chicago_cubs//quote
I’ve always said that Steve Clevenger reminds me a lot of Steven Clevenger.
also, reed johnson = wimpy
More heinous Sun-Times fuckery:
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/8430097-573/what-makes-theo-epsteins-way-any-different-from-predecessors.html
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]More heinous Sun-Times fuckery:
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/8430097-573/what-makes-theo-epsteins-way-any-different-from-predecessors.html/quote(dying laughing)
That one basically said GMs don’t matter and the only thing that really matters in baseball is luck.
I take back what I said last night. That game was painful to watch.
Dear baseball,
Fuck you. I quit.
Sincerely,
Go fuck yourself
[quote name=mb21]Nope. They’re done. Tomorrow is just a technicality. Part of me wanted Texas to win because they never have won a WS, but I’ve haven’t been able to root against the Cardinals. Now I want the Cardinals to win it. Of the teams in the postseason this year, none have been nearly as much fun to watch as they have been in my opinion.
/goestobedbeforecubsfansgoapeshitfuckingcrazy[/quote]
YOU are not allowed to cheer for a wildcard team in the playoffs.
Yeah, I went there.
[quote name=ACT]BTF now has ZiPS projections for the Cubs (remember them?): http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2012_zips_projections_-_chicago_cubs//quote
ZiPS loves Starlin Castro
Year BA/OBP/SLG WAR
2012 301/343/432 3.5
2013 308/352/464 4.4
2014 310/356/475 4.8
2015 311/359/479 5.0
2016 310/359/487 5.2
2017 309/360/483 5.1
2018 304/357/479 4.8
2019 304/357/479 4.7
2020 302/354/471 4.3
2021 300/351/466 3.9
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/8457616-573/cubs-incumbent-scouting-director-tim-wilken-is-a-happy-camper.html
Wilken is cool with his new bosses.
So far, projections are less than encouraging for Bryan LaHair.
ZiPS has Tony Campana getting CS 13 times. Doesn’t it know how fast Campana is? He is faster than Superman and the Flash combined.