As was done in days of yore, dm and I are rolling out projection posts going into the season. We're not doing anything too complicated – just doing some simple averaging of the systems out there with some tweaks of our own if we see them. There will be inherent flaws in this – each system presumably makes different less than obvious assumptions, whether in terms of playing time, league environments, time spent at various positions, etc. But it's good enough to get an idea of what the systems expect and spark some conversation. The players' 2015 numbers are also included at the top of the table for reference.
We'll start with the guy who will get most of the time at second base.
| Player | Projection | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Def | BsR | WAR |
| Ben Zobrist | 2015 Stats | 535 | 129 | 36 | 3 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 3 | 4 | .276 | .359 | .450 | .349 | -11.5 | -0.9 | 2.1 |
| Ben Zobrist | ZiPS | 560 | 133 | 31 | 4 | 14 | 64 | 70 | 7 | 4 | .273 | .356 | .439 | .346 | -3 | *** | 3.2 |
| Ben Zobrist | PECOTA | 642 | 147 | 35 | 4 | 14 | 73 | 97 | 8 | 5 | .263 | .348 | .415 | .336 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 3.5 |
| Ben Zobrist | CAIRO | 612 | 140 | 36 | 3 | 12 | 67 | 81 | 7 | 4 | .261 | .342 | .407 | .331 | *** | *** | 3 |
| Ben Zobrist | Steamer | 550 | 131 | 31 | 2 | 12 | 61 | 70 | 6 | 3 | .273 | .356 | .424 | .340 | 0.9 | -0.3 | 3 |
| Ben Zobrist | Average | 591 | 138 | 33 | 3 | 13 | 66 | 80 | 7 | 4 | .268 | .351 | .421 | .338 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 3.2 |
As you may recall, I was not a huge fan of the Zobrist signing at the time. What position did the Cubs have more depth at than middle infield, and why the hell were they locking up guys in their mid 30s to long term deals? Of course, as time passed and they picked up Heyward, which I had figured to be a pipe dream, this made more sense and was a clear going-for-it move. But in my head the initial displeasure at the move still lingers, like the smell of burnt microwave popcorn that your dumbass coworker made two hours ago that won’t go away.
I’ll be glad to be wrong, in many ways it’s the opposite of the Lackey deal. Chalk it up to my complete lack of attention to the AL, in that I remember that crazy 8+ WAR outlier year from 2009 but not the 5+ WAR that he averaged from 2010-2014.
His numbers took a nosedive last year, mostly due to a big drop in his defensive numbers that likely had a lot to do with a nagging injury. Offensively his numbers were great, even better than his two previous seasons. I’m a little surprised to see the defensive projections giving him so little credit after one season, but this could just be me getting confused by the dumb way fangraphs factors in defense these days. It's tough to tell if he's bounced back just from the spring, but if he was going to as awful as his numbers suggested last year we probably would have seen it.
One other possible reason the Cubs went after him is that he’s a very different type of hitter than most of the rest of the team. Just look at that strikeout to walk ratio. Or don’t, I can’t tell you what to do. How some fans get worked up about strikeouts is a little overblown, but I’m sure Ron Santo will be smiling somewhere if this helps to reduce the feeling that runners on third with less than two outs might as well put out a lawn chair.
| Player | Projection | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Def | BsR | WAR |
| Javier Baez | 2015 Stats | 80 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 2 | .289 | .325 | .408 | .315 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Javier Baez | ZiPS | 526 | 120 | 22 | 3 | 22 | 31 | 152 | 18 | 6 | .248 | .301 | .443 | .330 | -6 | *** | 2.3 |
| Javier Baez | PECOTA | 263 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 85 | 7 | 3 | .236 | .286 | .444 | .324 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 |
| Javier Baez | CAIRO | 495 | 111 | 24 | 1 | 19 | 29 | 153 | 15 | 7 | .242 | .291 | .420 | .310 | *** | *** | 2.1 |
| Javier Baez | Steamer | 325 | 75 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 19 | 91 | 8 | 4 | .252 | .302 | .457 | .325 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Javier Baez | Average | 402 | 91 | 18 | 2 | 17 | 23 | 120 | 12 | 5 | .245 | .295 | .441 | .322 | -2 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
Baez should get most of his starts here, though he should see plenty of time at 3b, SS, and CF too, provided he stops jamming fingers while needlessly sliding into first base. Maddon and the Cubs seem to be setting him up to be this team's new Ben Zobrist, though I don't think he'll have nearly as much opportunity to play as Zobrist did in Tampa. I think they'll still manage to get him into 3-4 games a week, but if he catches fire it's tough to see at whose expense the playing time will come. Maybe Fowler's the guy who sees the most PT eaten up, since everyone else the Cubs are committed long term. It's the kind of problem you love to have.
| Player | Projection | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Def | BsR | WAR |
| Tommy La Stella | 2015 Stats | 75 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | .269 | .324 | .403 | /317 | 0 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
| Tommy La Stella | ZiPS | 343 | 82 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 36 | 4 | 1 | .267 | .333 | .375 | .313 | -3 | *** | 1 |
| Tommy La Stella | PECOTA | 262 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 31 | 2 | 1 | .269 | .342 | .380 | .326 | -0.9 | -0.4 | 0.7 |
| Tommy La Stella | CAIRO | 347 | 80 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 42 | 4 | 1 | .259 | .332 | .361 | .309 | *** | *** | 1.1 |
| Tommy La Stella | Steamer | 181 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 19 | 2 | 1 | .277 | .343 | .380 | .318 | -0.9 | -0.4 | 0.3 |
| Tommy La Stella | Average | 283 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 32 | 3 | 1 | .268 | .338 | .374 | .317 | -1.6 | -0.4 | 0.8 |
La Stella is another great guy to have come off the bench, like Zobrist he’s a contact hitter but is also decent at getting on base. His options situation, as well as the memory of last year’s seemingly 6-month quad injury make me think he won’t spend as much time on the team as he probably should. With Javy on the DL the Cubs have an extra week or so to figure out of they’re going to cut bait on Sczcur, and it’s going to come down on whether they want a better defensive replacement or pinch hitter going forward. I thought it was La Stella all the way earlier, but now I’m not sure which way they are leaning.
Setting some playing time predictions at 2b, I’m going to go with 450 PAs for Zobrist, 200 for Baez, and 40 for La Stella. I’m also going to bump Zobrist’s defense up a bit, not to the full win+ he was providing pre-2015 but up to half a win or so. This would give a combined second base WAR of 3.5
Past positions
- Shortstop: 3.0*
- Third Base: 5.5
- First Base: 4.4
*I'm bumping this one up too, since I think the projection systems are far too conservative at how good Addison Hustle's defense is.
Comments
Wish I wasn’t at work, so I could write a post about what a fucking shitshow the Effectively Wild podcast’s Cubs preview was.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
It was more of a “how well is this org being run/how excited a D-list celebrity fan is” than any sort of season preview. I guess the Cubs going all the way is a forgone conclusion.
ceruleanQuote Reply
berselius,
”Still angry about Samardzija”
(dying laughing)
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
I don’t think that guy could name 5 players on the team.
berseliusQuote Reply
cerulean,
(dying laughing), and now the rest of baseball twitter is getting their panties in a bunch that anyone would complain about a free podcast
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
He was right about one thing—this team is packed with forgettable players with no personality, starting with their Manager-of-the-Year RV nut and continuing with Cy Young winning mustache pajama dude and Rookie-of-the-year teen heartthrob. They are so forgettable, I can’t know even remember their names.
ceruleanQuote Reply
berselius,
Attention costs something. Not even nothing is free.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Pablo Sandoval —————> bench
????
berseliusQuote Reply
Pablo Sandoval ———-> brunch
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
I found something pretty awesome and I wanted to share it with you guys here.
I’ve had DirecTV for years. For 4 TVs and the “Choice” package with HBO I’ve been paying $150+ per month.
You may have seen something in the news lately about Playstation Vue that is a live TV steaming service. Let me be the first to tell you – it’s awesome (granted that you have 20+ mbps internet DL speeds). No more paying per device/TV. For $35/month I can watch TV from all my devices that can stream Playstation Vue. That includes the PS3, PS4, Fire TV, Chromecast, etc. The regional channel package may differ by market, but in Indy I get Comcast Sports Net Chicago, BTN, ESPN, AMC, FX, Comedy Central, and more.
If you’re in Chicago, you will also get streaming for network channels like FOX, NBC, and ABC. Outside of Chicago (live me), I only get those channel On-demand. However, it’s worth it for me even if I have to buy the MLB.tv package.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
Can you watch different channels simultaneously (i.e. ESPN in living room and Comedy Central in bed room)?
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Wenningtons Gorilla Cock,
Yes. The only thing you can’t do is (apparently from what I’ve read) stream on two PS4s at the same time. But you can have one TV on a PS4, two TVs on with Chromecast and it should work (given you have a fast enough internet connection).
If I find there’s a problem streaming two at once because of internet speed, Comcast offers me 75 mbps for $80/month, so it still comes ahead by $70 in this TV+Internet scenario.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
That reminds me, I need to haggle down my DTV subscription
I only wish I could get 20+ Mbps out here, even if I lived in town and not in the boonies. I was dying laughing at one of our college students last summer complaining that he could *only* get 10+ when he was out here.
/yells at cloud
berseliusQuote Reply
I do love that extra innings comes with MLB.tv now
berseliusQuote Reply
I just got offered 1 gig internet service through CenturyLink for something like $120/mo, but that seems like overkill, even though I’m curious what it would be like. I’m currently getting 40mbps for around $60/mo and can upgrade to 100 for an extra $20/mo. I’m not sure even that’s worthwhile.
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
Have you tried Hulu? Has anybody? Can you watch current seasons on Hulu? I want to cut cable so bad but I really like the Americans and Better Call Saul. How can I watch those without watching them through DirecTv or cable? Anybody know?
MuckerQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
I’ve been dying to cut DirecTV loose for quite some time (though they’re probably going to tack $10 on my bill this month for having typed that). Is there any sort of recording capability with the new service? I live on the west coast and would never get to watch basketball if I couldn’t record it.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I just discovered they snuck some worthless $5 “HD Extra” package into my bill 😐
berseliusQuote Reply
I happen to live on the historical Lincoln Highway with river/highway on one side and railroad tracks on the other. My internet speeds reflect that: Comcast maxes out around 4Mbps, AT&T around 400Kbps. Genuinely awful. If I really want something fast, I tether to my phone.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Mucker,
uncle dave,
Here’s a good summation of the service compared to Sling TV:
http://www.cnet.com/news/playstation-vue-vs-sling-tv-streaming-live-tv-compared/
You get to record your DVR to the cloud so you can watch it on the go. Your DVR recordings will be good for 28 days before they expire.
Hulu’s selection is very limited beyond network shows. They’ve got a lot of Comedy Central shows like Workaholics, Review, Broad City, and South Park. I’m not too familiar with their other offerings. I don’t believe Hulu has AMC shows. The only other way to watch AMC as it airs is with cable or a streaming service like Vue/Sling TV.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
You can actually get Playstation Vue, Netflix, and Hulu Plus for $60/month (dying laughing).
Not to mention Amazon Prime includes Prime TV with HBO shows (not including GoT) for $100/year.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
just download them from a torrent site. that’s what…a friend of mine does and “he” has never had issues finding content.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
berselius,
Yeah, they signed me up for a free premium trial with the barest consent and then charged me $10 to remove it. I’m pretty sure about 40% of our GDP is now hidden fees and bullshit charges.
uncle daveQuote Reply
I pay $60 per month for Charter topping out at 4 MBPS, and I still get fed up and hog the data on my iPhone. You live in the Glorious Tomorrow.
umbraQuote Reply
A buddy of mine refers to this as “piss in your face” customer service, where they see how long you let them piss all over you until you complain. Then start it up again a week later. Telecom near-monoplies FTL
berseliusQuote Reply
basic cable, two set top boxes (one’s a DVR)
120Mb broadband (but with WiFi it’s 5 to 35Mb depending on which device and which room)
landline that can’t be opted out of and is barely used
~100/mo.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
cerulean,
There’s almost certainly backbone fiber cables buried along those railroad tracks. Stop being so lazy and get out the shovel, hedge clippers and duct tape.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
(dying laughing) what’s a torrent? Is that legal?
MuckerQuote Reply
It still has not sunk in that a week from today, I will be watching the Cubs in a baseball game that counts.
berseliusQuote Reply
A bunch of guys at ESPN made their predictions for the upcoming season. 100% had the Cubs making the playoffs. All but 4 (there were, like, 30 “analysts”) had them taking the Central.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
Last year 100% of them predicted the Nats would take the East.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
Funny you should say that because I did fail to mention they buried dark fiber just in front of the house eight fucking years ago. Businesses can connect to it for $1000/month. I’ve been saving up by getting into the excavation business and digging myself a deep hole (dying laughing).
ceruleanQuote Reply
Doomed. This team doesn’t have anyone who can carry it when shit gets real, like Mark Grace or Jeff Samardzija. The Cubs will be lucky to make the playoffs, but they won’t be able to beat the Giants with that greatest of Cubs pitchers since Greg Maddux.
ceruleanQuote Reply
So this Fangraphs article—am I too much of a homer to think that this trio of unfortunate events isn’t even close to “it all going wrong”? Let’s assume the Cubs get nothing from Bryant, Heyward, and Arrieta—a 10-WAR drop off at least—I think they still have a solid 90-win team (and a sense of urgency to pick up a top tier pitcher at the deadline).
It all going wrong is a charter plane crash.
ceruleanQuote Reply
The worst thing every is if the whole team looks tired the whole season.
berseliusQuote Reply
The schedule in the At-Bat app has the Cubs playing today in Anaheim. WTF? I assumed that it was opening day when I looked at it at the beginning of ST. I am guessing that was tentative and there isn’t actually a Spring Training game today.
ceruleanQuote Reply
cerulean,
It’s an exhibition, I’m guessing it’ll be full of MiLB guys.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
Yeah. It strikes me as strange, but I never pay attention to the end of ST, and three game series being the norm, I just stuck them together in my head. I often have to ask myself to stop making sense, because reality is so much senselessness.
ceruleanQuote Reply
What really sucks is a 10pm ET start tomorrow night. West coast games are the worst.
ceruleanQuote Reply
(dying laughing) so I come back and find that OV has turned on The Mountain Goats
GWQuote Reply
Interestingly, the projection systems love F7 in San Francisco. Even after that nightmare 2015.
GWQuote Reply
So… six posts coming tomorrow to wrap up this series, right?
GWQuote Reply
20 games at catcher for Schwarber this year: over/under?
GWQuote Reply
Waino isn’t looking very sharp today.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Wainwright looks hittable, and the Pirates’ announcers are already drinking the Cubs Haterade.
umbraQuote Reply
Liriano looks terrifying, however. 5 K’s thru 2.1 innings.
umbraQuote Reply
umbra,
Hitters just need to stop swinging. He hasn’t cracked 40% in the zone since 2013.
GWQuote Reply
Kris Bryant go boom
Suburban kidQuote Reply
cerulean,
I’ll be in California, so I’m not complaining (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
I’ll take the over
berseliusQuote Reply
We’ll just keep rolling it into the season. Timely content delivery is our discredited specialty
berseliusQuote Reply
New shit http://obstructedview.net/projecting-the-2016-cubs-outfield/
berseliusQuote Reply
I have nothing against mountain goats—I’m sure they are lovely animals, D-list celebs notwithstanding.
ceruleanQuote Reply