Projecting the 2012 Cubs: Ryan Dempster

In Projections by berselius84 Comments

We haven't looked at any of the pitcher projections yet, so we might as well start with the longest tenured starter on the squad. Last year, Dempster looked utterly awful in the first month of the season. He had some terrible BABIP and HR luck but was generally being hit hard. However, after his first 6-8 starts or so he settled down and pitched right in line with his projections going into the season. It wasn't enough to undo the awful first month but it's a glimmer of hope going forward. By fWAR he was worth 2.8 WAR, worth a little less than what he was paid. Of course, fWAR kind of stinks since FIP is more of a predictive stat rather than a descriptive one. rWAR only had his season at 0.9 WAR.

Dempster is on the last year of his contract after exercising his player option last October and hinted that he'd love to stay around. As far as I remember there has been utter silence on this topic from the Hall of Justice, but the Superfriends may be able to leverage his desire to stick around into a discount. Of course, a large portion of the reason he wants to stick around could be his daughter's health, and if so that would be kind of a dick move for Thoyer to use that against him.

What can we expect from next year? Here are Ryan Dempster's numbers from various projection systems.

Projection IP BB HBP SO HR ERA FIP
Steamer 189 69 6 164 20 3.93 3.87
Bill James 203 80 7 185 21 3.95 3.85
RotoChamp 200 79 6.33 188 22 4.01 3.87
Tango Marcel 183 69 6 164 20 4.18 3.90
ZiPS 174 67 6 153 21 4.24 4.11
CAIRO 200 76 7 184 22 3.99 3.88
PECOTA 186 65 6.33 153 19 3.92 3.87
Oliver 195 73 6.33 172 22 4.42 3.96
DavMarcel 183.3 71 6.33 165 18 4.03 3.78
Guru 167.7 65 6 145 19 4.19 4.05
Average 188.1 71.4 6.33 167.3 20.4 4.09 3.92

The FIP values are computed based only on BB, HBP, SO, and HR, and is rescaled to the league ERA based on the past two seasons. Last year was an incredibly pitcher-friendly year in the NL, and it will be interesting to see if that continues this season. Since only half the systems provided HBP data I just used the average of the systems that did provide that data. I'm also being sloppy and simply averaging numbers that have different denominators, but eh.

Based on this run environment, Dempster will provide 23.04 Runs Above Replacement, or 2.36 WAR. Dempster will be paid $14m next season (as well as $3m in deferred money that allowed the Cubs to sign the one-armed bandit, Xavier Nady. Let us never speak of this again). Given an estimate of $5m / win, the Cubs are overpaying Dempster by just over two million dollars. Of course, the Cubs made up that amount in spades earlier in the contract. That's just the way back-loading works.

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  1. Suburban kid

    Urk wrote:

    Hey SK, what’s the doc you’re watching?

    (dying laughing)
    There was no documentary. I just never liked sci fi and fantasy stuff. If everyone in the room wants to put on the LOTR DVD, I’m probably going to go find something non-fiction to watch, but probably just as geeky.

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  2. mb21

    Of course, the Cubs made up that amount in spades earlier in the contract. That’s just the way back-loading works.

    That’s just the way contracts work.

    Imaginary Player
    2012: 3.5 WAR
    2013: 3.0
    2014: 2.5
    2015: 2.0

    He’s paid $14.5 million annually.

    2012: $17.5 $WAR
    2013: 15.75 $WAR
    2014: 13.78 $WAR
    2015: 11.58 $WAR

    It’s a perfect contract yet in the final years he’s being paid more than he’s worth. That’s precisely because he was paid less in the first two years.

    I know you know this, but I thought I’d point it out anyway. (dying laughing)

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  3. Suburban kid

    Spring Training Hagiography Part 4,932,349,121 from BMiles

    There’s a lot to like about Darwin Barney.
    The 26-year-old Cubs second baseman plays the game the right way.

    This is important, because so many baseball players do it wrong.

    He’s usually at the right spot at the right time.

    Unlike most players, who usually fail to see the play coming and don’t know where to position themselves.

    He makes good decisions on the field.

    It was during a slow inning in Pittsburg when he realized he should probably move out of his parents house before things got too weird.

    The Cubs found themselves thin in the middle infield this winter. They traded DJ LeMahieu to the Colorado Rockies in the deal that brought third baseman Ian Stewart. They also lost a pair of prospects, Ryan Flaherty and Marwin Gonzalez, in the Rule 5 draft.

    That’s partly why the Cubs added several middle-infield types before spring training. Holdover Jeff Baker, who can back up at third base, first base and the outfield, also can play second base. The Cubs managed to keep Blake DeWitt as a nonroster man after outrighting him off the 40-man roster recently.
    Partly to make up for the losses of Flaherty, Gonzalez and LeMahieu, the Cubs also have several others in camp with some second-base experience: Adrian Cardenas, Alfredo Amezega, Edgar Gonzalez, Jonathan Mota, Bobby Scales and Matt Tolbert.

    But the Cubs probably won’t need any of those 8 players to play second base this year, seeing as they probably play the game the wrong way, are usually in the wrong spot at the wrong time, and make horrible decisions on the field.

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  4. mb21

    plays the game the right way.

    I would like someone to define the right way. Just one of these people who say it. Many do. Surely one has thought about it enough that they could provide a broad definition. I need that because I want to tear it to shreds.

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  5. Suburban kid

    I have not been reading the beat writers this spring, but this morning I saw that one and Gordo’s piece on Campana that called him the “belle of the ball” in the headline (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) and it forced a reaction.

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  6. mb21

    Berselius wrote:

    “plays the game the right way.” ———-> sucks but tries hard.

    I know that’s what it actually means, but I’d like someone who believes this shit to define it. I have no idea what they’d say. Apparently it’s what Bruce Miles said, which is just fucking retarded.

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  7. ACT

    @ Rice Cube:
    Oh, I don’t think HBP projections are anywhere near as accurate for one year as strikeouts or walks. But some pitchers clearly hit more batters than others.

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  8. mb21

    @ ACT:
    Are people comparing him to Dexter Fowler or something? Fowler’s BB% has remained the same, but it’s been considerably better than Barney’s. People expecting Barney to increase his walk rate are dreaming. They don’t understand why players are walked. I know everyone here knows because it’s obvious, but Bonds was walked more because the pitchers weren’t going to challenge him. They tried to get him out outside the zone, which led to lots of balls and walks.

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  9. Rice Cube

    @ mb21:
    I recall Mark McGwire almost never swung at a 3-0 pitch, and I don’t even remember the last time a pitcher decided to press his luck and challenge Bonds on 3-0. Usually by 3-0 Bonds was starting to take off that ginormous elbow/forearm sleeve thing he always wore.

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  10. ACT

    mb21 wrote:

    Are people comparing him to Dexter Fowler or something?

    No. I was just looking at BB% leaders and trying to dig up the best counterexample I could find (of someone who’s not an intimidating hitter who walks a lot).

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  11. mb21

    By the way, all projections posted here from this point forward will be as simple as possible.

    Does he play the game the right way?

    If yes, we project him to be worth 6 WAR. If no, we project 0 WAR.

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  12. mb21

    @ Rice Cube:
    Not really. There’s so much to consider about whether or not he plays the game the right way. Is he in the right position? We’ll have to look at video for hundreds of plays to determine this. Does he make good decisions? We’ll have to watch every player every game to determine this one. It will take thousands of hours. Sounds like a simple yes/no, but it’s far from that. (dying laughing)

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  13. ACT

    @ mb21:
    Nope. And Fowler’s a unique beast. He has no power and strikes out a lot, and lives off his walk rate and insanely high BABIP.

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  14. Mucker

    Rice Cube wrote:

    If any PS3-folks are getting “The Show” today, could you let me know how it plays? I am unfortunately stuck with the 2k series. Damn exclusivity.

    Why do you play 2k? Do you have a PS3? The Show is the best sports game out there. Better than Madden, 1,000 times better than 2k. The only sports game that I think comes close is FIFA. The Show is so good it’s worth buying a PS3 just for that game IMHO.

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  15. Aisle424

    mb21 wrote:

    Not really. There’s so much to consider about whether or not he plays the game the right way.

    False.

    Is he white?
    Yes ——> plays game the right way
    No
    V
    V
    Does he make a lot of money?
    No ———> plays the game the right way
    Yes ——–> clubhouse cancer

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  16. Aisle424

    We may have to add the question “Is he having fun out there?” into that matrix, but it’s still pretty simple.

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  17. mb21

    @ Aisle424:
    Great point. I’m glad I didn’t get started on this elaborate system. After a year I’d have thought of the player’s whiteness and it would have answered the question itself.

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  18. Mish

    I have to pass on purchasing this year’s “The Show” as I just blew a whole lot of money on the Game of Thrones Blu Ray and 4 seasons of the Simpsons that complete Seasons 1-9 for me.

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  19. Mucker

    Rice Cube wrote:

    @ Mucker:
    I do not have a PS3. I will have to go many nights without dinner before I can afford one. And I am painfully aware that 2k sucks, but bad baseball > no baseball…

    I see. Have you ever played the Show? Not only is the gameplay far and away better than 2k, but the Road to the Show mode is pure awesome. If you are not in love with your Xbox, maybe see about a trade? PS3 to me is the better value because it’s also a Blu-Ray player.

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  20. Rice Cube

    @ Mucker:
    I like my Xbox for the exclusive games like Halo and GOW, but I have played the Show a few times while at the demo station at Best Buy and I really enjoy it. I think I’ll get a PS3 (or whatever) in a year or so and play The Show 2014 (hopefully they don’t mess it up)

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  21. Mucker

    @ Rice Cube:
    Yeah I hear ya. I’ve had PS3 since launch but none of my friends have a PS3 so I got an Xbox for my main gaming console and for online play for GoW and CoD and shit like that and use the PS3 for the blu-ray and the Show.

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  22. josh

    I wish they’d put out more sports games for PC. All this PC power, and I can’t make the Cubs win. Now I know how Superman felt when his dad died.

    I think the people saying “Playing the right way” would define it as 1) hustles even on routine outs, 2) doesn’t intentionally try to hurt anyone, but sticks up for his team mates when required (i.e., plunks a guy, or slides hard on a double play), 3) no show-boating in any way.

    It’s hard, damn hard, though, not to read racism into though, right? Like everything Newt Gingrich says. The automatic algebra your mind does works out just too perfectly.

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  23. GBTS

    mb21 wrote:

    There’s so much to consider about whether or not he plays the game the right way. Is he in the right position? We’ll have to look at video for hundreds of plays to determine this.

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

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  24. Mercurial Outfielder

    “Playing the right way” just means the writer likes the guy but can find no objective measure that indicates the player is anything but average or worse, so the writer then resorts to cliches and nebulous evaluative language.

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  25. Rice Cube

    We need to start a campaign to take back the term “playing the right way”. It should mean “being good at baseball”. If you’re not good at baseball, you’re definitely not playing the right way.

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  26. Mucker

    @ Mish:
    Yeah that commercial’s great. Kinda sad though seeing as that’s the only way we’ll be celebrating a Cubs World Series win. (dying laughing)

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  27. Mish

    @ Mucker:
    I love the clear shots of Weiner Circle and Sluggers amongst other things. Probably not too different from how it’d go (with the exception that it will never happen). (dying laughing)

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  28. WaLi

    @ josh:
    Did you know the writer considers himself a doctor? Have a problem? Just ask Dr. Dan! He’ll tell you what you don’t and won’t achieve.

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