Somehow Jeff Samardzija has more upside than Randy Wells, despite the fact that Wells posted back to back 3 WAR seasons in 2009-2010 before last year's injury rattled season. Wells hit the DL the same day as Andrew Cashner last April, and when he came back in June he clearly wasn't the same pitcher. The Cubs had great need of him though, as they had been piling up outings from sub-replacement level starters like James Russell and Doug Davis. He was missing several MPH off of his pitches and didn't seem to start picking it up again until late in the year. Maybe something is different, I'm not sure, but everything with Wells seems to scream "came back too soon" add in the rep he had for partying too much in 2010 and he's largely been underappreciated and forgotten since the beginning of last season. Even last year, coming off his second solid season (in everything but ERA) there was rumbling of him moving to the pen, though a decent amount of that chatter may have been media driven, and it looks like it will happen this year. At least for a little while.
Sveum announced that Volstad had won the last starter spot yesterday while talking with Jim Bowden, then later backtracked and said the job was still open. Still, the writing is on the wall for Wells. He was brough in mid-inning in yesterday's game, and only went 1 2/3, which also screams bullpen.
Here are his projections:
| Projection | IP | BB | HBP | SO | HR | ERA | FIP |
| Steamer | 149 | 49 | 4 | 94 | 17 | 4.6 | 4.33 |
| Bill James | 174 | 59 | 5 | 126 | 20 | 4.24 | 4.19 |
| RotoChamp | 160 | 53 | 3.83 | 105 | 22 | 4.28 | 4.58 |
| Tango Marcel | 147 | 47 | 4 | 102 | 17 | 4.16 | 4.20 |
| ZiPS | 156 | 51 | 4 | 101 | 20 | 4.5 | 4.47 |
| CAIRO | 119 | 39 | 3 | 81 | 15 | 4.3 | 4.38 |
| PECOTA | 144 | 43 | 3.83 | 86 | 17 | 4.34 | 4.36 |
| Oliver | 175 | 56 | 3.83 | 116 | 22 | 4.55 | 4.38 |
| DavMarcel | 126.7 | 43 | 3.83 | 94 | 14 | 4.36 | 4.10 |
| Guru | 117 | 38 | 3 | 82 | 14 | 4.44 | 4.25 |
| Average | 146.77 | 47.8 | 3.83 | 98.7 | 17.8 | 4.38 | 4.33 |
Over this inning amount (and being used as a starter), Wells would be worth 10.66 RAR, or 1.09 WAR. For the reasons mentioned above there are a lot of reasons to be higher on Wells than this 1 WAR prediction. Certainly more reasons than there are for Jeff Samardzija. He'll probably float around as the long reliever for the first few weeks, though if he ends up stuck in the pen longer term I wouldn't be surprised to see him usurp Kerry Wood's role as the primary setup man.
There was some jumping to conclusions-y chatter on the twitters yesterday about the rotation decision meaning that the Cubs might trade Wells. I'm all for trading anyone on this team that can get something back, but moving Wells right now would be dumping him at his lowest value. If we're talking about developing long-term assets, leave Wells in the rotation, hope that he's closer to the 3 WAR pitcher he was in 2009 and 2010, and trade him for some better prospect and let Samardzija and fallback Rodrigo Lopez take his spot at that point.
Previous pitcher projections
- Matt Garza: 3.02 WAR
- Ryan Dempster: 2.36 WAR
- Paul Maholm: 1.71 WAR
- Chris Volstad: 1.0 WAR
- Jeff Samardzija: -0.42 WAR / who the hell knows
Comments
GASP http://www.avclub.com/articles/clerks-the-animated-series-could-return-in-2013,71415/
BerseliusQuote Reply
The F7 projection still cracks me up. (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
There’s a Game of Thrones S2 preview today on HBO at 7:30 CT. It’s already online but I’m gonna wait to watch it on TV.
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Is it the same one GRRM put up on his blog?
BerseliusQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
I like how it’s minor league guy and not minor leaguer. I think we knew it was a guy. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Not sure but if it was called “You win or you die” then yes. NBC Chicago actually played it last night.
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
So is it still called Game of Thrones even though S2 is actually going to start into the second book? Or are they doing something different with it?
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Is that BJ Upton in disguise?
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I think they missed an opportunity to use “I Don’t Know” on third.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
Yes they are just going with Game of Thrones. The phrase “a Clash of Kings” hasn’t even been mentioned in the promos.
The latter books, starting with #3, wont make a simple book to season translation. They’ve already said book 3 will span two seasons, and books #4 and #5 cover the same time span. As the creators said in a recent interview, it’s their interpretation of the epic as a whole, so they won’t bind themselves in any way.
MishQuote Reply
I wasn’t totally clear on how I would be allowed to modify a previous UnOV, so I added a link in the comments to a new contest we’re doing in case any of you are interested in winning a Billy Williams bobblehead doll. Thanks for letting me share. The other contest is also still open until the day before Opening Day but I have a sneaky suspicion it’s going to a raffle and I’ll probably have to use a random number generator to choose the winner (dying laughing)
/cool story bro
http://obstructedview.net/unobstructed-views/a-contest-for-folks-who-like-scrap-and-heart.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It seems you guy can’t edit posts once you’ve published them. I didn’t know that until GBTS mentioned it the other day. I’ll see what I can do about that. If it means you guys have access to editing other posts than your own then there’s nothing we can do of course.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
It’s probably just something we’ll have to e-mail you about if there’s a major edit. Not a big deal.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
I like the Game of Thrones title better than the one used for the book series, which is kind of lame (song of ice and fire)
BerseliusQuote Reply
Koyie Hill. —-> released
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I hope he didn’t get a hit in his last at-bat. I’m afraid if he did the Cubs would sign him and make him their starting catcher.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
The Cubs should have him throw off a mound and audition him for the starting rotation.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I am interested to see if his cutter and split-finger fastball developed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
They all look the same to you, eh Josh?
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
True, Song of Fire and Ice is lame-o. Really, Clash of Kings isn’t that great either. Sounds a little too Tolkeiny. I think sticking with Game of Thrones is probably a good idea.
joshQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Granted, the picture quality isn’t that great, but he looks like could be BJ/Justin’s other brother.
joshQuote Reply
Arizona looks as crappy as it does in Chicago right now.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I haven’t seen the Cubs on TV much this spring but Castro looks bigger.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Racist
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Sonnanstine —> free agent
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Cubs are broadcasting from the Matrix today.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Since mad men is back tonight
http://theoatmeal.com/comics/wwddd
BerseliusQuote Reply
Well…that whole tagging out on a deep flyout to center must be something they’re working on this spring. Surprised it came with Soto given his groin injuries.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Hell of a throw by Castro.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/10-best-things-being-cubs-fan-194648793.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Hey, Reggie Golden is in the game
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I think that was Edgar Gonzalez. Gameday is broken.
Soriano —> yard
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yeah, definitely broken. Cubs only up 5-2, Gameday says Beef Castle hit a homer but I’m pretty sure he grounded out.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Ah, there’s the daily TOOTBLAN.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
If Cub fans hadn’t been thoroughly poisoned against him by Brenly and the beat guys, I think a lot of them would be pretty enthused about Soriano’s spring.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Holy crap this team BLOWS on the basebpaths.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
So, except for pitching, baserunning, defense and offense, there’s reason to have hope for this club.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I’d love to see Soriano have a big comeback year, though. He’s so fun to watch when he’s hitting.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
That was their first major mistake of the day (always gotta have one). The other baserunning situations were actually pretty nice to see, where Soto took second on a deep flyout and Edgar Gonzalez took advantage of a couple errors to score a run.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Never mind (dying laughing)
Nice hustle but that was kind of dumb. He was out by like 10 feet if the tag had been properly made initially, but was out anyway. Silly Edgar.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Go to hell, Carolina!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This UNC-KU game is fantastic.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20278575&c_id=mlb
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
His batting mechanics don’t look noticeably different, but he’s got to have put on 15 or so pounds in the offseason, especially in his legs. If his legs are healthy, that could mean good things. Although healthy limbs won’t stop him from swinging at breaking balls low and away, but…
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
He supposedly has a lower leg kick.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
It would be cool if we could get a hold of a side-by-side gif. I’ve been looking to no avail.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Just noticed Amezaga is batting nearly .380 this spring and Castro is at about .290. Dale Sveum probably thinks he figured it out. Made some adjustments. Deserves to start over Castro.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Just open the video I posted in one window and put a second window right next to it with a home run swing (side view) from 2009 or so.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’ll look for more, but here’s Soriano in September 2011:
And here he is today:
Hard to tell with the different camera angles, but like I said, I’ll keep looking.
mb21Quote Reply
This is from the end of 2010 and he has a lower leg kick than he did last year or this spring: http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=12557965&c_id=mlb
mb21Quote Reply
This is the one from 2010:
I don’t buy there’s a difference between his leg kick. It’s certainly not any different than it was in 2010.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
It may vary in emphasis but the leg kick is definitely there, and the lift is quite pronounced whether he changed something or not. Maybe the difference is how he transfers his weight and whether he plants his leg in a consistent spot, but I haven’t seen enough to gauge that.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I hope Sori bounces back this year too. I’d love to see him crack 35-40 homeruns this season. I love it when he gets on those runs.
joshQuote Reply
I don’t see a big difference in the kick. Maybe they’re trying to shorten the stride of the kick? We’d never be able to see that in camera, though.
Soriano is definitely bulkier this year, though.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/8636/minor-leaguers-tag-dempster-for-six
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
NOT AN ACE
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Unlike the UW-Syracuse game. I think all the people who said that was a great game must not have been watching it.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
From what little I’ve seen, it looks like he’s still running like he’s 15 years older.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
What do you have against Abe Frohman?
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
No, that dude is booing Soriano for running slowly. I love Abe!
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Nerds…your opinions?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atCfTRMyjGU
I think this movie is going to get blown out of the water by the next Batman movie. If the release date is correct they are releasing almost concurrently.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
[spoiler title=”Spider-Man crap”]I like that they have the Lizard as the villain and it looks like he’s got to make his own webshooters. I think the girl is supposed to be Gwen Stacy and they’re probably going to stick to the origin story.[/spoiler]
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
RC, I think Spiderman looks great. Growing up, I was more a Spiderman guy so I like these trailers.
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I liked that trailer. I just feel like they only have less than three weeks to make their shitload of money before Dark Knight Rises or else that’s it for the reboot. By that time the buzz re: Avengers should be dying down so I think it should do okay, but once Batman comes around, 95% of the theater-going market will be lost.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I see they’re trying to add in some daddy issues. That seems to be a popular trend in superheroes these days.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Is that not Killer Croc? Or… was that DC? Oh hell, I can’t keep them straight.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Killer Croc is a Batman villain, and since there’s no amalgam universe movie yet, they can’t use Killer Croc in a Spidey movie. It’d be pretty interesting though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mish:
But you grew up and became Batman.
mb21Quote Reply
@ josh:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I don’t see a difference either. It’s like I wrote the other day, when players are doing well there are all kinds of excuses for why they are. Jeff Samardzija hasn’t walked anyone so he’s a new pitcher.
By the way, I looked this morning and if you take Samardzija’s expected season stats over 14 innings, 2 standard deviations away from the expected 6 walks is 0.7. The big difference is that it would be considerably more strikeouts than he currently has and few hits allowed too. If we factored in spring training lineups we would expect him to do slightly better at which point I’d guess 2 standard deviations would be about .4 walks.
There is no evidence at this point that F7 is any different a pitcher than he was last season or the year before that. None. It’s all wishful thinking.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I ….uh…. I’m going to have to plead ignorance here. I don’t know shit about Spiderman.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
[spoiler title=”knowledge lies within”]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spider-man[/spoiler]
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
The Sveumeister disagrees.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Meh. I think I’ll play video games instead.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I’m in danger of killing whatever joke was being made, but that villain is Mysterio and I don’t think I’ve ever seen him referred to as related to Peter Parker in any way. Mysterio was part of the Sinister Six which was a group composed of Spidey’s most formidable enemies (including Dr. Octopus) but there’s really no way in hell they can make him look anything other than stupid in a live action movie. I mean, in the first movie they turned the Green Goblin into a Power Ranger.
Anyway…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Well, there was some scuttlebutt at the beginning of ST that Jaramillo was trying to implement some mechanical changes with Soriano’s swing to try and speed up Sori’s mechanics.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
On Soriano, Smardz, and Jackson–
I’ll probably get some shit for this, but that’s OK. It seems to me that the decision on all three of these guys is exactly the same and comes from the planning timeline of the Cubs’ brass. If the Cubs were to play their very best ML ready players right now, with no regard to contracts, arbitration, etc. how many games would they win at most? My guess is 74. If they keep Soriano, put F7 in the rotation, leave Jackson in the minors til June (Rizzo too), how many do they win, at most? My guess is 68-70. Play your best guys and you finish, maybe, one spot higher in the NL central and 3 spots lower in next year’s draft. Is it worth it?
So I’m absolutely fine with playing craps on all these guys. If Smardz has miraculously turned a corner, great! If not, as said before, it probably only costs us a win or two. Yes, Wells and Volstad are better, but I don’t think there is much doubt in what they can do. The scouts say F7 might be different this year. Fine. See. You really lose nothing.
Jackson and Rizzo–I’d leave them in Iowa until after the deadline that gives us the extra year of arb-free control. Let’s keep these guys as long as possible as cost effectively as possible. Is this small market in approach? Yes, but the Rays win cheap because of that approach, and that may save us the money we need to sign 4 major FAs in 3 years instead of 2 FAs. It’s OK to act small market when you’re going nowhere fast.
Soriano–sure he’s past his prime, but his steaks are some of the most exciting I’ve ever seen. They also tend to come early in the year. Say he looks good for 2 mo early instead of 3 weeks. Maybe Thoyer can ship him off for something like they did Zambrano. Right now, they get nothing or they get sunk cost. But Soriano isn’t Vernon Wells, Soriano actually produces something. He has a good attitude. If he was blocking someone that could do better and make a difference, then he could be cut or traded with $17.8 million for 3 low-A roster fillers. But he’s only blocking guys we want to keep longer anyway, or James Adduci.
I think the context for all these decisions and moves/non-moves is to look at the Cubs in 2014-15, not 2012 or 2013. We’ve been dealt a 3, a 6, a 7, and a K. Three other K’s are showing. Probably we’ll draw a 4 or an 8 or something equally useless. At best, we get a pair of 7s. That pair can be made from unexpected production out of Smardz or expected production out of Jackson. I say let’s save the money for another round.
SkipVBQuote Reply
SkipVB wrote:
He does grill some delicious steaks.
joshQuote Reply
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I defer to your knowledge.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
(dying laughing)
Mmm. Churrasco.
Guess I wasn’t paying attention to the little red dots.
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
yeah, sorry, maybe I shoulda put that in an UnOV, but who-the-hell reads those unless Rice Cube puts a contest there?
Too bad you missed it though, because you could have inherited some steaks. Instead, Josh got them.
(dying laughing)
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
If Thoyer ever intends to be the kind of FO that pushes it’s managers to lean toward the numbers, then the situation could just be that this season is a loss, so they’re encouraging Sveum to get creative. Or this is the first lesson in a Kung-Fu, Master/Grasshopper relationship between Sveum and Thoyer.
“What did you learn, young Grasshopper.”
“When I put my hand near the Samardzija, it feels like burning!”
“Pain is the beginning of knowledge, Grasshopper.”
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
My last boss was like this, but I had considerably more job security than a ML manager, and so did he.
SkipVBQuote Reply
josh wrote:
I think this might be a fun rendering on your blog with the Hope Monster.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, I need to do a new comic. I think I’m just getting burned out on Spring Training. Almost over!
I’m also trying to think of something to be hopeful about.
joshQuote Reply
Yeah, all right, I’ll post something tomorrow.
Helluva catch by Joe Mather today.
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
((dying laughing))
UrkQuote Reply
ack- I accidentally posted twice while trying to express just how funny Josh’s Grasshopper meme was. Now it won’t let me delete the second comment until I write something. Ergo you’ve just wasted like 2.4 seconds of your life reading this. Sorry!
UrkQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
“We don’t have [any] guys…”
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Urk:
More like 9 seconds. Me no read fast.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah it’s a tough timing for Spider-Man, but its got a pretty big enough fanbase on its own, and its the summer movie season anyways. If it’s good, I think it should be fine. I don’t have much to complain about in the trailer; I like that they go away from MJ and that they focus on Peter’s parents. It doesn’t look to have the overly comic-booky humor and sentimentality of the last SM movies, which I think is a plus (though it did generally work for SM2).
MishQuote Reply
Morning everyone!
Yesterday was the fist day i have watched the Cubs all year. Castro is big
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Ryno, in case you’re browsing but not participating I picked up some Iron Thistle this weekend. Great stuff, thanks for the rec however long ago that was.
BerseliusQuote Reply
bubblesdachimp wrote:
There’s a joke in here somewhere
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
Most of those decisions at least make sense. Bryan LaHair is better than Rizzo, the Cubs can add a 7th year of service time by keeping Brett Jackson in the minor leagues, and Soriano isn’t tradeable. The Cubs made informed decisions here. The F7 decision is still unexplainable in my opinion.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
No joke. Just tthink the kid gets bigger every time i see him
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I’m holding off on any opinions of whether there’s a joke in there until we know more. Either way, the burden is on the state to definitively show there is indeed a joke in there.
GBTSQuote Reply
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/03/23/chipper-swag-and-substance-greatest-brave-of-atl-era/?cp=18#comment-1522235
I would totally trade Byrd to Atl and pick up all salary to get a good arm…
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/projections/projecting-the-2012-cubs-backups.html
mb21Quote Reply