We move to the last member of the Cubs pitching staff who has a rotation spot locked down. As we all know, the should-have-been-rebuilding Cubs swapped three baseball players (and Sam Fuld) to the Rays at the beginning of last season for the getting-expensive Matt Garza. Garza went on to have a much better year than anyone expected, completely changing his pitch mix to generate more ground balls and quiet the worries that too many of his pitches would end up on Waveland. Through the first few months of the season, Garza was posting Marmol-esque strikeout rates, and ended the season striking out just a hair under a batter per inning. Unfortunately despite those crazy early season strikeout rates the opposing batters were hitting them where the Cubs weren't, or at least given the Cubs woeful defense, where they should have been. His BABIP numbers normalized as the year went on and ended at .306. I'm sure all of you want me to skip over all this stuff and list the most important stat, which is wins. Garza won only 10 wins last year, which means he's Not An Ace, even though he and Ryan Dempster tied at 10 wins. I guess they're both third starters. Garza and the Cubs settled at $9.5m before the arb hearing, probably because Garza knew that Thoyer was going to throw that win total in his agent's face. At least I think that's how it would have gone.
Here are Garza's projections for 2012:
| Projection | IP | BB | HBP | SO | HR | ERA | FIP |
| Steamer | 197 | 66 | 6 | 177 | 22 | 3.74 | 3.79 |
| Bill James | 214 | 69 | 8 | 185 | 22 | 3.7 | 3.73 |
| RotoChamp | 205 | 66 | 6 | 186 | 19 | 3.25 | 3.48 |
| Tango Marcel | 179 | 58 | 5 | 162 | 17 | 3.62 | 3.52 |
| ZiPS | 194.33 | 64 | 6 | 181 | 19 | 3.52 | 3.53 |
| CAIRO | 178 | 64 | 6 | 177 | 21 | 3.66 | 3.77 |
| PECOTA | 201.67 | 61 | 6 | 157 | 21 | 3.77 | 3.83 |
| Oliver | 200 | 65 | 6 | 176 | 21 | 3.78 | 3.67 |
| DavMarcel | 187 | 56 | 6 | 163 | 19 | 3.79 | 3.61 |
| Guru | 173.67 | 57 | 5 | 155 | 18 | 3.85 | 3.67 |
| Average | 192.97 | 62.6 | 6 | 171.9 | 19.9 | 3.67 | 3.67 |
The projection systems like Garza to both pitch well and stay healthy. Based on these averages, Garza is slated to provide 29.43 runs above replacement, or 3.02 WAR. At a valuation of $5m per win, the Cubs are getting $5.5m of surplus value from Garza.
The Cubs have Garza under control for one more year, his final arbitration year. There have been rumblings that they might discuss an extension with Garza, but I think Thoyer will keep him around. The new FA compensation rules kick in next offseason, and it's an easy bet that Garza will make more than the compensation threshold in free agency. Under the new CBA a team that trades for a player with an expiring contract midseason can't get the compensation picks, so if he's traded it will be this year. As Garza gets more and more expensive it will get harder and harder to pry away a player of equal value. I think those compensation picks will be much more than the Cubs will likely be able to get, though Thoyer will surely shop him around anyway in case some team catches a case of Dan Snyder.
Previous pitcher projections
- Ryan Dempster – 2.36 WAR
- Paul Maholm – 1.71 WAR
Comments
Where all the fielders should have been except Barney who is always where he should be.
mb21Quote Reply
I don’t believe this projection. There is no way he’s giving up 19.9 home runs. I’m dismissing them entirely because of that.
mb21Quote Reply
I remember reading somewhere that Marmol got better because he altered his pitch usage during starts (IIRC throwing more sliders). I’m not sure what adjustments the rest of the league has made and how that’ll affect him, or how you can statistically track such data.
Still, It’s heartening to hear that he projects so well in 2012.
PezcoreQuote Reply
Aaron Kurcz (A-ball pitcher) ———-> Red Sox, presumably the Theo Comp
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Pretty good numbers so far (2010 11th round pick): http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=kurcz-001aar
139 K, 109.2 IP, 45 BB
mb21Quote Reply
RotoChamp is a huge outlier here. They probably made Garza look more favorable by at least a few points
They predict a 3.25 ERA, 205 IP, and 188 Strikeouts. If he has that season, he’ll be a bargain at 14 Million a year.
The average prediction is 171 Strikeouts, 192 IP and 3.67 ERA.
/stillbitterhewaswrongaboutGarza
PezcoreQuote Reply
So, now both Wood and Marmol have ERA’s over 15.
ACTQuote Reply
The South Bend Silver Hawks owner just announced on twitter that they renewed their affiliation with the DBacks
BerseliusQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Wonder if they used the Cubs as leverage in some way.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
That reply clearly isn’t at masturbation aficionado Velveeta Bloodfucker.
GBTSQuote Reply
ACT wrote:
I knew we should have jettisoned Marmol while he had value. He’s gonna play like rotten cursed goat shit again, isn’t he?
Precisely the reason a Garza extension makes me so nervous. It’s a risk… is the reward for a player not part of the long-term plans worth it?
PezcoreQuote Reply
In the interest of March Madness, who else picked VCU over Wichita State in a ‘Shocker’? Sounds like such an easy pick
PezcoreQuote Reply
@ Pezcore:
I picked Wichita St. because VCU was the consensus easy pick. They’re the next Gonzaga.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I guess you’ll get your revenge when VCU starts getting 4 and 5 seeds and starts losing when they’re favored. I don’t think they’ll be that good. They come from a tougher conference (remember, the CAA has produced two final four teams in the last five years) and VCU never quite dominated the CAA like the Zags did the WCC. It’s difficult to remember that the WCC was low-major before Gonzaga’s rise in the mid-90s.
Speaking of Zags (of which I am a huge fan), they obliterated West Virginia recently. Looked at the game score, that was ridiculous.
PezcoreQuote Reply
Dammit UConn…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I’m with GBTS. Velveeta Bloodfucker’s handle is pinkporkponk, not dangerous raincoat.
joshQuote Reply
I guess best shape of his life didn’t include warmups?
joshQuote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvYP_d2S1Pg
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Pezcore:
I did. Though with so many players who weren’t on the team last year, I wondered why afterward. Guess I know now. But it was dumb luck. As is any other correct pick on my part.
SkipVBQuote Reply
MB, I have a 30Mbps internet service but because of WiFi and lots of interference in my house I only get the equivalent of about 8Mbps. If I didn’t use WiFi I’d get around 20Mbps.
I just know that every time I’ve had an increase in access speed, going back to 56K dialup and earlier, I’ve been underwhelmed by the improved user experience. I know it has improved, but until all web interactions are instantaneous, or sub one second like changing channels on a TV, it will still seem slow.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
At 1 Gbps things should be instantaneous.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
But not only is your internet speed changing, the content is too. So unless you are far ahead of the curve, you aren’t going to notice much.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
This is true
Open another lane on a highway and it too will soon be full.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Is that what Google will be delivering to your house? Nice.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-6XBbqoGRk
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UvlTMZRfT4
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
That was amazing.
joshQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
It will be available in KC and then presumably they will continue across the country. So no, it won’t be available in my house, but I’m still excited to try it when its done in KC.
mb21Quote Reply
Creeper looks like Bill Cosby
(dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
josh wrote:
I don’t even hear the real lyrics if I ever hear the song being played somewhere, I default to the literal ones.
“It’s a big freakin’ watch!”
Aisle424Quote Reply
I followed ST closely in past years because when there’s a chance you are going to contend to the end, you don’t want to miss any of it.
When you expect a losing season, it doesn’t matter so much if you miss a bunch of it.
Also, the Pope shits in the woods.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
face^palm
http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/2797.html
BerseliusQuote Reply