Since Jeff Samardzija is now a "near-lock" to make the rotation, per Dale Sveum. Let's take a look at his projections for 2012. Just about everyone projected him as a reliever, though a few of them had him making 1-3 starts. It's enough that I'm not going to worry about trying to split all of those numbers out. Here's his projection as a reliever and roughly as the third-guy in the bullpen behind Marmol and Wood.
| Projection | IP | BB | HBP | SO | HR | ERA | FIP |
| Steamer | 82 | 44 | 4 | 75 | 9 | 4 | 4.39 |
| Bill James | 87 | 51 | 3 | 71 | 10 | 4.66 | 4.76 |
| RotoChamp | 75 | 45 | 2 | 70 | 6 | 4.44 | 4.09 |
| Tango Marcel | 72 | 35 | 3 | 62 | 7 | 4 | 4.17 |
| ZiPS | 78.66 | 46 | 5 | 68 | 8 | 4.12 | 4.58 |
| CAIRO | 57 | 33 | 3 | 52 | 5 | 4.04 | 4.25 |
| PECOTA | 65.33 | 32 | 3.33 | 41 | 8 | 4.95 | 5.00 |
| Oliver | 50 | 28 | 3.33 | 42 | 5 | 4.76 | 4.54 |
| DavMarcel | 70 | 45 | 3.33 | 66 | 7 | 4.65 | 4.53 |
| Guru | 73 | 37 | 4 | 68 | 7 | 4.25 | 4.11 |
| Average | 71 | 39.6 | 3.33 | 61.5 | 7.2 | 4.39 | 4.44 |
That 4.44 FIP would look nice for a starter, but for a reliever in a run environment similar to what we've seen in the NL over the past two years, not so much. In fact, the replacement level FIP for a reliever based on the past two seasons is around 4.10 (it was a great year for pitchers). With this replacement level Samardzija is expected to be worth -2.9 RAR, which is bad for -0.42 WAR (with a leverage index of 1.4).
What about Samardzija as a starter? Using the ~25% rule of thumb, Samardzija would have a 5.55 FIP as a starter, good for around -21 RAR over, say, 120 innings, or -2.0 WAR, though if he pitches that badly there's no way he starts that many innings. So pardon me if this is my reaction.
Now that that's out of the way, let's play a game of point-counterpoint. Obviously Theo and Hoyer can read Fangraphs/Bloomberg/whatever as well as we can, so there must be some reasons why this might happen.
- Samardzija is a different pitcher than he was the previous six years in the Cubs organization
It's possible that he is, but just look at his peripherals from last year. .253 BABIP, 5.3% HR/FB, 75% LOB. Someone can be both lucky AND good, but given the track record I don't think it's so likely. I'm also skeptical that he picked up anything new under the tutelage of the mightly Mark Riggins. He did try to take a trick from Ryan Dempster and add a cutter to his repertoire while he was still starting in 2010 to some success in the minors, but that success didn't seem to return with him to the bigs. If Jeff Samardzija had shown such a big improvement in the second half of last year, why trade for two starters when moving Z and the relatively valuable Sean Marshall? There are plenty of other places that the Cubs could shore up at the big league level, not to mention trying to grab a prospect or two instead.
- Hey, it worked for Ryan Dempster
Apples, meet oranges. Ryan Dempster was a successful MLB pitcher in his past, and was bullpened in the first place while coming back from Tommy John surgery. Not to mention that for every Ryan Dempster who goes from relief to starting and succeeds, there's a dozen James Russells. Not to mention that Samardzija has been given chances to convert back to starting and has fared miserably, both in the upper minors and at the MLB level.
-
The Cubs are using this to turn a short-term asset into a long-term asset
Shockingly, the Cubs should have Jeff Samardzija under team control for three more seasons (his arb years) after 2012, as he only has two years of service time. If they turn him into a starter and he sticks, he'll be more valuable. Though I think most other teams will be able to look at his six seasons as a shitty pitcher and not want to give much back for him.
- The Cubs have nothing to lose and everything to gain by doing this
That would be true if the choice was Samardzija vs the likes of Ramon Ortiz, Rodrigo Lopez, or James Russell for a rotation spot. However, Randy Wells pitched well in his first two years before last years injury-lost season, and Volstad and Wood are no slouches either. They're not all-stars, but they're not players to toss aside.Of those three, only Wood has reasonable options to use (and has pretty much punched his ticket to Iowa anyway). As far as Wells or Volstad goes they have to be put on waivers to be optioned to the minors, and neither of them will make it through, which means bullpen time. Wells pitched out of the pen in 07 and 08 but has been a starter ever since. Given how everyone (at least, the media) seems to have forgotten about his 09-10 seasons and the fact that Volstad was in such a prominent trade signs point to Wells heading to the pen, which could affect his stuff and value going forward.
On the macro-level if Samardzija stinks, the Cubs will be that much closer to the second pick in the draft (it's going to be tough to get past Houston on that one). They're not contending for anything this season, so along those lines it's fine with me. But I'd rather it was the right decision resulting from the right process.
All and all I don't even know what to project. But I feel pretty confident that Jeff Samardzija, starting pitcher, will yet again not be a very successful experiment.
Previous pitcher projections
- Matt Garza: 3.02 WAR
- Ryan Dempster: 2.36 WAR
- Paul Maholm: 1.71 WAR
Comments
I heard Jed Hoyer on the radio 2 weeks ago and he was talking about how much they loved F7’s spring. I figured then he was going to be given a spot in the rotation. I don’t think this is just Sveum falling for him. I will feel a little bad for the Superfriends when he inevitably breaks their hearts but not all the Golden Domers in their F7 jerseys.
melissaQuote Reply
Those are some pretty terrible projections. Better pray that the scouts were right (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
melissa wrote:
I won’t. They will have gotten what they deserved. I think Theo and Hoyer are going to do many more good things for this organization than bad, but this is a bad decision. A year ago we’d have considered this a purely ERA decision. I even mentioned when Thoyer were praising Samardzija that they were doing so based only on his ERA. It’s frustrating. Obviously they know more than we do and I hope they really do know something that none of us can see. The more quality starters they have the better they’ll be in the future, but I’m not going to feel bad for them if it fails.
You’re probably right about Sveum/Thoyer here Melissa. I was surprised they talked him up early on, surprised they actually tendered him a contract and I guess considering all that I shouldn’t be surprised at the news today.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Speaking of ERA, I have a question.
Let’s says it’s the eighth inning and James Russell gets the first batter out on a pop up. Then he gives up a single to Luis Castillo. Then he strikes out the next batter for the second out, but Castillo steals second on the strike three pitch. Now Kerry Wood comes in to replace him to face a righty wtih two outs and a runner on second. He gives up a single and the runner scores. Then he gets the next guy out and they’re out of the inning.
Have the sabernerds discussed how unfair it is for Russell to take the hit on ERA while Wood gets off scott free? They both gave up one single each. Russell got two outs but Wood got one out. Yet Russell’s ERA goes up and Kerry’s goes down.
FOrgive my dumb ass if this is a really old and boring topic.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Yes and it’s partly why ERA is not of great use in small samples (a season, two seasons). Over a career the ERA will actually be a pretty good metric for talent. Baseball Prospectus has Fair RA (Fair Run Average). It calculates the run expectancy at the time Russell leaves and assigns that value to him regardless of whether or not the run scores. You calculate the run expectancy for the reliever and say it’s .3 and 1 run scores, the reliever is credited with .7 runs allowed.
You can ignore all of this stuff and focus more on defense independent pitching stats or use the numbers that Berselius is using for the projection (Pitching Runs Above Replacement).
mb21Quote Reply
Maybe they’re hoping Samardzija gets off to a flukey start and they can get some trade value out of him. Like buying a lottery ticket.
ACTQuote Reply
those of you with PS3 + mlb.tv, the app has been updated for this season
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ ACT:
One-two months of good Samardzija isn’t enough to wipe out 6 years of shitty Samardzija
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yes, but there are 2 options here. Either Thoyer think Samardzija has turned a corner, or they think some other team would think he has.
ACTQuote Reply
Bubbles is optimistic!
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Ryno’s redemption!
GWQuote Reply
Sullivan just wrote that the bench looks locked up with Mather baker Johnson Dewitt and the catcher…
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Catcher = …..?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Season Team W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
2008 Rangers 2 2 24 50 0 46.1 7.96 5.24 1.55 .301 64.4 % 49.3 % 16.3 % 6.02 5.48 4.63 -0.4
2009 Rangers 5 6 14 74 0 73.2 10.26 3.91 0.37 .318 75.2 % 55.4 % 6.3 % 2.81 2.89 3.22 2.0
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Samardzija has no options, even waiver options. He does have three arb years.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Probably the best bench they could put together with who they have in camp.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
Oooh, a guessing game…I’ll say CJ Wilson. What do I win?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I must admit, I’m actually looking forward to the Samardzija Experiment. It should be good for a few laughs, at least.
ACTQuote Reply
Just for fun, here’s the last game Samardzija started: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN201009260.shtml
ACTQuote Reply
As I think about F7 (where did this nickname come from?) going to the rotation, the comparison that comes to my mind is CJ Wilson. Here are the numbers from fangraphs:
Season Team W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
CJ Wilson
2008 Rangers 2 2 24 50 0 46.1 7.96 5.24 1.55 .301 64.4 % 49.3 % 16.3% 6.02 5.48 4.63 -0.4
2009 Rangers 5 6 14 74 0 73.2 10.26 3.91 0.37 .318 75.2 % 55.4 % 6.3 % 2.81 2.89 3.22 2.0
F7
2009 Cubs 1 3 0 20 2 34.2 5.45 3.89 1.82 .333 63.2 % 41.2 % 14.6% 7.53 5.90 5.09 -0.3
(I omitted 2010 because F7 was only in 7 games and 3 were starts. Apples and oranges.)
2011 Cubs 8 4 0 75 0 88.0 8.90 5.11 0.51 .253 75.0 % 41.0 % 5.3% 2.97 3.66 4.27 0.6
Wilson’s first year starting
2010 Rangers 15 8 0 33 33 204. 7.50 4.10 0.44 .266 72.4 % 49.2 % 5.3% 3.35 3.56 4.06 4.6
The numbers show Wilson to be better, but a similar trajectory, I guess. So maybe Samardzija turns out to be half or 1/3 as good as Wilson in his first year starting. 1.5-2.6 WAR? That’d be as good as Maholm.
I’m not saying that F7 will perform this well. I’m only saying that the move reminds me of the move with Wilson and in unicorn-world it’ll work out somewhat as well.
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
Ugh. Those numbers come out ugly in formatting, when you don’t know how to format a table in html.
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ ACT:
The two before that were comparatively better but if he can’t keep the walks down he’s not going to last. Here’s hoping.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=samarje01&t=p&year=2010
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Ask OV
Can’t we get a better picture of Dave McKay in the Superfriends montage? That red hat is really jarring.
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
Wilson had also had a solid year in 08, and better minor league numbers than F7
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
You are right, but I wasn’t trying to post that yet.
I suck at html, and the comment helper buttons disappeared, which makes it worse.
But since you guessed, I’ll send you a free copy of my latest co-authored publication in Forest Ecology and Management It might help your insomnia.
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
Will I see the forest for the trees?
/random idiom
I’m about to lose my national champion (dying laughing) Stupid Purdue.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
From Keri a week or so ago
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7655555/how-do-know-reliever-become-starter
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
…or not.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
That was a fun game.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Well, I seem to recall a lot of surprise to moving Wilson to the rotation in 2010. A lot of Wilson’s 2008 numbers aren’t drastically different from F7’s 2009.
Wilson 2008 K/BB=1.5 BABIP=.301 FIP=5.48 xFIP=4.63 WAR= -0.4
Smardj 2009 K/BB=1.4 BABIP=.333 FIP=5.90 xFIP=5.09 WAR= -0.3
I don’t know, maybe if his BABIP were more average then his FIPs would be closer to Wilson. Even though Wilson saved 24 games in 2008, some of his other numbers weren’t that great.
I agree about the minor league numbers though, and I don’t expect F7 to be a good caliber #2 starter like Wilson has been the last few years, but perhaps the trajectory suggests he could be an acceptable #4.
Or maybe I’m misinterpreting some of the sabermetric stats. I think my basic knowledge of them is fine, but you guys surely have the nuances down better than I do.
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
F7 is the spellcheck hotkey, maybe?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Correct. Took me a while to figure that one out, too.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
It probably won’t go well, but maybe it’ll put the last nail in the coffin of Jeff Samardzija’s dreams and we can all witness him dying inside. That’s always entertaining.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
No, my student and I discuss why native tree species do worse in response to fires than does a common introduced species. Basically the WAR of the non-native was way better than any of the natives, but we used Cox proportional hazard analysis instead of WAR. Should’ve used Field Independent Percentage though.
Yawning now?
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ josh:
Hey Thanks. I have Macs. That’s why I didn’t get it I guess. Spell check is command+option+L.
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Thanks
SkipVBQuote Reply
SkipVB wrote:
The point is that there’s a reason people were surprised, just as there’s a lot of head-scratching about Samardzija. Sometimes something like this works, and I hope it does, but most of the time it doesn’t. It’s just a bad bet, even if it does hit.
BerseliusQuote Reply
CJ Wilson minor leagues through age 25 (2006): 3.53 ERA, 8.3 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 2.5 K/BB
Jeff F7 minor leagues through age 25 (2010): 4.30 ERA, 9.0 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.9 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.6 K/BB
These two may have had a similar season along the way, maybe even at the MLB level, but these are two considerably different players when it comes to their talent level. Not to mention, once CJ Wilson was moved to the bullpen full time he flat out dominated minor league hitters. Samardzija was just plain bad in relief at the minor league level.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Exactly. And for all the successes, it also ignores all the players teams who have had relievers as bad as Samardzija who didn’t even bother trying them in the rotation. The reality here is there are very few players who have been as bad as Samardzija who were suddenly moved to the rotation at the age of 27. Teams just don’t do this for a reason.
I hope this works out. 4 or so years of a quality F7 in the rotation would be awesome, but the odds of this succeeding are less than the Cubs odds of winning the next 3 World Championships. It might only be slightly higher than the chance they have of winning the NBA Finals.
mb21Quote Reply
For those interested, you can read this and also search that blog for rule of 17: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/starter_v_relief_1953_2008/
mb21Quote Reply
http://dailybigten.com/2012/03/19/the-big-ten-revenue-sharing-system-isnt-working/
mb21Quote Reply
@ SkipVB:
That’s good stuff. I’ve always found (natural) forest fires fascinating. In particular, I think the whole “clearing out the old to make way for the young” aspect of them neat.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
In case you’re wondering about the comments weirdness, we just changed the timestamp on the comments (only 7 days late) and it makes timestamps a bit strange for the next hour.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
@ mb21:
Hey wait! I’m confused. You mean the odds that the Cubs win the World Series the next three years are lower than 5-10%?
Can I reply to both of you at once, or will you be offended that I might be implying that you think the same?
So F7=Phil Coke (but F7 not as good in relief).
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
Yeah, pretty interesting, at least to me.
In our case, we don’t have natural wildfires because we don’t have an ignition source (no dry lightning) and no good natural fuel conditions. We have plenty of malicious or careless idiots though.
SkipVBQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I wouldn’t put the odds quite as low as MB. I’d even say there’s a 5-10% chance that he doesn’t completely suck (i.e. lose his rotation spot). I just don’t think his upside is much higher than Wells or Volstad even if he doesn’t pitch as shittily as I think he will
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ SkipVB:
(dying laughing), I was talking about my WAG at the odds of Jeff Samardzija pitching well enough to stay in the rotation.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ mb21:
So this was an interesting read, but I usually don’t head to that site much because its tone turns me off.
I much prefer witty than snitty.
SkipVBQuote Reply
I’ve been down on Samardzija more than anyone over the years, but I don’t mind him getting a shot if management thinks that something has changed. The nice thing about pitching peripherals is that they stabilize quickly. It should only take a handful of big-league starts for us to determine whether this is the same old Jeff7. If they keep giving him the ball after that point, then it will bother me.
GWQuote Reply
http://www.thecubreporter.com/cubs-depth-chart
Interesting look at depth chart from az phil
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Damn it you guys keep putting new stuff up that didn’t show up on the main page until just now.
The fact that he hasn’t walked anyone in his 10 innings in spring should probably matter. Despite it being spring, it’s not like a pitcher becomes magically immune to walking people. If he figured something out in the middle of last year in terms of control and it’s carrying over there’s no reason not to give him a shot in the rotation. He has good stuff. Command/control has always been the issue. His last three months he threw 42.2 innings 38K 17BB 2HR. That’s an FIP of 3.23. Now in ST he’s had 10IP 9K 0BB 0HR with no reported drop in his velocity to this point.
I get not expecting that much from Samardzija, but he’s been quite good his last 52.2 innings. And honestly, you can go back further than that. His first 7 outings he had 14BB in 11 innings. After that he went 77IP 76K 36BB 5HR. That’s an FIP of 3.45, 8.88K/9 and 4.2BB/9.
He had one really, incredibly awful stretch at the start of the year and then had a very nice 5+ months. Plus he’s carried that over to Spring Training.
There are plenty of reasons to think Shark will suck. But it’s not like there’s no real reason to think he could be a pretty good pitcher. He has good stuff. His numbers have been getting better and he’s been fantastic this spring. There’s a perfectly fine chance that something clicked or was changed and he’s figured out how to control his pitches. I mean the guy got huge overslot money for a reason.
And I’m not saying it’s a forgone conclusion, I think there’s a very real chance he’ll be God awful. But dismissing any and all evidence that he might actually be pretty good is overly pessimistic. It’s just as likely that Wells will never be the same, Volstad likely gets the last spot and Wood has options. So there’s no real loss in figuring out if Samardzija has figured it out and can be a valuable guy in the rotation. Especially since any of the three first guys could very well be moved at the deadline.
Doug etetectdsaagaQuote Reply
Also before anyone decides to just pull the “arbitrary end points” thing on me, here’s a nice read from Fangraphs on the very thing:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/seasons-are-arbitrary-endpoints/
Point being that everything is an arbitrary start and end point.
Doug etetectdsaagaQuote Reply
Joe Mather?
While I’ve always thought Campana didn’t belong on even a 6th place MLB team, I thought maybe Sappelt or someone who hasn’t sucked in multiple MLB seasons would get the job. And if they’re carrying DeWitt and Baker, they don’t need the fifth OF to be able to play IF.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Thanks. Fair RA sounds like a fair measure for RPs’ responsibility for runs allowed. I agree ERA probably does the job over the course of hundreds/thousands of innings and is probably fine for SP.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Doug etetectdsaaga:
Everything is arbitrary, but larger samples have more predictive value. 80 innings tells us more than 40 innings. Say you have a 3.5 FIP pitcher. You know for a fact that’s his talent level. Over 200 innings that FIP is more than likely going to end up being somewhere between 2.5 and 4.5. Over many innings more than that it would be 3.5. Now take a reliever with 80 innings. This is why relievers are so unpredictable. They throw so few innings. A 3.0 reliever can easily have a 5.0 FIP.
If we start accepting these small sample arbitrary endpoints, why not accept the stats like this: Koyie Hill, like every other player in baseball, bats 1.000 in plate appearances he gets a hit. We’ve just made Koyie Hill look comparable to Barry Bonds. Or why not use Tuesday and Wednesday?
And how come people say Ryan Dempster had a bad season last year, but suddenly Jeff Samardzija didn’t? Both were terrible at the beginning of the season and both were strong down the stretch. The difference is that Dempster did it as a starter and starting is much harder.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
5-10% is probably about accurate, but I think that has more to do with the Cubs not really having anyone who stands out as a long-term starter. This next offseason will be interesting. There are several pitchers available as free agents. I’d be a little surprised if the Cubs go after any of them, but they probably should. The organization’s pitching is complete shit.
mb21Quote Reply
face ^ palm
http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/daily-facepalm-3-19-12-weekend-of-samardzija.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
moved.
Doug etetectdsaagaQuote Reply