Marmol followed up his stellar 3 WAR 2010 season a much more heart-attacky 2011 season. Marmol's ten blown saves led all of baseball last year (tied with LAAoLAoDoQEoA's Jordan Walden). Marmol walks (and hits) a ton of batters, and continued that trend in 2011. However, his K/9 dropped to a "mere" 12 batters per nine, down from the record-breaking 15.99 of 2010. Marmol's HR rate also jumped up, as he gave up 7.5% HR/FB as opposed to the microscopic numbers he posted in '09 and '10. That's still quite good, but his HR-precenting skills were going to regress at some point. Speaking of regression, Marmol's BABIP over the past two years has hovered up around .300, which seems normal until you consider what an extreme fly ball/pop up inducing pitcher he is. One thing that looks like a blip in his otherwise stellar 2010 numbers was his 6.3% IFFB%, which had been well into the double digits previously, even reaching as high as 20% in 2009. His 2011 numbers also showed a lower number (9%), which could mean that batters are making better contact off of him.
Carlos Marmol got the pitchers equivalent of "best shape of his life" going into spring training, namely, the "we've made his delivery smoother" cliche. Not that spring stats mean much of anything, but Marmol has seemed just as wild as before, and has even looked more hittable. Most of that could probably be attributed to him focusing on locating his fastball, which he needs to mix in with his devastating slider. I don't think Marmol needs that much work on the slider because even when it's "on" he probably still doesn't know where the hell it is going. Marmol suffered a hand injury a week or so but all signs pointed to it being cramps. He got an MRI for it…on his neck, which was also sore. Could be something to look out for going forward.
| Projection | IP | BB | HBP | SO | HR | ERA | FIP |
| Steamer | 71 | 43 | 5 | 89 | 7 | 3.17 | 3.84 |
| Bill James | 76 | 52 | 8 | 97 | 5 | 3.43 | 3.71 |
| RotoChamp | 70 | 47 | 10 | 101 | 4 | 3.34 | 3.34 |
| Tango Marcel | 70 | 38 | 6 | 85 | 4 | 3.34 | 3.24 |
| ZiPS | 73.33 | 49 | 9 | 101 | 5 | 3.19 | 3.55 |
| CAIRO | 77 | 49 | 8 | 107 | 4 | 3.26 | 3.16 |
| PECOTA | 74.7 | 40 | 7.67 | 98 | 5 | 2.57 | 3.20 |
| Oliver | 75 | 49 | 7.67 | 102 | 4 | 3.95 | 3.28 |
| DavMarcel | 65 | 55 | 7.67 | 125 | 5 | 4.19 | 3.09 |
| Guru | 69 | 39 | 6 | 88 | 4 | 3.63 | 3.20 |
| Average | 72.1 | 46.1 | 7.67 | 99.3 | 4.7 | 3.41 | 3.37 |
With this projection, Marmol is worth 6.37 RAR, which combined with his closer role nets 1.31 WAR. He's getting more expensive, and I wonder if the Cubs would be able to move him for much of anything right now. Thank goodness for the Proven Closer surtax, though it's too bad Ed Wade isn't around to trade some of the Astros' copious reserves of nothing at the Cubs to get him.
Previous pitcher projections:
- Matt Garza: 3.02 WAR
- Ryan Dempster: 2.36 WAR
- Paul Maholm: 1.71 WAR
- Randy Wells: 1.09 WAR
- Chris Volstad: 1.0 WAR
- Jeff Samardzija: -0.42 WAR / who the hell knows
Comments
Over 72 innings with league FIP of 4.0, I get 0.9 WAR (including leverage). A starter with 72 IP and a 3.62 FIP would be 1.3 WAR.
mb21Quote Reply
Ignore that comment. There was an error in the spreadsheet.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
That’s cuz your spreadsheets have no heart.
MishQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
/Ryno’d
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://27bslash6.com/penguin.html
Penguin Books is no fun.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Watching Moneyball. Dig it so far. Just from what I’ve seen so far, I can see why they ignore Zito. The point is that he lost three “stars” and needs to replace him. That gets him thinking about whether these guys are stars, what is a star. I like how they did it. As soon as I’m dong baking this cake, I’m going to finish it and watch the A’s finally win a World Series.
I’m getting my hopes way, WAY up.
joshQuote Reply
Ted Lilly —–> 15-day DL
ACTQuote Reply
@ josh:
I’m going to put on Major League. Maybe the Yankees will win this time
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I wonder if they’ll launch an investigation against the Cubs. We might have to return DeWitt.
Mobile RiceQuote Reply
Jamie Moyer is the Rockies’ no. 2 starter and the oldest pitcher ever to make a starting rotation. I’m excited, even if I don’t expect great things.
ACTQuote Reply
I love Moyer. A total class act on and off the field.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
(dying laughing) there’s a look inside for his new book and you can find some new stuff without purchasing it fwiw: http://www.amazon.com/Home-Then-Chairs-Unpublished-Emails/dp/0615615953/ref=lh_ni_t#reader_0615615953
mb21Quote Reply
I liked Moneyball and I didn’t think I’d like it. I don’t care that they didn’t focus on Hudson, Zito and Mulder. That’s not what the movie was about. I thought they did a really good job. I thought they did a better job at dealing with the traditional scouts than Michael Lewis did.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
It was good. I enjoyed it. It was a good story, and show appreciation and sentimentality for the game without getting too sappy. A little sappy, but not syrupy.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Yeah i enjoyed it. Still wish the A’s won though.
WaLiQuote Reply
Bubbles enjoyed moneyball.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Every now and then Bubs thinks a producer should change the end of a movie to really troll the audience. Like let Voldemort win at the end of Harry Potter or let The A’s win the series.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Ugh. Hope anyone they pick up is of the Shawn Camp variety, not someone they have to spend anything other than money to get
BerseliusQuote Reply
Also Andrew Cashner has been lights out this spring.
9 IP, 13 k, 7 hits 3 BB…
I really hope that kid is awesome
edit: He always talked to Bubbs at Cubs nats games and was very nice
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
If he’d have changed the ending in that movie it would have completely ruined it.
mb21Quote Reply
Geovany Soto is batting 8th on opening day. Darwin fucking Barney is batting 2nd against one of the toughest righties in the game.
I don’t care all that much about lineups, but you may as well move Dempster up to the 6th spot in that lineup because it’s so fucked as it is.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
I doubt they’ll trade for anyone, but who knows?
mb21Quote Reply
ACTQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
ACT wrote:
BerseliusQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
I agree, Harry Potter is fine the way it is!
WaLiQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
I knew I had read early in camp that Barney was going to be hitting at the top of the order. This is nonsense. Then again, he did slug like a million so it’s surprising he’s not batting 4th based on his spring performance.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2012/3/30/2915434/the-ugly-side-of-rooting
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I can’t argue with you today.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I don’t get this and never have. No part of me has ever wanted someone the Cubs traded to do poorly. In fact, I’d be much happier seeing a former Cub or Cubs prospect do quite well after being traded. Even Ryan Theriot. I’d rather see him do well than poorly. He frustrated the shit out of me as a Cub, but now that he isn’t one he can’t frustrate me.
mb21Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/projections/how-good-is-the-cubs-rotation.html
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I think it’s fun to make fun of a player here and there but I don’t really bother booing anybody in person. Seems like a waste of effort.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
I always look forward to one of those posts where you complain about something you claim to not care about. Pick one or the other.
Kenyon MurrayQuote Reply