I don't really know why, but whenever I think about Darwin Barney I want to pronounce his name with a Boston accent. I guess it makes it more fun to think about Dahwin Bahney rather than what Barney is actually capable of producing. He returns for his 2nd full season though he's probably not the one who should be starting. He may not even be the best back-up 2nd baseman the Cubs have.
Barney got off to a strong start last season and led people to believe that we'd be seeing a middle infield of Barney and Castro for a long time. HIs .326 batting average was good for only a .351, but he managed to slug over .440. We knew that wouldn't continue. His wRC+ in April was 113. It then dropped to 75 in May, 45 in June and finished the season with 91, 77, and 64 wRC+ in the final 3 months. April was the only month in which his wOBA was higher than .300. Offense was down last year and that's not as bad it sounds as a result. On the season he was worth 2.2 WAR and about half of that was was batting. He was also very good on the bases (+6 runs) and UZR has him as +5 fielding. Barney was known as a very good fielding SS coming up through the system so we expected him to be quite good at 2nd. Total Zone and DRS weren't as kind defensively though. Given the amount of uncertainty in defensive metrics, I'm much more inclined to trust the scouting reports.
If you think Barney can provide even a passable level of offense you probably think he can continue to play every day. His defense and baserunning are both good enough that it's possible, but the question is whether or not he can hit enough. Below are his 2012 projections.
| Projection | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA |
| CAIRO | 399 | 100 | 3 | 21 | 52 | .270 | .311 | .354 | .296 |
| Guru | 480 | 118 | 3 | 24 | 60 | .268 | .309 | .359 | .296 |
| ZiPS | 599 | 156 | 3 | 28 | 76 | .273 | .311 | .352 | .294 |
| PECOTA | 523 | 137 | 3 | 22 | 70 | .274 | .307 | .353 | .292 |
| Oliver | 693 | 171 | 2 | 30 | 84 | .265 | .299 | .336 | .283 |
| Bill James | 321 | 84 | 2 | 15 | 36 | .275 | .317 | .356 | .296 |
| RotoChamp | 507 | 142 | 2 | 22 | 60 | .293 | .333 | .371 | .313 |
| Average | 503 | 130 | 3 | 23 | 63 | .274 | .312 | .354 | .296 |
Barney has no power at all and as a result pitchers aren't going to pitch around him. They'll attack the zone early so he's not going to draw many walks. He also makes frequent contact so pitches that are in the zone he's more likely to put in play than someone who doesn't make a lot of contact.
Also at 2nd the Cubs have Jeff Baker and recently acquired Adrian Cardenas. I already published Baker's projections with the 1st basemen, but I'll republish them here.
| Projection | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| CAIRO | 228 | 56 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 49 | .267 | .320 | .408 | .319 |
| Guru | 222 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 45 | .251 | .293 | .355 | .286 |
| ZiPS | 248 | 58 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 55 | .250 | .299 | .375 | .297 |
| PECOTA | 366 | 87 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 87 | .256 | .310 | .390 | .306 |
| Oliver | 242 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 49 | .261 | .308 | .379 | .303 |
| Bill James | 176 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 35 | .280 | .333 | .433 | .333 |
| RotoChamp | 213 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 48 | .265 | .310 | .395 | .310 |
| Average | 242 | 59 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 53 | .261 | .310 | .391 | .308 |
Baker's numbers aren't pretty either. He can hit lefties, but you can't platoon two righties. Cardenas does hit from the left side, but he doesn't appear to be all that much better than either of Baker or Barney. Below are his projections.
| Projection | PA | H | HR | BB | SO | avg | obp | slg | wOBA |
| PECOTA | 155 | 39 | 1 | 11 | 23 | .268 | .320 | .362 | .302 |
| CAIRO | 651 | 144 | 6 | 49 | 89 | .243 | .302 | .330 | .284 |
| Oliver | 532 | 131 | 5 | 42 | 73 | .740 | .330 | .374 | .313 |
| Average | 446 | 105 | 4 | 34 | 62 | .417 | .317 | .355 | .300 |
The Cubs 2nd basemen aren't going to set the world on fire. Jeff Baker is their best 2B and has only a .308 projected wOBA. Next is Cardenas whose projected wOBA is only .300 and then the probable starter and perhaps leadoff man is the worst at .296. Baker's CAIRO is a .337 wOBA vs lefties while Barney's is .311 vs lefties. There's really no way that Barney can make up the difference with his defense and baserunning to deserve playing time over Barney. Cardenas would be the best vs right handers, but he's yet to prove he can play even part time.
PECOTA projects 1 WAR out of Baker and Barney and they have -.3 WAR for Cardenas at 3rd base. Off the top of my head I was going to say that this group would probably be expected to be no better than 1 WAR. Of the 3 positions we've looked at so far, this is perhaps the weakest. It's pretty close to 1st base where we have 1 WAR projection between LaHair, Rizzo and Baker. That's a lot friendlier than PECOTA. They have -.6 WAR for LaHair, -.6 WAR for Rizzo and .3 WAR for Baker. My instincts tell me that LaHair and Rizzo both beat their PECOTA projection and other projections agree with that. But not by much. Behind the plate we had a solid 2.8 WAR projection.
Comments
mb21 wrote:
I believe Burnett and his wife live in Maryland so he probably wants to go to Pittsburgh to be closer to home.
MuckerQuote Reply
DeWitt ————-> Iowa
BerseliusQuote Reply
The entire infield save SS and C is going to painful this year.
joshQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
I have a friend who lived in LA. It sounded like a nightmare, honestly. Then again, my friend didn’t have a baseball player’s income.
joshQuote Reply
Location of his family must be it because if it has anything to do with winning you certainly don’t accept a trade to the Pirates.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.centives.net/S/2012/how-much-would-it-cost-to-build-the-death-star/
GWQuote Reply
@ josh:
Yeah, they have a shitty infield. The outfield isn’t a whole lot better either.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I think at his age and having already been part of a World Series (I’m not sure if he was on the 2003 postseason roster for the Marlins) that he probably cares more about comfort at this point.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I guess the outfield seems not great, but okay. There are at least a few reasons to think the outfield could be mildly productive. If Byrd’s drop was mainly due to his injury, maybe he bounces back a bit. Soriano in a platoon role perhaps could be effective. B Jax might come up. There’s at least something going on. Maybe I’m way off-base, but the infield and pitching are what have me the most depressed.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
They all have their reasons of course.
mb21Quote Reply
@ GW:
That’s assuming they used steel and not fake matter created by Higgs field induced fluctuations.
joshQuote Reply
@ GW:
I like the part where they default on the loan.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Happy Birthday Michael Jordan!
MishQuote Reply
Terry Francona with MJ ^^
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Which one’s Michael? The one in the red shirt?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
The white cop.
MishQuote Reply
@ josh:
Byrd’s drop was almost entirely playing time related for what it’s worth.
mb21Quote Reply
I hope Barney makes the leap. If you were Chicago (NL), and Darwinning was profiled as an excellent defensive shortstop, do you try moving Castro to 2nd as to improve the defense and give Darwin more value? .270 may be below average for 2nd Basemen, but a .270 hitter who plays ++ Defense at Short is quite valuable whether or not he hits for power.
He has an awesome name though. He must have cool parents to name him after the founder of natural selection and a singing, purple dinosaur.
PezcoreQuote Reply
josh, did you ever reach your aspirations?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ josh:
He’s the one behind Francona that you can’t see.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Pezcore:
I don’t move Castro. I think Castro will have to move away from SS within a couple years, but I’m not moving him away from it so Barney can play there.
mb21Quote Reply
@ WaLi:
I’ve seen that several times and never got around to figuring out if it was real or staged.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
AJ burnetts wife is deathly afraid of flying. She would take limos from baltimore to toronto when he was playing there. had it worked into his contract.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
It has to be staged, right? I mean look at the faces of the customers. Some are happy and some are sad, just like in a real strip club. If it was at home depot, they would all be sad excep the one who got the snow shovel.
Also the mom looks hot for a stick figure. Have you ever been to home depot? The employees there are not hot.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
She should try skydiving.
But I kid, my wife doesn’t like flying either, I have to agree to let her get drunk-ass-drunk before she will get on a plane.
@ WaLi:
You make good points. I’m not entirely sure why one would be sad at a strip club though, unless they were annoyed at the amount of money they just wasted on saggy titties.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Do you think 2nd or 3rd ends up being a better fit for him? I think he’d make a better 3rd baseman. A position switch probably prolongs his career too.
I’m not ready to give up on Darwinning yet. He did well in his rookie season, is a solid defender, and has + speed. Do I expect him to improve greatly? No, but I believe in a hopeless season it’s worth giving a chance.
If Darwin ends up being the real thing, I would consider moving him to short especially if he’s ++ defensively. It’s really difficult to tell what year two brings for the players.
PezcoreQuote Reply
Funny, I’ve always felt compelled to pronounce his name with an extreme Chicago accent instead (“Darewin Bareney”). You know your guys suck when the most compelling thing you can point out about them is, hey, they got a funny name!
uncle daveQuote Reply
I like Barney just fine at 2b, mostly for his glove. The main problem is that he should never bat higher than 8th in any major league lineup.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Pezcore:
I’m all for Barney getting the bulk of the playing time next season. The Cubs won’t be any good so you may as well see what he’s capable of doing. maybe he surprises us and is about as valuable as last season. The Cubs have nothing to lose.
mb21Quote Reply
So what’s holding Darwin back from being a high-contact singles/doubles type hitter? Does he swing at too many out of the zone?
joshQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
No, but I did drive a taxi for a little while, and stripperswere one of my main fares. So I did get to touch a lot of dollar bills that had been close to stripper assholes.
joshQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
(dying laughing)
ov-optimism
GWQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Not that they matter.
MishQuote Reply
@ josh:
What’s holding him back is a lack of power. If he can start hitting more doubles the pitchers will have to be more careful, but until he does that they’re going to challenge him. If he hits for more power (doesn’t have to be home runs), the pitcher will try to be more precise, which will lead to additional walks and better counts to hit in.
But it’s not at all likely we see that increase.
mb21Quote Reply
One of the prospects in the Burnett trade.
As someone who speaks no Spanish at all, I’m pretty sure that translates to “cantankerous white testicles.”
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Is this the first trade in sports history for testicles?
mb21Quote Reply
@ GW:
Probably. You’re allowed to pick any name you want when you’re from DR. At least until you get caught.
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
That makes sense. He doesn’t have the speed to run out all his infield flubs. He just seems like a guy who’s on the edge of being good offensively.
joshQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
No, I’m pretty sure the Dodgers are using Ted Lilly in an experimental breeding program.
GWQuote Reply
@ mb21:
It’s definitely the first one since LeBron restarted sports history.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GW:
That already happened with a bulldog.
mb21Quote Reply
Sickels has Easterling as a late round sleeper.
GWQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Maybe that’s where the phrase “trade him for a bag of balls” came from
BerseliusQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Is the tarp to try to protect most of the outfield grass during the snowy months?
(dumb question but I really didn’t know, I just thought they left the field exposed and re-sodded in the spring)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
that’s not a tarp, they switched to astroturf.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/story/_/id/7585152/mlb-spring-training-2012-page-2-reveals-early-storylines
Rice CubeQuote Reply
As a demonstration of my generosity, I am giving a million dollars to any Civil War veterans who stop by my house.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
careful, sk is booking his plane reservations as we speak.
GWQuote Reply
GW wrote:
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X_Ot0k4XJc
Rice CubeQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
Again?
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I mean it’s worthwhile seeing if he can improve. I’m not hopeful, but who else are the Cubs going to play at 2nd? I won’t be disappointed if they go with a Baker/Cardenas platoon though.
mb21Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
He is 26, and was able to make it through the minors fairly quickly, so I guess it’s possible that he could improve for a year or two before he starts his age decline.
26.2cubfanQuote Reply
@ 26.2cubfan:
He’d have to improve quite a bit. His wRC+ in AAA was about 79 over 751 plate appearances. Barney has always been a guy who wasn’t going to hit much at the big league level, but would hopefully make up for it with his defense. According to UZR he did that last year. TZ and DRS weren’t as friendly to him. He’s also been a very good baserunner. I think it really comes down to him being able to hit more doubles. He’s going to have turn on the ball more, which will leave him open to pitches low and away that he’s used to hitting to RF. The improvement would be small, but perhaps enough. I just don’t think it’s something he can do.
mb21Quote Reply
Not to be a Debbie Downer, but has anything come to fruition about the Castro-sexual-assault case?
jtsunamiQuote Reply
@ jtsunami:
I haven’t heard anything since the Cubs Convention. Anyone else?
mb21Quote Reply
jtsunami wrote:
Probably. It will get reported in July. What’s your rush?
Aisle424Quote Reply
I guess if Castro gets put in jail or something, we’ll get to see what Darwin can do at SS.
That would be the worst.
joshQuote Reply
GW wrote:
As soon as this taping is over, I’ll be right there.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_iq5yzJ-Dk
Suburban kidQuote Reply
MishQuote Reply
So, they’re throwing At Bat 12 in with the MLB.TV subscription this year. Well, for the premium version anyway.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Hmm I was thinking of getting MLB.tv this year since I can’t watch the Cubs any other way, shitty that you can’t watch on AppleTV/PS3 unless you get premium.
Also saw this at the bottom…
•All live Toronto Blue Jays games are blacked out throughout the entire country of Canada.
THE ENTIRE COUNTRY? (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Is At Bat 12 the thing where you can see all the camera angles, or what?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
No, At Bat is the phone app where you can watch games (live) on your phone or tablet. It also has Gameday, clips, all that shit.
The thing with the camera angles is I believe only available if you have AT&T U-Verse or something like that.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/my-top-2012-cubs-prospects-part-1.html
mb21Quote Reply
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Trust ReviewQuote Reply