Team Overview
Team stats (and NL ranks)
wOBA: .297 (15th)
UZR: -8.1 (12th)
DRS: -6 (6th)
SP FIP: 3.22 (3rd)
SP xFIP: 3.47 (4th)
RP FIP: 2.79 (3rd)
RP xFIP: 3.14 (2nd)
Batters
| Player | wOBA | ZiPS wOBA |
| CF Andres Torres | .390 | .337 |
| 2B Freddy Sanchez | .301 | .313 |
| 1B Aubrey Huff | .283 | .344 |
| C Buster Posey | .319 | .365 |
| RF Nate Schierholtz | .334 | .327 |
| LF Pat Burrell | .354 | .345 |
| 3B Mark DeRosa | .292 | .326 |
| SS Miguel Tejada | .223 | .307 |
A huge (dying laughing) at the Giants for not only being forced to play Aaron Rowand when Torres went down, but also for choosing to have Rowand bat leadoff in every game while Torres was down. Bonus LOLs go out to the Giants for batting Mike Fontenot third for a solid week during that stretch (and playing SS too!). Aside from Posey, Torres (when healthy), Sanchez, and the sorely missed Pablo Sandoval, the lineup is a mess, with nearly every position seeing players rotated through hoping someone will get hot. DeRosa is the latest to be in front of the 3B carousel with Panda out with a broken hand. Aaron Rowand has seen significant time at LF (!) and Huff, Schierholtz, and Cody Ross keep getting penciled in to RF. Huff’s Berkman-esque defense there forced a move back to 1b and Brandon Belt back to the minors, despite the fact that he’s pretty much the only young bat worth a damn they have not named Buster Posey. There’s a lot of age on the position player side of this roster.
Pitchers
| Player | FIP | ZiPS FIP |
| RHP Tim Lincecum | 2.12 | 2.40 |
| LHP Jonathan Sanchez | 3.47 | 3.60 |
| RHP Matt Cain | 3.43 | 3.38 |
| LHP Madison Bumgarner | 3.28 | 3.80 |
| RHP Ryan Vogelsong (!) | 3.58 | 5.13 |
| RHP Brian Wilson‘s Played Out Marketing Campaign | 2.95 | 2.54 |
| LHP Jeremy Affeldt | 5.07 | 3.57 |
It’s clear where this team’s talent lies. The Giants are “missing” Barry Zito, who is out with a foot injury.
Pitching Matchups
Friday Friday: Madison Bumgarner, LHP (4.21, 3.28, 3.52, 3.80) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (7.20, 5.42, 3.70, 3.89), 1:20 PM CT
The fact that Bumgarner has a 3.28 FIP and a 0-5 record tells you both how useless W-L records are as stats and how punchless the Giants offense is. Bumgarner gets ground balls and doesn’t walk many batters, though he’s had more trouble with his control this year when compared to last year’s rookie season. Most of thos numbers are due to some struggles in his first two or three starts. Since then he’s settled down and is pitching quite well.
For Demp’s preview, I’ll just mention that he’s pitched very well in his last two starts and link this. Of course this means that the punchless Giants offense will score 8 runs on him in two plus innings.
Saturday: Ryan Vogelsong, LOL (3.05, 3.58, 3.66, 5.13) vs Doug Davis, LOL (-,-,-, 4.42), 6:10 PM CT
Unlike tomorrow’s great matchup, this is a matchup of two guys who I wouldn’t have guessed were still pitching in MLB. Vogelsong is synonymous with “failed Pirates pitching prospect”. He’s cut his walk rate down with the Giants, which leads to his great FIP, but he has an unsustainable .193 BABIP. Davis drove the Cubs nuts when he was with the Brewers. He’s always walked a ton of batters, but it seemed like every time he faced the Cubs he’d have an 8:1 K/BB ratio. Credit to him for coming back from cancer a few years ago to continue to put up production in MLB.
Sunday: Tim Lincecum, RHP (2.11, 2.12, 2.44, 2.40) vs Carlos Zambrano, RHP (4.35, 3.61, 4.09, 3.60), 1:20 PM CT
I love it when Z gets matched up against great pitchers. Lincecum has had only one bad start this year, a six run, six walk performance against the Braves. He’s getting even more ground balls than usual this year, and is still striking out more than a batter per inning. Just give him the Cy Young now, Halladay in the NL notwithstanding.
Z had another vaguely worrisome start against the Cardinals. He only struck out three batters, gave up eight line drives, and is still not getting enough ground balls. Lucky for him Carpenter also had a mediocre start, but he won’t be as lucky against Timmay
Prediction
Cubs lose two of three again, but at least we’ll see some good pitching in this series. The Giants offense is pathetic enough that the Cubs could squeak out a series win…if their own offense was worth a damn.
For comparison, what are the Cubs stats and rankings?
Cubs team stats
wOBA: .325 (10)
UZR: -6.7 (11)
DRS: -13 (12)
SP FIP: 4.28 (11)
RP FIP: 3.53 (5)
For the individual players
http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Cubs&pos=all&stats=bat&qual=0&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011
Of course, I’m going to Saturday’s game. (dying laughing) Here’s hoping it gets rained out.
[quote name=Mish]Of course, I’m going to Saturday’s game. (dying laughing) Here’s hoping it gets rained out.[/quote]Then we’d just see Doug Davis pitch in one of the two games played between the teams on Sunday. No thanks. He’s difficult enough to watch when there’s only one game, but two?
Yeah, that’s the problem. The Giants offense just might be better.
With Soto injured, I’m sure they have a better offense.
[quote name=mb21]Yeah, that’s the problem. The Giants offense just might be better.
With Soto injured, I’m sure they have a better offense.[/quote]
I’m not sure what you’re saying – do you think the Cubs offense stinks? (dying laughing).
Even without Geo I think the Cubs offense is much better than the Giants.
I don’t see the Cubs avoiding a sweep. The Cubs offense against their pitching staff is going to be comical.
[quote name=mb21]Then we’d just see Doug Davis pitch in one of the two games played between the teams on Sunday. No thanks. He’s difficult enough to watch when there’s only one game, but two?[/quote]
Yeah but maybe I wouldn’t go to that game. (dying laughing) I’m turning into a total spreadsheet faget, as I care more to discuss the team than to watch any of the games.
http://www.texasexes.org/blog/post/Computer-with-Schizophrenia.aspx
[quote name=Berselius]I’m not sure what you’re saying – do you think the Cubs offense stinks? (dying laughing).
Even without Geo I think the Cubs offense is much better than the Giants.[/quote]You’ve mentioned this before. I don’t think you appreciate how bad the Cubs offense is. Below is theprojected wOBAs from the chart you provided here for the Giants along with the projected wOBAs for the Cubs players in the most recent game that Geovany Soto started.
0.343 0.337
0.297 0.313
0.334 0.344
0.347 0.365
0.347 0.327
0.365 0.345
0.333 0.326
0.353 0.307
Replace the .353 with about .290 now. The projections also adjust for which ballpark the player plays his games in. Adjust these to league neutral and it’s not even close. I think AT&T grades out about neutral while Wrigley is a hitter’s paradise. However, it’s quite obvious that players think AT&T is a pitcher’s park. That’s why so many top end free agent hitters have wanted nothing to do with offers from the Giants in recent years.
Even with Soto, the Cubs offense isn’t as good as the Giants. The Cubs offense just isn’t any good. Neither is the Giants, but I’d much rather have that offense.
UT scientists should inject the Cubs with schizophrenia next.
The projections also don’t factor in how D-O-N-E Aramis Ramirez is. Dude is slugging under .400 and has an ISO under .100. Without Soto, I think the Cubs offense is one of the 3 or 4 worst in all of baseball.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]UT scientists should inject the Cubs with schizophrenia next.[/quote]They’d be a lot more entertaining.
[quote name=mb21]The projections also don’t factor in how D-O-N-E Aramis Ramirez is. Dude is slugging under .400 and has an ISO under .100. Without Soto, I think the Cubs offense is one of the 3 or 4 worst in all of baseball.[/quote]
Your stat comparisons above are more than fair, but it’s dumb to throw in how D-O-N-E guys like Ramirez and Pena are when we don’t know anything about the Giants hitters. Burrell and Huff could just as well be D-O-N-E
I hope AC makes another game/lineup preview. Except more accurate this time.
I hear a lot how the Cubs want their players to be aggressive and to swing the bat and that’s why a lot of the prospects aren’t good at getting on base. But why would they do that? Why would they put such a low emphasis on getting on base? Is it because they know that nobody can drive them in anyways?
[quote name=mb21]You’ve mentioned this before. I don’t think you appreciate how bad the Cubs offense is. Below is theprojected wOBAs from the chart you provided here for the Giants along with the projected wOBAs for the Cubs players in the most recent game that Geovany Soto started.
0.343 0.337
0.297 0.313
0.334 0.344
0.347 0.365
0.347 0.327
0.365 0.345
0.333 0.326
0.353 0.307
Replace the .353 with about .290 now. The projections also adjust for which ballpark the player plays his games in. Adjust these to league neutral and it’s not even close. I think AT&T grades out about neutral while Wrigley is a hitter’s paradise. However, it’s quite obvious that players think AT&T is a pitcher’s park. That’s why so many top end free agent hitters have wanted nothing to do with offers from the Giants in recent years.
Even with Soto, the Cubs offense isn’t as good as the Giants. The Cubs offense just isn’t any good. Neither is the Giants, but I’d much rather have that offense.[/quote]
This does not account for pitches that are dick-high. Do better.
[quote name=mb21]They’d be a lot more entertaining.[/quote]
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
[quote name=Jame Gumb]
[/quote]
(dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
Apparently Wickers went back in time and broke up his parents toward the end of this gif.
I’m not going to fix it, though.
Changes in attendance since last year:
http://www.businessinsider.com/sports-chart-of-the-day-mlb-attendance-2011-5
[quote name=Mish]Changes in attendance since last year:
http://www.businessinsider.com/sports-chart-of-the-day-mlb-attendance-2011-5/quote
10% drop? Damn.
[quote name=Rice Cube]10% drop? Damn.[/quote]
Imagine if they were still tracking actual attendance. I bet the Cubs have the biggest drop there. I doubt Seattle, Tampa, Baltimore or L.A. have 26,000 season ticket holders guaranteeing a minimum attendance at every game and then a big chunk of them not bothering to show up.
[quote name=Aisle424]Imagine if they were still tracking actual attendance. I bet the Cubs have the biggest drop there. I doubt Seattle, Tampa, Baltimore or L.A. have 26,000 season ticket holders guaranteeing a minimum attendance at every game and then a big chunk of them not bothering to show up.[/quote]
It speaks to how putrid the product is if people have already paid for it and don’t even want to be there to “enjoy” what they purchased.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]
[/quote]
I didn’t think it was possible but I like this more than the forest gif.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Um…why is Dempster hanging pitches?
Who is the guy all the way on the right of that gif?
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]Who is the guy all the way on the right of that gif?[/quote]Ronnie Woo Woo
^ That last one is very disturbing. But the kid has a point.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Um…why is Dempster hanging pitches?[/quote]
Is the catcher’s target dick high?
[quote name=oog]
[/quote]
Wrong.
[quote name=jtsunami]I hope AC makes another game/lineup preview. Except more accurate this time.[/quote]I don’t do accurate.
[quote name=Lukas]I like this more than the forest gif.
[/quote]
Wrong.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Is the catcher’s target dick high?[/quote]
Koyie Hill must be excited to play today then.
That’s some serious gloamin’.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Wrong.[/quote]
Faget
(dying laughing) at Bob affectionately calling the Giants “a bunch of grinders and dirtbags.”
Darn those up the middle ground balls and infield singles.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Darn those up the middle ground fagets.[/quote]
So disturbing.
“Faget” is the new “Smurf” eh.
Amazing. Bumgarner had to throw more than 10 pitches this inning.
What a shitty way to lose your no-hitter (dying laughing)
Yeah, that park just isn’t as beautiful when they suck ass for 2 years in a row.
Johnson made a very Reedsy catch of Fontenot’s near-homer.
Wells ————————-> Peoria on Tuesday
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Johnson made a very Reedsy catch of Fontenot’s near-homer.[/quote]
Is there a Reed-shaped hole in the wall now?
[quote name=Rice Cube]Is there a Reed-shaped hole in the wall now?[/quote]Aye
[quote name=Rice Cube]Is there a Reed-shaped hole in the wall now?[/quote]
No, it’s still shaped like Sam Fuld.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Is there a Reed-shaped hole in the faget now?[/quote].
[quote name=Lukas]No, it’s still shaped like Sam Fuld.[/quote]
Reed is not left-handed.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Reed is not left-handed.[/quote]
Reed says Reed can do anything Reed wants. Including be left-handed.
How do the Cubs fuck this one up?
OMFG Koyie.
[quote name=Berselius]Your stat comparisons above are more than fair, but it’s dumb to throw in how D-O-N-E guys like Ramirez and Pena are when we don’t know anything about the Giants hitters. Burrell and Huff could just as well be D-O-N-E[/quote]That’s true. Especially Burrell, but didn’t Huff have a really good season last year? Ramirez and Pena have been bad for over a year now.
I like how both pitchers walked each other out of courtesy.
Nice.
Koyie Hill should always bunt with a runner on third and less than two outs. I salute him.
[quote name=mb21]That’s true. Especially Burrell, but didn’t Huff have a really good season last year? Ramirez and Pena have been bad for over a year now.[/quote]
Ramirez hasn’t exactly sucked consistently has he? Didn’t he have a pretty good second half last year?
Scrappy McSmallball with another RBI.
S…A…F…E…T…Y…safety…squeeze!
So this is what offense looks like. I’ve missed it.
Huff had a strong year in 2010 but I think he was only barely above replacement level in 2009. That guy year over year might have some of the more volatile numbers I’ve seen.
Has Aramis really been bad for that long? As we’ve talked about, he ahd a really piss poor first half but his second half ISO was .250, which was above his career norms. He’s not hitting for any power, I agree, hut his K rate is down and his BB is about where it will be with him.
I like how Dempster did a silly walk getting to 3B.
Cubs displaying the small ball offense.
At the very least, the level of done-ness for Aramis and Pena are not apples to apples, imo.
Interesting…when did Castro adopt the Derrek Lee batting stance?
[quote name=Lukas]Ramirez hasn’t exactly sucked consistently has he? Didn’t he have a pretty good second half last year?[/quote]The numbers were good and there was reason to be optimistic, but at the same time, several other numbers were down even when he was hitting well. I’d have to take a look again, but my recollection was that either he was lucky AND still good or lucky and not good. It’s early in the season, but he has no power whatsoever.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Interesting…when did Castro adopt the Derrek Lee batting stance?[/quote]Is your feed like 20 minutes behind?
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Is your feed like 20 minutes behind?[/quote]
It might just be. I’m also following along on Gameday, which is usually about a minute or so behind. Just watched the replay of Castro’s flare into RF and I thought his stance used to be more closed.
[quote name=Mish]Huff had a strong year in 2010 but I think he was only barely above replacement level in 2009. That guy year over year might have some of the more volatile numbers I’ve seen.
Has Aramis really been bad for that long? As we’ve talked about, he ahd a really piss poor first half but his second half ISO was .250, which was above his career norms. He’s not hitting for any power, I agree, hut his K rate is down and his BB is about where it will be with him.[/quote]His line drive rate during the last two months was only 12%. I’d have to look further. I don’t know, but my money is on him being pretty much useless the rest of the way. Probably replacement level.
The pink hat guy got a smartphone.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Interesting…when did Castro adopt the Derrek Lee batting stance?[/quote]I brought that up a few weeks ago. i didn’t notice it for the first couple weeks of the season. I couldn’t find any mention of it in the media, which just goes to show how useless the media is.
I noticed the Castro stance change a few games ago but I thought it was an aberration. Guess he’s used to it now.
If I had first row seats, I’d leave my iPhone at home. This douche has been looking down the entire game.
[quote name=Suburban Kid]If I had first row seats, I’d leave my iPhone at home. This douche has been looking down the entire game.[/quote]
Or at least whip it out only between innings.
(preparing for onslaught of innuendos)
Tomorrow night’s game is the first Saturday night game at Wrigley in 13 years?
[quote name=Mish]At the very least, the level of done-ness for Aramis and Pena are not apples to apples, imo.[/quote]Depends. Neither is that much better than replacement level.
[quote name=Suburban Kid]If I had first row seats, I’d leave my iPhone at home. This douche has been looking down the entire game.[/quote]How would you text Al?
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]Tomorrow night’s game is the first Saturday night game at Wrigley in 13 years?[/quote]They play tomorrow night?
[quote name=mb21]They play tomorrow night?[/quote]
It’s a 6 PM start time. FOX.
[quote name=mb21]They play tomorrow night?[/quote]
Something with the Fox game but IDK why it wouldn’t be at noon.
[quote name=mb21]How would you text Al?[/quote]Al texts me. I don’t text Al.
Maybe it has something to do with Oprah? Or was that just the Bulls?
[quote name=Suburban Kid]If I had first row seats, I’d leave my iPhone at home. This douche has been looking down the entire game.[/quote]
Who? Pink hat douche?
[quote name=Alvin]Or at least whip it out only between innings.[/quote].
Woah Pena has 3 HRs now? I must have missed that.
[quote name=Jame Gumb].[/quote]
Is he whipping it out dick-high?
[quote name=WaLi]Is he whipping it out dick-high?[/quote]
I think that happens by default.
Unless you were talking about his smartphone…
[quote name=Lukas]Who? Pink hat douche?[/quote]Yeah. Faget faget douche.
Shit. Who’s injured?
[quote name=Rice Cube]Shit. Who’s injured?[/quote]The Cubs
Eh, I’ve got the game on but I’m not exactly riveted. I don’t recall them talking about an injury, just trivia questions and anecdotes about the Giants’ base coaches.
Think Dempster goes in for the 6th? I think he’s done, but Q may think otherwise.
Astros price tag = $680MM for Jim Crane, pending a bunch of legal mumbo-jumbo and red tape.
I agree with SK. This game is super boring.
[quote name=mb21]I agree with SK. This game is super boring.[/quote]Unless you enjoy Bumgarner striking out Cubs with inside pitches that are often dick high.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Astros price tag = $680MM for Jim Crane, pending a bunch of legal mumbo-jumbo and red tape.[/quote]That seems like a lot, although they are a team that has reached the WS in the last
centurydecade.http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/40-things-that-will-make-you-feel-old
[quote name=Suburban Kid]That seems like a lot, although they are a team that has reached the WS in the last
centurydecade.[/quote]The stadium is pretty nice. I wonder if Crane will move the flagpole.
Does Pat Burrell look like Puddy, or some other TV character?
Kosuke’s always good for a pinch-walk.
Barney with that patented inside out RBI swing.
so i was wrong about Barney. he is actually a pretty good little player
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Barney with that patented inside out RBI swing.[/quote]
Jeter-ific.
Only a TOOTBLAN can stop us now.
Byrd has figured out how to keep up his OBP without looking at many pitches…
[quote name=dylanj]so i was wrong about Barney. he is actually a nice little player[/quote]Fixed
The Cubs team SLG is off the charts. We have to be dead last in (SLG – AVG). Idk know if that’s a stat, but we have to be last.
[quote name=jtsunami]The Cubs team SLG is off the charts. We have to be dead last in (SLG – AVG). Idk know if that’s a stat, but we have to be last.[/quote]I’m no statdouche but I think that is a real stat.
[quote name=dylanj]so i was wrong about Barney. he is actually a pretty good little player[/quote]I like him too, dj. I figured he was good enough to be this team’s starter at 2nd based on his defense alone, but he’s not bad at the plate either.
[quote name=jtsunami]The Cubs team SLG is off the charts. We have to be dead last in (SLG – AVG). Idk know if that’s a stat, but we have to be last.[/quote]It’s ISO (Isolated Power)
[quote name=jtsunami]The Cubs team SLG is off the charts. We have to be dead last in (SLG – AVG). Idk know if that’s a stat, but we have to be last.[/quote]
That’s unadjusted/FanGraphs ISO.
Nothing like Jeff Baker facing RHP
They rank 21st in ISO
[quote name=jtsunami]Nothing like Jeff Baker facing RHP[/quote]Shut you right up.
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Shut you right up.[/quote]
(dying laughing) beat me to it
Quade is the opposite of Lou when it comes to taking out platoon guys when the SP has been replaced by a different-armed RP. Lou did it even for guys who weren’t really platoon players, while Quade never does it.
Surprisingly 8 teams have lower ISO than the Cubs. My eyes and perception deceive me. Must be all those Soriano HRs and early season Castro doubles/ triples.
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Quade is the opposite of Lou when it comes to taking out platoon guys when the SP has been replaced by a different-armed RP. Lou did it even for guys who weren’t really platoon players, while Quade never does it.[/quote]
In this case, Fukudome was already used (walk) and the others are Colvin (sucking) and DeWitt (who the hell knows). So I think the choice was sort of made for him to stay with Baker (dying laughing)
Maybe Baker can take over 3B if Aramis is really D-O-N-E.
Wow. Some Cubbish OF defense from the smooth-gloved Sure-holes.
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Wow. Some Cubbish OF defense from the smooth-gloved Giants.[/quote]
Reed is magic.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/mock-draft/2011/2611735.html
Starling and Starlin in 2013!
MB21 vindicated? (Dempster’s last three starts)
I was disappointed that Fukudome didn’t get another PA in that inning, but Koyie had to bat too.
[quote name=Suburban Kid]MB21 vindicated? (Dempster’s last three starts)[/quote](dying laughing) I thought it was funny when I wrote it he had the worst start of his career a couple days later. I was never in doubt whether or not he wouldn’t be good the rest of the way though. The numbers are the numbers and they all pointed to him being the same pitcher. I just posted that a couple days too early.
Kosuke > LHP
I vote that you re-institute the “Starlin Castro is good at sports” comment message.
Charles “Dinosaur” Fife can do that shit at will.
Is Baker hurt? Why did Mike Quade just reverse-platoon pinch-hit?
Perhaps it is in keeping with his unwritten rule for not running the score up.
Or maybe because DeWitt hasn’t played in a while.
Cubs win. God bless America.
God save the Queen.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/05/13/ryan-dempster-and-digging-out-of-a-hole/
Amen.