The Reds jockeyed with several other NL Central teams (including the Pirates!) for the divisional lead for the first half of the season, but after July 19 they moved into first place and never looked back. The closest they got to losing the lead was on August 9th, after NL MVP Shawn Camp exerted his powers and defeated the Reds to bring their lead down to 2.5 games. After that the Reds went on a five game winning streak and were never less than six games up the rest of the year.
The Giants basically had one opponent this year in their longtime rivals the Dodgers. The Dodgers got off to a strong start to the year, and the Giants were 7.5 games back in late May. Tim Lincecum lost whatever it was that made him Tim Lincecum, but Matt Cain threw a perfect game in mid-June in a run that led to the Giants tying for the divisional lead at the end of the month. For the next month and a half the Giants and Dodgers had eleven lead changes, and oddly enough the Giants only kept the lead after their center fielder and MVP candidate Melky Cabrera was busted for using testosterone. I'm disapponted in Cabrera, only becuase I was looking forward to the stupid contract that the Royals were inevitably going to offer to him next year.
Projected starting lineups:
| Reds | Giants |
| 2B Brandon Phillips | CF Angel Pagan |
| SS Zack Cozart | 2B Marco Scutaro |
| 1B Joey Votto | 3B Pablo Sandoval |
| LF Ryan Ludwick | C Buster Posey |
| RF Jay Bruce | RF Hunter Pence |
| 3B Scott Rolen | 1B Brandon Belt |
| C Ryan Hanigan | LF Xavier Nady |
| CF Drew Stubbs | SS Brandon Crawford |
It's not exactly clear what's going on with the back end of the Giants lineup. Joaquin Arias has picked up a lot of starts at SS lately, and Nady/Blanco seem to be in a platoon situation in LF. The Reds have chosen Zack Cozart and his .288 OBP to bat in front of perennial MVP candidate Joey Votto. I guess he must have plus speed, because stolen bases what you really need when you have a high slugging batter right behind you.
Rotations
Giants: Derrek Lee, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito
Reds: Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey
Team Statistics (NL Ranks):
- wRC+: Giants 99 (4th), Reds 93 (9th)
- BSR: Reds 5.3 (4th), Giants 4.3 (5th)
- SP FIP- : Reds 98 (7th), Giants 102 (10th)
- RP FIP- : Reds 82 (1st), Giants 99 (10th)
- UZR: Reds 11.9 (4th), Giants 8.6 (7th)
- DRS: Reds 32 (2nd), Giants -7 (8th)
Maybe I should have picked the Giants as my most overrated team, huh.
Game schedule:
Game 1 (@SFO): Saturday, 8:37 PM CT
Game 2 (@SFO): Sunday, 8:37 PM CT
Game 3 (@CIN): Tuesday, 4:37 PM CT
Game 4 (@CIN): Wednesday, TBA
Game 5 (@CIN): Thursday, TBA
Storylines you may or may not care about:
I wonder which Cabrera will be mentioned more tomorrow: Miguel's Triple Crown or Melky's PED suspension.
Will Big Time Timmy Tim show up in the playoffs? The Giants are considering starting Zito over him in game three, which shows how much his star has fallen.
The Reds are starting Bronson Arroyo in a playoff game. It would be fitting if he faces off against Barry Zito. If they make it to the WS, I hope the Orioles do too so he can face off with Joe Saunders in the LOL-Bowl.
Speaking of futility, Ryan Theriot was the Giants starting 2B for half the year, and batted second for 64 games.
Reds manager Dusty Baker was hospitalized with an irregular heartbeat for four days during the Cubs series last month, and may even have had a mild stroke. He's lost 20+ pounds and is back with the Reds to face the last team that he took to the World Series.
Buster Posey is probably the NL MVP, and has had a relatively quiet MVP season. I haven't really heard any buzz for anyone in the NL other than Posey, and that's just been from Giants fans. Joey Votto probably would have been the MVP if he hadn't missed a nearly two months with a knee injury in the middle of the season. He led the NL with a .474 OBP. Those are Playstation numbers. He also had a .567 SLG, 6th in the NL, but somehow only 14 HRs. He came in second to Rodrgio's 50 doubles with 44 of his own.
Projection:
I can't seem to find the BPro odds either, but I think the Reds are the clear favorites in this series.
I’m going to throw all your fagety spreadsheets out the window and root for the Giants anyway.
Problem with signing Upton, I think, is that he is coming in with a previous reputation of not hustling. I just think fans/media would tear him apart, Milton Bradley style.
Moneyball —> 26-pitch first inning despite two K’s
How did the Giants go from anemic hitting and great pitching to virtually the reverse in just 1 year? A healthy Buster Posey and an ineffective Lincecum is part of the story, but it’s still weird.
The Tigers are the real moneyball team. Just look at those fat, high-OBP guys in the middle of their lineup. (Note: I haven’t read the book, but that’s what moneyball means, right?)
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
They definitely make more money
Haven’t watched much of the Tigers this year, but man, is Prince Fielder fat. Amazing he doesn’t have more injury issues.
(Yes, I’m just now noticing this.)
Delmon Young is terrible. I can’t belief he’s the no. 5 hitter and DH on a playoff team. His wRC+ was 87 the last 2 years in a row.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
off the top of my head: melky was fantastic, pagan had a great year, more brandon belt
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Jim Leyland is smarter than you.
Young has been worth 0.8 fWAR and 0.6 rWAR. In his career. He has to be one of the very worst players to get regular playing time since 2007.
Verlander doesn’t have very good control tonight.
@ GW:
Sandoval is pretty great too
One of my Math Profs from UW wrote:
(dying laughing)
The umpire should have called the infield fly rule on Coco Crisp’s 1st inning home run.
@ mb21:
I figure with that pitch count Verlander’s got maybe two innings left and then the A’s can try to scrounge up some runs against the bullpen.
@ mb21:
Come on, mb, that’s totally against the rules. You should know better. There has to be a runner on base to call it.
@ Berselius:
In the umpire’s judgment there were runners on 1st and 2nd. Can’t challenge judgment calls.
@ mb21:
(dying laughing)
Hit-and-run fail.
Having Delmon Young run was almost as dumb as having him hit.
Speaking of the infield fly, have you guys seen this yet?
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/10/06/watch-harold-reynolds-argue-why-the-infield-fly-rule-was-the-right-call/
@ Berselius:
true. i was just going for big differences from last year.
Wow, THAT was a strike? I know Verlander’s good and all, but damn.
@ Rice Cube:
The comparison to the Castro play was nice. Virtually the same thing, except that Castro actually caught the ball.
@ mb21:
perhaps you haven’t read the book blog today. MGL has watched thousands of games and he thought it was a good call. I’m going to start deleting your comments if you disagree with him.
@ Berselius:
Jeter doesn’t make many errors. You have to actually get to the ball to make an error.
@ GW:
I read that and laughed. He’ll delete any comments that basically disagree. (dying laughing)
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I don’t think the person was trying to be accurate, but rather funny by explaining the errors with Jeter’s poor defense.
@ GW:
I really don’t think MGL understands people very well. I don’t think most people were really upset because they believed that it was the wrong call based on the rule book. I might have at first, but after reading the rules it’s hard to argue that. I still believe it was the wrong call though. Like Tango asked, had they not called infield fly on that play, would anyone have complained?
@ mb21:
I know. I was being snarky, too.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I’m an idiot.
@ mb21:
right, when a rule does the exact opposite of what it’s intended to do, it tends to bother some people.
Francona —> Indians officially official
121 pitches. You think Verlander’s done?
I will say that I think MGL has a point that this kind of snafu is so rare that changing the rule seems kind of extreme.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I haven’t read the Tango blog thread but I don’t think the rule needs to be changed, just the players and managers have to be better apprised of how it’s supposed to be called/signaled/whatever’d. Either that or they have to better define how it’s supposed to be judged since it’s a pure judgment call.
What would be fucking awesome for Pat Neshek and his family is if the A’s were able to come back right now after his shutdown inning and earn him the victory tonight.
@ Rice Cube:
Wishful thinking.
@ Rice Cube:
Of course the best thing that could’ve happened was if Pat Neshek’s infant son were still alive. To pitch in that situation so soon afterwards is pure madness to me, but I guess he needed it.
My shit doesn’t work in the playoffs.
@ Rice Cube:
I think there’s an element of benefit. He said his wife joined him up there. They’re around people who care for them. He’s able to shut his mind off and focus on pitching while he’s doing it.
Seriously, I don’t think a human being is capable of feeling anything worse than that. I get choked up every time I think about the joy we felt that first day and what it must be like to have that cut off abruptly. That’s the worst.
@ Billy Beane:
*scoffs in your general direction*
Wow, this sucks for the Reds
Thank DeRosa for the playoffs. We’ve had 8 posts in the last two days, after having something like two posts in the eight previous ones (dying laughing)
Whoa, what the hell just happened?
Johnny Cueto broke.
Cake made by a a friend of a friend from HS:
Double plus bonus: it’s a wedding cake
@ Rice Cube:
Two batters in? That sucks.
@ josh:
8 pitches if I counted right. It really does suck and speaks to the fickle nature of the injury demons.
What the hell? What happened to Cueto? Just turned the game on.
There goes my pick for the Reds winning it all.
Reports of many Giants fans standing and applauding Cueto’s injury. I know who I’m rooting against the rest of the way.
Video makes it look like a groin issue. Didn’t Cueto have groin problems earlier this season?
@ Berselius:
You sure they’re not applauding him walking off under his own power? The video cut off on me. But fans can be dicks.
@ Rice Cube:
It’s not like he was concussed or anything. I turned the TV on just as they were pulling him.
Whatever ad wizard greenlit that MLB fan cave commercial with Bronson Arroyo should be fired
(dying laughing) at everyone who is surprised that Latos is warming up to pitch the rest of this game. How is that not the right move?
Back spasms for Cueto
The 5 Reds starters had zero injuries all year and started 161 games combined (they also brought in Todd Redmond to pitch game 2 of a doubleheader against the Cubs). They were due for an injury.
Geno Smith: 25 TD, 0 INT
Apparently he had spasms before the game, but tried to pitch anyway
@ Berselius:
That sounds like a day-to-day issue, thank goodness for them. The way he was gimping around after coming off the mound made it seem like a groin.
I actually applaud the decision to get Latos loose here. He’s the #4 starter right? He’d still have time to recover for a potential game 4 or 5.
I like how they used Homer Bailey as the pinch-bunter here (dying laughing)
Phillips got all of that one
@ Rice Cube:
He was supposed to start game 3. I think the Reds are hoping Cueto can take his place
Early on it looks as though the Reds are going to go home with the homefield advantage after all. I do hate the 2-3 setup regardless.
Looks like the wild Aroldis showed up today.
There was surprisingly little commotion about those two invocations of the infield fly rule.
I think I will watch the Nats-Cards game. Go Natinals!!!
New shit
http://www.obstructedview.net/previews/ndls-series-preview-st-louis-cardinals-88-74-vs-washington-nationals-98-64.html