Will the Cubs complete the hat trick of being swept by some of the worst teams in the NL? This time they have the additional challenge of getting swept at home.
Team Overviews
NL Rank in parens
| Padres | Cubs | |
| wOBA | .278 (15th) | .296 (14th) |
| UBR | -4.4 (15th) | 4.1 (1st) |
| UZR | -1.7 (9th) | 9.9 (5th) |
| DRS | -7 (9th) | 6 (5th) |
| SP FIP | 3.98 (11th) | 3.95 (10th) |
| RP FIP | 3.74 (11th) | 4.68 (16th) |
The Cubs have already been swept by an NL team that has even worse offensive numbers. Now it's the Padres chance to bring up that average by feasting on the Cubs bullpen. The Cubs pen is the only one in the NL with a FIP above 4, and they have that beaten and then some.
Position players
Anthony Rizzo replacement Yonder Alonso has been their best hitter on the season with a .350 wOBA. As for the rest, the Padres have had four players post a sub .300 wOBA in over 100 PAs this year. The Cubs only have two (Stewart, Soto), though Soriano and Barney just miss the list. Cameron Maybin leads the Padres with 14 SB, and he, Wil Venable, and replacement level SS Andy Parrino lead the team in baserunning numbers. Not surprisingly, Alonso and C Nick Hundley are the major sinks in baserunning numbers. RF Chris Denorfia is projected to be their best defender, while Venable and Alonso are the worst.
Pitching Matchups
Monday: Jeff Suppan, LOL (4.21, 5.13, 5.43, 5.11) vs Travis Wood, LHP (3.86, 5.31, 4.28, 4.00), 1:20 PM CT
Jeff Suppan has made five starts with the Padres, throwing 25.2 innings and striking out just five batters. Any of those batters who weren't pitchers should just retire immediately.
Travis Wood followed up his serviceable start to the season with a pretty good one against the Astros. He looked a little shaky early but then bore down and had great stuff the rest of the way. I was surprised to see that he only struck out three batters in the start, and he was pulled in the 6th inning after throwing 97 pitches.
Tuesday: Eric Stults, LHP (1.96, 3.59, 4.51, 4.27), vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.00, 2.96, 3.18, 3.95), 1:20 PM CT
Stults was a swingman/AAAA starter for the Dodgers for many years, and bounced around to the Rockies and White Sox before the Padres picked him up earlier this season after a DFA. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher who hasn't given up a HR yet this year, and has a K/BB ratio of one. On the other hand, he looks like the kind of guy the Padres always seem to get serviceable production from (cf. Kevin Correia).
Shark had another solid outing without any run support against the Astros. He was hitting 95 to 96 on his fastball on the stadium gun, and his splitter looked as nasty as it has all season. His walk rate sits at a bafflingly low 2.84 BB/9. ZiPS has him projected at a sub-4 FIP even with a projected 4.50 BB/9, and if that walk rate has Transformed then wow.
Wednesday: Anthony Bass, RHP (3.55, 3.52, 3.46, 4.01) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (2.14, 2.70, 3.24, 3.88), 1:20 PM CT
Bass has been amazeballs as a starter this year, and has nearly doubled his strikeout rate from relieving last year. He was hammered in his last start by the Mets.
Dempster pitched into the 8th inning in his last start, giving up one run and taking the loss. He just doesn't want to win.
Suppan’s K/BB ratio is hilarious. The cubs should have no problem with him (they probably will).
Here are the guys who struck out against Suppan: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?pitcher=suppaje01#gotresults&pitcher=suppaje01&min_year_game=2012&max_year_game=2012&post=1&opp_id=&bats=any&opponent_status=&c1criteria=SO&c1gtlt=gt&c1val=1&c2criteria=&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc&ajax=1&submitter=1
Looks like Galvis, Scutaro, and Weeks for position players. Galvis is a defense-only middle infielder who was only called up because of Utley’s injury. Weeks is normally a good hitter, but he’s struggled this year and struck out 184 times a couple years ago. Scutaro is quite surprising, since he’s an excellent contact hitter.
A sign of just how bad the Cubs are this year: When I look at those pitching matchups, I would initially think the Cubs would win all 3 games. (dying laughing)
Rice in limbo wrote:
My arm started hurting when I was about 8 years old and I don’t remember a time playing baseball when it didn’t. I was throwing curves at the age of 6 so I doubt that helped, but I’ve always assumed it’s that way for most people who pitch.
That article is also why I never blame the teams for a pitcher’s injury. He played 15 years with pain with pain and never said anything to a coach. These guys play through pain all the time. If a pitcher notified a coach every time he felt something in his elbow or shoulder he’d rarely take the mound. This doesn’t mean teams shouldn’t use their starting pitchers responsibly, but I think it’s insane to blame a team for a injury that likely already existed before he was even drafted.
I felt the same way about those who struckout against Dolis. (dying laughing)
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
If I would have looked at these pitching match-ups before the season I’d have expected the Cubs to take the final game of the series and lose the first two.
@ mb21:
Dolis has plenty of velocity, at least. Suppan has nothing.
@ ACT:
O RLY
@ ACT:
True, but neither of them can strike anybody out. I’d put money on Suppan striking out more than Dolis as a reliever.
I was going to ask any of you DC-ites if you know a good place to watch the Cubs game, and I’m (dying laughing) just imagining some of the responses.
@ GBTS:
Padres/Cubs while in DC or anything else while in DC? You know the answer.
Cubs lose.
@ GBTS:
Not yet…not yet…
Number 3 hitter Joe Mather with a sacrifice. fuck
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
Shut you right up.
Travis Wood looks like he spends his spare time acting in westerns. I would make fun of Lalli for striking out, but we graduated from college together at a tiny liberal arts school, and its great that a career minor leaguer gets a few MLB games because of injury.
So…Darwin Barney.
Recalcitrant Blogger Nate wrote:
He looks like he’d fit right in on Justified
Pitcher formerly known as Leo Nunez ————-> 8 week suspension
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
He was bunting for a hit, according to the radio guys.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
The Padres have hit 10% of their home runs this season in 3 innings against the Cubs.
Wow, batting practice.
@ GBTS:
14%.
@ GBTS:
Sonfar today I think the Cubs have scored 14% of the runs this season that they scored in the first through seventh inning.
Home run derby!
Javier Baez is 1-1.
Jeez…that wind (dying laughing)
Why is Wood still pitching?
@ mb21:
I guess Sveum wanted him to have a chance to qualify for the win.
@ mb21:
Do you have to ask? It’s because the bullpen sucks.
Why is Suppan still pitching? I don’t even mean this game. Why is he pitching at all?
I like the part where Randy Wells doesn’t throw strikes either.
@ ACT:
They don’t suck as much as a tired and ineffective Travis Wood.
That almost was a great play by Castro.
Baez 1-2
I like offense.
Now it’s the Cubs turn to cough up the lead.
These 2 teams combined for 51 home runs through 94 total games. They have 7 in 6 innings.
mb21 wrote:
BUST
@ mb21:
Good call. Marmol’s in the pen.
@ Rice Cube:
C’mon, Marmol, blow this save!
@ Pezcore:
He won’t get a chance if Randy Wells keeps throwing BP
I think plays that should be judgment calls for the umpire. Yeah, it hit the batter, but Lalli had no chance of fielding that. Run scores.
I think it’s funny that a guy who was DFA’d is the Cubs “shut down” guy.
I like the wind.
What is this?
I am confused by today’s events.
@ shawndgoldman:
This is called a “win”…it hasn’t happened in many moons.
That was actually a fun game.
@ shawndgoldman:
i guess the Cubs failed to lose? i’m looking it up right now on Wikipedia. I guess that’s a real thing.
Castro saw 9 pitches all day.
@ Rice Cube:
…. ahhhhh…. YESSsss. I now recall.
The tune they played from my youth, that I have not heard in ages also seemed to jog my memory.
@ ACT:
He REALLY liked one of those.
Wind or no wind, this is impressive: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=21836029&c_id=mlb
@ ACT:
I knew Adolfo would sabotage the Cub’s draft pick status. He’s so latino.
The Brewers aren’t just snakebitten, they fell into an entire lair of snakes. Currently injured an unable to play to various degrees:
C Kottaras (hamstring cramps)
C Lucroy (bruised hand)
1B Mat Gamel (Torn ACL, out for year)
1B Travis Ishikawa (DL with oblique strain)
3B Ramirez (sore elbow)
SS Alex Gonalez (Torn ACL, out for year)
SS Cesar Izturis (DL with strained hamstring)
SP Marco Estrada (DL with quad strain)
SP Chris Narveson (Torn shoulder, out for year)
Also,
World Series Bound!
Wow, I didn’t realize what an extreme flyball pitcher Travis Wood is (career GB% of 32). Pretty much the worst possible pitcher to have on a day like this (except Suppan, who is the worst pitcher to have on any day).
Baez finished his first game @ Peoria with 2 singles, no walks, and no strikeouts in 4 PA.
“I thought we traded you!”
@ ACT:
Hmm. Suppan, or Anthony Young? I think we could debate this: ACT wrote:
for a long time.
Could be quite fun.
@ SkipVB:
http://www.hulu.com/watch/2306/saturday-night-live-point-counterpoint-lee-marvin-and-michelle-triola
Thanks for breaking the curse, MB
Ref: @ SkipVB:
New recap: http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/cubs-post-game-recap-by-the-rebellion-and-ewoks.html
@ SkipVB:
Aah, well, guess the ref doesn’t work, but a few threads ago accused MB of cursing the Cubs by writing the “Bad Teams get Hot” post.