It’s been just kind of a rough start to the year for the Brewers. If the Gambler’s Fallacy were actually true we could all have seen this coming, but alas. They have the worst run differential in the league, both due to bad pitching (pats self on back for this prediction), and untimely hitting. Adam Lind is the only position player who has put up numbers that are significantly above replacement so far, Gomez and LuCroy are hurt, and Braun and Ramirez are off to slow starts.
Top players
Listed by fangraphs projection from the teams’ respective depth charts
Brewers:
- WAR: Gomez (3.5), Lucroy (2.8), Braun (2.4)
- OBP: Lind (.351), Braun (.344), Lucroy (.343)
- SLG: Braun (.483), Lind (.467), Gomez (.460)
- Defense: Gomez (6.4)
- SP K/9: Fiers (8.8)
- SP BB/9: Lohse (1.9)
- SP ERA: Fiers (3.89)
- RP K/9: Smith (10.8)
- RP BB/9: Broxton (2.9)
- RP ERA: Smith (3.26)
Cubs:
- WAR: Rizzo (4.2), Lester (3.6), Bryant (3.4)
- OBP: Rizzo (.367), Fowler (.361), Bryant (.344)
- SLG: Rizzo (.498), Bryant (.493), Soler (.447)
- Defense: Rizzo (6.6)
- SP K/9: Arrieta (8.8)
- SP BB/9: Hendricks (2.1)
- SP ERA: Lester (3.18)
- RP K/9: Rosscup (11.2)
- RP BB/9: Rondon (2.8)
- RP ERA: Strop (3.08)
Probable pitchers
ZiPS projected K/9, BB/9, and ERA listed for each pitcher.
Friday: Wily Peralta, RHP (6.86, 3.47, 4.32) vs Jon Lester, LHP (8.16, 2.26, 3.11), 1:20 PM CT
Peralta’s a ground ball guy who doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts, but that’s been especially true so far this year. Judging by his career low walk rate however, at least he’s pounding the strike zone. Lester is getting his strikeouts while limiting walks but batters are still hitting him hard when they do make contact. Something tells me a 40% LD rate is going to regress.
Saturday: Mike Fiers, RHP (8.37, 2.49, 4.19) vs Jake Arrieta, RHP (8.58, 3.40, 3.63), 1:20 PM CT
I’m really hoping for a Fiers-Hendricks matchup later this season, to have a nice contrast of two guys who only throw in the high 80s but still get results. Fiers’s stat profile is even more unusual than Hendricks’s. In his four starts so far, it looks like his gopherball issues have returned.
Sunday: Jimmy Nelson, RHP (7.92, 3.96, 3.99) vs Jason Hammel, RHP (7.57, 2.42, 3.87), 1:20 PM CT
Nelson is the most intriguing pitcher on the Brewers staff this year, expected to carry the load with Yovani Gallardo gone. I don’t see a lot of upside in the rest of their starters, but if he emerges as a success this year that will be one of the few things they have going for them in this already lost season. Hammel has posted a 23-1 strikeout to walk ration (23-2 if you include a free pass from a HBP), which has been kind of amazing. His stats don’t line up with the image I have in my head, but I’m a little biased as Hammel was the Cubs starter I was most down on going into the season. He’s not this good, but so far it’s looking like I was wrong on that count.