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  • Series Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles (10-10) at Chicago Cubs of Chicago (9-9)

    Team Overview

    This is where I would normally talk about what the team’s done, but anything that the Dodgers have acoomplished this year is overshadowed by the legal battle that is shaking up between the McCourts and MLB. It’s going to be a big mess. If MLB does take over, I hope that they appoint current MLB VP of operations Kim Ng to run the team. Not only would it be a slam dunk PR move for MLB, but Ng is intimitely familiar with the Dodgers organization having worked there as an assistant GM from 2001 until earlier this year.

    Dodgers NL Ranks:

    wOBA: .292 (15th)
    UZR: 1.3 (7th)
    DRS: -3 (7th)
    SP FIP: 4.17 (10th)
    SP xFIP: 3.74 (8th)
    RP FIP: 5.57 (16th)
    RP xFIP: 4.56 (16th)

    Batters

    Player wOBA ZiPS wOBA
    SS Jamey Carroll .315 .304
    3B Casey Blake .348 .317
    RF Andre Ethier .426 .370
    CF Matt Kemp .494 .355
    2B Juan Uribe .250 .317
    1B James Loney .181 .318
    LF Gerald Sands .213 .330
    C Rod Barajas .273 .311

    The Dodgers offense is pretty much the poor man’s Brewers offense. There are two guys you have to worry about, then a whole lot of nothing. And for what it’s worth Ethier is a player I habitually undervalue. He’s a butcher on defense and I always think he’s a much lousier hitter than he actually is (in my head he’s similar to Jacque Jones). Kemp has obviously been hitting out of his mind. Their starting SS, Rafael Furcal, had a career year last year after it looked like his career was on the rocks. He got off to a poor start this year and is on the DL with a broken thumb.

    Pitchers

    ERA FIP ZiPS FIP
    LHP Clayton Kershaw 2.96 3.38 3.15
    RHP Chad Billingsley 4.91 3.27 3.12
    LHP Ted Lilly 4.09 3.91 3.62
    RHP Hiroki Kuroda 3.33 4.94 3.53
    RHP Jon Garland 4.15 4.59 4.33
    RHP Jonathon Broxton 6.14 6.46 2.76
    RHP Matt Guerrier 0.00 2.59 4.06

    The Dodgers have assembled a great pitching staff. If Colletti can find some hitting to go with it they’ll keep up their string of NL West titles, but it looks like it’s not going to happen this year.

    Pitching Probables

    (ERA, FIP, xFIP, ZiPS FIP in parens)

    Friday: Chad Billingsley, RHP (4.91, 3.24, 3.12, 3.10) vs Casey Coleman, RHP (4.22, 6.20, 5.84, 4.86), 1:20 PM CT

    The Cubs might as well start Koyie in this game, given the size of the mismatch. We had a long argument in the comments whether or not Coleman is worth a damn or not. At the time I didn’t care if he ended up with the 5th starter role, as it was what I was pushing for at the start of the season. Coleman was decent after being called up last season, but as Doogolas pointed out he was lucky with his HR rate. This year he’s been more unlucky (and only pitched 10 innings), but I don’t really care about those numbers. What’s more important to me is his pathetic strikeout rate in AAA and his brief time in the majors. If you’re going to strike out less than 5 per 9 you need to either get a ton of ground balls or walk less batters. Or prevent home runs. Maybe Coleman has that skill, I don’t know – most of the decent FIPs he posted in the minors were more a factor of his lower than usual HR/9.

    Not a lot to say about Billingsley exceptt that he should crush the Cubs today. He had a bizarre/injured start to the season two years ago that he bounced back so well from it’s hard to even tell from his numbers. He signed a 3/35 extension through the 2014 season in spring training that should be a fantastic deal for LA.

    Saturday: Ted Lilly, LHP (4.09, 3.88, 4.50, 3.62) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (6.84, 4.61, 3.32, 3.78), 12:05 PM CT

    I love this matchup. Along with Mark DeRosa these two pitchers were more or less the popular faces of the late 00s playoff teams. The only question is how many standing ovations Lilly will get (laughing). Lilly succeeded in his move to Wrigley against expectations, and unless the wind is blowing out he should do well again in this start. One of the nice things about Lilly was that it seemed to me that he was the kind of high-variance pitcher who a team would rather have than a consistent one. Lilly would seemingly rattle off two or three great starts in a row, then get absolutely shelled in a single start to make his stat line look average-ish over the span. Hopefully the Cubs catch him on a bad day, and Dempster’s HR luck evens out at the same time.

    Sunday: Hiroki Kuroda, RHP (3.33, 4.90, 3.79, 3.49) vs Carlos Zambrano, RHP (4.21, 3.91, 3.80, 3.74), 1:20 PM CT 

    It feels like Kuroda has always had the Cubs number, though a lot of that is just me remembering how he shut down the Cubs in the 2008 NLDS. He’s been quite unlucky with HRs this year but it hasn’t burned him very much. He gets a ton of ground balls but surprisingly has always had a good BABIP throughout his career.

    Z had his best game of the season last time out and Z with his good stuff is always fun to watch. It’s too bad the rest of the game was such a snoozer. Batters slugged only .181 against him that night. More importantly, he got the ground balls that had been missing from his previous starts.

    Prediction

    I think the Dodgers are probably the slightly better team, but I’ll take the Cubs to win both of the weekend games anyway.

    Berselius
    He's got a two day head start on you, which is more than he needs. He's got friends in every town and village from here to the Sudan, he speaks a dozen languages, knows every local custom, he'll blend in, disappear, you'll never see him again. With any luck, he's got the grail already.
    Berselius

    63 Responses to “Series Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles (10-10) at Chicago Cubs of Chicago (9-9)”

    1. 1 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Yeah, but every year there seems to be a reach pick that makes you scratch your head like Whitner, Heyward-Bey, Tyson Alualu, etc. Maybe that’s his reach prediction.[/quote]
      That’s true, but those guys were late first rounders that went in the early- to mid-first. This guy is a damn near carbon copy of a guy who went in the mid-third round LAST YEAR.

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    2. 2 Berselius says:

      Damn, I forgot to make a prediction that the Cubs would lose a game on 5,000 singles. Good thing Garza isn’t starting this series (dying laughing)

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    3. 3 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=Berselius]Good thin Garza isn’t starting this series (dying laughing)[/quote]
      What an odd nickname.

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    4. 4 Mucker says:

      [quote name=Jame Gumb]That’s true, but those guys were late first rounders that went in the early- to mid-first. This guy is a damn near carbon copy of a guy who went in the mid-third round LAST YEAR.[/quote]Yeah that’s a good point.

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    5. 5 Mucker says:

      Doesn’t Ethier always start out shit hot? Is the Dodgers RP really that bad?

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    6. 6 GBTS says:

      Billingsley was lights-out in his last start against the Cardinals. Today should be fun.

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    7. 7 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Berselius]Damn, I forgot to make a prediction that the Cubs would lose a game on 5,000 singles. Good thing Garza isn’t starting this series (dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing) that game still cracks me up. Didn’t they have 8 of them in a row? About an hour after I said they couldn’t keep doing it. (dying laughing)

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    8. 8 Berselius says:

      berselius ——–> finally got around to finishing The Wire last night. I loved season 5. It might be my favorite, though that could just be because I watched it most recently (dying laughing)

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    9. 9 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Yeah that’s a good point.[/quote]
      I do think senior QBs who are the most ready to play in the NFL will have added value because of the lack of a CBA right now. Dalton, Ponder, Locker and Stanzi have made themselves a bit of money thanks to the lockout…though Locker probably lost 8 figures by staying in school.

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    10. 10 Mucker says:

      [quote name=Berselius]berselius ——–> finally got around to finishing The Wire last night. I loved season 5. It might be my favorite, though that could just be because I watched it most recently (dying laughing)[/quote]Top 5 tv shows of all time. *Spoiler Alert* The only thing I hated was how Omar got it. But it just goes to show you that’s how badass he was that the only one who could have got to him was a little churn.

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    11. 11 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Top 5 tv shows of all time. *Spoiler Alert* The only thing I hated was how Omar got it. But it just goes to show you that’s how badass he was that the only one who could have got to him was a little churn.[/quote]
      At least we have a new Omar now.

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    12. 12 Berselius says:

      FWIW I liked Omar but never got into the whole Legend of Omar Little thing that seems pervasive among fans of the show.

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    13. 13 Mucker says:

      [quote name=Jame Gumb]I do think senior QBs who are the most ready to play in the NFL will have added value because of the lack of a CBA right now. Dalton, Ponder, Locker and Stanzi have made themselves a bit of money thanks to the lockout…though Locker probably lost 8 figures by staying in school.[/quote]Locker definitely lost a shit ton of money by staying. Aren’t they working on the rookie salaries and capping those?

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    14. 14 Berselius says:

      If the game is played, today’s lineup:

      Fukudome
      Barney
      Not Marlon Byrd (i.e. Castro)
      Ramirez
      Pena
      Byrd
      Soriano
      Soto
      Coleman

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    15. 15 Berselius says:

      Wells is throwing a bullpen session today at Wrigley.

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    16. 16 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Berselius]If the game is played, today’s lineup:

      Fukudome
      Barney
      Not Marlon Byrd (i.e. Castro)
      Ramirez
      Pena
      Byrd
      Soriano
      Soto
      Coleman[/quote]
      This displeases me.

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    17. 17 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Locker definitely lost a shit ton of money by staying. Aren’t they working on the rookie salaries and capping those?[/quote]
      That’s the rumor. Given that it was also the rumor last year, I was surprised more juniors and red-shirt sophomores didn’t declare for the 2010 draft.

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    18. 20 GBTS says:

      [quote name=Berselius]FWIW I liked Omar but never got into the whole Legend of Omar Little thing that seems pervasive among fans of the show.[/quote]If you Google “Omar”, Omar Little is the first result.

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    19. 21 Mucker says:

      [quote name=Berselius]At least we have a new Omar now.[/quote]
      Absolutely!! I thought that was awesome.

      [quote name=Berselius]FWIW I liked Omar but never got into the whole Legend of Omar Little thing that seems pervasive among fans of the show.[/quote]Omar definitely had his moments but yeah I hear what you are saying. Everybody loved the scene where he jumped out the window.

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    20. 22 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Locker definitely lost a shit ton of money by staying. Aren’t they working on the rookie salaries and capping those?[/quote]The definitely want to get rid of the slotting system for guaranteed money in the draft, a move which the players are resisting because for all but the very best players, that’s the only guaranteed money they will ever get from the skinflint owners.

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    21. 23 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Jame Gumb]http://www.capitol.state.tx.us/BillLookup/history.aspx?LegSess=82R&Bill=HB602

      Heads up, GW and b.[/quote]
      Sweet deal. I’ll have to do it once these legislature mandated days of prayer for rain are over (dying laughing).

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    22. 24 Mucker says:

      [quote name=Berselius]

      (dying laughing)

      http://www.nationalsenquirer.com/2011/04/nats-lose-series-tony-larussa-pinkeye.html/quoteHoly shit that’s hilarious. Doesn’t even look like LaRussa.

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    23. 25 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Omar definitely had his moments but yeah I hear what you are saying. Everybody loved the scene where he jumped out the window.[/quote]
      Yeah, that was nuts. When he was going around trying to call Marlo out after that I half-expected him to be gaming everyone with how seriously injured his leg was.

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    24. 26 Suburban kid says:

      [quote name=Berselius]If the game is played, today’s lineup:

      Fukudome
      Barney
      Not Marlon Byrd (i.e. Castro)
      Ramirez
      Pena
      Byrd
      Soriano
      Soto
      Coleman[/quote]
      Interesting how Byrd got demoted but Soriano and Soto still anchor the bottom of the order.

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    25. 27 Mucker says:

      [quote name=Berselius]Yeah, that was nuts. When he was going around trying to call Marlo out after that I half-expected him to be gaming everyone with how seriously injured his leg was.[/quote]Yeah, that whole battle between him and Marlo was nuts. I love how he would whistle “The Farmer and the Dell” walking down the street with a sawed off.

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    26. 28 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Suburban Kid]Interesting unsurprising how Byrd got demoted but Soriano and Soto still anchor the bottom of the order.[/quote].

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    27. 29 Berselius says:

      Was that Omar’s shotgun that Michael was using in his last scene? I didn’t get a good luck. I know a bunch of the hoppers took souveniers.

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    28. 30 Suburban kid says:

      [quote name=Berselius] Interesting unsurprising how The Byrdman! got demoted but Soriano and Soto still anchor the bottom of the order.[/quote].

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    29. 31 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=Berselius]Sweet deal. I’ll have to do it once these legislature mandated days of prayer for rain are over (dying laughing).[/quote]
      Can’t you do both?

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    30. 32 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Suburban Kid]Interesting how Byrd got demoted but Soriano and Soto still anchor the bottom of the order.[/quote]
      It’s because they’re lazy Latins who will only single when they should’ve had a double anyway.

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    31. 33 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Jame Gumb]Can’t you do both?[/quote]
      Heh, I also don’t have a working motor vehicle right now.

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    32. 34 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=Berselius]

      (dying laughing)

      http://www.nationalsenquirer.com/2011/04/nats-lose-series-tony-larussa-pinkeye.html/quote
      He just saw the forest gif.

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    33. 35 Mucker says:

      [quote name=Berselius]Was that Omar’s shotgun that Michael was using in his last scene? I didn’t get a good luck. I know a bunch of the hoppers took souveniers.[/quote]I asked that same question and nobody ever really knew. I always thought it was. Makes it that much better. Like a passing of the torch.

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    34. 36 Rice Cube says:

      http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/sports/cbsports-excub-silva-set-to-throw-bp-for-yankees-20110421,0,1101167.story

      And after he’s done, he’ll startthrow BP for the team they’re playing against, too.

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    35. 37 Mercurial Outfielder says:

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    36. 38 Mucker says:

      [quote name=Jame Gumb]That’s the rumor. Given that it was also the rumor last year, I was surprised more juniors and red-shirt sophomores didn’t declare for the 2010 draft.[/quote]I was too. I thought most underclassmen that were generating draft buzz would declare.

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    37. 39 ZappBrannigan says:

      Looks like LaRussa gouged his eye out after one too many TOOTBLANs

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    38. 40 mb21 says:

      I think Omar is the best tv character ever. Agent Dale Cooper is a close second.

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    39. 41 Berselius says:

      [quote name=mb21]I think Omar is the best tv character ever. Agent Dale Cooper is a close second.[/quote]
      I can think of three characters on that show alone that I would put over Omar – McNulty, Stringer Bell, and Bubbles.

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    40. 42 mb21 says:

      How pissed off would Cubs fans be if Carlos Zambrano did this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/13165880

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    41. 43 Berselius says:

      [quote name=mb21]How pissed off would Cubs fans be if Carlos Zambrano did this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/13165880/quote
      He’s not being paid all that money to hang around on balconies, MB.

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    42. 44 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Berselius]He’s not being paid all that money to hang around on balconies, MB.[/quote]
      (dying laughing)

      I see what you did there…

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    43. 45 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Berselius]I can think of three characters on that show alone that I would put over Omar – McNulty, Stringer Bell, and Bubbles.[/quote]I didn’t care much for Bubbles. Pretty much everyone knows he’s a CI and he’s still alive? McNulty was awesome in the first season, but by the end of the show I couldn’t even stand him. He started to get on my nerves like Lila did in season 2 of Dexter. Idris Elba was the perfect actor for Stringer.

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    44. 46 Berselius says:

      [quote name=mb21]I didn’t care much for Bubbles. Pretty much everyone knows he’s a CI and he’s still alive? McNulty was awesome in the first season, but by the end of the show I couldn’t even stand him. He started to get on my nerves like Lila did in season 2 of Dexter. Idris Elba was the perfect actor for Stringer.[/quote]
      I left Bunk off my list too. His reaction shots alone in season 5 are incredible (dying laughing).

      McNulty is an asshole but I liked where the show went with him over its run.

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    45. 47 mb21 says:

      I liked McNulty in season 2 also. I guess it was sometime in season 3 when I started to get annoyed with him. Overall a solid character that i thought should have left the show after season 3.

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    46. 48 Berselius says:

      The biggest laugh of the entire series was when they brought in the FBI guy to profile McNulty’s phony serial killer (dying laughing).

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    47. 49 mb21 says:

      One of my favorite scenes in the show is with McNulty and Bunk in season 1. An entire season where both of them just say Fuck and it ends with Bunk’s “fuckity fuckity fuck fuck fuck.”

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    48. 50 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Berselius]The biggest laugh of the entire series was when they brought in the FBI guy to profile McNulty’s phony serial killer (dying laughing).[/quote]I vaguely remember it, but the show was so unbelievable at that point. Paul Sullivan wouldn’t have been fooled and he’s retarded.

      Simon said that he was upset they didn’t get a full run in season 5 and they had to shorten things up. I’d like to have seen how season 5 went if they had 12 episodes.

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    49. 51 Berselius says:

      [quote name=mb21]I vaguely remember it, but the show was so unbelievable at that point. Paul Sullivan wouldn’t have been fooled and he’s retarded.

      Simon said that he was upset they didn’t get a full run in season 5 and they had to shorten things up. I’d like to have seen how season 5 went if they had 12 episodes.[/quote]
      The guy pretty much pegged McNulty. High functioning alcoholic, pissed off about his job, probably in law enforcement, white male in 30s-40s, etc. etc.

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    50. 52 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=mb21]I think JR Ewing is the best recent tv character ever. Agent Ed Norton is a close second.[/quote].

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    51. 53 mb21 says:

      Columbo.

      Enough said.

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    52. 54 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

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      Most amazing leaping cat ever!

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    53. 56 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

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    54. 57 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Berselius]The guy pretty much pegged McNulty. High functioning alcoholic, pissed off about his job, probably in law enforcement, white male in 30s-40s, etc. etc.[/quote]I was talking more about the general cluelessness of the media and the police. It was even more unbelievable than Hamsterdam. Paul Sullivan breaks both those stories wide open in the middle of a Cubs game while blogging about Soriano’s laziness.

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    55. 58 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      I didn’t know you were a dog, RC.

      The video cannot be shown at the moment. Please try again later.

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    56. 59 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      You have to put it on mute, but this is a rare case of a cop being awesome.

      The video cannot be shown at the moment. Please try again later.

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    57. 60 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Jame Gumb]You have to put it on mute, but this is a rare case of a cop being awesome.

      The video cannot be shown at the moment. Please try again later.



      Bet MB wants some of those in Kansas or wherever he is.

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    58. 61 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      Everyone wants some of those everywhere.

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    59. 62 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Jame Gumb]You have to put it on mute, but this is a rare case of a cop being awesome.

      The video cannot be shown at the moment. Please try again later.



      (dying motherfucking laughing), that was awesome.

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