Team Matchups
NL ranks in parens
| Cubs | Brewers | |
| wOBA | .316 (7th) | .322 (6th) |
| UBR | -11.6 (16th) | -3.6 (13th) |
| UZR | -17.7 (13th) | 4.7 (5th) |
| SP FIP | 4.07 (10th) | 3.71 (7th) |
| RP FIP | 4.05 (14th) | 3.65 (5th) |
It’s almost comical how bad the Cubs are at baserunning. There’s almost a win’s difference separating them from the Brewers, who are the 4th worst in the NL.
I’m surprised to see the Brewers grading out so well in defense. DRS has them at -5, but given the ZOMG CAN THE BREWERS WIN WITHOUT DEFENSE articles I feel like I’ve been seeing for the past month or so I would have expected it to be as awful as the Cubs.
Not surprisingly Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are leading the team in wOBA (.430 and .402, respectively). Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, and Nyjer Morgan are all chipping in to help cancel out the offensive black hole on the left side of their infield.
Probable Pitchers
Tuesday: Ryan Dempster, RHP (5.00, 3.70, 3.37, 3.57) vs Chris Narveson, LHP (4.45, 3.42, 3.56, 4.14), 7:10 PM CT
There was spirited debate in the comments yesterday (mostly originating from Mercurial Outfielder) about referring to luck in regards to Dempster’s season so far. So in deference to MO, we’ll just say that he’s just had shitty variance. He was hammered in his last start, lasting only three innings. In defense of MO, he is being hit slightly harder (20.1 % LD rate), and he’s seen a small drop in his ground ball rate. I’m fine with chalking it up to sequenceing and normal age based decline, and not some sudden drop off a cliff. It is nice to see that, relative to his awful start to the season, his HR rate has already normalized to right around his previous two years’ average.
Narveson is quietly having a nice year. He’s another pitcher in my Wandy Rodriguez Hall of Fame of pitchers who gave me a bad first impression that I always believe suck, no matter what the stats say. I’m blanking on who else is in this HOF even though I’ve mentioned it at least one or two other times in these previews (laughing).
Wednesday: Carlos Zambrano, RHP (4.70, 4.03, 4.21, 3.75) vs Zack Greinke, RHP (4.84, 3.03, 2.17, 2.82), 7:10 PM CT
Thanks to the All-Star break it feels like months ago when Z was on the DL. I couldn’t believe it when I checked his game log and saw that he’s only made two starts since being reinstated. Earlier in the season I was even more worried about the drop in his GB rate than the drop in his strikeout rate. While still lower than it should be, his GB rate has normalized somewhat, and now we just have his crummy strikeout rate to worry about. On the other hand, his walk rate his season is as low as it ever was in his prime.
I haven’t been following Greinke all that closely this year, so I’m surprised to see his ERA so high, especially considering his peripheral stats. He’s giving up even more line drives than Dempster (22%) and on top of that he’s given up a lot of HRs. Of course, the batters have to make contact with it first. He’s striking out 11+ per nine, and making players earn their bases with a 1.85 BB/9.
Thursday: Randy Wells, RHP (6.17, 5.23, 4.27, 4.04) vs Shaun Marcum, RHP (3.32, 3.66, 3.56, 3.41), 1:10 PM CT
Who knows what’s up with Wells? Last I heard his fastball was still down 3-4 MPH from last season, and I’m guessing his other pitches are suffering too. I’m waiting for there to be yet more injury news. After he put up another stinker of a start a few weeks back I was surprised at the amount of fan hate against Wells. He had a great rookie year and his peripherals were right in line with those numbers in his sophomore season, while racking up 194.1 innings. He’s been pants this year, not only with the velocity issues but also the probably correlated enormous jump in his walk rate.
Marcum is an extreme fly ball pitcher, so it’s no surprise that he has a low BABIP, but a .253 BABIP is pretty crazy. He’s seen a bump in his strikeout rate since moving to the NL, not surprisingly, but there hasn’t been much improvement on his career BB numbers after the move, which is somewhat surprising. He gives up a HR in almost every start, so I’ll be surprised if the Cubs go yard on him (dying laughing)
Prediction
Two out of three to the Cubs’s little brothers.
Scott Baker is first ballot in your HOF, b.
shitty variance (dying laughing)
Here’s the results from the Demographics survey
Age Percentage
25-39 60.1%
40-49 17.6%
18-24 13.3%
50 or older 8.5%
Under 18 0.5%
Gender
Percentage
Male 93.09%
Female 6.91%
No answer 0.00%
Where do you live?
Percentage
Chicagoland 42.55%
Midwest 24.47%
Eastern US 10.11%
Western US 9.57%
Southern US 7.98%
Outside of the great states of America 4.79%
Alaska, Hawaii… 0.53%
No answer 0.00%
What is the highest level of education you have completed?
Percentage
4-year degree 42.02%
Masters, Doctorate, or Professional Degree 38.83%
Some college 13.83%
High school or GED 2.66%
2-year or vocational degree 1.60%
Less than high school 1.06%
No answer 0.00%
Employment Status
Percentage
Unemployed 8.51%
Employed 88.30%
Disabled 1.06%
Total Hosuehold Income
Percentage
No answer 13.83%
$45,000 – $60,000 12.77%
$100,001 to $150,000 12.77%
More than $150,000 12.23%
$30,001 – $45,000 10.64%
$60,001 – $75,000 10.11%
$75,001 – $90,000 9.04%
$90,001 – $100,000 9.04%
Less than $15,000 5.85%
$15,001 – $30,000 3.72%
Race
Percentage
White 85.64%
No answer 5.32%
Hispanic or Latino 3.72%
Asian 3.19%
Black or African American 1.06%
Other 1.06%
If you were were stuck on an island with one person from Obstructed View, who would it be?
Percentage
Aisle 424 39.36%
mb21 30.32%
Berselius 21.81%
And Counting 6.91%
No answer 1.60%
Bubbles voted Berselius
Caesar with two doubles already
Aramis is hotter than shit… I wouldnt mind him coming back
So this site is midwestern, white male, educated, economically diverse, employed, and in love with Aisle?
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]So this site is midwestern, white male, educated, economically diverse, employed, and in love with Aisle?[/quote]Pretty much.
Castro! Saving a run with the glove.
Dempster is jsut so meh.. Why are we holding onto him if someone wants him
If Aramis wasn’t hitting this team would be #1 in the draft race
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Dempster is jsut so meh.. Why are we holding onto him if someone wants him[/quote]Because he’s still a really good pitcher? Just a thought.
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]If Aramis wasn’t hitting this team would be #1 in the draft race[/quote]That bastard!
With Zambrano, is it possible that he’s pitching more to contact instead of trying to strike him out? Hence the drop in his walk rate but increase in his shitty rate?
I missed these Statsy previews but I must admit that AC’s previews were pretty awesome.
[quote name=mb21]Because he’s still a really good pitcher? Just a thought.[/quote]
Is he really though?
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Is he really though?[/quote]Yes
Try looking at anything other than ERA: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Is he really though?[/quote]
It seems b has already established that Dempster has shitty variance.
(dying laughing) @ new comment message.
[quote name=Rice Cube](dying laughing) @ new comment message.[/quote]I think it was Josh who said that. (dying laughing)
but it’s true
MO, got any thoughts on who the Bears should be targeting in F.A.?
Muckey, I suppose it’s possible, but I think it’s unlikely.
[quote name=mb21]That bastard![/quote]If the rumors of signings are true, I am way less upset at the Cubs’ reverse-tanking.
Also known as winning. (dying laughing)
I mean he seems to get hit around quite a lot. And even if he was a great starter (hes not) he has a pretty big salary next year and he might be able to fetch something if he is what you say he is
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]I mean he seems to get hit around quite a lot. And even if he was a great starter (hes not) he has a pretty big salary next year and he might be able to fetch something if he is what you say he is[/quote]Nobody said he’s great, but if you trade every non-great starting pitcher or every non-great player, teams have a player, maybe two on their roster and MLB demands each roster have 25 players.
His BABIP is way higher than the last few years. Take a look at every other starter on the Cubs with 30 or more innings. Same thing. Defense sucks fucking ass. I’m certain I could lay on a beach towel and be better than 85% of the players the Cubs have on defense.
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]If Aramis wasn’t hitting this team would be #1 in the draft race[/quote]
That lazy prick just won’t help the Cubs with ANYTHING
I couldn’t decide if Champaign was “Chicagoland” or Midwest. I think I decided on Midwest, even though by train it takes me about the same amount of time to get downtown as it did when I lived in Mt. Prospect.
Demp would have additional value since there are basically no SP on the market other than Jiminez
[quote name=mb21]I think it was Josh who said that. (dying laughing)[/quote]This is my 15 minutes
[quote name=Lukas]That lazy prick just won’t help the Cubs with ANYTHING[/quote]
I take that back, he’s not lazy, he’s just selfish. Or maybe both………fuck it I don’t know, he’s just not a good man.
[quote name=Berselius]Demp would have additional value since there are basically no SP on the market other than Jiminez[/quote]That’s a good point, but the Cubs are going to try and contend and since there aren’t any options on the free agent market to replace him, I don’t see any reason to trade him.
Nice bunt (dying laughing)
He also more than likely won’t accept a trade anyway. Of all the people on the Cubs, I’m pretty sure he won’t accept one because of his daughter.
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Bubbles voted Berselius[/quote]
Me too. I hate everyone (dying laughing)
[quote name=Berselius]Demp would have additional value since there are basically no SP on the market other than Jiminez[/quote]I just wish the Cubs would do something. Even a few even swaps would inject some new blood into the team. I know that in the end it probably won’t matter, but I’m kind of sick of seeing these same guys lose and lose and lose.
Wow the demographic results are really surprising. No, they’re not.
so why do a bunch of educated affluent white males hate AndCounting so much?
The Asian contingent doesn’t mind AndCounting (dying laughing)
Also, you rich fuckers need to buy more OV shit from the OV shop.
(dying laughing) the brewers announcers just said Byrd was the Cubs most patient hitter.
[quote name=mb21]He also more than likely won’t accept a trade anyway. Of all the people on the Cubs, I’m pretty sure he won’t accept one because of his daughter.[/quote]
There is no fucking way he accepts a trade. I’ll pitch for the Cubs before he gets traded.
[quote name=Aisle424]There is no fucking way he accepts a trade. I’ll pitch for the Cubs before he gets traded.[/quote]
Do you have shitty variance?
[quote name=Berselius]Me too. I hate everyone (dying laughing)[/quote]I voted Aisle 424. i figured he could create some funny pictures on his laptop so I’d be entertained.
[quote name=Aisle424]Also, you rich fuckers need to buy more OV shit from the OV shop.[/quote]No doubt. I’m thinking a half dozen shirts, some coffee mugs, send us each a couple thousand and so on.
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate](dying laughing) the brewers announcers just said Byrd was the Cubs most patient hitter.[/quote]It’s an easy mistake to make. You’ve got Pena who has a great eye along with Soto, but he’s having a shitty year. Then you’ve got Marlon. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Aisle424]There is no fucking way he accepts a trade. I’ll pitch for the Cubs before he gets traded.[/quote]I don’t think you’d want to do that. That defense is going to make you a lot worse than you really are.
Looks like Narveson is done after some shitty variance.
That should have been a double play. Way to go, Casey.
[quote name=mb21]I don’t think you’d want to do that. That defense is going to make you a lot worse than you really are.[/quote]
That’s true. None of them are 30 feet tall to catch the shots that would be landing on Waveland.
WGN needs to play Yakkity Sax over the Cubs trying to score, not Len and Bob eating brats.
[quote name=Rice Cube]That should have been a double play. Way to go, Casey.[/quote]
Redemption!
I voted for A424 because I’ll be honest, at that point I wasn’t sure which one of you was which. I’m starting to see the differences now.
(dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]I voted Aisle 424. i figured he could create some funny pictures on his laptop so I’d be entertained.[/quote]I voted for you because I honestly thought no one else would. (dying laughing)
[quote name=josh]I voted for A424 because I’ll be honest, at that point I wasn’t sure which one of you was which. I’m starting to see the differences now.[/quote]
I’m the awesome one.
WGN is actually advertising Prince Fielder leading the Brewers to the playoffs to help get people to watch these dreadful Cubs games.
[quote name=josh]I voted for A424 because I’ll be honest, at that point I wasn’t sure which one of you was which. I’m starting to see the differences now.[/quote]
That’s because you haven’t seen them in their wolf moon tees.
[quote name=Aisle424]I’m the awesome one.[/quote]
I voted for Berselius, as his Futurama references are the finest and most numerous. However, A424 was a close second.
[quote name=josh]I voted for A424 because I’ll be honest, at that point I wasn’t sure which one of you was which. I’m starting to see the differences now.[/quote]
I’m the dead one in shades.
LaTroy Hawkins still pisses me off.
[quote name=Aisle424]LaTroy Hawkins still pisses me off.[/quote]
Don’t worry, he doesn’t want to be on the island with you either.
[quote name=Aisle424]I’m the dead one in shades.
I hope no one asks Tom Petty that question.
It’s surprising how well Prince Fielder can move sometimes.
God damn you suck, Jeff Samardzija.
I turned the game off when the Cubs had the bases loaded with nobody out. I figured they were about to fuck up another loss (dying laughing). Turns out they fucked up in another way.
65-year-old Craig Counsell is about to draw a walk.
Counsell is done, I think. It had to happen eventually.
To be fair, Jeff hasn’t done anything wrong. I just don’t like him.
[quote name=Rice Cube]65-year-old Craig Counsell is about to draw a walk.[/quote]
Shut me right up.
[quote name=josh]Counsell is done, I think. It had to happen eventually.
To be fair, Jeff hasn’t done anything wrong. I just don’t like him.[/quote]
I think it might have something to do with the fact that he looks like a mix between a French musketeer and a Klingon.
He looks like that first guy you fight in Punch Out.
[quote name=Mish]I voted for you because I honestly thought no one else would. (dying laughing)[/quote]I figure since it’s 93% male I was aiming for 7% of the vote.
Here’s something to consider.
6.91% female
6.91% voted to be on the island with AC.
Chicks dig him.
[quote name=josh]He looks like that first guy you fight in Punch Out.[/quote]
Glass Joe?
So Jeff strikes out the side. FINE!
Yeah Glass Joe or maybe the french guy.
[quote name=mb21]
6.91% female
6.91% voted to be on the island with AC.
Chicks dig him.[/quote]
He’s married, Mom.
[quote name=josh]He looks like that first guy you fight in Punch Out.[/quote]
Glass Joe? Let’s find out…
Hmmm…maybe he looks more like Don Flamenco:
[quote name=Aisle424]He’s married, Mom.[/quote]Better not tell his wife that all the ladies want to be on an island alone with him.
One of you guys better at Photoshop than I should try to put a Klingon prosthetic forehead on JefF7′s head.
Don Flamenco looks like Adam Sandler
[quote name=mb21]Better not tell his wife that all the ladies want to be on an island alone with him.[/quote]
Maybe some votes came from his secret Canadian family
[quote name=mb21]Don Flamenco looks like Adam Sandler[/quote]
I was thinking Inspector Gadget, but I can see Sandler too.
I feel like Flamenco reminds me of someone, but can’t figure out who it is. I’m probably just remembering Don Flamenco though (dying laughing)
It’s been a while since we’ve seen a funny gif. BRING IT.
Is it just me or does that strike zone seem abnormally large tonight?
Although the video of the people falling to their death in that flash-flood? Hilarious.
I meant Counsell looks like Glass Joe.
[quote name=josh]I meant Counsell looks like Glass Joe.[/quote]
That makes more sense (dying laughing)
When he strikes out he almost does the same motion like when you knock out Glass Joe. Ah, 8-bit awesomeness.
[quote name=Rice Cube]That makes more sense (dying laughing)
When he strikes out he almost does the same motion like when you knock out Glass Joe. Ah, 8-bit awesomeness.[/quote]You hear him make that noise to, if you have the good seats.
If I grew facial hair that looked like F7′s, I would probably just go clean shaven. That’s a pathetic attempt at a mustache.
[quote name=Berselius]
[/quote]
Love it.
My most used gif
Chase Utley > Barry Zito
http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?c_id=phi&content_id=17305657&topic_id=8877956
bour has 21 hr’s in the FSL. Move him up
Campana is stupid fast
D-Lee 4-5, HR
[quote name=Berselius]Campana is stupid fast[/quote]If he was full time, I wonder if he’d be an Alcides Escobar, all D and speed, not ability to hit at all. But I’m worried he’d only be good in the range aspect of fielding.
Ugh. Eff. I tried to post a gif but it didn’t work. I pasted in the link — what am I doing wrong?
[quote name=Steve Swisher]Ugh. Eff. I tried to post a gif but it didn’t work. I pasted in the link — what am I doing wrong?[/quote]
What’s the link?
This:
Or this:
[any link I put in with a href=... disappears]
[quote name=Steve Swisher]This:
This is what Tom Ricketts was thinking on the train:
You need to right-click on the image and copy the image URL to paste into the Image tool.
Now you’ve got it.
Actually, this is Tom Ricketts reading our site:
[quote name=ACT]D-Lee 4-5, HR[/quote]We don’t need D Lee. We have Carlos Pena. He’s slightly more valuable.
[quote name=Muckey]MO, got any thoughts on who the Bears should be targeting in F.A.?[/quote]Word is that they are going to make a strong push for Cullen Jenkins. I think he’s a bad fit for Lovie’s D, but what do I know. After that, I think they need to look at signing a WR, preferably one of Edwards, Breaston, Jackson, or Holmes. After that, a veteran interior lineman who has positional flexibility, like Cook or Dockery.
And Counting sees the results of the island poll:
I agree. But I’m still following D-Lee because I like him.
[quote name=josh]If he was full time, I wonder if he’d be an Alcides Escobar, all D and speed, not ability to hit at all. But I’m worried he’d only be good in the range aspect of fielding.[/quote]Where are people getting this idea that Campana is anything other than horrible on defense?
[quote name=Aisle424]You need to right-click on the image and copy the image URL to paste into the Image tool.[/quote]
Thanks!
[quote name=derp]Where are people getting this idea that Campana is anything other than horrible on defense?[/quote]I don’t know. Surely he can run down some fly balls right? WHAT THE HELL IS ON A MAJOR LEAGUE CLUB FOR IF HE CAN’T PLAY?!?!?
It’s all right, I’m not crying! Fucking Cubs.
[quote name=derp]Where are people getting this idea that Campana is anything other than horrible on defense?[/quote]He had a solid reputation from minor league scouts. The only flaw in his defensive game that I’ve seen thus far is the fact that he can’t throw ball more than 30 feet on the fly.
[quote name=josh]I don’t know. Surely he can run down some fly balls right? WHAT THE HELL IS ON A MAJOR LEAGUE CLUB FOR IF HE CAN’T PLAY?!?!?
It’s all right, I’m not crying! Fucking Cubs.[/quote]
In theory, but he takes some horrible routes to balls, so he needs every ounce of his speed to make up for it.
[quote name=Aisle424]In theory, but he takes some horrible routes to balls, so he needs every ounce of his speed to make up for it.[/quote]Which he’ll learn…..because he’s young?
[quote name=derp]Where are people getting this idea that Campana is anything other than horrible on defense?[/quote]
Scouts raved about his defense in the minors, apparently.
[quote name=josh]Which he’ll learn…..because he’s young?[/quote]
I guess. That seems more like an instinct thing, though. You either know how a ball comes off a bat and about how far it is going to travel, or you don’t.
Maybe that’s not true, but it is the only part of my game that I do well, so I expect every major leaguer to be able to do it.
Cubs —> #2 pick again
[quote name=Aisle424]I guess. That seems more like an instinct thing, though. You either know how a ball comes off a bat and about how far it is going to travel, or you don’t.
Maybe that’s not true, but it is the only part of my game that I do well, so I expect every major leaguer to be able to do it.[/quote]Aaron Rowand disagrees.
(dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
Submitted without comment: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0727-cubs-brewers-chicago–20110727,0,873608.story
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Submitted without comment: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0727-cubs-brewers-chicago–20110727,0,873608.story/quoteWe won three in a row. Forty more of those, and we are right back in it.
[quote name=josh]We won three in a row. Forty more of those, and we are right back in it.[/quote]
Indeed, because every other team in the NL Central is just going to collapse in fear of the mighty Cubs charge.
From the wife:
New OV Pic of the Day: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/ov-pic-of-the-day-thus-endeth-the-winning-streak.html