It’s too bad the Cubs didn’t lose last night, because this series could have easily pushed the losing streak to thirteen. Of course, despite that we’ll probably see the Cubs win the series by beating both Halladay and Lee and suddenly think they’re contenders, trading Brett Jackson and Trey Mcnutt in a three-team deal to acquire Veterans Who Know How To Win™ Joe Saunders and Edwin Jackson to shore up the rotation.
Team Overviews
Team stats and NL ranks
| Cubs | Phillies | |
| wOBA | .318 (5th) | .309 (10th) |
| UBR | -6.9 (16th) | -0.5 (9th) |
| UZR | -11.8 (14th) | -7.3 (12th) |
| SP FIP | 4.10 (13th) | 2.77 (1st) |
| RP FIP | 4.15 (16th) | 3.76 (10th) |
These numbers surprise me a bit. Everyone knows about Philly’s starting pitching surplus (to put it mildly) but I would have expected the rest of their numbers to be much better, especially the offense. They’re definitely missing Jayson Werth and Chase Utley (who is sort-of back now), but other lineup mainstays like Ryan Howard (.343 wOBA) and Jimmy Rollins (.325 wOBA) aren’t doing that well themselves. When Shane Victorino is leading your team in hitting after two months your offense has problems.
Pitching Matchups
Thursday: Randy Wells, RHP (5.74, 5.17, 3.99, 3.89) vs Kyle Kendrick, RHP (3.78, 4.74, 5.07, 4.52), 6:05 PM CT, WGN
I was surprised to see Wells’s FIP number so high, but since I’ve missed all of his starts this year all I remember about his season is that he’s been striking out a lot of batters. That’s nice for your FIP, but giving up three HRs in three starts is not.
Kendrick is not a great pitcher by any means, but given my imperfect memory and the trashing he gets from the Phillies bloggers I follow on twitter I thought he was much closer to being a replacement level pitcher than he is. He’s a decent groundball pitcher who doesn’t strike anyone out. He’s had some luck with BABIP this year but given the number of grounders he gives up that should change.
Friday: Carlos Zambrano, RHP (3.98, 3.57, 4.11, 3.56) vs Roy Halladay, RHP (2.56, 2.21, 2.38, 2.69), 6:05 PM CT, CSN
I’m guessing that Z is going to lose this game 1-0 and somehow be blamed for it. This should be a quick game.
Saturday: Matt Garza, RHP (4.07, 2.20, 2.57, 3.68) vs Cliff Lee, LHP (3.62, 2.59, 2.50, 2.69), 3:10 PM CT, FOX
Garza was not particularly sharp in his return from the disabled list, striking out only three while walking three and giving up a home run in four innings to the Reds. However, he’s still continuing his odd trend of generating tons of groundballs. Maybe Riggins is good for something after all?
Lee has pitched incredibly well this season, and like Garza his ERA-FIP difference is largely due to a large BABIP. He’s been walking a few more batters than usual this year but given the huge jump in his strikeout rate it’s nothing for the Phillies to be concerned about.
Sunday: Doug Davis, RHP (6.38, 3.48, 4.22, 4.22) vs Roy Oswalt, RHP (3.05, 3.42, 3.86, 3.27), 12:35 PM CT, WGN
I’m surprised to see Davis’s FIP so low. It’s mostly due to the fact that all the runs that score from the mountian of walks he issues are off of base hits (.370 BABIP) as opposed to home runs. The Cubs are probably stuck with Davis as the fifth starter at this point, as who the hell else is going to pitch any better at this point?
Oswalt has seen a HUGE drop in his strikeout rate this season. To his credit he has gotten a lot more groundballs and limited the number of fly balls that leave the park, but that has to be a big cause for concern. In his last five starts he hasn’t struck out more than three batters. The Cubs should be good for whatever ails him in that department.
Prediction
Phils take three of four
Comments
[quote name=Mish]KG
Matt Szczur, OF, Cubs (Low-A Peoria): 4-for-5, R, 4 RBI, CS. 11-for-24 in last six games and .345/.402/.462 since OV’s Jame Gumb called him out.[/quote].
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Phillies sweep.
I hope Chase Utley is fun to watch; basically was my favorite player the last 6 years or so.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]I hope Chase Utley is fun to watch; basically was my favorite player the last 6 years or so.[/quote]
Hey, that’s a really cool story, bro.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Hey, that’s a really cool story, bro.[/quote]
eh, it could go either way.
MishQuote Reply
None of you Badgerfags (or even (Big 10+2)fags) have mentioned Russell Wilson transfering to Wisconsin.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]eh, it could go either way.[/quote]
Typical Chase Utley fan.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb]None of you Badgerfags (or even (Big 10+2)fags) have mentioned Russell Wilson transfering to Wisconsin.[/quote]
berselius ——–> doesn’t pay much attention to offseason CFB (dying laughing). If it’s true that would be great but we already know from the aborted Allen Everidge era that transfer QBs never ever work out
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]If it’s true that would be great but we already know from the aborted Allen Everidge era that transfer QBs never ever work out[/quote]
Cam Newton says, “Your rong.”
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Jame Gumb] “Your rong.”[/quote]
This is what most Chinese FOBs say about my wiener length.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]This is what most Chinese fagets say about my wiener length.[/quote].
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Great googly moogly
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTTwcCVajAc
Great umm…. googly umm…. moogly ummm……..[/quote]
/emotional
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]
Great googly moogly[/quote]
(dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
If she gets that emotional whenever she “hears a cat”…
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
I didn’t do a preview of the last series because I was thinking about cats.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I didn’t do a preview of the last series because I was thinking about cats.[/quote]
Think there’s no answer? You’re so stupid!
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]
Great googly moogly[/quote]I get it, it’s fake right? Is this a metaphor for the Cubs season?
joshQuote Reply
[quote name=Josh]I get it, it’s fake right? Is this a metaphor for the Cubs season?[/quote]
It would be awesomely hilarious if the Cubs sucked because they were thinking about cats again.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]It would be awesomely hilarious if the Cubs were fired from their paper routes because they were thinking about horses again.[/quote]
Hawked.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Great googly moogly[/quote]
Dude, that’s my girlfriend you’re making fun of.
We have 2 or 288 cats.
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]Dude, that’s my girlfriend you’re making fun of.
We have 2 or 288 cats.[/quote]
Hilarious. Good luck with your girlfriend.
Aisle424Quote Reply
So I told my friend that I was pissed that the Twins are doing worse than the Cubs because I want the Cubs to have the #1 overall. He responds saying the #1 overall usually doesn’t mean anything. A quick glance over of the #1 overall picks shows that over half were at one time all-stars. I won this battle, but this obviously isn’t the best indicator though.
I remember seeing an article or graph showing the picks throughout the rounds and their WAR. Does anyone remember this?
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Hilarious. Good luck with your girlfriend.
[/quote]
We have a friend that is obsessed with cats. I’m not sure if she cries like the person above, but she does have a cat fortress at her house. She also drinks at least a gallon of milk a day, no joke. I’m pretty sure that is beyond the recommended daily intake of dairy (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]So I told my friend that I was pissed that the Twins are doing worse than the Cubs because I want the Cubs to have the #1 overall. He responds saying the #1 overall usually doesn’t mean anything. A quick glance over of the #1 overall picks shows that over half were at one time all-stars. I won this battle, but this obviously isn’t the best indicator though.
I remember seeing an article or graph showing the picks throughout the rounds and their WAR. Does anyone remember this?[/quote]
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/analyzing-the-mlb-draft-using-war/
I found it thru this post:
http://www.anothercubsblog.net/2010-articles/february/mlb-draft-and-war.html
MishQuote Reply
MishQuote Reply
Awesome, exactly what I was looking for. Thanks.
WaLiQuote Reply
i missed the 2 or 288 meme. whats the story there?
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]i missed the 2 or 288 meme.[/quote]
Or you didn’t. It could go either way.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]i missed the 2 or 288 meme. whats the story there?[/quote]
http://tinyurl.com/3v2uvo5
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]
[/quote]Yargh! This is why the Cubs needed a firesale! Attendance is flagging; the team is sucking — these things happened anyway! Why not just have fire?! Sale.
BradleyWoodrumQuote Reply
I encourage a fire, with or without a sale.
MishQuote Reply
So is this the same as “my bad”
At least we own the bad.
FullyKraeusenedQuote Reply
[quote name=FullyKraeusened]
At least we own the bad.[/quote]
Yes, but who is the Executive Chairman?
BerseliusQuote Reply
New opposition viewpoint and game thread up: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/phil-rogers-is-still-wrong-because-he-has-to.html
Aisle424Quote Reply