When the Cubs visited Houston a month ago, the Astros were a few games below .500 and the buzz around the team was relatively positive. Few Astros fans expected the team to be very good, but they were outperforming expectations and were at least watchable. The new, saber-inclined management stole Jed Lowrie from the Red Sox in a reverse Ed Wade move, trading an overvalued Veteran Reliever for solid young talent, and 2B Jose Altuve has been doing Starlin Castro-y things though at a less premium position. They've still got the decomposing remains of Carlos Lee and a farm system full of tumbleweeds, but it was nice for the fans to see things going their way for a little while at least. After sweeping the Cubs, they beat the Dodgers to push them a game below .500, and promptly reeled off a eight game losing streak to start a 11-21 run to arrive at their current record.
Team Overviews
NL ranks in parentheses
| Astros | Cubs | |
| wOBA | .309 (10th) | .297 (14th) |
| BSR | -3.8 (14th) | 3.1 (3rd) |
| UZR | -4.3 (10th) | 3.7 (8th) |
| DRS | -23 (14th) | +8 (4th) |
| SP FIP | 4.33 (14th) | 4.12 (11th) |
| RP FIP | 4.34 (14th) | 4.75 (16th) |
Biweekly Cubs bullpen suckage update: not only have the Cubs extended their lead over the Jays for the worst pen in baseball, they've actually been lucky. The bullpen xFIP is 5.07 against a FIP of 4.75. Cubs relievers are walking five batters per nine innings.
Position players
There aren't many teams out there who have their two best offensive performers in the middle infield. Altuve and Lowrie have combined to be worth about 20 runs above average (without positional adjustment!), far and away better than the rest of the team. Unfortunately they've had plenty of replacement level performance from everyone else, though only utilityman Matt Downs has been significantly below replacement level. Chris Snyder, who was very underrated with the Snakes and was pushed out by the even better Montero has been disappointing with the Astros, posting a .266 wOBA this year, and C Jason Castro hasn't been much better. Whither Astros legend J.R. Towles?
Pitching Matchups
ERA, FIP, xFIP, ZiPS FIP in parens
Friday: Bud Norris, RHP (4.81, 3.94, 3.70, 3.98) vs Paul Maholm, LHP (5.38, 4.93, 4.49, 4.28), 1:20 PM CT
Saturday: J. A. Happ, LHP (4.83, 4.26, 3.86, 4.55) vs Matt Garza, RHP (4.06, 4.00, 3.54, 3.64), 3:05 PM CT
Sunday: Wandy Rodriguez, LHP (3.52, 3.98, 3.93, 3.99) vs Travis Wood, LHP (3.54, 4.92, 4.36, 4.15), 1:20 PM CT
My first reaction to seeing this slate of pitchers was that all those lefty starters would be good for the Cubs offense. Then I remembered that the Cubs replacement-level righty lineup has been awful this year. I think the Cubs are -5 and 12 against lefty starters this year.
Norris is having a much lousier season than I remember, results-wise. A big part of it was a nine run shellacking that occured in Colorado a few weeks ago. He followed that up by striking out twelve Cardinals in six innings. He was pulled in the 4th inning of his last start, against the Giants, but had only given up three runs at that point. Speaking of short outings and getting shelled, Paul Maholm hit a two run homer against the Dbacks then promptly gave three times that amount back to them, walking three and striking out no one. At least Maholm is in familiar territory after so many years in Pittsburgh.
I can't wait for J.A. Happ to shut down the Cubs, save for an extra base hit or two by Soriano. He's not walking as many batters this year, which has transformed him from a crappy pitcher to a merely okayish one. Garza hasn't been quite the shutdown pitcher that he was to start the season (and last year), but he's managed to post five straight quality starts averaging six strikeouts and one walk in each. Gopherballs have been his problem this year, despite his newfound ground ball rate.
When I'm looking for something to write in the offseason I need to remember to finally bring together a post that elects members to my Wandy Rodriguez Hall of Fame of pitcher who were awful when I first saw them but went on to have great careers. Every time the Cubs lose to Wandy it feels like they're losing to the replacement level soft tossing gopherball machine that he was back in 2005. He'll face off with the New Cubs Ace, according to whoeverthefuck in the Chicago media. Wood dominated the Mets in his last outing, and aside from getting shelled by the Padres when the wind was howling out of Wrigley he's had a good year.
Will there be a game today? The weather basically shows thunderstorms for the next three days.
It looks like there’s a decent sized window after this system comes through.
I’m usually very surprised when teams cancel games for rain, since it’s such a pain for them logistically (and they lose money on concessions, etc). It does always make me laugh how Yellon always seems to assume a game will be delayed or canceled if a single fucking drop of rain falls three hours before game time (dying laughing). Storms move.
@ Berselius:
I assumed since it was an early start they’d find a way to get it in. My guess is that the weather site I was looking at was just being lazy about when the system would move through.
@ josh:
They expect to get it in, plus I don’t think they would be able to squeeze in a double header with tomorrow’s wonky start time.
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, and there’s a chance for rain tomorrow too. The only times I’ve seen them cancel a game that was going to start this early is after hours of rain when it is basically impossible to make the field safe.
Aisle424 wrote:
thats a cloud question, bro
@ GW:
(dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
For MO
http://www.theonion.com/articles/bill-simmons-releases-2000page-book-exploring-how,28666/
Classy.
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/29/buck-showalter-pranks-darren-oday/
(dying laughing)…Buck Showalter is an ass
@ Berselius:
(dying laughing)
This is the most exciting Cubs game I’ve seen all year. They should just show this game instead of the other Cubs games the rest of the year. I’d probably watch.
It doesn’t matter how many times I’ve seen these strikeouts, I get goosebumps and giddy every time I watch them.
That swing by Ausmus in the 8th inning may very well have been the single worst swing in baseball history. The best part? He takes the next pitch down the middle.
@ Aisle424:
That was flagrant. That guy should be in jail.
@ mb21:
I take it they’re showing Kerry Wood’s 20K game?
Randy Wells ———> Iowa
Berselius ———> surprised no one claimed him, still overrating Randy Wells (dying laughing)
Though I guess it’s not that surprising, given that he’s not making league minimum
mb21 wrote:
Then I get depressed.
@ Berselius:
Yeah, but it was only $2.7MM or whatever remained of the salary. I guess he showed that he sucked so much that nobody wanted to take on a relatively small salary. I also thought he couldn’t be reassigned until 10 full days were up?
Posted this as an aside: http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/teams-see-alfonso-soriano-as-dh.html
szczur and candelario made the hot sheet. Szczur at #1
@ Aisle424:
That usually comes when I’m thinking about how good he could be. Watching that game just makes me enjoy baseball. I lived in Scottsdale at the time and by the end of that game there were 3 or 4 non-baseball fans in my apartment glued to that game as much as I was. I’ve never seen any of my non-baseball friends care as much about a game before that and I haven’t since. That was one of those games that non-fans can appreciate. The pure dominance that Wood displayed was impressive to anyone. the closest thing I’ve seen since that was Sammy Sosa’s June in 1998. I’ll never forget Rockies manager Jim Leyland talking about how you couldn’t pitch to Sosa or he’d hit 2 home runs. It certainly seemed like that in that month.
@ Rice Cube:
They just have 10 days to figure it out. If some team did happen to claim him on waivers or they were going to release him they could use that time to work out a trade.
Nice eye from Rizzo there
1998 was such a great season. It’s like everything conspired in that year to make me spend thousands of dollars on the Cubs in the coming years for no reason.
@ Aisle424:
Yeah, but you should have known by 1999. (dying laughing)
Cubs good times don’t happen often and when they do, they don’t last long either.
@ bubblesdachimp:
That one pitch should have been strike 3, but still a good eye. Got lucky in that PA, but it will help him down the road.
@ mb21:
You have to Savor Every Moment while you can.
@ mb21:
agree 100%
Man, when Valbuena actually hits something he hits it far
Jim Callis @jimcallisBA
#Cubs sign 3rd-rder Ryan McNeil for $425k (pick value=$471,900). Calif HS RHP has 90-93 FB, athleticism, flashes solid slider. #mlbdraft
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/06/29/its-official-the-dodgers-sign-yasiel-puig-for-seven-years-42-million/
so the dodgers have finalized the puig deal, but soler, who defected approximately three years ago, still hasn’t been announced?
TOOTBLAN
@ GW: Cubs being Cubs.
mb21 wrote:
They really would have to pay all but $2M of the remaining salary? That seems like bullshit.
He’s already worth .8 rWAR in less than half a season, so let’s just say he’s worth .7 WAR the rest of the way for a total of 1.5.
Then take it down to 1 in 2013 and .5 in 2014. All of that value is in his bat, and I actually think he can exceed projections since he changed his bat weight and it actually seems to have been the key to his becoming a somewhat useful bat again. So he’s owed $42M and he’d provide a new team around 2.2 WAR over the next 2.5 years. That’s more than $10M in production that I think is conservative.
if they pay all but $2M, they better get a real prospect in return and not the Mike Fontenot, Blake DeWitt-type chum we’ve gotten for other veterans.
People have searched for “ekg explanation” and came here. (dying laughing)
@ mb21:
They must know that this blog is as serious as a heart attack
Shit, Fangraphs and ZIPs has Soriano projected to get 1 WAR the rest of the way for a total of 3.1.
Even if you project him at 2 WAR next season and all the way down to 1 WAR in 2014, according to fangraphs, teams are only willing to way $2M for 4 WAR of production? Fuck that shit. I’d rather they just kept him and get whatever piece of crap they’d get in return for DeJesus to clear an OF spot.
Aisle424 wrote:
I really don’t know. Here’s what I wrote a couple weeks ago when I looked at his trade value:
If teams view him as a DH, that’s 1 less win over the next 2 years and about .3 less wins this year. So about 1.3 fewer wins or close to $8 million less in value. My guess is that they will have to send all but a few million to get a deal done, but I wouldn’t bet any money on that.
Aisle424 wrote:
Trading DeJesus would bring more in return and DeJesus wouldn’t bring much. Trading Soriano is more about just getting rid of him than it is about getting anything in return. The question is, do the Cubs care that much about getting rid of him? To their credit (under Hendry and Theo) they have not. Most of the fans will complain though.
What team is this, hitting balls over fences/
LaHair with the 3-0 green light
mb21 wrote:
Fuck the fans who don’t like Soriano. I hated his contract from the minute he signed it, but he has done nothing but try his best since he got here. He takes all the shit the media gives him without hardly blinking. everybody talks about what a hero Dawson was for going out and playing everyday on his knees (including me) and they completely ignore that Soriano has been doing almost exactly that for longer with this team and everybody hates him. I’m so fed up with the Soriano hate. I think he’s my new favorite Cub.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I think every hitter should have the 3-0 greenlight. It’s often the best pitch they’ll see that day.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
@ Aisle424:
Interesting. I’d never thought of the Dawson comparison. Not only has Soriano been better (quite a bit better actually), he’s done it in just as much pain. The difference? Dawson handed the Cubs a check for ONE year while the cubs handed Soriano a check.
@ Aisle424:
That’s expensive water.
@ Aisle424:
That’s cheap wine.
I don’t not read nevery word.
Aisle424 wrote:
Love love love.
Steve Clevenger’s follow-through —–> Awfully reminiscent of Jim Edmonds’s.
I’m saying, HOF.
@ Aisle424:
well said.
Wow. I thought that ball was gone.
@ josh:
Stop dissing Luis Valbuena.
@ Suburban kid:
Solo homers are for losers.
@ mb21:
I’d only give them the green light sometimes (depending on the hitter, score, etc.). There’s a game theory element that would have to be studied there.
Dawson had 18.1 fWAR in 5 seasons as a Cub, Soriano has 17.6 in 4.5 seasons. Nice comp, Tim!
@ Suburban kid:
Best 3B Cubs have had since Santo!
LAZY LATIN STAT-PADDING SORRYANOMER!
Doing!
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I don’t want to take the option to swing out of the batter’s hands. As long as pitchers are going to groove 3-0 pitches down the middle at the rate they do I don’t want to put a hitter at a disadvantage by forcing him to not swing at that pitch. Not giving a red light doesn’t mean I’m telling the batter to swing. I’m telling him if it’s HIS pitch then go for it.
Fucking suck it, haters. Soriano is doing this on no legs.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
They were pretty similar players toward the end of their careers. Corner outfielders who had power, low on-base %, bad knees, and lots of assists.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
However, I should add that Sori’s fWAR contains some unrealistic UZR numbers.
mb21 wrote:
If you want pitchers to keep grooving pitches, it’s a good idea to give the hitter the red light sometimes. Also, if batters swing at too many borderline pitches, I have no problem telling them not to swing.
Just watched the replay, I love the catcher’s reaction on Soriano’s homerun. That’s one for the books.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
TZ. UZR only goes as far back as the stringer provided data, right?
EDIT: NVM, I’m an idiot. I thought you were talking about Hawk
@ GW:
I meant Soriano. I edited it.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
You’re going to get guys like Castro swinging at pitches over his head if you greenlight every 3-0.
Also, if you have a huge lead, of course you red light the hitter. The hitter might be a dumbass like Javier Baez and get himself plunked.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Thought I was going crazy. (Still a possibility)
@ Rizzo the Rat:
OK, I should have said there are very few times I’d red light a hitter and I don’t care about his plate discipline. The times I would red light a hitter in a 3-0 count I’d red light the entire team.
Maholm is cruising today. Only one hit, one walk, one HBP in seven innings
Martin Perez and his famous 56-foot two seamer starting for the Rangers tomorrow.
What the fuck is a “quality strike”?
Lowrie with the little league helmet. (dying laughing)
@ Suburban kid:
When you decide to half-ass your work so that the quality is reduced to prove to your employer that it really CAN get worse? Like a half-assed labor strike.
Ouch
@ josh:
Why was Len talking about them as if they were some kind of stat?
@ Suburban kid:
For those not watching on TV, El Caballo took one off Los Cajones.
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2012/06/tomatoes/
scientists figure out why tomatoes suck now
@ Suburban kid:
No idea, I’m just talking out of my ass.
@ GW:
Sweet.
@ mb21:
Obstructed View–as in the obstruction of the arteries, I guess.
josh wrote:
exactly
If they’re suddenly going to start playing well against teams they’re better than, the Cubs are never going to get the #1 draft pick.
Classic middle period Marmol.
@ Suburban kid:
Except it didn’t end on him making the guy look ridiculous on a strikeout.
Typical Marmol save.
@ josh:
It’s okay! The Cubs still hold the tiebreaker and San Diego hasn’t played yet!
Oh wait, SD is in Colorado tonight. Gulp.
Marm’s velocity is definitely back this year, but I wish he’d get more swinging strikes.
Manly:
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22684415&c_id=mlb
@ Suburban kid:
People have been talking about quality strikes forever. It’s the dumbest thing imaginable.
@ GW:
That’s interesting. Good tomatoes are hard to find in a store. Heirloom ones are the best, but those are more expensive. I’ve had good luck with campari tomatoes around here. Nothing beats the homegrown ones, but we won’t don’t have all that many so it doesn’t matter.
@ mb21:
Have you ever heard of a Kumato? They’re a patented breed of tomato that are known for being really sweet compared to other tomatoes. At least around here (North Side of Chicago) I can usually get them for $1 or $1.50 for a pint of them. Not the best, but a lot better than what else I get at that price
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/cubs-looking-for-ubaldo-jimenez-type-deal-for-matt-garza.html