Series Preview (and game thread): Giants (6-3) at Cubs (3-5)

In Game Threads, Series Previews by berselius83 Comments

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The Cubs will get a whiff of success this weekend, and it will probably be coming from the other dugout. (Blatantly plagarized from Brett's preview blurb at Bleacher Nation, because it's too funny. Take that, Paul Sullivan. Or something.) The Cubs are on a roll, not having lost for two straight days. The Giants, meanwhile, have crushed all before them and are coming off a sweep of the Rockies. I've been more down on the Giants this year than most, but they're a team that I always seem to underrate.

Team Overviews

2012 NL rank listed for each stat

  Giants Cubs
wRC+ 99 (4th) 80 (16th)
BSR 4.6 (7th) -8.1 (14th)
UZR 13.9 (4th) 30.5 (2nd)
DRS -7 (8th) -7 (7th)
SP FIP- 102 (10th) 108 (13th)
RP FIP- 99 (10th) 116 (16th)

Injury news

The Giants have no significant injuries to speak of. Pablo Sandoval had some nerve irritation in his elbow in March that the Giants are being careful with, but that's about it.

Darwin Barney starts a rehab assignment with Kane County tomorrow.

Fun with small sample sizes

Welington Castillo has been the Cubs hottest hitter so far this year. He has a .381/.409/.619 slash line, good for a .440 wOBA. Castillo has looked pretty good at the plate in general, making solid contact. I like his throwing arm behind the plate, though his throws have not been as accurate as in the first few games. It seems like a lot of runners have been stealing off the pitchers. Nate Schierholtz is right behind Castillo, with .304/.385/.565 and .406. I'm finding myself liking the RF platoon a lot more than I thought I would in the offseason. One nice thing about Schierholtz is that he's not a big enough name that a manager is likely to keep him out there vs lefties since he's had a hot start to the year. There's still time yet.

Jeff Samardzija has a K% of 40.7%.

Brent Lillibridge is 0 for 17 with no walks. Marlon Byrd must be his role model.

Tim Lincecum has walked 11 batters in 11 innings.

Pitching matchups

I list each pitcher's 2012 ERA, FIP-, xFIP, and their 2013 ZiPS projection

Thursday: Ryan Vogelsong, RHP (3.37, 99, 4.15, 3.87) vs Scott Feldman, RHP (5.09, 86, 3.87, 4.08), 1:20 PM CT

Vogelsong was so bad that the Wandy Rodriguez HOF might as well be renamed in his honor. I'm still kind of baffled by how good he's been since joining the Giants (see also: Samardzija, Jeff). He's not a guy who strikes too many batters out, and his big problem in his Pirates career was walks. It dropped by one and a half walkers per nine in his second career, and has showed no signs of inching up. He was hit hard by the Cardinals in his first start, giving up five runs in five innings and change. The Cards big inning doesn't necessarily reflect badly on him though – it was an infield single, a walk, and a couple more singles and suddenly it was three runs. He has a decent fastball, but his best pitch is his curveball.

Feldman (and everyone else) was pushed back a day due to the rainout. I'm lazy, so I'll just repeat what I wrote in my last preview.

Feldman was awful in his first start. He gave up four runs in four innings and change, and was lucky that he didn't give up even more. His control was all over the place. I'm really hoping that he's the one who gets squeezed out of the rotation when Garza gets back. Villaneuva seems like the obvious choice for that though, and I wouldn't put Travis Wood out of the question either since the Cubs are likely planning to try and trade Feldman and Villanueva.

Friday: Matt Cain, RHP (2.79, 61, 3.82, 3.30) vs Carlos Villanueva, RHP (4.16, 114, 4.09, 4.22), 1:20 PM CT

I guess Cain has earned the right not to be referred to as Ricky Nolasco around here. Cain's best pitch is all of them, but especially his slider, which he throws equally likely on any count. Cain shut out the Dodgers for six innings on opening day, but was absolutely shelled by the Cardinals in his following start. He gave up nine runs in 3.2 innings and struck out only two.

I thought Villaneueva looked pretty good in his last start, and that's no even considering his excellent mustache. He worked into the seventh, striking out six and allowing only a solo HR to Justin Upton. Carlos Marmol apparently decided to one-up him by allowing homers to both Uptons in the ninth.

Saturday: Madison Bumgarner, LHP (3.37, 94, 3.45, 3.24) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.81, 89, 3.38, 3.39), 12:05 PM CT

Bumgarner went eight innings in his first start shutting out the Dodgers on two hits, striking out six, and walking no one. He struggled in his next start against the Rockies, walking five in 5.2 innings but only yielding two runs. He'll get to face the vaunted Cubs RHH lineup that looked so awful against the likes of Wandy and Mike Minor.

Shark was electric for the first four innings of Sunday's game, striking out ten batters. Things started getting wild for him when he had to pitch out of the stretch later in the game though. He walked two batters and threw two wild pitches in the fifth, then had a walk and a HBP on his way out in the sixth. But those first four innings, wow. Kerry Wood was on everyone's mind. He had everything going to start that game.

Sunday: The Collapsing Remains of Tim Lincecum's Career, RHP (5.18, 98, 3.82, 3.70), vs Edwin Jackson, RHP (4.03, 99, 3.79, 3.68), 1:20 PM CT

Lincecum fell off a cliff after signing his giant extension at the beginning of 2012. His strikeout rate was much steadier than I thought, but he started walking a lot more batters, and coughed up some more gopherballs. Some of that could be bad luck, but the concerning thing is that he lost 2 mph off his fastball last year, and it looks like it had a detrimental effect on the rest of his pitches too. His changeup velocity did not drop, for example. Still, I don't know how much of a difference a 7mph vs a 9mph gap between those pitches would make. He's walked 11 batters already this year.

Jackson got rocked early in his last start, but the coaching staff noticed something was up with his grip and he pitched fine after that. He's still hoping to put together his first solid start in a Cubs uniform. Also that the Chicago Police weren't so zealous about parking violations.

 

Lineups for today's game

Giants

  1. CF Angel Pagan
  2. SS Brandon Crawford
  3. 3B Pablo Sandoval
  4. C Buster Posey
  5. RF Hunter Pence
  6. 1B Brandon Belt
  7. LF Gregor Blanco
  8. 2B Nick Noonan
  9. P Vogelsong

Cubs

  1. CF David DeJesus
  2. SS Starlin Castro
  3. 1B Anthony Rizzo
  4. LF Alfonso Soriano
  5. RF Nate Schierholtz
  6. C Welington Castillo
  7. 3B Luis Valbuena
  8. 2B Hide your kids
  9. P Feldman

 

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Comments

  1. GW

    from wikipedia:

    Studies have shown a major reduction in left-turn collisions and a minor reduction in merging and diverging collisions, due to the shifting of left turns outside the main intersection.[1] In addition it reduces the number of different traffic light phases, significantly increasing traffic flow. Since separate phases are no longer needed for left turns, this increases green time for through traffic. The effect on turning traffic is mixed.[1] Consequently, the timing of traffic signals along a highway featuring the design is made easier by the elimination of left-turn phases both on that highway and along intersecting roadways contributing to the reduction of travel times and the increased capacity of those roadways.[1] Finally it has been shown to enhance safety to pedestrians crossing either street at an intersection featuring the design, since they only encounter through traffic and vehicles making right turns. The left-turning movement, having been eliminated, removes one source of potential vehicle-pedestrian conflict.[1] One minor disadvantage of the Michigan left is the extra distance required for the motorist to drive. Sometimes the distance to the turnaround is as far away as 1⁄4 miles (400 m) past the intersection. This design leads to each motorist driving an additional 1⁄2 miles (800 m) to make a left turn.

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  2. Akabari

    @josh
    Yeah, I live in Grand Rapids and they are on every main street, really. Esepcially trying to learn a city makes it hard since you think you passed everything but you haven’t even come up to turn left yet.
    They’re all over the state and like GW said, they’re actually called Michigan Lefts. I think they’re terrible, too.
    And yeah, they probably ARE safer for certain things, but having to do a sharp ass Uturn into traffic is nerve wracking for someone like me who is the least aggressive driver on the face of the earth.

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  3. JonKneeV

    Here on the north side of Indianapolis (to which Myles can probably attest to), we have roundabouts everywhere. I actually kinda like them.

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  4. Myles

    JonKneeV wrote:

    Here on the north side of Indianapolis (to which Myles can probably attest to), we have roundabouts everywhere. I actually kinda like them.

    Yeah. If you live in Carmel, you are surrounded by them. I think they are pretty sweet, EXCEPT the double roundabouts (they have a few in Avon). Those kinda suck.

    I’m not rich enough to live in Carmel, so I live on the southwest side. We have good old-fashioned stoplights and people that look like Brent Lillibridge here.

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  5. Suburban kid

    Lilliburg should celebrate his two RBI on a weak ass single by shaving. Granted, it will make him look like a child rather than a child molester, but at least he won’t be mistaken for a neighbor of Myles.

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  6. josh

    There was a roundabout in Mt Prospect by my Dr’s office. They did it, presumably, because it was a 6-way intersection. You got to it after dipping below a railroad track, so the first couple of times you reach it its like blindfolded frogger.

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  7. dmick89

    Commenter on the hardball talk

    He should have got drunk, got in a car, and driven toward the opposing dugout and avoided any chance at suspension.

    (dying laughing)

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  8. dmick89

    @ josh:
    That’s basically what it is, but I’m thinking more about how to fit that damn thing in your pocket. Obviously that wouldn’t be where you’d carry it, which would make it useless to me. If I have to carry a bag everywhere or get into it in order to answer the phone, I’d pull out of my baseball bat and attack it.

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  9. uncle dave

    I can’t wait until Barney and Stewart come back. That should really bolster the bottom of the lineup.

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  10. uncle dave

    Look, I know this is serious nitpicking at this point, but is Hairston hurt? He’s the only guy who vaguely resembles a Major League hitter on the Cubs bench today and he’s been passed over in favor of Sappelt, Clevenger, and Navarro. Even with his platoon split he seems like a better option than all three of those guys.

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  11. uncle dave

    Even if he’s not the best option to hit at the time, he needs to play. Sveum needs to play the guys who have value, whether that’s young guys who might be part of the team in later years or guys who we’re trying to trade. DeJesus and Hairston need to be in there as much as possible to showcase their skills. Sappelt and Clevenger are non-prospects with no MLB value. Those are the guys who need to rot on the bench.

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  12. dmick89

    @ uncle dave:
    I can’t even imagine talking on that thing. It’s 3.5 inches wide. Add a case to it, which would have to weight like 18 pounds to hold something that big and a lot of people won’t even be able to get one hand around it. At least not comfortably. Talking with 2 hands would kind of suck.

    I guess I could see it as useful at home when you could easily set it down and talk, but that’s not so easy outside. I’ve got an iPad and I wouldn’t even want to use Facetime on it.

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  13. josh

    @ GW:
    I’m a little suspicious because of specific they are with which types of collisions they reduced. I can see that from the pedestrian perspective, though. I’ve almost been run over by people turning left who neglected to check the crosswalk many times. You get so focused on oncoming traffic, you can forget to check that the way is clear.

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  14. uncle dave

    @ dmick89:
    You’d pretty much have to use a headset. Do people actually talk on the phone anymore, though? Unless it’s for business or to my folks, I’d say I text 95% of the time instead.

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  15. uncle dave

    @ Myles:
    Well, if you want to delve that deeply into it…

    I feel like he’s got a bit more in him than he’s showing right now (and showed at Iowa last year), but he’s 26 and not yet established any sort of performance at the big league level. He just seems very fungible, I guess.

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  16. dmick89

    @ uncle dave:
    Mostly just my parents and my brother on occasion, but there are is at least a few times each day I make a call. Bank, doctor, drug dealers, hookers, other miscellaneous calls like that.

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  17. josh

    @ uncle dave:
    Kind of what I was thinking. Easier to use the keyboard. I could see it filling a niche, if not being a direct competitor with the iPhone. They may be testing to see what size and combination of tablet and phone is most popular.

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  18. GW

    dodgers/padres brawl in san diego. cameras were on matt kemp who kept repeating: “that’s fucking bullshit, man.”

    vin scully: “‘that’s fertilizer,’ says kemp, over and over. ‘that is fertilizer.'”

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  19. raovat

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