After three days of not losing, the Cubs are back in the saddle again to play out the string on the rest of the season.
The Marlins have had a roller coaster of a season so far. As recently as June 1 they had a 31-23 record and were two games out from the division lead. June turned out to be a disaster, as they went 1-19 in their next twenty games. Manager Edwin Rodriguez resigned on June 19, and 5,000 year old manager Jack McKeon took the helm yet again. Since that slide ended, they’ve posted a winning record, and rode a five game winning streak into the break.
Team Overviews
As always, team stats and NL ranks:
| Fish | Cubs | |
| wOBA | .307 (10th) | .317 (7th) |
| UBR | -0.7 (10th) | -9 (16th) |
| UZR | -6 (9th) | -11.1 (12th) |
| SP FIP | 3.93 (9th) | 4.09 (11th) |
| RP FIP | 3.74 (7th) | 3.96 (13th) |
The front end of their rotation (i.e. Josh Johnson) was unsurprisingly stable…until he went down in mid-May with shoulder problems. Anibal Sanchez has continued his run of great pitching from last year, and Matt Cain and Felix Pie has an ERA that hews much closer to his excellent FIP this year.
Offensively, Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison, and baseball murdering machine Mike Stanton have been the main cogs of their offense, while All-Star Omar Infante has been a black hole of suck who is still somehow getting regular starts. Aside from their crazy losing slide this season the biggest story of the season has been the complete disappearance of Hanley Ramirez‘s bat. More than halfway through the season, his wOBA (.319) is more than 50 points off of his projection.
Pitching Matchups
Thursday: Anibal Sanchez, RHP (3.58, 3.24, 3.10, 3.39) vs Matt Garza, RHP (4.26, 2.94, 2.86, 3.78), 7:05 PM CT
Sanchez is a member of the Wandy Rodriguez Memorial All Bad First Impressions pitching staff. He’s a great pitcher now, but whenever I think of him I think of the guy who threw a no-hitter in his rookie year (I think) while walking something like 17 batters, following it up with an arm injury or two. Since then his control has improved considerably, and this year has been his best season yet. He’s striking out more than a batter an inning, and is averaging more than six innings per start.
I guess this start means that Garza is the Team Ace now. As well he should be, the way he’s pitched this season. He had a tough time knocking the rust off in his first few starts back from the DL, then threw a complete game agaisnt the White Sox before needing 67 pitches to get through 2+ innings against the Nationals. Go figure.
Friday: Matt Cain and Felix Pie, RHP (3.70, 3.27, 3.42, 3.19) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (5.01, 3.92, 3.43, 3.71), 1:20 PM CT
Nolasco has seen a dip in his strikeouts this season, but he’s also managed to keep the ball in the park. He’s gone deep into many games, including two complete games in his last three starts.
Demp could be a start away from lowering his ERA below 5 for the season, so I guess he’s got that going for him.
Saturday: Chris Volstad?, RHP (5.40, 4.58, 3.67, 4.28) vs Carlos Zambrano, RHP (4.34, 3.87, 4.21, 3.71), 12:05 PM CT
The Marlins haven’t announced their starters for the weekend, but it should be Volstad and Vazquez in some order. Volstad is having a Dempster like season – his strikeout, walk, and GB rates have all improved but the ball is just flying out of the park when it’s hit in the air (16.5% HR/FB). One report I read said that he had a strong finish going into the All-Star break, but what I see in his last three outings are a seven inning, zero strikeout start, a seven run outing against the Phillies, and a solid start against the hapless Astros. Not exactly setting the world on fire.
Z is back from selfishly adopting a Guatemalan orphan. Hopefully Paul Sullivan has his eyes peeled as to whether Z ever dares to have a catch with his son.
Sunday: Javier Vazquez, RHP (5.23, 4.54, 4.53, 3.89) vs Randy Wells, RHP (6.80, 5.25, 4.34, 3.99), 1:20 PM CT
If this matchup does happen, it will be a duel to see which pitcher has been a bigger disappointment this season. At least RAndy Wells‘s numbers can be somewhat explained away by his injury. He’s been back from the DL for over a month but his velocity is still significantly lower than it was in his previous two seasons. Vazquez has also lost a few MPH off his fastball since his excellent 2009 with the Braves, but it looks even worse for him as he’s such an extreme flyball pitcher. He’s giving up a ton of flyballs, and not surprisingly a lot of them are leaving the ballpark.
Prediction
Eh, I guess I’ll go with a series split. The Marlins are really missing their two best players (Johnson, due to injury, and Hanley, due to who knows what). Tickets can be purchased for all four games at Vivid Seats.
From previous…Prince Fielder probably doesn’t become a Diamondback next season:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-passan_prince_fielder_all_star_mvp_071311
That is a very very complex inside joke that took me a few seconds to figure out.
[quote name=Rice Cube]That is a very very complex inside joke that took me a few seconds to figure out.[/quote]
I figured it would be more obvious after I used the same one for the Cain in the Giants preview
The only good thing about the Prince Fielder situation is that they’ll probably never do the silly thing where they have HR derby teams chosen by captains.
[quote name=Berselius]I figured it would be more obvious after I used the same one for the Cain in the Giants preview[/quote]
Well played, sir.
Lineup tonight
Fukudome
Castro
Rodrigo
Peenya
Byrd
Adolfo
Geo
Barney
Garza
The analytical argument puts Santo in the HOF as well. His WAR puts him in not just sentimentality.
[quote name=melissa]The analytical argument puts Santo in the HOF as well. His WAR puts him in not just sentimentality.[/quote]
My point is that the analytical argument is just window dressing on the reason I want him in the HOF. Even if you strip away the subjectiveness of the word “Fame”, there’s still plenty to argue about as to what makes a good cutoff for a HOF and the like.
kirk & mcnutt both pitch tonight
[quote name=Berselius]My point is that the analytical argument is just window dressing on the reason I want him in the HOF. Even if you strip away the subjectiveness of the word “Fame”, there’s still plenty to argue about as to what makes a good cutoff for a HOF and the like.[/quote]
Ok, that makes sense, I inferred that you were saying his numbers don’t put him in. It’s also true that even a numbers based argument can be subjective when you talk cutoffs.
Is the All-Star break over already? I have to admit, I’m not really looking forward to the resumption of play.
[quote name=melissa]Ok, that makes sense, I inferred that you were saying his numbers don’t put him in. It’s also true that even a numbers based argument can be subjective when you talk cutoffs.[/quote]
The same also goes for things like number of peak years vs longevity, which is another thing that cropped up in things like the Bert Blyleven HOF Clusterfuck™
[quote name=melissa]Is the All-Star break over already? I have to admit, I’m not really looking forward to the resumption of play.[/quote]
At least I have
to distract me.
/nerd
And I guess this soon too
[quote name=melissa]Is the All-Star break over already? I have to admit, I’m not really looking forward to the resumption of play.[/quote]
Baseball > no baseball. Even if it’s shitty baseball.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Baseball > no baseball. Even if it’s shitty baseball.[/quote]
Yeah, I agree. I was just starting to enjoy not having to watch the train wreck though, it’s hard for me to look away.
[quote name=melissa]Yeah, I agree. I was just starting to enjoy not having to watch the train wreck though, it’s hard for me to look away.[/quote]
Well, if you’re being optimistic, hope for a spectacular train wreck with lots of (dying laughing)-worthy plays and fails.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Baseball > no baseball. Even if it’s shitty baseball.[/quote]
Definitely agree, plus i’ll just do what i’ve done the last 2 years and watch more interesting teams.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Well, if you’re being optimistic, hope for a spectacular train wreck with lots of (dying laughing)-worthy plays and fails.[/quote]
Oh, indeed.
AZ Phil:
So I guess that’s good. He should probably move up to A- at least soon tho since he was playing ACC baseball, no?
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]AZ Phil:
So I guess that’s good. He should probably move up to A- at least soon tho since he was playing ACC baseball, no?[/quote]I would guess he gets promoted to Peoria before the end of the minor league season.
Toronto up by a touchdown over the Yankees…in the first inning.
How much is milb.tv and is it worth it? good streaming? jackson is making his AAA debut tonight, and that’s got to be more interesting than watching the Cubs
Man, on the radio they’re trying to interview Kosuke through a translator. It’s… awkward.
Bartolo maybe getting nervous that MLB now has his medical records; 2/3 innings, 8 runs
[quote name=ACT]Man, on the radio they’re trying to interview Kosuke through a translator. It’s… awkward.[/quote]
Toyota suzuki yamaha.
I wonder if the Yankees would be interested in Soto. Martin has really sucked after the first month or so.
I’m just glad to see that Mike has the team he expected when they came out of spring training.(dying laughing)
I like the part where All-Star Omar Infante is batting second.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Toyota suzuki yamaha.[/quote]
Subaru.
Good job by Garza to get out of that one.
mcnutt no longer starting.
Community is funny.
[quote name=dylanj]mcnutt no longer starting.[/quote]Missed start? Dead?
[quote name=Berselius]Subaru.[/quote]
/owns an Outback
Uhh… Nissan?
[quote name=WaLi]/owns an Outback
Uhh… Nissan?[/quote]
Mitsubishi!!!
[quote name=GBTS]Community is funny.[/quote]
It is an amusing show with frequently annoying fans. Did you just start watching?
missing a start. what a lost season for this guy
[quote name=Berselius]It is an amusing show with frequently annoying fans. Did you just start watching?[/quote]I’ve seen like 5 or 6 episodes or so. Now I’m watching Parks and Rec for the first time.
[quote name=GBTS]I’ve seen like 5 or 6 episodes or so. Now I’m watching Parks and Rec for the first time.[/quote]
Love Parks + Rec, but Parks and Rec season 1 is not a great introduction to the show. You’re better off starting with season 2, or the last season 1 episode.
Byrd Byrd…
I’m just watching it live. I’ve heard that from multiple people though.
LON!
Nice to see Geo get a hit.
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]AZ Phil:
So I guess that’s good. He should probably move up to A- at least soon tho since he was playing ACC baseball, no?[/quote]
Bubbles thinks the SEC is always better than the ACC and the ACC is where people not good enough to play in the ACC go if they want to go south
I am just not a barney fan to be honest.. Think he is a great util guy.. But to be honest i want to see the DJ getting some AB;s or flaherty
[quote name=GBTS]I’m just watching it live. I’ve heard that from multiple people though.[/quote]Are they performing in your living room or something?
Flaherty with double in first AAA at bat
i dont get the DJ love. the guy cant take a walk and plays MI. he’s a dime a dozen
bjaxx with a double
9-7 Toronto now. Jose Bautista was replaced in the top of the fifth, I wonder if the Jays thought the game was over or if he’s hurt. Either way, what a comeback by the Yanks and it’s only the sixth inning.
[quote name=Rice Cube]9-7 Toronto now. Jose Bautista was replaced in the top of the fifth, I wonder if the Jays thought the game was over or if he’s hurt. Either way, what a comeback by the Yanks and it’s only the sixth inning.[/quote]
twisted ankle.
[quote name=GW]twisted ankle.[/quote]
Gameday tells me nothin’. That sucks though.
BJax just scored a run. Yay!
“Nandushka! Nandushka! Zenith beat Sony again!”
I’m sorry to have to be the one to ask, but can you explain the Matt Cain/Felix Pie inside joke?
Joe West declares a mistrial, from FanGraphs.
[quote name=Rice Cube]BJax just scored a run. Yay![/quote]
I was very excited about BJaxx, too — until I saw that he’s struck out 30.1% of his at-bats this season. That dampened my enthusiasm.
[quote name=Steve Swisher]I was very excited about BJaxx, too — until I saw that he’s struck out 30.1% of his at-bats this season. That dampened my enthusiasm.[/quote]
The OBP is his saving grace. The strikeouts are very alarming.
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2008/10/20/637547/building-a-cubs-champion-i
Nicholas Struck is having BABIP and general suckiness issues.
[quote name=dylanj]i dont get the DJ love. the guy cant take a walk and plays MI. he’s a dime a dozen[/quote]
Neither does Barney and i think he is a much better hitter
[quote name=Rice Cube]
Joe West declares a mistrial, from FanGraphs.[/quote](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]The OBP is his saving grace. The strikeouts are very alarming.[/quote]
His OBP is .373. Not bad, but not jaw-dropping, either. He’s got 10 homers, though, so maybe he’s developing a little pop. But yeah, the K rate is crazy-high.
This kid is really impressing me
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=3B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=600869
Another hit today with another 2 walks.. I would not be shocked if we skipped him to peoria
i am not concerned with B Jax. He will strike out a lot. But plays a premium position will hit 20 homeruns with good health and steal around 25 bases while having an OBP of hopefully around .370
Sounds like the best player on this team
Daytona cubs have 11 hits but one run.. Prepping these guys for the show…
(dying laughing)
Wang pitches tonight for Boise
Good play by the defense to get Garza out of that jam again.
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]i am not concerned with B Jax. He will strike out a lot. But plays a premium position will hit 20 homeruns with good health and steal around 25 bases while having an OBP of hopefully around .370
Sounds like the best player on this team[/quote]
I like your optimism.
it will be interesting to see how jackson responds in a hitter friendly league. see if that average gets up
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Bubbles thinks the SEC is always better than the ACC and the ACC is where people not good enough to play in the ACC go if they want to go south[/quote]
I agree with you bubbles; but I’d still think ACC is a bit above rookie league
Hey, is Koby Clemens Roger’s son? He’s been on base twice today against the I-Cubs of Iowa.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Hey, is Koby Clemens Roger’s son? He’s been on base twice today against the I-Cubs of Iowa.[/quote]
I believe so. I think all of his kids’ names begin with K: Kody, Koby, Kranky, Kweef, Krazee-Eyes Killa, KK Downing, and so on.
The reason: K = Strikeout in baseball parlance. Get it?
Very very nice to see Geo hitting.
Thanks Steve…I thought the mug looked a lot like the Rocket and it makes sense being that OKC is the Astros’ affiliate, correct?
[quote name=Rice Cube]Very very nice to see Geo hitting.
Thanks Steve…I thought the mug looked a lot like the Rocket and it makes sense being that OKC is the Astros’ affiliate, correct?[/quote]
It’s true. Speaking of Clemens, was that time he threw the bat at Mike Piazza one of the weirdest baseball moments or what?
[quote name=Steve Swisher]It’s true. Speaking of Clemens, was that time he threw the bat at Mike Piazza one of the weirdest baseball moments or what?[/quote]
He thought it was a baseball. Easy to confuse.
http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/6770893/chicago-cubs-manager-mike-quade-pitcher-ryan-dempster-cleared-air-argument
(dying laughing)
Everything is fantastic. I don’t want to take the quote out of context, but I’m having a difficult time imagining a context where that quote would make sense.
Still, the girlfriend line is hilarious.
Who this fuck is this guy in the booth?
[quote name=Berselius]Who this fuck is this guy in the booth?[/quote]Is it not Tony Campana? He looks four feet tall, so I just assumed.
[quote name=AndCounting]Everything is fantastic. I don’t want to take the quote out of context, but I’m having a difficult time imagining a context where that quote would make sense.
Still, the girlfriend line is hilarious.[/quote]
I thought the girlfriend line was great. Quade can be cool at times.
…
Why would you pinch-run the trailing runner when he’s blocked by a slow lead runner?
That’s three very hard hits for Soto tonight.
[quote name=Rice Cube]…
Why would you pinch-run the trailing runner when he’s blocked by a slow lead runner?[/quote]
Let’s see what happens
Guess it doesn’t matter because the slowpoke just trotted in…
Barney —> ouchRBI
Darwin Barney is kind of a tough dude. That looked like it hurt.
Quade’s strategery worked perfect, now Campy can steal home.
[quote name=melissa]Quade’s strategery worked perfect, now Campy can steal home.[/quote]
Or he’ll do his stupid wigger dance, fall down and get picked off third. I wish to be entertained.
I really hope Quade gets some sitcom or standup job. While I’m no fan of his in-game strategy, I do love his comedy.
Jeff Baker, LOOGY killer.
Jeff Baker usually does not just take strike three like that.
Is Quade going to be depicted in Moneyball? If so, I vote Jake Busey play the part.
Is Reedz not available? I’ve not been paying close attention. Why not pinch hit for Fuky vs the lefty?
April is over.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Jeff Baker usually does not just take strike three like that.[/quote]That was not strike three.
[quote name=melissa]Is Reedz not available? I’ve not been paying close attention. Why not pinch hit for Fuky vs the lefty?[/quote]
He already burned DeWitt, Campana and Baker so unless he double-switches he’s down to Reed and Koyie. That’s the rationale I can think of anyway.
[quote name=AndCounting]That was not strike three.[/quote]
Gameday says you are correct…just a tad low.
[quote name=melissa]Is Reedz not available? I’ve not been paying close attention. Why not pinch hit for Fuky vs the lefty?[/quote]It probably doesn’t matter as much as you think, since players perform worse coming off the bench.
[quote name=Rice Cube]April is over.[/quote]Yeah, check out his wOBA per month.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=3263&position=OF&season=2011
[quote name=Rice Cube]He already burned DeWitt, Campana and Baker so unless he double-switches he’s down to Reed and Koyie. That’s the rationale I can think of anyway.[/quote]
No double switch so Baker is also out of the game.
Marshy is ridiculous.
Also I’m guessing he wants the better defensive RF to stay in the game *shrug*
[quote name=AndCounting]Marshy is ridiculous.[/quote]Some of his curves were downright hilarious.
[quote name=ACT]It probably doesn’t matter as much as you think, since players perform worse coming off the bench.[/quote]
Did I say I thought it mattered a lot? It’s just curious to me as Reed is a veteran that is used to coming off the bench and I’ll take him against the lefty over Fukudome 99% of the time. It would be nice to add to the 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 7th and you don’t really lose any defense when you put Reed in right. Not a big deal, I’d just rather he take Fukudome out in that spot.
[quote name=josh]Yeah, check out his wOBA per month.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=3263&position=OF&season=2011/quoteCheck out his numbers the last couple of Augusts, though.
If tonight’s scores hold, Cubs —> #3 pick
[quote name=ACT]Check out his numbers the last couple of Augusts, though.[/quote]SWEET! ——> This is the year!
No, it’s good. In past years he’s been plagued by one extremely shitty month and so far he’s been holding his own. He’s going to end up having his best year yet if he has an August that mirrors those years.
Ah, Marmol…gonna get some extra hate if he fucks this up tonight.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Oh Marmol…you merry prankster you.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ah, Marmol…gonna get some extra hate if he fucks this up tonight.[/quote]?
Does anyone still care?
So does baseball tradition say that the Marlins give us an out here to get two men into scoring position?
[quote name=Mish]So does baseball tradition say that the Marlins give us an out here to get two men into scoring position?[/quote]
He’s showing bunt.
And on our facebook pages, at least someone cares (dying laughing)
(dying laughing) @ Marmol
Good lord man, you’d think he’d at least luck into a strike.
Oh, DeWayne Wise. Good for you for still being alive.
BJax struck out twice tonight.
I care. We only need 50 wins to compete in the division this year. What’s that? Only 70 games left?
…I BELIEVE!
This is a pretty good AB by Dobbs.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Most entertaining train wreck ever.
The Chicago Cubs really fucking suck (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
Well, I’m officially worried about Marm now.
Marm was in perfect position to back up a throw from the on-deck circle.
The good news is that this should really get the Marlins going.
(dying laughing)
Houston may not be out of reach (dying laughing)
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]Houston may not be out of reach (dying laughing)[/quote]
We’ll pick up a half game! WOOHOO!!!!
This team is such a train wreck.
[quote name=Rice Cube]BJax struck out twice tonight.[/quote]
The I Cubs as a team struck out 9 times against 0 walks.
That will only help them in their quest to have the worst ratio in the PCL. Currently they are 3rd in strikeouts (667) and 15th (out of 16) in walks (279).
[quote name=Chris Dickerson]The I Cubs as a team struck out 9 times against 0 walks.
That will only help them in their quest to have the worst ratio in the PCL. Currently they are 3rd in strikeouts (667) and 15th (out of 16) in walks (279).[/quote]
Organization fail.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Organization fail.[/quote]Does the shit well up from the bottom or does it fall down from the top?
[quote name=Mish]Does the shit well up from the bottom or does it fall down from the top?[/quote]
After reading “Moneyball” I think it starts from high up.
Campana had a baserunner kill.
Hanley being lazy. (dying laughing)
[quote name=ACT]Campana had a baserunner kill.[/quote]
Dividing by zero!
Oh NOW Campana learns how to bunt.
Soto is 4-4.
Four very hard hits by Geo.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Four very hard hits by Geo.[/quote]I think I’ll wet my pants.
Marlins trying to out-Cub the Cubs.
Marmol’s line:
FIP : 14.96
WPA: -.810
Good thing Reed swung at that last pitch. Otherwise it would have hit him in the chin.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Four very hard hits by Geo.[/quote]No runs or RBI, though. He’s not producing!
I forget, does this make the Cubs good or bad at baseball?
[quote name=ACT]No runs or RBI, though. He’s not producing![/quote]
Too damn lazy.
Marmol had a bad game, eh?
C Marmol
(L, 2-3; B, 7) 0.0 1 5 5 4 0 0 25-7 3.64
Guess what the numbers are.
25 pitches, 7 strikes (dying laughing)
brewers now -10 in run differential.
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=16880131
I like how Marmol forgot he had to cover home plate until the ball got past Soto. Not the best throw by Barney but Soto didn’t help him out too much either.
Wow @ fail
New OV regular feature up:
http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/cubs-pic-of-the-day-look-a-dewayne-wise-sighting.html