BREAKING NEWS: I heard the 49ers are shopping Taylor Mays
Just 18 more wins in a row until the Cubs are back at .500! It’s Gonna Happen.
Where have things gone wrong with the Reds? It seemed like just about everyone (smugly: not me) was picking them to win the division in the preseason. Let’s look at their team stats and get an idea of where things have gone wrong.
Team Overviews
As always, these are team stats and NL ranks
| Reds | Cubs | |
| wOBA | .323 (4th) | .315 (8th) |
| UBR | 11.6 (1st) | -14.1 (16th) |
| UZR | 40.2 (2nd) | -20.1 (13th) |
| SP FIP | 4.43 (16th) | 4.09 (10th) |
| RP FIP | 3.85 (10th) | 4.10 (15th) |
I started looking up these numbers and through the first three I was amazed that the Reds aren’t running away with the division. That UZR number is no fluke – they also lead the NL in DRS. Then I got to the starting pitchers. (Side note: the Cubs have by far the largest ERA-FIP split in MLB. There’s over a run in difference. The next team is the Royals, whose split is 0.5.).
Johnny Cueto has put up incredible numbers this year, posting a 1.74 ERA on the back of a .219 BABIP and 5.1% HR/FB. His xFIP of 3.83 is much more in line with the kind of pitcher that I expected him to be – good but not great. Aside from Cueto things aren’t quite as pretty. The Reds have had ten different pitchers start games, including five by Dontrelle Willis, who is currently in the rotation and actually putting up decent numbers (!). Former staff leader Edinson Volquez was demoted in July after putting up a 5+ FIP through 85 innings on the season and still hasn’t found his groove in AAA. Another up and comer in the Reds rotation, Travis Wood, was also sent to the minors in late June for pitching poorly. Homer Bailey, predicted by many to have a breakout year, started the season with an shoulder injury, which he reinjured in May. Not surprisingly his performance has regressed from last year’s step forward but the talent should still be there. Now that he’s healthy they could have enough to make a run at the Cardinals, but they might be in too deep a hole at this point.
Pitching matchups
Friday Friday: Mike Leake, RHP (3.89, 3.82, 3.61, 4.04) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (4.96, 3.61, 3.32, 3.56), 1:20 PM CT
Leake had a much worse year last season than I remembered (4.68 FIP). Maybe it’s just that he dominated the Cubs whenever we faced them (dying laughing). He went straight to the majors from the draft, making his MLB debut against the Cubs. He didn’t record a loss in his first ten starts. He started running out of gas later in the year and the Reds shut him down to limit his innings. This year he’s cut down his walks to an excellent 2.22 BB/9, and is averaging 6+ innings a start. He’s also a decent hitter for a pitcher, posting a .304 wOBA in his career so far.
Dempster put up another solid start against the Cardinals last week, and is slowly dragging his ERA numbers down. Since his disatrous 6.55 FIP April, Demp has produced month by month FIPs of 2.74, 3.16, and 2.11. He should put up great numbers for the Cubs next year on their way to winning 72 games.
Saturday: Johnny Cueto, RHP (1.72, 3.36, 3.83, 3.84) vs Carlos Zambrano, RHP (4.46, 4.13, 4.25, 3.69), 12:05 PM CT
As mentioned above, Cueto has posted an insane BABIP this season. It’s even more flukey when you consider the fact that Cueto is a ground ball pitcher (53.4% this year), who tend to have even higher BABIPs than most. Part of it can be attributed to his low line drive rate (15.9%) but there’s a lot of luck going on there. Of course, it certainly helps his cause that he has the best defense in the National League behind him.
As is usual these days Z threw a ton of pitches in his last start (114 in six innings), but aside from that it was a start that looked a lot more like vintage post-2006 Z. He struck out five batters and got a decent number of grounders, which have been the main sources of Z-related concern this season. Of course, that was against the Pirates so things will probably still continute to look decliney against the much better Reds offense.
Sunday: Bronson Arroyo, RHP (5.45, 5.54, 4.28, 4.67) vs Randy Wells, RHP (5.89, 5.11, 4.24, 4.05), 1:20 PM CT
Unfortunately for the Reds, Arroyo has been their only opening day rotation member to stick in the rotation this year. I say unfortunately because he probably should have been demoted along with Volquez and Wood. But they don’t have any options on him, so he’s been left in to eat innings for them. As you can see from his xFIP he’s had a lot of bad luck with HRs, but in general it’s tough to compete when you have a strikout rate hovering around 5 K/9. As I complain about every time he turns up in one of these previews, I always think of Arroyo as a LHP because he’s a junkballing starter. He’s the anti Ted Lilly in the sense that he’s consistently lousy. He rarely gets blown out, just goes deep into games and gives up 3-5 runs.
Wells had a decent outing against the Pirates, striking out seven in six innings. He hasn’t gone more than six innings in any start this year.
Prediction
Cubs extend their winning streak to six, then start a new losing streak.
Nice.
[quote name=JMan]So Michael Cuddyer is a FA this year. Unless he signs an extension he is the Cubs 2012 starting 3B.[/quote]Based on his 1 inning of relief work, he might be a better fit for the Cubs’ bullpen.
[quote name=Rice Cube]there’s your random Photoshop project du jour.[/quote]
Who are you talking to?
Looks like today’s pitching matchup is pretty even, but the Reds have much better defense and offense, especially with the lineup the Cubs are running today, resting a few regulars. I say the winning streak ends today.
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Who are you talking to?[/quote]
Only cool people.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Only cool people.[/quote]
Oh well. I’m the uncoolest.
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]Oh well. I’m the uncoolest.[/quote]
I believe the appropriate meme at this point is “Apology accepted”…
Brett Jackson (last 10 games): 1.312 OPS 4 HR 7 BB
Boo propects!
Silly cartoons from B-Ref’s blog:
http://7thinningsketch.com/
[quote name=Rice Cube]I believe the appropriate meme at this point is “fap worthy“…[/quote].
Joe Poz on the retirements of Matt Stairs and Randy Moss:
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/08/04/two-retirements/
Courtesy of HBT:
Carlos Lee has more career plate appearances than the rest of the Astros combined
[quote name=Mish]Courtesy of HBT:
Carlos Lee has more career plate appearances than the rest of the Astros combined[/quote]And more mass!
I don’t use Twitter that much, but if you guys were following the MLB feed last night, Colbert was going nuts:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Video-Stephen-Colbert-riffs-on-Craig-Counsell-a?urn=mlb-wp15030#remaining-content
Dempster did a nice Marmol impersonation that inning.
[quote name=ACT]Dempster did a nice Marmol impersonation that inning.[/quote]I figured it would bite him in the ass and he’d allow all of them to score. That seems to be what’s happened to him most of the season.
CAMPANA!!
Campana is really, really, really, really fast. I mean he’s really fast.
Campana hits his first professional homer!
(dying laughing). There’s Campana’s HR
The funny thing is that once I saw the ball get by him I figured Campana had a chance for an inside the park home run. Then when I saw it roll all the way toward the wall it was easy.
[quote name=mb21]Campana is really, really, really, really fast. I mean he’s really fast.[/quote]Ya. That’s insane. A normal ballplayer might have stretched that into a triple.
[quote name=mb21]Campana is really, really, really, really fast. I mean he’s really fast.[/quote]
So you’re saying he’s fast?
[quote name=mb21]Campana is really, really, really, really fast. I mean he’s really fast.[/quote]
yeah, he’s the fastest cub i’ve ever seen
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing). There’s Campana’s HR[/quote]If he could hit to someone like Soriano playing LF every day, he’d probably the lead the league in home runs even though none of them would leave the yard.
[quote name=Berselius]So you’re saying he’s fast?[/quote]Really fast. Weren’t you paying attention?
[quote name=mb21]The funny thing is that once I saw the ball get by him I figured Campana had a chance for an inside the park home run. Then when I saw Yonder Alonso in LF it was easy.[/quote]
.
(dying laughing), I forgot that Geo has hit an inside the parker
Anybody watching the game care to explain how one hits an inside the park homer to “short left field”?
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing), I forgot that Geo has hit an inside the parker[/quote]
2008 was a magical year
Stupid job! Stupid sitting here doing nothing when I could be home watching people hit inside the park homers!
14 seconds from the time it hit his bat until he crossed home plate. I remember Molina’s triple last year that took him 19 seconds to get to 3rd base.
[quote name=uncle dave]Anybody watching the game care to explain how one hits an inside the park homer to “short left field”?[/quote]Campana.
[quote name=mb21]14 seconds from the time it hit his bat until he crossed home plate. I remember Molina’s triple last year that took him 19 seconds to get to 3rd base.[/quote]I remember yesterday at my softball game it took me 14 seconds to get to first base.
[quote name=josh]Campana + “defense” from Yonder Alonso in LF[/quote].
Inside-the-park or not, put Mike Leake on suicide watch.
[quote name=uncle dave]Anybody watching the game care to explain how one hits an inside the park homer to “short left field”?[/quote]liner over 3rd and Alonso misplayed it at the wall and it got past him all the way to the fence. Easy once it got past Alonso.
Iv’e never seen anything like it. Alonso got the ball to the shortstop at about 13 seconds after contact. That’s a stand-up triple for Castro who has better than average speed. I believe the 2 or 3 triples I timed last year were about 11.5 seconds. I’ll have to watch the replay later and get out the stopwatch, but I think Campana was at 3rd base at 10 seconds. That’s crazy.
[quote name=mb21]liner over 3rd and Alonso misplayed it at the wall and it got past him all the way to the fence. Easy once it got past Alonso.
Iv’e never seen anything like it. Alonso got the ball to the shortstop at about 13 seconds after contact. That’s a stand-up triple for Castro who has better than average speed. I believe the 2 or 3 triples I timed last year were about 11.5 seconds. I’ll have to watch the replay later and get out the stopwatch, but I think Campana was at 3rd base at 10 seconds. That’s crazy.[/quote]Whoa.
(dying laughing)…just saw the replay. That’s some shitty defense.
replay up now: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_08_05_cinmlb_chnmlb_1&mode=gameday&c_id=chc
campana actually lapped Castro
[quote name=mb21]liner over 3rd and Alonso misplayed it at the wall and it got past him all the way to the fence. Easy once it got past Alonso.
Iv’e never seen anything like it. Alonso got the ball to the shortstop at about 13 seconds after contact. That’s a stand-up triple for Castro who has better than average speed. I believe the 2 or 3 triples I timed last year were about 11.5 seconds. I’ll have to watch the replay later and get out the stopwatch, but I think Campana was at 3rd base at 10 seconds. That’s crazy.[/quote]
The world record for 100 m dash is 9.6 seconds. Around the bases is almost 110 m. Considering Campana has to drop the bat and change direction, he is fucking fast.
How is that not a double and an error?
Yeah, he makes contact at 2 seconds and is touching 3rd at 12 seconds. I’ll get the stopwatch out later today and time that, but that’s easily the fastest triple I’ve timed. Those around ACB last year after Molina’s triple know that I timed some of the fastest players and none of them match the unofficial time I have for Campana. He scores at 14 seconds. Shortstop gets the ball at 12 seconds and sees he has no shot at Campana who is slowing up as he crosses the plate.
That’s impressive.
[quote name=Aisle424]How is that not a double and an error?[/quote]Ball didn’t touch his glove and they rarely call errors when that’s the case.
Tyler Colvin has legitimate power. Nice to see him hitting for some power since his call up.
[quote name=Aisle424]How is that not a double and an error?[/quote]
I don’t think Alonso ever touched the ball.
Actually I take back that he is fast. I just calculated his average velocity and it came out to 0.
Colvin murdered that ball.
Watching it again, Alonso misplayed it, but you can’t give him an error on that one. Wrigley is a tough place to play with the outfield wall so close and Alonso isn’t used to it. Even if he is, that’s a play you’ll see happen from time to time. He could have played it better, but I think it was a tougher player than RC does.
[quote name=WaLi]Actually I take back that he is fast. I just calculated his average velocity and it came out to 0.[/quote]
(dying laughing)
[quote name=WaLi]Actually I take back that he is fast. I just calculated his average velocity and it came out to 0.[/quote]
He didn’t move?
If it weren’t for the wind that HR could have hit a building
If Alonso waits for that ball to kick to him like it did, it could just have easily not kicked that far out and still went to the ball. I actually think that’s a pretty tough play.
[quote name=Rice Cube]He didn’t move?[/quote]
He said average velocity, not average speed RC
[quote name=Rice Cube]I don’t think Alonso ever touched the ball.[/quote]
That is the most bullshit rule ever. He was so bad he completely missed a ball he should have at least knowcked down and he doesn’t get an error.
Oh well, that’s nice for Campana.
[quote name=mb21]If Alonso waits for that ball to kick to him like it did, it could just have easily not kicked that far out and still went to the ball. I actually think that’s a pretty tough play.[/quote]
It was a pretty crazy carom, I will concede that. I think he could have been positioned better but I guess that’s the price you pay for putting a first baseman in the outfield…
If he could just figure out how to place bunts better. He is stupid quick
[quote name=Berselius]He said average velocity, not average speed RC[/quote]So he ran in a circle?
I wish the Cubs could teach campana how to be extremely patient and learn to take a ton of walks. Unless he’s Ichiro and has extreme bat control he has no business just slapping the ball. Just take a walk or hit line drive singles.
[quote name=Berselius]He said average velocity, not average speed RC
Is that like a vector joke?
I don’t have the stopwatch, but I just froze it when the ball was about halfway there and it was on 2 seconds. I then froze it again right as Campana crossed home and it was 16 seconds. Can’t be sure, but i think it took him just under 14 seconds from contact to the time he crossed the plate. If he didn’t slow up just a bit there’s no doubt he crosses the plate in under 14 seconds.
Did I say Campana was really fast?
[quote name=JMan]I wish the Cubs could teach campana how to be extremely patient and learn to take a ton of walks. Unless he’s Ichiro and has extreme bat control he has no business just slapping the ball. Just take a walk or hit line drive singles.[/quote]
Isn’t that what Rudy J is for?
Kreutz ———-> NO
[quote name=Aisle424]That is the most bullshit rule ever. He was so bad he completely missed a ball he should have at least knowcked down and he doesn’t get an error.
Oh well, that’s nice for Campana.[/quote]I don’t know if it should have been an error or not, but the fact it’s ruled a home run isn’t what impresses me. By the end of the season I won’t remember anything other than Campana going from contact to home in under 14 seconds. Error or not, that’s what I find to be damn impressive. Dude is fast. (dying laughing)
I bet tony only hits inside the park homeruns in his career.. That will not be his last
Trying to pull up the Soto inside-the-park HR on mlb.com, but I’m getting an error for some reason.
colvin has now hit 4 homeruns against mike leake.. Jesus
[quote name=ACT]Trying to pull up the Soto inside-the-park HR on mlb.com, but I’m getting an error for some reason.[/quote]
It was in Houston and bounced off the yellow line and away from whoever was in CF at the time (I think it was Bourn). I think they also said it was a legitimate homer after replay review.
No, not that kind of error. I mean the website has an error.
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]colvin has now hit 4 homeruns against mike leake.. Jesus[/quote]According to L&B all of his hits against Leake were HRs.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Is that like a vector joke?[/quote]Yes
[quote name=josh]So he ran in a circle?[/quote]Well a diamond, but his final position and initial position were the same, so net distance = 0.
Irony…the “Rent is too damn high” guy is going to be evicted…
http://news.yahoo.com/nys-rent-too-damn-high-candidate-faces-eviction-114828356.html
[quote name=WaLi]Well, a Diamond, but his final position and initial position were the same, so net distance = 0.[/quote]He had some good angular velocity, though.
That ball kicked out on Alonso at about a 90 degree angle for what it’s worth.
[quote name=mb21]That ball kicked out on Alonso at about a 90 degree angle for what it’s worth.[/quote]He looked like he misjudged the wall as well.
Wow I didn’t realize that Campana’s HR was really the first HR he’s hit at ANY professional level.
[quote name=josh]He looked like he misjudged the wall as well.[/quote]
He did. He shouldn’t have gotten so close to the wall, but it did take an unusual bounce.
[quote name=JMan]Wow I didn’t realize that Campana’s HR was really the first HR he’s hit at ANY professional level.[/quote]
Wonder if he hit one in high school or college.
What’s the difference between a duck with a cold and you?
Ht hit 3 in college: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=/Tony-Campana.shtml
[quote name=mb21]Ht hit 3 in college: http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=/Tony-Campana.shtml/quotePower 13, speed 96 (dying laughing). I’m guessing those 3 are inside the park.
The power of aluminum…
He almost made a nice catch on that Mike Leake single but the ball popped out of his glove.
[quote name=Rice Cube]The power of aluminum…
He almost made a nice catch on that Mike Leake single but the ball popped out of his glove.[/quote]I know it was a tough play, but if he can make those kinds of plays consistently, he could really add to his value.
[quote name=josh]I know it was a tough play, but if he can make those kinds of plays consistently, he could really add to his value.[/quote]
I thought he had it. I’m just glad he didn’t misjudge it or else that was an inside-the-park homer for Leake (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]I thought he had it. I’m just glad he didn’t misjudge it or else that was an inside-the-park homer for Leake (dying laughing)[/quote]I’m pretty sure Tony could have run it down, then run in and tagged Leake before he got home.
[quote name=josh]I’m pretty sure Tony could have run it down, then run in and tagged Leake before he got home.[/quote]
He can probably outrun his throws.
[quote name=mb21]Campana is really, really, really, really fast. I mean he’s really fast.[/quote]Could he outrun the Flash?
[quote name=ACT]Could he outrun the Flash?[/quote]
Tony Campana catches tachyons for breakfast.
/slightly obscure if you’re not a geek Crisis reference
I didn’t know the story about A-Rod being at a poker game was from some source: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110805&content_id=22781808&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
He knows someone who knows someone. The source must be Saul Goodman.
[quote name=ACT]Could he outrun the Flash?[/quote]Correct.
Can Superman outrun the Flash?
[quote name=ACT]Could he outrun the Flash?[/quote]Can Superman outrun the Flash?
(dying laughing) nice ACT
[quote name=ACT]Can Superman outrun the Flash?[/quote]
They actually did this several times in the DC Comics universe. I think they usually called it a tie.
[quote name=ACT]Can Superman outrun the Flash?[/quote]
Would you ask Tom Petty that question?
Can superman outrun the Flash?
[quote name=Berselius]Would you ask Tom Petty that question?[/quote]
Don’t come around here no more.
I routinely forget that dewitt is on this team
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]I routinely forget that dewitt is on this team[/quote]Careful. That’s an untouchable you’re talking about there.
Soriano OBP —> .277
If you’re Koyie Hill, how does it feel to have Tyler Fucking Colvin intentionally walked in front of you? The guy has twice as many strikeouts as hits.
[quote name=uncle dave]If you’re Koyie Hill, how does it feel to have Tyler Fucking Colvin intentionally walked in front of you? The guy has twice as many strikeouts as hits.[/quote]That’s how bad this team is. You can IBB Tyler Colvin and get to a worse hitter who isn’t a pitcher (dying laughing).
There’s the Cubs I know and love.
Bases loaded, less than two outs, score nothing…it’s a way of life.
Have yall seen this?
http://www2.oanow.com/news/2011/jul/29/5/operation-iron-snare-98679-vi-87446/
Campana’s little league arm prevents a double play.
[quote name=josh]Campana’s little league arm prevents a double play.[/quote]
That throw had much better distance than I would have expected
Campana ————> Sam Fuld after this game’s events
[quote name=Berselius]Campana ————> Sam Fuld after this game’s events[/quote]I believe you mean Super Sam.
[quote name=Berselius]Campana ————> Sam Fuld after this game’s events[/quote]
He’s not half the man Sam Fuld is.
/short joke
[quote name=Rice Cube]He’s not half the man Sam Fuld is.
/Penis joke[/quote]
/Faget’d
Also probably could have gone with a “dick high” joke there. Whatever.
By DeRosa’s beard, I want to hit this booth guest in the face
[quote name=Berselius]By DeRosa’s beard, I want to hit this booth guest in the face[/quote]
By the Hammer of Grabthar, you will be avenged.
It’s the Tony Campana show today.
[quote name=Berselius]That throw had much better distance than I would have expected[/quote]It had distance, but only because it he rainbowed it in off line.
Campana is fast as shit. He will be a productive 5th outfielder in the majors. I mean he is stupid fast
(dying laughing), at that check swing call
Campana with a baserunning mistake.
Yeah, he should have scored from second on that sac fly.
i thught peeeenya blasted that one
[quote name=ACT]Yeah, he should have scored from second on that sac fly.[/quote]At least once.
That was one of the least surprising HR ever. I wonder how long until Wood is demoted from the setup role.
I wonder how many people are going to turn on Kerry Wood if they haven’t already.
bullpen time!!!
I smell a bunt.
DOnt know how Kerrys ERA is as low as it is.. He seems to have been bad a lot this year
Color me amazed that Dusty didn’t call the bunt with a runner on second and no outs. I’m glad he didn’t, I’m just amazed because that was a conventional auto-bunt situation (dying laughing)
kkk i like wood
wow, hard to believe that Chapman has never faced the Cubs
Castro is just great at sports
That was a really dumb send
Bad send? I didn’t see it. Didn’t sound close.
There you go.
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]kkk i like wood[/quote]
Racist.
(dying laughing)
Marmol
The Cubs are ruining dreams left and right this week. If we can’t go, we’re taking a few down with us.
I don’t think the send in the ninth was bad. There were 2 outs, so you have to be very aggressive.
Watching Hill bat against Chapman was funny.
i do like it when the cubs win
Another winning streak in a lost season will only serve to give us another bad team in 2012.
It’s nice to see the Cubs win, I suppose, but this is still a bad team with a roster that needs some serious work in the offseason. All this current winning streak is doing is making Ricketts feel vindicated by his injuries excuse and saving the jobs of Hendry and Quade.
(dying laughing)
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17665881
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Another winning streak in a lost season will only serve to give us another bad team in 2012.
It’s nice to see the Cubs win, I suppose, but this is still a bad team with a roster that needs some serious work in the offseason. All this current winning streak is doing is making Ricketts feel vindicated by his injuries excuse and saving the jobs of Hendry and Quade.[/quote]
There’s plenty of bad baseball left to be played, MO (dying laughing). Keep in mind that the team is still 17 games under .500
[quote name=Berselius]There’s plenty of bad baseball left to be played, MO (dying laughing). Keep in mind that the team is still 17 games under .500[/quote]They made a managerial decision on the basis of 37 games. I put nothing past this org. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube](dying laughing)
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17665881/quoteGetting Z to whiff is no big deal. I’d be more impressed if she found a way to walk him.
[quote name=Berselius]Campana ————> Sam Fuld after this game’s events[/quote]
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/the-cubs-and-their-trade-deadline-decisions.html