The Cubs finally got their first series win of the year! Things are looking up….except that they just barely avoid having the worst record in the NL (mostly due to opportunity – the Padres are 6-14). It already feels like forever since the last Cubs game. The series was the Cardinals was a nice reminder that not every game will be a dreary slog to 100 losses, but good feelings have faded quickly after a lackluster day game loss, an off day, then a night game gave us plenty of time to remember that the 2012 Cubs are the 2012 Cubs.
The Phillies are coming off a ten-day west coast road trip, so they could be a little jetlagged. They split a series with the Giants, dropped two of three to the aforementioned Padres, and won a series with the DBacks. The Phillies were the popular pick again given the arms in their rotation, but this team got old in a hurry. I still ended up picking them to win the division but as each day passes I become more and more convinced that this is the Nationals' year.
Team Overviews
Team stats and NL ranks
| Cubs | Philies | |
| wOBA | .278 (15th) | .290 (13th) |
| BSR | 1.7 (2nd) | -0.1 (10th) |
| UZR | -1.3 (10th) | 8.4 (1st) |
| DRS | -9 (12th) | 1 (5th) |
| SP FIP | 3.46 (6th) | 3.05 (2nd) |
| RP FIP | 4.60 (16th) | 3.82 (11th) |
The Cubs bullpen blows. The next worst relievers' FIP is the Astros at 4.08. I would guess that it could just be HR luck, but the Cubs pen's HR/FB% is 7.7%, and their NL-worst xFIP is 5.03 compared to the next worst (Astros again) at 4.29.
Lineups
Current wOBA / ZiPS projected wOBA
| Cubs | wOBA | wOBA | Phillies |
| RF David DeJesus | .322 / .328 | ,321 / .300 | LF Juan (dying laughing) |
| CF Tony Campana | .438 / .298 | .260 / .301 | 3B Placido Polanco |
| SS Starlin Castro | .360 / .336 | .249 / .324 | SS Jimmy Rollins |
| 1B Bryan LaHair | .482 / .351 | .326 / .339 | RF Hunter Pence |
| LF Alfonso Soriano | .210 / .312 | .342 / .346 | CF Shane Victorino |
| 3B Ian Stewart | .227 / .308 | .165 / .355 | 1B Not Ryan Howard |
| C Geovany Soto | .199 / .325 | .335 / .324 | C Carlos Ruiz |
| 2B Darwin Barney | .332 / .297 | .245 / .285 | 2B Not Chase Utley |
Freddy Galvis has picked up most of the time at 2B with Chase Utley out, and a mashup of Ty Wigginton, Jim Thome (numbers above), and Laynce Nix have been filling in for Howard. When the regulars are in this lineup they've got some thump, but given the lineup's age that's not going to happen too often.
Injuries
Dempster is on track to return from teh DL with minimum time missed, and Wood has been throwing off a mound.
The Phillies are missing three of their big name players to injuries. Cliff Lee is out with a side muscle strain but shouldn't be shelved for very long. Utley is still out indefinitely with his chronic knee problems, and Ryan Howard has recently had a setback in his rehab from Achilles tendon surgery at the end of last year. The 5 year extension kicked in three weeks ago!
Pitching Matchups
ERA, FIP, xFIP, ZiPS FIP listed for all pitchers
Friday: Paul Maholm, LHP (8.36, 6.54, 5.41, 4.00) vs Roy Halladay, RHP (1.50, 2.63, 3.90, 2.62), 6:05 PM CT
Paul Maholm finally had a Paul Maholm-y start in his last time out against the Reds. He threw 6 innings, got twelve grounders, and kept the ball in the yard. If memory serves me correctly the conditions were very pitcher-friendly, and it sounds like the same will be true in Philly tonight. He'll need all the help he can get against his opposite number.
At least we'll get to see the Cubs offense get dominated by a good pitcher today, instead of the Bronson Arroyos of the league. Given the conditions and the lineup the National Weather Service should issue a No-Hitter Watch for the Philadelphia area.
Saturday: Randy Wells, RHP (3.60, 5.10, 6.73, 4.31) vs Joe Blanton, RHP (4.34, 3.48, 4.47, 4.01), 6:05 PM CT
Small sample sizes apply as always, but I wonder at what point I'll cut bait on believing in Randy Wells. A big part of my objection to Samardzija's move to the rotation was the possiblity that the Cubs would give up on Wells. On the one hand, he was injured last year and the Cubs rushed him back too soon, so I don't think people are giving him enough credit for his first two years in the majors. On the other hand, aside from what looked like the good kind of regression late last year he's pitched like shit, and maybe the injury has something to do with that too. He was hit hard and had trouble finding the plate in his first start, and wasn't looking so hot in his minor league starts with the I-Cubs before his callup.
Blanton is a pitcher whose skills I always misremember. I always think of him as a high-strikeout, high-walk, high-pitch count, flyball kind of pitcher, while over his career he's been much more of a walk-averse pitcher who encourages batters to put the ball in play. He's pitched decently enough this year, and was only hit particularly hard by the Giants in his third start.
Sunday: Matt Garza, RHP (3.38, 3.53, 3.35, 3.36) vs Kyle Kendrick, RHP (9.39, 5.76, 6.38, 4.51), 12:35 PM CT
Kendrick has been the Phillies break-in-case-of-emergency starter since 2007, and he's somehow made nearly 100 starts with the Phillies despite providing an average of ~0.3 WAR per season over that time. He has a career 4.13 K/9 without the particularly impressive GB% to make up for it, and is quite homer-prone.
Garza's numbers are still tracking fairly well with last year's transformation. His GB% is sitting at 43.3% after four starts, which is closer to the 46.3% from last year than his more FB-heavy numbers in Tampa.
Monday: Chris Volstad, RHP (6.14, 3.17, 3.60, 4.41) vs Vance Worley, RHP (2.16, 4.02, 2.75, 3.72), 6:05 PM CT
This would normally be Samardzija's spot in the rotation but the Cubs are going to give him more time off when they can since he has largely been in the pen over the past few years. Volstad was cruising along in his last start before running out of steam in the 6th, giving up four runs in six innings. That's all another team generally needs against the Cubs offense. His peripherals continue to look good but he continues to look hittable on the mound.
Worley picked up 21 starts for the Phils last year and had a great rookie debut, posting a 3.01 ERA (3.22 FIP) in 131 innings. He's more like the image I have of Blanton, lots of strikeouts, lots of pitches, lots of flyballs, but he hasn't been particularly homer-prone as yet. I would have guessed that he was a big fastball guy but it tops out around 90-91.
Comments
Where’s your prediction, B? Cubs get swept?
MuckerQuote Reply
We have altered the previews, only Premium subscribers get access to my Deadly Accurate predictions. Pray we do not alter it any further.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I think the Cubs might split.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
This deal is getting worse all the time.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
(dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
This is the (National’s) Year!
MishQuote Reply
Sorry if this was posted, but Bryce Harper ——> Major Leagues
MishQuote Reply
Chicago folks, the brewery in St. Louis that I help out is going to be a part of a Chicago Craft Beer Week event on May 22 at The Green Lady on Lincoln. I’ll also be there. Come on by and have a beer or seven if you like.
http://sixrowbrewco.blogspot.com/2012/04/six-row-is-coming-to-chicago-for-one.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
^^I’d totally come but I’m going to be out of town that week. Shit.
MishQuote Reply
Harper’s MLE: .197/.255/.301
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
BUST
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
(dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
He’ll fail because he’s untested.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Transformed
mb21Quote Reply
Mish wrote:
Tell Robin to handle shit on his own for once.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Why would the Nats want to trigger Harper’s arb clock already?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Roy Halladay figured out that you could get Sori out by throwing him breaking balls.
ACTQuote Reply
Mish wrote:
mb21Quote Reply
@ ACT:
I worry about other pitchers figuring this secret out. Sori could have some serious problems getting on base if that happens.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
He’s got the 7th season already.
mb21Quote Reply
Z is wild so far.
ACTQuote Reply
Bunting Win!!
joshQuote Reply
Tony Campana doing Tony Campana things
BerseliusQuote Reply
Starlin Castro swings at an obvious ball 4, but gets a lucky bloop RBI single.
ACTQuote Reply
Also, DeJesus got hosed. He watched what should have been ball 4 go by twice.
ACTQuote Reply
Campy not only gets the bunt single but the head first slide into first for extra grinder points.
melissaQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I think I read that they’d still get 7 years out of him at this point, but he would become a Super 2. With Zimmerman hurt, the pitching going well, and maybe most importantly, the Phillies unable to score runs, they might view themselves as having a shot at it. Surely the extra WC spot helps them.
That’s what I THINK the thinking is. Hell if I know. (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
@ melissa:
BUT he did it to avoid a tag, which is the only reason you should ever slide into first, I think.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I never said he shouldn’t have done it or it was needless. Had it been needless then he would have been awarded even more grinder points.
melissaQuote Reply
Tony is so grindy it’s like he didn’t eat his meat and got turned into pudding.
WaLi22Quote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhe3vSe-mmw
ACTQuote Reply
Seriously, they had Doc on the ropes for a while there and ended it with a bizarre double play.
ACTQuote Reply
Only the Cubs (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Gee, I’d love to, but . . . Berselius was . . . taken prisoner in the . . .Holy Land . . .
GBTSQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Explain how!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Actually I probably will come.
GBTSQuote Reply
Why is Maholm being allowed to bat in the seventh?
ACTQuote Reply
Never mind, saw the replay. (dying laughing) x 2 or 288
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Oh, I see. So he could face 2 more batters. Makes perfect sense.
ACTQuote Reply
@ melissa:
We should dissect Tony and see why he is so fast. Prediction: fast twitch muscles, spit, vinegar.
joshQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Sounded like if Soriano breaks immediately, he’s going to be draw the throw, and if he hesitates, Stewart blocked him. Tough play for Soriano, the way things sounded.
joshQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I sort of agree with it. Geo hadn’t gotten on base. Maholm was under 100 pitches (despite his injury history) and was cruising. If Geo had gotten on I think Maholm gets pinch-hit for.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
14 grounders to 4 liners/flyballs for Maholm today. Good.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ josh:
Stewart was on 3B already and that meant Soriano no longer had the right to that base if I understand the rules right.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Green = ball, red = strike
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
He probably should have gone for full bore either way. If he draws the throw, it’s only one out.
joshQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
He has been mistaking balls and strikes all night. Buckner.
WaLi22Quote Reply
@ josh:
I think he initially went back to 3B but didn’t see Stewart had broke there until too late. Indecisive, forced hand, whatever. Stupid on all fronts (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Looked like Campana should’ve just struck out on pitch four.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
There was another that was higher in the zone that was also called a ball.
joshQuote Reply
WTF with the TOOTBLANs.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Castro is a terrible slider. He always has been.
joshQuote Reply
I was pretty annoyed by the decision to let Castro run. SSS and all, he’s never had much success in stealing third.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Cubs.
WaLi22Quote Reply
@ ACT:
I do not agree with trying to steal 3B anyway since he was already in scoring position.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, but that’s probably because Sori should have broke for home and Stewart was expecting him to do that.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
It would appear that the contact play was on and Soriano had a brain fart.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Third is difficult. It seems like it takes more smarts than speed. Still, he had it stolen with a good slide.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
It’s a bigger risk, to be sure, but with one out there’s actually a greater benefit (in terms of RE) in stealing third as opposed to second.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Pitchers get worse each time through the order. And a pinch-hitter is vastly better than a pitcher.
ACTQuote Reply
Cardinals obliterated Gallardo today. 8 runs in 2 innings
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I wouldn’t care if it weren’t the Cardinals. Screw those guys in the tear duct.
joshQuote Reply
MisTBLAN by Pence
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
Is that like a misting station?
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Missed the ball like a nincompoop.
When I think misting stations, my mind jumps right to getting misted by urine. I don’t know why, but there it is.
joshQuote Reply
And the Cubs beat Roy Fucken Halladay.
Hell yeah!
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
…which they do surprisingly often.
ACTQuote Reply
I hate when you’re trying to watch highlights and a Live Peak In pops up instead. And it’s the Orioles. That’s the worst.
joshQuote Reply
opposing starters in the cubs’ seven wins: halladay, greinke, wainwright x2, jordan zimmermann, jaime garcia, mike leake
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
To their credit, Wainwright sucks this year. Doesn’t he?
joshQuote Reply
@ GW:
If this pattern holds, The Cubs should do really well against a WS or playoff team. Or, better yet, an All-Star team.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Right now Phillies fans are feeling like we used to feel in 2009 when the Cubs would lose the Nationals.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I don’t think so. His K rate and walk rate both look good, as does his groundball rate. I think he’s been unlucky so far.
ACTQuote Reply
@ josh:
periphs are still great, aside from the homerun rate
GWQuote Reply
Mauer hit a double and a triple, and cancelled his membership to the OBP>SLG club.
ACTQuote Reply
@ GW:
IIRC Wainwright’s LD% was pretty high
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
It’s not; it’s right in line with his career rate. And I don’t trust those numbers, anyway (if a ball goes for a hit, it’s more likely to be classified as a liner, I think).
ACTQuote Reply
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2012/04/27/first-lady-michelle-obama-admits-shes-a-cubs-fan/?hpt=us_bn6
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I guess I should clarify – it was pretty high when I wrote the preview before the Cubs-Cards series, must have dropped from that outing
/Small sample sizes
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ ACT:
All right, I only saw some blurb before the game, so I wasn’t paying much attention. Even if he had sucked to date, I’d expect him to finish strong.
joshQuote Reply
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20961081&c_id=mlb
My only question is, why did Doc throw to first? Did he know he would be able to get a double play?
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
I think he thought he had chases Sori back, so he went for the sure out. Sori saw that Stewart had advanced and then had to go.
Yeah, when he looks, Soriano retreats, so he immediately turns to first when he sees that. It was a good play by Halladay, really. He looked the runner back and made a good throw. That’s what you want from a pitcher.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Makes sense. I wish Soriano had kept running, though. That would have probably stopped the double play. It was an awkward situation he found himself in, though.
ACTQuote Reply
Bob kind of makes fun of Pence on Reedz’s hit, but the angle Pence took on that one, he didn’t have much choice but to leave his feet and try to trap it. It was a pretty hard liner. His only other option really would have been to run immediately toward the wall. That was a tough play.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20965461&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tcid=vpp_copy_20965461&v=3
joshQuote Reply
@ ACT:
That’s what I think. If Sori runs, it’s two outs, runner on 3rd.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Human element!
GBTSQuote Reply
The Rox scored 11 runs in an inning.
ACTQuote Reply
Welington Castillo ——-> Cubs
?????? ——–> Not Cubs
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Wut.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I’m confused, too. How many catchers do they need?
ACTQuote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
No corresponding move that I’ve seen. Possibly a trade in the works?
Aisle424Quote Reply
Mike Trout was also called up.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
soto trade pending?
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
That is the only thing that makes remote sense to me if they’re calling up Beef Castle.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
GW wrote:
An injury is possible too. Haven’t seen anything. Everybody seems to be shocked by the move.
Aisle424Quote Reply
ACTQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Soto played the whole game though. Unless he fell down the stairs or something an injury seems unlikely…?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Maybe Clevenger hurt something?
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
They don’t use the backup catcher in the bullpen, do they? I can’t imagine how he could be injured if he were on the bench. Unless he sneezed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
New shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/welcome-back-welington.html
Aisle424Quote Reply