Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (40-57) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (53-46)

@ GW:
Hellweg walks a ton, but Pena walks quite a bit too. Good year this year in AA, but he’s not terribly young (23). He walked 4.8 per 9 last year and over 5 the year before. Under 4 this year, but that’s concerning. Segura is a grade B, Pena a C+ and Hellweg is a throw in. About $10 million in value for Segura, $1.5 million for Pena. Total value close to $12 million.

Also sounds like Segura is an injury waiting to happen.

Baseball America on him

Background: After a broken ankle in 2008 and broken finger in 2009, Segura stayed healthy and broke out in 2010 at low Class A Cedar Rapids. But the injury bug returned last year as he missed all but 52 games with a torn hamstring.

Scouting Report: Segura matured as a hitter in 2011, demonstrating a willingness to use the entire field and a more patient approach that put him in hitter’s counts more frequently. His strength and explosive, quick-twitch actions excite evaluators almost as much as his short, direct swing. His bat is lightning-quick, and he could consistently bat .290 with as many as 20 homers at his peak because he hits all types of pitches. Scouts regard Segura as an above-average runner, though they qualify that grade by describing his body type as “heavy-legged” or “thick.” His arm also grades as plus, which prompted the Angels to move Segura from second base to shortstop last year. His hands and throwing accuracy probably won’t play at the position long-term. He has average range at both spots.

The Future: Despite his injuries, the Angels protected Segura on the 40-man roster in November. He could play shortstop as he climbs to Double-A, but most scouts expect him to man the keystone in the majors, and no later than 2013—if he stays healthy.

Pena

Background: Signed as a 17-year-old, Pena spent three years in Rookie ball and has pitched just four innings above Class A in five pro seasons. After he ranked second in the high Class A California League with 180 strikeouts last year, he earned a place on the Angels’ 40-man roster in November.

Scouting Report: Pena always has shown plus velocity on his fastball and slider, but his shaky command has held him back. He sits at 92-94 mph with his sinker and touches 98 with his four-seamer, showing explosive life when he stays on top of the ball. He throws a hard, late slider at 82-86 mph, getting both called strikes and swings and misses. He flashes a fringy changeup in the low 80s but lacks consistent feel for it. Though he’s big and durable, Pena’s delivery features enough effort to prompt some scouts to project him as a reliever. He leaves too many pitches up and to his arm side, while he also jabs at the back of his arm stroke and often loses balance in his delivery, causing his arm to rush to catch up with the rest of his body.

The Future: Pena can be nearly unhittable when his fastball and slider are working, but he’ll have to cut his walk rate (5.3 per nine innings in full-season leagues) to stay in the rotation. He’ll begin 2012 in Double-A.

Also, we have to expect Pena to regress toward his career percentage as he moves up. 23 in AA and struggling with command is nothing impressive. He doesn’t have much shot as a starter in my opinion. If I was running things in MIlwaukee, I’d move him to AAA and put him in the bullpen. That’s where his future is and unless the Brewers see something they think they can fix, I think he’s shown enough in his career to show he’s probably not going to have good enough control to get by at the big leagues as a starter. With the exception of this year he hasn’t been too difficult to hit either. Especially not with the fastball/slider combo he has.

Still a really good deal for the Brewers though.

By the way, I expected the Cubs to get a couple of Pena’s in a deal for Dempster assuming they send all the salary (that’s what I’d have expected last month anyway). Guys with upside, but probably a little older than you’d like at the level and certainly with some issues.

@ GW:
Oh I agree with that.

@ GW:
Yeah, but when you see guys with the kind of experience he had allowing so few hits you’re usually looking at an elite prospect. Obviously Marmol had command issues, but compared to Pena at the same age, I’d much much rather have Marmol. He was learning along the way because he’d never really done it and he was doing it well. Here’s a story for you. I was once told by someone who worked with Marmol for several years (both as a catcher and as a pitcher) that worst case scenario with him was that he’d become an unhittable reliever with command issues. It’s just so Cub that he became an unhittable reliever with control issues. (dying laughing)

@ josh:
They’re trying to include him with Dempster to get Kershaw.

@ josh:
Correct. Seez would be the Quadification of his name.

Anyone see the first season of Boss? Trying to figure out if I want to watch it.

@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’m guessing if they plan on spending $100 million plus it will be on Hamilton so I doubt they’d have interest in signing him. Just a guess.

@ josh:
As much as I’d like to see that, mostly for personal reasons, I think he’s probably in the right environment that he needs to be in. I would trust Thoyer to help him establish the necessary support system, but he’s probably better off where he is.

Plus, it’s much more likely I’ll still be a Cubs fan if he doesn’t come to the Cubs. I can’t imagine what nasty things would be said about him by the fans the first time he has a bad month. You know, considering how sympathetic people are toward drug addicts and all.