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  • Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (38-53) at St. Louis Cardinals (47-45)

    The Cardinals continue their streak of being the reverse-Diamondbacks this season, sitting at 2 games above .500 despite the best run differential in the National League. Clearly they are missing Ryan Theriot's clubhouse presence.

    Team Overviews

    NL Rank in parentheses

      Cubs Cardinals
    wOBA .299 (13th) .334 (2nd)
    BSR 2.8 (5th) -2.3 (11th)
    UZR 11.9 (3rd) -18.5 (14th)
    DRS +18 (4th) 0 (5th)
    SP FIP 4.03 (12th) 3.44 (2nd)
    RP FIP 4.74 (16th) 4.40 (15th)

    Cubs bullpen watch: the Cubs pen still has the worst numbers in the majors. The next worst is the Blue Jays at 4.45. After factoring park adjustments, etc., the Cubs pen has been worth -1.1 WAR, and the next worst is the Cards at -0.9. Expect to see many runs scored late in this series.

    Position Players

    The Cardinals offense has five players who have posted double digit wRAA in Allen Craig (15.3 in less limited duty than I thought), Matt Holliday (22.8), Carlos Beltran (18.4), Yadier Molina (16.5), and postseason hero David Freese (14.3). Lance Berkman has also hit the ball well when he's managed to get on the field. Even Skip Schumaker has a .350+ wOBA. The team can hit. Only middle infielders Daniel Descalso and Rafael Furcal have had below average years at the plate.

    Injury Update

    The most notable Cardinals injury is to the Good Chris Carpenter, who is donezo for the year after having shoulder surgery yesterday. He was working his way back from an injury in spring training but the weakness in his shoulder did not go away in his rehab. The Cardinals are also without Jaime Garcia, who strained his shoulder in the beginning of June. He's not expected back for another month. Kyle McClellan hit the DL in May with elbow problems, and then developed a season-ending shoulder injury during his rehab. Matt Holliday is day to day after being hit by a pitch last week, and Lance Berkman is still bouncing back from his knee surgery.

    Probable Pitchers

    Friday: Ryan Dempster, RHP (1.86, 3.13, 3.71, 3.90) vs Kyle Lohse, RHP (2.80, 3.70, 4.23, 3.91), 7:15 PM CT

    You might have heard this before, but this could be Dempster's last start for the Cubs. Rumors continue to swirl around Dempster but the Cubs still might keep him around for the chance at the sandwich round pick in next year's draft. He's currently riding a 33 inning scoreless streak and would be a great pickup for any team that wants to give up a top prospect for him (please!).

    Lohse is having yet another bafflingly good year as a Cardinal, he's never been one to strike out many batters, but the biggest difference since coming to the Cardinals has been his sudden ability to suppress HRs. He had a bad year in 2010 (6.55 ERA), but a large part of that was his shockingly low 59% strand rate and an injury.

    Saturday: Matt Garza, RHP (4.02, 4.16, 3.56, 3.71) vs Jake Westbrook, RHP (3.82, 3.61, 3.70, 3.94), 6:15 PM CT (FOX)

    Speaking of players probably making their last start, Garza shut out the DBacks for seven innings in his last start. His peripherals are looking good this season, hopefully any potential trade partners take note that his GB% is even better than last year's, and his HR rate is inflated by a 16.3% HR/FB ratio.

    Westbrook is doing Westbrook things this year, killing worms and keeping the ball in the park. His walk rate, a big problem early in last season, has dropped to the All-Star levels that he posted when he was an elite pitcher with Cleveland.

    Sunday: Travis Wood, LHP (3.92, 4.88, 4.53, 4.20) vs Lance Lynn, RHP (3.27, 3.24, 3.35, 3.72), 1:15 PM CT

    Travis Wood put together a great stretch of pitching in the seven starts since his disatrous four HR start against the Padres. However, he was wrecked for eight runs at the hands of the Marlins in his last start. His strikeout and walk rates are right in line with what he gave the Reds last year, and while he's still a FB pitcher he's seen a rise in his GB rate this year.

    Lynn's having a fantastic rookie season, striking out a ton of batters and posting a 3.24 FIP, but most of the groundswell for his All-Star candidacy was derived from his double digit win total. He's at 110 innings after pitching about that many last year, so fatigue should be setting in soon.

    Berselius
    He's got a two day head start on you, which is more than he needs. He's got friends in every town and village from here to the Sudan, he speaks a dozen languages, knows every local custom, he'll blend in, disappear, you'll never see him again. With any luck, he's got the grail already.
    Berselius

    20 Responses to “Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (38-53) at St. Louis Cardinals (47-45)”

    1. josh 1 josh says:

      Wasn’t Lance Lynn in the bullpen when Tony somehow called for the wrong dude?

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    2. Rice Cube 2 Rice Cube says:

      @ josh:
      I thought Tony used Lynn by mistake in game six and then had to replace him in a hurry. Lynn was involved though to my recollection.

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    3. josh 3 josh says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      Yeah, that’s what I was thinking. I guess I just thought he was an old reliever or something. Didn’t realize he was a rookie.

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    4. josh 4 josh says:

      Anyone know what the most the Cubs have come from behind this year is? it seems like whenever they get down more than a couple, they are basically guaranteed to lose this year.

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    5. Berselius 5 Berselius says:

      @ josh:

      There’s still time for them to score 2 runs in the 9th and lost 4-3

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    6. josh 6 josh says:

      @ Berselius:
      well, yeah, that’s inevitable.

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    7. josh 7 josh says:

      On the replay, the Cards announcer said Matt Holliday was “not a homerun hitter.” WTF?

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    8. josh 8 josh says:

      Oh, shit, was that the entire inning?

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    9. Rice Cube 9 Rice Cube says:

      @ josh:
      Yea, verily, m’lord, for the Cubs had dinner reservations.

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    10. josh 10 josh says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      Games like this make it hard to bring the funny.

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    11. josh 11 josh says:

      Ergo, this:

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    12. Rice Cube 12 Rice Cube says:

      I wonder if the Cubs had won the World Series by the time baseball shut down as a professional sport as foretold in Star Trek: Deep Space Nine.

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    13. Rizzo the Rat 13 Rizzo the Rat says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      Back to the Future says yes.

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    14. Rice Cube 14 Rice Cube says:

      @ Rizzo the Rat:
      Oooh, a crossover…very nice.

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    15. Rice Cube 15 Rice Cube says:

      I-Cubs pitching is pretty terrible.

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    16. Aisle424 16 Aisle424 says:

      Rice Cube wrote:

      Cubs pitching is pretty terrible.

      Fixed.

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    17. Rice Cube 17 Rice Cube says:

      Thome > Sosa (at least on the all-time home run chart)

      http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=23182939&topic_id=17807232

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    18. josh 18 josh says:

      Aisle424 wrote:

      Cubs are pretty terrible.

      Fixed.

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    19. josh 19 josh says:

      @ josh:
      *Sobbing uncontrollably*

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