The Cubs stumble into their next opponent having lost all three series so far this year. They'll face the Marlins and their hideous HR structure. Thank DeRosa that this series is being played in Miami and not Chicago – the media firestorm with Ozzie's return after suspension from his recent comments and the mere existence of Carlos Zambrano would be fanned even further by the Chicago papers if the teams were playing at Wrigley. Z has been doing Z things with the Marlins, walking a bunch of batters and racking up big pitch counts. He was in position to "win" both of the games he started, but fellow newcomer Heath Bell blew the save each time.
Team Matchups
I'll switch to this season's stats. NL Rank in parens.
| Cubs | Marlins | |
| wOBA | .285 (13th) | .293 (10th) |
| Baserunning | 0.8 (5th) | -1.1 (13th) |
| UZR | 3.9 (3rd) | -5.8 (15th) |
| DRS | 2 (4th) | -13 (16th) |
| SP FIP | 3.47 (8th) | 3.71 (10th) |
| RP FIP | 4.56 (15th) | 4.30 (14th) |
Lineups
Updated ZiPS projections for all players
| Cubs | wOBA | wOBA | Marlins |
| RF David DeJesus | .330 | .354 | SS Jose Reyes |
| 2B Darwin Barney | .291 | .308 | CF Emilio Bonifacio |
| SS Starlin Castro | .338 | .358 | 3B Hanley Ramirez |
| LF Alfonso Soriano | .318 | .377 | RF Giancarlo Stanton |
| 3B Ian Stewart | .313 | .349 | LF Logan Morrison |
| 1B Bryan LaHair | .343 | .337 | 1B Gaby Sanchez |
| C Geovany Soto | .328 | .318 | 2B Omar Infante |
| CF Marlon Byrd | .314 | .304 | C John Buck |
The Marlins have some thunder in that lineup. Jose Reyes has gotten off to a bad start to the season, posting a .238/.289/.357 line. I'm sure Marlins fans are clamoring for him to be replaced by some replacement level SS in the minors (see: Geovany Soto's slow start).
Injuries
Stanton has a sore left knee and is day to day. Former fireballing Cubs bullpen prospect Jose Ceda had Tommy John surgery last week. No word on whether the Marlins are planning on reopening the Kevin Gregg compensation.
Pitching Matchups
ERA, FIP, xFIP, and ZiPS FIP in parens
Tuesday: Ryan Dempster, RHP (1.88, 2.95, 3.11, 3.94) vs Josh Johnson, RHP (8.38, 2.78, 3.50, 2.69), 6:05 PM CT
Dempster followed up his stellar ten strikeout opening day with a merely very good outing against the Brewers. Dempster struck out five and walked three in 6 2/3 and took the loss in a game where the Cubs couldn't get much going offensively. He's the beneficiary of a .176 BABIP on the season #funwithsmallsamplesizes
On the flip side, Johnson's poor numbers seem to be entirely due to batted ball luck (.488 BABIP). He hasn't given up any homers (helped in part by their humongous park), but hitters are hitting him hard so far too. He's given up 15 line drives in his two starts, and his strikeout rates are way down. He's coming off of surgery last year so that could be playing a major role.
Wednesday: Matt Garza, RHP (1.23, 2.48, 2.63, 3.34) vs Mark Buehrle, LHP (3.65, 4.59, 4.16, 3.78), 6:05 PM CT
If Steve Trachsel was the Human Rain Delay, what does that make Mark Buehrle? He's scuffled a bit with his new team and has had some trouble with home runs but he's mostly been as advertised.
Garza blew his chance at a shutout his last time out by throwing the 27th out 15 rows into the stands. It's always so strange to see just how awful he is at fielding the position.
Thursday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.95, 2.15, 2.72, 4.18) vs Matt Cain and Felix Pie, RHP (3.46, 4.35, 3.73, 3.45), 11:40 AM CT
Samardzija's second start wasn't as impressive as his first. His fastballs' velocity was down about 3 mph from the 97 or so in his first start, and he pitched well enough before running into trouble in the fifth. The Cardinals hit five line drives off of him, scoring 5 runs. Luckily the Cubs offense had already posted nine of their own at that point.
Nolasco's best start was his first one, in Cincy. He went 8 innings and killed a ton of grass in their infield. He labored in his second start against the Astros, needing 90 pitches to go five innings against their woeful offense.
Prediction
Cubs lose yet another series.






Great. 3 games in the House That Liberace and Steve Zissou Built.
That was very strange to see in person. At least some fan got a souvenir, but I thought that would have been the perfect time to throw the ball back on the field. I don’t want your error! (dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
The most important question is: how many games will Clevenger
winstart?WenningtonsGorillaCock wrote:
Thanks. I was looking for the per game face value of each of the pricing tiers (bronze, silver, gold, platinum, marquee). But that helps as I think I’ve figured out the prices through deduction.
Rice Cube wrote:
Thanks, RC.
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2008/10/20/637547/building-a-cubs-champion-i
Al – Master Storyteller and GM
@ WaLi:
That deal can never happen now that someone has spoken about it.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Just because it didn’t happen doesn’t mean he was wrong. It was going to happen at the time he wrote it.
@ Aisle424:
He says it was the nights and weekends package, two seats, including Opening Day and Memorial Day and cost around $4200 to $4800 (doesn’t remember exactly). 58 total games.
@ WaLi:
Was it a rumor, or did he have a source?
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2012/04/17/417-cubs-to-pick-6th-in-draft/
Muskat’s blurb re: the upcoming draft. Pretty bare bones but does tell us where the compensation picks are at…however I’m sure you guys had already figured that stuff out.
Ankiel’s throw from last night, for those that missed the previous thread:
http://mlb.mlb.com//shared/flash/video/share/ObjectEmbedFrame.swf?width=400&height=254&content_id=20672793&property=mlb
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Ridic.
Rice Cube wrote:
Thanks! Can you find out what the individual face value printed on the tickets are for the various price levels? WGC verified my assumptions for what single game customers are paying (base-level), but I don’t know where the season ticket people are saving their money. The $141 dollar difference doesn’t break out evenly across pricing tiers.
My heart hurts: http://www.sportressofblogitude.com/2012/04/12/the-strasburger-will-set-you-back-59-at-washington-nationals-games-photo/
@ Mish:
The only players, to my mind, with comparable arms were Clemente and Bo Jackson
@ Aisle424:
He might be able to tell me when he gets home, so probably not for a few hours.
Cubs probably get swept with three QS scoring 5 runs total
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I hope that is to be shared with a small Third World country.
@ Rice Cube:
It will probably be consumed by three rednecks who made a Busch Light-fueled drive from West Virginia to catch a ballgame. America!
Aisle424 wrote:
I don’t see that breakdown, but the announcement that I quoted from said that season ticket holders would save on-average $1-2 per ticket versus the face value. So, you can get a rough estimate.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I wish the runner was running on that.
@ Mish:
He chose wisely.
Bruce spits on your small sample size!
Chicago Cubs @Cubs Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
#Cubs lineup @Marlins 4/17: DeJesus RF, Barney 2B, Castro SS, Soriano LF, Stewart 3B, Clevenger C, LaHair 1B, Byrd CF, Dempster P
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
Without looking, my friend confirms that the savings are only $1-$2 per ticket.
@ Mish:
Sveum isn’t the Houston manager, sadly.
It’s like he forgot to put LaHair in there and was just like “Hey, 7th is open!”
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
GBTS wrote:
Posting this because Roy Halladay is amazing.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/roy-halladay-in-relief-of-roy-halladay/
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/bears/post/_/id/4675795/source-bears-to-host-south-carolinas-jeffery
Bubbles would be the happiest Gamecockbear ever
@ bubblesdachimp:
Jeffery has bust written all over him. USC Mike Williams redux. Bad body, won’t be able to get separation in the NFL. Do not want.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Such a lazy comparison. So lazy. He ran a sub 4.5 40.. Thatis not slow.. He can actually catch. And he did it against the best defenses in the world.
Edit: it wouldnt be for the first round so i cant see myself getting too upset with using a second rounder on him
I’d really like to see the Bears try and trade up for Floyd, but it sounds like they’re going DE with their first pick. Your boy Ingram probably won’t fall to them, though. Mercilus, Upshaw or Coples probably the best bets.
So, the Hawks’ Shaw got suspended eh. Hmm.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I really like this idea. However it would cost us a second to do this.. I would maybe hope that we can trade a second next year for a higher first this year…
To get Michael i think we would need to get up to 11.
(I think he is the best WR in the draft)
Also I think one of my boys goes to Jacksonville regardless (Gilmore or Ingram) i think ourtside chance Gilmore is available at 19 no chance ingram is
@ bubblesdachimp:
It’s not lazy. It’s entirely apt. Until the combine Jeffery was fat, and he’s only had one solid college season (and in that respect he has a much, much worse college resumé than Williams had, and he’s played one more season than Williams did). He has excellent hands and a long frame that makes him a good red zone target, but almost all the scouting reports I’ve read seem to agree he’s a shitty route-runner who used his size to get to balls, but never really got separation.
@ Rice Cube:
After Mike Smith’s flop, I hereby propose that all NHL fans STFU about diving in footy.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/17/carlos-zambrano-meets-the-cubs/
Love the snark:
@ bubblesdachimp:
Yeah, there’s no chance they do it, mainly because this roster needs a lot of help and the Bears can’t afford to lose picks. Given the other moves in the offseason, I’m really hoping the Bears go OL/DL, LB, OL/DL, LB in the first three rounds, and then start looking at DB’s in the later rounds.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’m pretty sure the NHL has a “flopping” penalty now (dying laughing) Obviously it wasn’t used in that game, but I guess goalie interference takes precedence. I definitely don’t think the hit was intentional, but Shaw should have tried harder to stay out of the goalie’s way; no good could have come from him getting that close to the goalie because >90% of the time, the goalie will get the call.
The suspension is bullshit though. The major penalty and the game misconduct was more than enough. I know some people were arguing that it should have been a minor at best, but I think if you get that close to a goaltender you’re just asking for trouble.
@ Rice Cube:
There’s a penalty in footy, too. Yellow card. Repeat offenders get one-match bans. But now that the NHL has given teams an incentive to take dives in the playoffs, I think we have not seen the last of this crap.
@ Mish:

@ Mercurial Outfielder:
He had two solid years… This year was meh but no one to throw him the ball..
He can just straight up catch and jump. he is not slow either
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Yeah, there will always be shenanigans in sports…like a hitter trying to sell a HBP or the thousands of flops in basketball. Some things never change.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I think we need another WR… I just dont want to use a first on one unless it is Floys of Blackmon
@ bubblesdachimp:
I’m not saying he’s slow. There’s a difference between being slow and not being able to get separation Jeffery’s straight-line speed is fine. But across the board the scouts say his burst is below-average, which allows him to get jammed on the line so he never gets up to speed or into his route, thus rendering him incapable of gaining separation. I don’t have any confidence in him. He’s got some nice tools, but his negatives are serious.
I think Weiters’ first home run from last night has entered a stable orbit.
@ Rice Cube:
Such bullshit that Shaw got a suspension let alone a major. If Smith was hurt, he should have left the ice. This same bullshit happened to Keith (granted he really should have got a suspension). He got 5 games though right at the end of the season and was a first time offender.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I echo that with Bo Jackson. Never saw Roberto Clemente, but I’m sure the local folks here could back that up.
Great throw by Ankiel.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Disagree. he never had a problem putting up numbers in the SEC… The NFL isnt that much harder
@ SkipVB:
I’ve never been able to find video of it online, but that throw to nail Harold Reynolds at home that Jackson threw from deep in the gap in the Kingdome is the single greatest throw I have ever seen.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Context:
I used to live in WV and once drove to Baltimore to see the Cubs in Interleague play. Night game of course, there and back in one day. I invited my friends from WV to go along and got variations of these responses:
–What’s baseball?
–Wha’d'eye wanna go to Baltimore when i c’n go see the Stillers in September?
–The Majors are the ‘eers and the Stillers, not the Orioles. (Well, OK, that guy had a point, sorta.)
–I thought the Pittsburgh had a baseball team. Did they move?
Video of the Jackson throw!: http://soxanddawgs.com/mlb/video/harold-reynolds-finally-admits-he-was-out.html
@ bubblesdachimp:
Yeah. Danny Wuerrffel agrees. Spare the SEC crap. He’s a big WR with a bad body and no burst who runs bad routes, with good hands and a good vertical. So his ceiling is Marques Colston. And his floor is 90% of the WR that get drafted because they are big and run good 40s without their pads on.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
AMEN. I’ll never forget that throw.
@ SkipVB:
I think LF was somewhere around 324 feet to straightaway LF in the old Kingdome then, so he probably threw that ball about 320 feet, on the fly, with pinpoint accuracy. Insane.
@ Rice Cube:
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
Thanks, guys. I really didn’t want to have to send a message to Alvin.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Do not ever hate on the SEC. We are titletown.
Also he dominated plenty of first round picks. He can get separation. Really didnt help he didnt have a QB this year.
Aisle424 wrote:
Brett Taylor @BleacherNation Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
RT @PWSullivan Z is surprised I still get paid without having him to write about.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
How do you upload an image here that is on your hard drive, and not just linked somewhere on the Tubez?
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
That video also demonstrates how much better the camera shots and image quality of today’s broadcasts are. Had it have been 2009 and not 1989, we’d have had the entire trajectory of the throw on camera.
@ SkipVB:
I’m guessing he was referring to those crazy Jefferson County people who commute to DC
@ bubblesdachimp:

@ bubblesdachimp:
I’m surprised that Paul Sullivan gets paid to do anything besides mop jizz in the yank booth of a truck stop porn store.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/joe-maddon-working-on-creating-cool-new-infield-po,27919/
@ SkipVB:
For sure.
@ Berselius:
Yeah, you’re probably right, but they drive big SUVs and are only now beginning to feel the cost of higher gas prices, though they’ve been complaining about them for months. The exurb commutariat doesn’t drink Busch Light.
But hey, I couldn’t pass up the chance to dig my former neighbors a bit, even if at MO’s expense.
BTW, Camden Yards can’t hold a candle, or even an old, cracked, bike-pedal reflector to PNC Park in Pittsburgh.
@ Aisle424:
Those fucking sheeple are giving Ozzie exactly what he wants. An audience.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
MO has gotten some positive faget points and some negative ones…
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I was just impressed that Alvin managed to get in on the presser. Sort of.
@ bubblesdachimp:
It could go either way.
@ Aisle424:
He’s put in a lot of work on the casting couch.
@ Aisle424:
Didnt even fucking notice
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
http://deadspin.com/5902482/hey-its-jake-peavy-partying-at-a-bar-in-wrigleyville/gallery/1
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/04/17/2753216/potential-clemens-jurors-question.html
@ SkipVB:
You can use the forum to do it or you could upload it to some other site.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Wow. That was awesome. The catcher applied the tag so fast, it was hard to tell, but the slow-mo stop was perfect.
@ josh:
That’s Aaron Boone’s dad. And now I feel old.
@ Aisle424:
You gonna write a blurb about the Cubs’ best customers?
@ Aisle424:
(dying laughing)
I didn’t even see him.
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/jets/and_for_jets_cornerback_cromartie_cNc7v2hNYnaJsrJoMHgVcI
New kids should be named 11 and 12
@ Aisle424:
I just saw him. (dying laughing)
@ josh:
Big man to admit he was out.
Hell of a throw.
My goal is for everyone to expect Alvin to be in every photo I post.
@ Mish:
Wow. That guy takes pitching to a whole other level.
Aroldis Chapman ———> transformed http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16505
Not sure if it’s been posted or not, but this is on Dave Cameron: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120416&content_id=28844170&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
@ Rice Cube:
He couldn’t really deny it when they slowed it down.
bubbles would like to thank everyone for helping pass the day today
@ josh:
And he’s been denying it for years.
http://withleather.uproxx.com/2012/04/favorite-twitter-account-of-the-day-baseballs-best-fans#more-81443
Where do you guys go for fantasy research? I just got offered a trade but I feel like I must be getting raped because it sounds too good (dying laughing)
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
(dying laughing) @ I hate Pujols #trader
Bears get Luck game 1…
According to rumors
@ Akabari:
I haven’t played in a few years, so my old haunts are probably out of date. I always like Fangraphs. What’s the trade?
I give Evan Longoria and Justin Upton and I get Drew Stubbs, Roy Halladay and David Wright
And my pitching is godawful right now
@ Akabari:
wright has a broken pinkie. he’s played through it the past few days, but i would still be leary
As long as we’re discussing fake baseball, which two guys out the following bums would you pick to have as your Utility player and lone bench hitter in a deep league using conventional stats: Adam LaRoche, Angel Pagan, Omar Infante, Ryan Roberts, Zack Cozart, Logan Morrison, Alex Rios, Chase Headley, AJ Pierzynski.
@ Akabari:
Depends on how the league is scored. you’re giving up a lot of power, SB, and OBP for a lot of outs and a lot of pitching points. Personally, I wouldn’t do it.
@ Suburban kid:
Morrison
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Yeah I got him but my only concern with him is playing time.
@ Suburban kid:
Stanton’s got a balky leg, and at the very least will need regular time off for a while, plus Ozzie likes to rotate OF, so he’ll get his AB.
Bears can easily go 16-0
game thread: http://www.obstructedview.net/games/cubs-and-marlins-already-in-progress.html