The red hot Chicago Cubs travel to Atlanta fresh off sweeping the super-talented Houston Astros. The Braves lost 2 of 3 to the Nationals over the weekend.
Teams at a glance
| Stat | Cubs | Braves |
| wOBA | .297 | .317 |
| wRC+ | 80 (16) | 98 (5) |
| UZR | 2.5 (6) | 35.7 (1) |
| BsR | 1.2 (7) | 6.0 (2) |
| SP ERA | 4.32 (15) | 4.22 (12) |
| SP FIP | 4.05 (11) | 4.35 (14) |
| RP ERA | 4.48 (11) | 3.73 (8) |
| RP FIP | 4.66 (16) | 3.75 (7) |
After the dominating pitching the Braves had in the 90s I still can't get used to them having a starting rotation that isn't all that good. They're pretty bad as starters, about league average in relief, but they do make up for it with an excellent defense and one of the best baserunning teams in the NL. The Cubs have improved considerably on the bases on their defensive metrics indicate they've also improved there too. The starters have been horrible and the relievers just as bad. The offense too. Other than that they're kicking ass.
Injuries
Lendy Castillo is on the Rule 5 Draft DL. There's probably nothing wrong with him, but he's not good enough to pitch at the big league level so they put him on the DL. I can't help but think that this is detrimental to a player's future. I think MLB needs to do something about rule 5 picks so that this doesn't happen in the future. Perhaps there is something wrong with Castillo, but this seems to happen to all rule 5 picks who suck and most of them do. The player's should have negotiated this into the CBA because this seems rather deplorable to me. Not the Cubs. They're just doing what every team does. I'm talking about what these teams do. It's a system that's broken and could be easily fixed.
Marcos Mateo and Ian Stewart are out for the rest of the season. Blake Parker probably is, as well. Ryan Dempster is out with a lat injury and is expected back after the all-star break. A couple bad starts from him and he may be untradeable prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. Who would have guessed that after his incredible start? It happens. Especially to the Cubs.
Brandon Beachy, Peter Moylan and Arodys Vizcaino are out for the season. Robert Fish was placed on the 15 day DL back on April 2nd, retroactive to March 26th, and has yet to appear in a game this season.
Who's hot and who's not?
Everybody on the Cubs is hot. Nobody on the Braves is.
Monday, 6:10: Jeff Samardzija (5.05 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 3.64 xFIP) vs. Tommy Hanson (3.59 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 4.41 xFIP)
Samardzija had a very rough June. To give you an idea just how rough it was, batters slugged .570 against him. Small samples don't tell us a whole lot, but that's getting hit hard. It's really hard to figure out what to make of Samardzija. One one hand he's had 5 out of his 15 starts in which he's allowed 5 or more runs. If this was Carlos Zambrano the fans would be going ape shit crazy wondering why he can't keep the Cubs in a ballgame even though Z's rate of 5 or more was nowhere near 33%. On the other hand he's been damn good in his other starts. To this point anyway, you seem to get a really start from Samardzija or the offense has little to no chance to even make it close. His peripherals are still solid though that walk rate has been inching up for awhile now. Did he show improved control over 70 to 80 innings or has he really improved his control? If he has improved it there's no reason he can't be a solid back of the rotation starter. If he hasn't, it's not going to work out.
Hanson's ERA is in line with what he's done the last couple years, but his FIP is way higher. He's struckout fewer batters this year, walked more, allowed a higher BABIP and allowed more home runs per fly ball. He's stranded 82.2% of the runners keeping his ERA low, but he really hasn't pitched like a 3.5 ERA pitcher has. At least not yet.
Tuesday, 6:10: Chris Volstad (7.46 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 4.65 xFIP) vs. Jair Jurrjens (6.07 ERA, 5.95 FIP, 6.01 xFIP)
Volstad is back to make his first start since being demoted to Iowa where he wasn't really that impressive. He posted an ERA of 4.44 though his FIP was about 3.6. ZiPS projects him to be a 4.57 FIP pitcher going forward.
After getting rocked to start the season Jurrjens spent the next two months on the DL. In two starts since returning he's 13.1 innings, allowed 9 hits and 3 runs, struckout 4 and walked 4. Neither pitcher on Tuesday strikes many out, but neither walk a lot of guys either.
Wednesday, 6:10: Paul Maholm (4.84 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 4.42 xFIP) vs. Randall Delgado (4.52 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.14 xFIP)
I had so much fun filling in for Berselius that I'm going to cut this preview short.
Did the Braves announcer just say that Tony Campana was the key batter this series for the Braves?
@ mb21:
Can’t hear their feed so I assume that happened
Sooooo…are we assuming Thursday’s game won’t happen? (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
Oh, it’s a 4-game series? I was having way too much fun writing this preview. (dying laughing)
@ mb21:
Yeah, I think Garza’s going on Thursday against Minor.
Cubbies are hot! Rizzo the shit out of them Braves!
Sorry, got caught up in the moment.
I just assumed 3 game series because there aren’t many that are longer than that these days.
Nice piece of hitting by Rizzo there. Ball was probably a little high, but nice to see him not try to hit the ball 6 million feet.
@ mb21:
I think it’s funnier if you just leave the post as is (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
I am. Too lazy at this point. And it’s funny.
He hasn’t deserved any special treatment but I’m still annoyed that Soto is basically being platooned.
What the hell was Castro thinking?
Castro —> derp
WTF was that?
(dying laughing) @ Chip: “Samardzija’s no hit bid ends because of a careless play.”
He was only 22 away!
Looks like Rizzo wasn’t on the bag?
@ GBTS:
Wouldn’t mind a replay if someone has one.
Braves feed showed a replay that because of the shift, Rizzo wasn’t anywhere close to first when the ball was hit. Couldn’t see how long it took him to get there though.
@ GBTS:
(dying laughing)
F7 wasn’t very happy with Castro for obvious reasons.
Castro has to at least lead Rizzo to the bag.
@ mb21:
You remember that one time, in 2007, when, Soriano hit like, a ton of home runs that one series in Atlanta?
That was awesome.
Castro and Valbuena with a nice double play to save F7′s bacon.
Rizzogasm.
Rizzo!
Nice inning by F7.
It seems like there’s a lot of noise in his swing, but he really does uncoil pretty gracefully. I like it.
Rizzo makes me happy. Seems to know hot to hit
Baez got hit again… He seems to get hit a lot. We might need to start throwing at people to protect him
K.C Johnson ‏@KCJHoop
RT @jalenrose: Happy for Asik parlaying 2 starts, 3pts/5 rebs into $25m deal. Being 7ft always pays especially if you can walk/chew gum
@ bubblesdachimp:
Or he could learn to get out of the fucking way, like an adult human.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
He’s channeling his inner Biggio.
This Atlanta SS is pretty good…
3 at bats for Rizzo three hard hit balls. I like it
Nice to see F7 recover some transformation.
I’m OK with Baez getting HBP more often than normal. OBP!
These guys just aren’t going to stop taking shots at Castro. I forgot how much of talentless hack Chip is.
@ bubblesdachimp:
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
They still harping on that defensive snafu?
@ uncle dave:
Wasting cap space a guy for whom the only thing slower than his feet are his wits is not a smart piece of sports management.
Well Rizzo just needs to hit another home run now
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I hope we let him walk to be honest.
Aggressive baserunning (TM)
This may count as a SOTBLAG.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
@ bubblesdachimp:
Yup. The Rockets are going to hate the third year of that deal, I think. The guy’s no Marcin Gortat, after all.
@ uncle dave:
It was just such bullshit that they were able to structure it like that
(dying laughing) @ Atlanta
@ uncle dave:
Yeah, they will.
Valbuena is quite a ballstriker.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
FWIW, it’s not just the Braves announcers. It’s every single team’s announcers. I haven’t tuned into a game with the other team’s announcers all season without hearing them talk about Castro like that. He has gained that type of reputation and it’s going to stick with him until he shows it doesn’t belong. From what I heard in this game it’s just the same as what you hear listening to the Astros, Dbacks, Reds, Pirates and Mets (Ron Darling went off on Castro big time).
@ bubblesdachimp:
Don’t hate the player, hate the game. Rest assured that they’ll eventually have to deal with the consequences of the deal, though I guess if he pans out and becomes an average NBA center $14 mil is about the going rate.
Freddy Freeman couldn’t have looked like he gave less of a fuck there, but no Castro-like hairdryer treatment from Chip for Freddy.
Fuckin’ Campana, man. That creep can’t roll.
@ mb21:
It doesn’t belong. Castro doesn’t have shit to prove. This is because of one game and one whackjob asshole on ESPN who gave every braindead C- without no imagination and microphone a talking point.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I disagree. There’s a lot of times he’s not paying attention out there, MO. The guy had his back to the infield one time when the pitch was being delivered. Besides, when it’s being said this frequently by former players my tendency is to believe they know what they’re talking about.
Now we get the “insurmountable obstacles of the small white man” narrative from Chip about Campana.
The Cubs have apparently cornered the market on players who have beaten cancer with Rizzo and Campana.
@ uncle dave:
You are correct. I just cant see him ever doing anything offensively. He just cant catch the ball.. Kinda important..
Do people like Valbuena? Vitters up to .299 with another hit
Most importantly, it’s obvious that Castro has gained this reputation so when he does make a boneheaded decision to stand with the ball it’s going to be used as an example of why he has that reputation. And this stuff does seem to happen on a regular basis with him. It’s once a series the other team’s announcers are highlighting it.
None of this takes away from what a good player he’s been so far and even the ones most critical have said that, but as Dusty would say, it is what it is.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I didn’t know Campana beat cancer.
@ mb21:
Most baseball announcers are braindead parrots. They hear one guy say one thing, and then it becomes a mantra. Then the fans get a hold of it, and suddenly a guy has a “reputation.”
@ mb21:
I think he had non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.
You could say he outran it
Did they show that Castro/Rizzo play again? I’d like to know how far Rizzo was that Castro had to hold onto the ball for so long.
Also, yay for F7.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Unfortunately that does seem to be true. Castro has overall improved, but any mistake gets the parrot talk going because that’s the narrative they’ve seen others use. That’s standard journalism in general these days. If another journalist says it, that’s your source.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
That would be true if these guys weren’t specifically pointing to an example that happens during the game. That Len and Bob don’t do so isn’t surprising. They would if it was Soriano of course, but they’re not going to regularly highlight this stuff with Castro. Other team’s announcers have no issue with it and don’t hold any punches. It happens once a series. The Braves announcers also pointed out Castro did something last year in Atlanta and I can’t seem to remember what it was, but i do remember the announcers going off on him at that time too (at the time I thought it was over the top). This wasn’t unprovoked. Castro did something stupid. He has that reputation. He’s done it before and he’s done it in Atlanta.
I’ll defend Castro if I have to, but I’m not going to go near this. This stuff is highlighted all the time. It’s not a once a month thing. It happens regularly.
13 days till Breaking BAD!!!!!!!!
If someone wants to argue these things make Castro a bad player I’ll point out how idiotic that is. In the scheme of things these are relatively meaningless, but they do happen.
@ bubblesdachimp:
Can’t wait.
@ mb21:
I cant wait to see Walt vs Jesse vs Mike vs Hank gonna be fucking awesome
Sounds like Barney’s cleaning house.
@ mb21:
I just don’t buy it. It’s like saying that Politician X is a socialist because every news commentator says he is a socialist.
I have turned my opinion on Barney. He might be so good defensively that i just dont give a shit if he plays everyday as long as he bats 7th or 8th
Of course Castro is a socialist. Duh.
@ josh:
66 game errorless streak.
@ Aisle424:
Rabble! Rabble rabble!!
@ Aisle424:
Both replays are up on Barney, both amazing plays.
Rizzo is Pena-esque at digging balls out of the dirt.
It’s a lot of fun listening to these two idiots try and predict the pitch based on where the Cubs infielders are positioned.
Well I’ll just be damned. Good to see Samardzija with a good outing.
Cubs win!
Go Padres!
@ josh:
Yeah, nice to see him pick it up.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
It’s nothing like that and I have no idea what you don’t buy, MO. I’m telling you that numerous announcers have said this about Castro. I have heard it with my own ears. I have seen them highlighting plays in which Castro is doing one thing or another that he shouldn’t be doing.
yes, some announcers are pretty bad, but not all of them. And even if they are all braindead it still doesn’t explain it because they are pointing out examples of it during games. Showing replays of it and discussing what he should have been doing and how this kind of thing happens a lot. If all they did was say it and there was no example whatsoever, I might agree with you, but that’s not what’s happening here.
Castro is young and hopefully he’ll outgrow this. It’s not like he’s the first super young player to have concentration problems. It’s fairly common and right now it’s a valid complaint. Especially after an example of it.
None of this is being used to argue Castro isn’t a good player. I’ve never once heard an announcer use this as evidence he’s not any good. Earlier in the game Chip pointed out how he had more hits in baseball than any player since his debut. Obviously Chip thinks he’s a very good player and this doesn’t change that.
I don’t have a problem with it. Len and Bob point out what dumbass things other players are doing on other teams. I don’t have a problem with that. I don’t have a problem with other announcers giving an honest assessment of a Cubs player either. I take what they say a lot more seriously than I do Len and Bob whose job it is to sell the team and sell Castro as a future superstar.
@ bubblesdachimp:
I think Walt vs Mike comes to a conclusion early. I don’t think they can restart the business without Mike. The question is what will Jesse learn about Walt and when? What and when will Hank learn it? Gonna be fun.
@ mb21:
Even on the play today, there was no mention of Rizzo being out of position. They’re keying on Castro, and they’re keying on him because they’ve got a talking point. Nothing more. It’s so many parrots parroting, and nothing more.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
GBTS needs to gifsoup it off his DVR so we can have a point of reference.
The announcers aren’t just hearing things from other announcers by the way. I’d guess much of what they hear is from the coaching staff of the team they cover. What are the Pirates and Braves announcers going to talk about at a Pirates/Braves game? Starlin Castro? It’s much more believable that this info is coming from managers and coaches of opposing teams than it is being passed on from one announcer to another.
Not to mention, Sveum saying “this is the last straw” kind of says it all in my opinion. It ain’t the last straw if it happens once. Or twice. That’s two manager who have basically said the same thing about Castro.
Padilla’s blurb:
Colvin is slugging .595 now. I now it’s Colorado and he’s not going to finish like this, but I think it’s fair to say the Rox got the better of the Cubs there.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
So everyone else is wrong? Sveum is? Quade is? All the announcers? I haven’t seen what I’ve said I’ve seen either? That’s awfully arrogant.
I don’t buy for two reasons:
(1) He doesn’t do this any more than any other player. His lapses get magnified and blown up because of what Valentine did. No one talked about this before that.
(2) When other players do the same thing (like Rizzo and Freeman today) nothing gets said.
This leads me to believe that Castro has a totally undeserved rep because of Valentine’s fat, festering gob. I am unshakeable in this opinion.
I’m not saying these annoucner think Castro is a bad player; I’m saying they are picking nits where none need be picked because Castro got blown up for one mistake on national TV. Even the walking off with two outs this year thing. AJ did the same thing agasint the Cubs. Not a word. AJ also perpetually ignores baserunners. No one says anything, because he doesn’t have this telephone game rep like Castro. It’s so much sound and fury, signifying nothing.
@ Rice Cube:
That makes sense. I was wondering what the hell Starlin was waiting for after he got that ball. That’s the problem with watching a game on TV.
@ mb21:
Then I’m arrogant, I guess. But I don’t buy it.
@ Rice Cube:
Good to see Sveum say that. If Rizzo is out of position they both made a mistake, but Castro holding the ball is at least explainable.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Not so. He was benched his rookie year because of a mental lapse.
@ Rice Cube:
Bingo.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I guess I’m fucking wrong then and Castro is the lackadaiscial bum they all say he is. Deuces, folks.
@ mb21:
On a shift that extreme, shouldn’t Samardzija also run to cover first base? I know the catcher has to cover overthrows to first so I’m not sure if the pitcher then covers home or stays put just in case something incredible stupid happens.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Yes they did. Quade called him out in 2010, MO. Valentine’s nonsense was last year.
You may be right it doesn’t happen any more than any other player, but that doesn’t mean it’s excusable. I refuse to believe the coaches and managers give two shits what the announcers say. They don’t. You know it. I know it so I don’t even know why it’s suggested. Both Quade and Sveum have called Castro out for making multiple mental mistakes.
Yeah, no, on that play today Rizzo was super far away, Which is why there was hesitation. You could see it on the behind-home replay if you had on Atlanta’s feed. *shrug*
Also, Shark, one small step for him, one giant leap for FIP!
@ Rice Cube:
Pitcher is taught to cover 1st on balls hit to right side. Doubt they’re taught to do so otherwise.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
He was warned after the first one publicly and then benched. Both of which pissed me off since Castro was a rookie.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I note that despite those numbers he’s still only a part-time player. But I do agree that the Rockies got the better offensive player, though the Cubs’ trade was predicated on getting rid of an OF they didn’t really need and trying to get a better defensive 3B. Not even Theo is going to bat 1.000 but I’m not that upset about losing Colvin.
@ mb21:
I figured an exception would be made for an extreme shift, but I see what you are saying.
@ Rice Cube:
I’m not mourning his loss either (and his hitting profile is perfect for Colorado). But the Cubs are unlikely to get much if any value from Stewart. Maybe by some miracle the surgery fixes him up and he’s decent last year, but this trade is looking like one for the loss column.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I wouldn’t say that, MO. I think some of them go over the top with what they say, but I’m not going to defend Castro because he has that reputation for good reason. But as long as people aren’t using that as evidence why he sucks, I don’t really care. I thought it was bullshit when Quade called him out twice in 2010. Seemed like a better idea to pull him aside, but Quade may have already done that too. Castro is probably a little difficult for the coaches. He’s so damn good at such a young age. Everything always came so easy to him that he’s probably not the best listener. I’d be surprised if he was, but that’s often typical for players like Castro. I remember Andruw Jones getting a lot of shit early in his career in Atlanta. Everything came easy to him and he made things look so easy. I don’t think he was an especially easy person to coach because of that.
@ Rice Cube:
I don’t know how that works. My guess is that Rizzo was shifted too far out of position and that Castro shouldn’t have waited until Rizzo was at the bag, which is why Sveum talked to both of them. Consider it a learning moment.
Didn’t Bobby Cox yank Andrew Jones in the middle of an inning in his rookie year after a mental lapse?
Andruw
What’s getting lost in all this Castro bickering is the bigger problem in all this: Quade managed for two seasons? Jesus H. Christ, I’d forgotten that.
Errors have cost Big Z a victory tonight.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Eh, unless you can show that they should have known about the injury, that’s a fallacy to assess the trade after the fact. You make the best decision you can given the information at the time.
@ josh:
I think Stewart’s wrist issues were known before the trade but they definitely didn’t know it would flare up so bad again.
@ mb21:
Yeah, that’s definitely a teaching moment. I feel like with Samardzija’s speed (and a guy like, say, Travis Wood isn’t slow either) they might be able to make it to the bag on a righty pull-shift faster than the 1B could. I don’t really know. But I do agree with your post about 50 posts ago that Castro should’ve led Rizzo to the bag although I’m not sure how difficult that throw would be, maybe he just throws right to the bag and Rizzo meets it there? *shrug*
@ Rice Cube:
He didn’t help himself with his 6.72 FIP.
@ josh:
It’s not a fallacy to evaluate a trade after the fact, as long as you’re evaluating the result of the trade rather than the wisdom of it (at the time it was made).
Big Z has been crazy wild all year. Rumors of a rebirth are greatly exaggerated.
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22781233&c_id=mlb
@ Rice Cube:
Sorry, that was a Barney web gem. Here’s another one:
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22781283&c_id=mlb
You know what’s odd? This will be the second straight All-Star Game without Albert Pujols.
(Albert’s actually having a decent season, all told. Arguably better than ASG starter Prince Fielder.)
After the inning, manager Dale Sveum went directly over to Castro to have a word with him. It was then that Rizzo stepped in.
“Rizzo came to his rescue right away,” Sveum said. “Rizzo told him to give him time to get to the bag. He got caught probably trying to get too much ground and told somebody to take their time when they got a ball deep in the hole. It was one of those things that I apologized to Castro after.”
On the play, Rizzo was shifted toward second base and was late getting to the bag.
“It was my fault in my opinion,” Rizzo said. “I told him before that to give me a little time. That’s just me not knowing Uggla’s speed. I thought I had time to get there.”
Just thought it was worth noting.
I actually think there’s some validity to MO’s point. I’ve heard Pat Hughes mention several times that he will ask broadcasters before games about certain players (Castro, Zambrano, etc.) and they have answers. That means either they are discussing certain players (I know, hard to believe the Cubs have anyone worth discussing, but Castro is one a lot of people look at) or they are doing research, and part of that research has to be looking at clips. The Bobby Valentine clip from when Castro turned his back to the infield was featured on MLB.com and ESPN and probably other outlets. It could be one people are hitting on. If that’s the first thing you see or the most notable thing you see, you might very well believe that Castro is a guy who makes boneheaded mistakes. Not saying you’re intentionally doing it, but as a broadcaster you’re expected to talk and analyze nonstop during the broadcast. A lot dead air can get you fired.
So, combine that with another phenomenon I’ve noticed, that Castro doesn’t very often make the highlight reels. Last year Asdrubal Cabrera made the highlight reels every other day. If you look at his numbers at short on Fangraphs, they’re mediocre to bad. Castro came up, had a lot of errors, and got known as a bat-only shortstop. Bobby Valentine’s National TV rant cemented that whether at the time or in terms of research. Castro is much improved defensively. Castro has never been as bad as Asdrubal Cabrera, defensively.
That’s the point, is that research on that kind of thing ends up being cherry picking, whether intentionally or not. The fact that you don’t see him every day means you take shortcuts and look for the plays that got the most attention and try to seek an overall pattern. That means those guys are cherry picking, at best. At worst they aren’t even doing full research and just going with the general attitude of their peers.
@ Doogolas:
That cements the point to me. The announcer had the benefit of seeing the full play, if he’s looking. If he’s looking for Castro to fuck up, maybe he doesn’t notice Rizzo and perceives Castro as fucking up. The eyes are all on Castro on defense. I think he’s done a shit ton better and still has a negative rep.
Samardzija’s start:
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22784785&c_id=mlb&topic_id=vtp_star_of_the_game
In fact, it may well be that Castro wasn’t on a lot of broadcaster’s radars until Bobby V made a big shitting deal about a bonehead play that got national airtime.
I will say this though: 1) Bob Brenly says some sarcastic-ass things about other players, and it doesn’t bother me (in fact, I laugh). 2) I always felt Chip Carray had a bit of a chip on his shoulder against the Cubs.
josh wrote:
Unless you’re Hawk Harrelson during a bad game for the South Siders
@ bubblesdachimp
I like Valbuena, but as far as I can tell I’m alone on that front.
josh wrote:
Darwin Barney cleans my house
@ shawndgoldman:
I like what we’ve seen of him since he joined the Cubs, but I don’t expect too much from Valbuena. When he’s hit the ball it goes far, but this is also a guy who put up a .193/.273/.258 line in over 300 PAs with the Indegenous Peoples two years ago.
Nice to see Rizzo HR, and great to see F7 return from his decepticon ways. The Braves offense is no joke
New comic: http://www.obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/four-in-a-row.html
@ Rice Cube:
Was every single one of those K’s on the splitter? That thing looked nasty, but I didn’t see the game. Hopefully his other pitches were good too.