The Cubs won't get a whack at Dickey this series, but they'll still face plenty of good pitching against the suddenly solid Mets. Despite the astounding success of Dickey and Johan Santana's rebound, the Mets have only given up 13 fewer runs than the Cubs. Their offense has been surprisingly good (two runs shy of the best in the division) but overall they only have a run differential of +3. With Reyes and Beltran gone I probably couldn't name more than two or three of the Mets starting position players, so they must be finding good value somewhere.
Team Overviews
NL Ranks in parens
| Mets | Cubs | |
| wOBA | .314 (8th) | .297 (14th) |
| BSR | 2.5 (5th) | 3.1 (3rd) |
| UZR | -27.5 (16th) | 3.7 (8th) |
| DRS | -22 (12th) | +12 (4th) |
| SP FIP | 3.72 (6th) | 4.07 (11th) |
| RP FIP | 4.08 (13th) | 4.66 (16th) |
The Mets are getting decent offense out of their players, but the defensive metrics agree that RF Lucas Duda (-12.6 UZR, -11 DRS) and 2B Daniel Murphy (-8.2 UZR, -11 DRS) are giving much of it right back. ZiPS agrees big time on the awful defending from Duda, while everyone else rates as average to bad. Sometime CF Andres Torres and SS Ruben Tejada are the only members on the whole team projected to be above average.
Pitching Matchups
Monday: Johan Santana, LHP (3.00, 3.29, 3.73, 3.44) vs Travis Wood, LHP (4.14, 5.45, 4.50, 4.29), 7:05 PM CT
It's hard to believe that Santana was only gone for one season. Somehow I had equated his injury woes with Chien-Ming Wang, who took forever to make his way back to the bigs after multiple surgeries and setbacks. It is safe to say that Santana is Back, and then some. His strikeout rates dipped after coming to the Mets from the Twins, which is especially puzzling given the league change. This year, however, he's back to the batter an inning rate from his Minneapolis years. He's walking a bit more, but his no-hitter on June 1 following a complete game shutout of the Padres the start before have erased any doubts that he has any rust to break off. Those starts are even more impressive given how awful the Mets defense is. I can't think of another pitcher that has bounced back as well from a season ending injury as Santana, and that includes another notable TJSer from this year. After looking at Strasburg's stats (2.26 FIP) maybe I'm getting a bit ahead of myself here (laughing). It was nice of the Cubs to make sure that Johan Santana wasn't his Welcome To The Big Leagues present (laughing)
Wood's FIP numbers are skewed by the 4 HR game a month or so ago on a day when the wind was howling out of Wrigley. But even if you discount those he's merely pitching okay. My lying eyes tell me that he's been victim to the Sean Marshall syndrome, namely, looking great the first two times through the order then losing his handle around the fifth inning. It looks like I'm wrong though, as his walk rate is actually lower in innings 4-6. He's only pitched 1.2 innings past the sixth so he hasn't gone very deep in games.
Tuesday: Dillon Gee, RHP (4.27, 3.94, 3.34, 4.55) vs Randy Wells, RHP (4.91, 5.27, 6.23, 4.63), 7:05 PM CT
Gee and Mets teammate Lucas Duda are names that I always gloss over because for whatever reason I think their names sound like autogenerated names from a video game. He's either had lousy strand rate luck or is not very good out of the stretch. He was solidly replacement level his in both rookie season and the minors, and regression should be creeping his numbers back to the 4.50-ish pitcher that he is.
Wells stunk up the joint yet again in his last start, walking four in 3.2 innings. Sveum made noises like he was going to lose his rotation spot, then remembered that the alternatives were Rodrigo Lopez, Casey Coleman, Chris Volstad, and Chris Rusin. So Wells is pitching tomorrow.
Wednesday: Jon Niese, LHP (3.75, 4.33, 3.40, 3.97) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (4.34, 3.28, 3.37, 3.90), 1:20 PM CT
Samardzija's FIP looks pretty good, but if you may have heard that Samardzija has had problems leaving his four seam fastball up in the zone. It would be great if he would stop doing that, just like how it would be great if Castro and Vitters took some more walks and Brett Jackson stopped striking out so much. The rest of his stuff looked pretty good in his last start, though someone (Bob?) pointed out that he was having trouble the third time through the order. Of course, so do most other pitchers. But I'm too lazy to find out if that's especially true.
I didn't realize that Niese was still pitching for the Mets. I keep confusing him with John Maine in my head. He's a quietly solid midrotation guy. He posted a 3.36 FIP last season that was masked by a 4.40 ERA, mostly due to BABIP and bad strand rate luck. He's had some problems with the long ball this year but has otherwise continued to post solid numbers.
Graham Chapman died?
This preview was so good that berselius cut it short.
Unless of course it’s part of a cunning plan.
@ Rice Cube:
More like – I had to go throw together some dinner (dying laughing)
@ Berselius:
Dinner is important!
Cubs won’t be no-hit tonight.
Michael Roth is going to be a good loogy
Baez ———-> Left Peoria game with a wrist or hand injury
@ Berselius:
Patted his back too hard?
@ GBTS:
@ Berselius:
Sounds like he might have jammed a finger.
Mather just switched to Sosa’s number.
MB should change his name to jm21
Pat and Keith recently enjoyed that Reed Johnson catch.
Joe Mather just channeled Sosa.
Mathered
Looks like the Royals are beating up the Rays tonight.
Bautista now has sole possession of the ML home run lead.
The way the Cubs give the 21 jersey to every sadassed swinging dick that darkens the door of Wrigley is fucking pathetic. Fuck you, Cubs.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
MO, you might enjoy the post on our Facebook wall where I say essentially the same thing but with slightly more G-rated language (dying laughing)
henderson alvarez out with an elbow now for the jays. joins drabek, hutchinson, morrow, santos, litsch, and mcgowan as pitchers on the dl for the jays (though the last two seem like they have been out for years).
@ GW:
That’s some shitty luck
Once again, Soto watches strike 3 go by with less than 2 outs and runners in scoring position. His “patient” approach sometimes makes me yearn for Starlin or Sori.
@ ACT:
That pitch was kinda evil.
Travis Wood is nails tonight
(dying laughing), Mets defense
(dying laughing)
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@ Berselius:
Yes.
Travis Wood has been solid
uggghhhhh tomorrow might have a dillema if Gamecocks win. DMB or national title game… OR DMB and watchespn… Fuckkkkkkkk
Dammit, scorer, give Castro his hit.
Does anyone else think the fangraphs writing has gotten a bit myopic lately? They seem to be so focused on reporting the season that they aren’t properly discounting it. I cannot believe the relative positivity coming out of there about the Youkilis deal.
@ bubblesdachimp:
#bubblesproblems
(From the Red Sox perspective, that is.)
@ shawndgoldman:
I stopped reading fangraphs over a year ago. Too many small sample size conclusions in too many articles.
(dying laughing) @ Mets D
UGHHHHHHHHHHHHH God damn it
@ Berselius:
OK, so I’m not incorrectly judging them on a small sample size.
If you guys are listening to the radio, John Williams just mentioned a story where a same-sex couple in Moline was turned away from a reception hall by the owner. Anyway, that was a friend of mine and her fiancé. She was actually a camper of mine back in my loving Jesus camp counselor days. That’s cool that her story is making the big time on WGN radio.
Heath Bell doing 2012 Heath Bell things. Just blew a four run lead in the ninth.
@ shawndgoldman:
To be fair, they did post the blog equivalent of a 3.95 SIERA in May
@ josh:
I am sorry your friend had to deal with that. People suck.
Anyone else see Bautista’s home run at Fenway? It almost killed a family on top of the Monster.
@ Berselius:
I’d gloat, but then I remember the Cubs have Marmol for another year.
Cubs hitters are spending a lot of time running to 3b today
@ GBTS:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22579857&c_id=mlb
@ ACT:
Eh. It wouldn’t have been a HR on Jupiter
Fuck the heck? Just saw that the Rays starter threw a 8 R complete game.
Great game by Travis.
What the hell kind of game was that? Eh, we’ll take it. The Cubs win even without the craziness.
@ Berselius:
Only 8 innings, though.
@ Berselius:
He won’t be backtalking Joe Maddon again!
@ Berselius:
I’d like to see your calculations on that.
Adam Dunn ———> Golden Sombrero. Again.
That’s Dunn’s third such sombrero this year, and the 11th time he’s struck out at least 3 times.
Arizona has a pretty good lead but South Carolina isn’t going away just yet…
@ Rice Cube:
It was kind of funny to hear them tripping over themselves backtracking when the local news called.
Bubbles a sad chimp
@ Berselius:
doubleheader yesterday
moyer—> toronto (allegedly)
@ GW:
That game in Boston is still going…did it rain or something?
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22581083&c_id=mlb
Windy.
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2012/06/26/625-numbers-game/
*grumble grumble grumble*
@ shawndgoldman:
No. And getting back to your Valbuena question earlier, I don’t believe in AAAA either. However I do believe that players reach a peak at which point they are no longer able to play against superior talent. Sometimes this happens in A ball. Sometimes it’s AA and sometimes it’s AAA. for me it was what we called the Babe Ruth league (13-15 age). I was damn good at that age but below average in high school. It happens to professionals too. For some draft picks , even top ones, they prove to have peaked at that level and never do shit in the low minors.
@ Berselius:
And he actually was pretty good in my opinion. Not many strikeouts but pretty sure he didn’t walk anyone. A couple deep liners in the 1st and BABIPd to death in the 3rd. Shut them down after that until Hosmer’s blast. Hochevar was pretty good too. I got to see the best of two worlds tonight. Good pitching and a team that scored a lot of runs.
It was funny though. In the 6th I told this Royals fan sitting next to me that I was rooting for the complete game for him. Never seen one in which the pitcher gave up so many runs. Royals helped him out by swinging early and often and in that big 3rd two of the outs were on the bases. Good throws by the Rays though.
mb, I didn’t realize you’ve been writing a sex advice column. Pretty steamy stuff
http://magazine.foxnews.com/love/10-pranks-will-spice-your-relationship
(the comments are hilarious)
@ Berselius:
But it was 5.84 after May 17th.
Saw the cubs won. First of about 85 in a row.
@ jm21:
it’s gonna happen
@ jm21:
I approve of the name change (dying laughing)
@ Berselius:
The first day of the rest of the 2012 Cubs championship season began today. Special day.
@ Berselius:
It’s too bad Marlon Byrd was never given Sosa’s number. I would have changed my screen name too.
@ Berselius:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
BTW I sat 9 rows up, directly behind home plate for $6 more than 424 paid for some bleacher tickets.
But I guess 424 gets to watch a team 104 years into their rebuilding plan while the team I saw is only 27 years into their plan.
@ jm21:
Trust The Process, jm
Hey did you guys miss me? Been a few days since I posted, but I got the electrical work done under the house.
I recently enjoyed the Rizzo post. The Hope Monster did too. If Rizzo fails, the Hope Monster is going to be more obese than Wisconsin.
Berselius wrote:
They say it’s nice this time of year on Jupiter. Except for the meteors…
@ GBTS:
He died in like 1989. Subnote: Best memorial speech ever.
@ mb21:
But the disparity is pretty huge. Even if Valbuena isn’t going to mash pitches the way he’s consistently done at AAA, shouldn’t he at least provide “average production” at MLB?
Along those lines, is there anywhere that lists MLB equivalents these days? I can’t seem to find them anywhere. Have they just gone out of fashion?
I remember getting curious about Rizzo’s AAA numbers, finding a calculator, and getting MLBeq’s in the range of a .338 OBP and .560 SLG. The OBP is worrisome, given a few reasons to expect some regression.
@ WaLi:
… and the constant storms. And the radiation. But yeah, other than that it’s pretty nice.
I have a question: What makes the PCL a hitter’s league? I wouldn’t think it would be the quality of pitchers since it is a AAA league so you would expect the teams represented to have their best minor league arms there. So it must be the ballparks. Are they rediculously small? I guess this would lead to inflated SLG but AVG/OBP should be about the same as any other ballpark.
Sorry, this should have been an AskOV.
@ WaLi:
I think the altitude of the ballparks also plays a role. Lots of parks up high.
Is it necessarily true that the best arms are at AAA? I may just be flat wrong, but I feel like I tend to see most of the premiere arms in AA, and when they are AAA, it’s often for a half/short season awaiting a callup or waiting out service time. IDK tho.
It’s actually not all of the PCL that is a monster hitters league. It’s the fact they have parks in Albequereque, Vegas and there’s another as well, but I forget the name of it. Iowa is actually pretty neutral, so are its division mates. But half the parks are so are such monstrous hitters parks that any hitting numbers are pretty much worthless there.
@ shawndgoldman:
From ML Splits MLE calc, and using Rizzo’s AAA totals, I get .286/.338/.541. I’d take that from Rizzo and be damn happy about it.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Me too! My worry is more than there are reasons to expect some serious downwards regression from those numbers. There’s some room to spare on the SLG numbers, but not so much with OBP.
That brings up an interesting question: what are we expecting from Rizzo? Did this place do a community projection for him at the start of the year? I think I’d put him at .275/.330/.510. (And yes, I’d be ecstatic with that.)
@ shawndgoldman:
True, and I’m not very enthused about his BB% dropping this year, either.
@ shawndgoldman:
That projection probably places too much emphasis on this year. Let’s say .275/.335/.480. And I’d still be ecstatic.
Happy Anthony Rizzo day! In honor of this glorious day, each comment will have a word that starts with the correct consonant but ends in -izzo. Hopefully the Cubs will win in his debizzo!
shawndgoldman wrote:
It’s reasonable to think that may be the case, but unreasonable to expect it if that makes any sense. When we talk about aging curves or the difference between leagues we’re talking about players who have played MLB or advanced leagues. The peak age for all professional players is much much lower than 26-28. It’s that age for MLB players, but I suspect it’s close to 20 in the minor leagues.
The same is true for difference in leagues. Those who advance and play well long enough will show the average difference in talent, but many others will simply be weeded out along the way. What we’ve seen with Valbuena or any other Quad-A type player happens all the time in the minor leagues. It’s just we don’t pay much attention to it. It happened to Jay Jackson when he got to AAA. It happened to Trey McNutt when he reached AA. It happens to players when they reach rookie ball, short-season A, low A, high A and so on. McNutt and Jackson were damn good before they reached the level they simply can’t get passed. We talk about instances like that in the sense that the prospect never reached his ceiling, but they did. It just so happened that McNutt’s ceiling was being very good in High A or lower and Jackson’s was AA or lower.
The only reason some people call guys like LaHair AAAA players is because we know more about the players who play well in AAA, but can’t play at all in MLB.
I guess what I’m saying is that I don’t think the difference between leagues (AAA and AA for example) has the same impact on each player’s performance. If you take a large enough sample of players who have played at the MLB level and compare their AAA stats we’ll see a fairly consistent difference in talent, but what about all the players who played AAA, but never got any meaningful playing time at the MLB level? I’d bet if you looked at a large enough sample of those types of players that you’d find a consistently huge drop in talent.
Is Valbuena one of the guys who will never have meaningful playing time at the big league level (a couple full seasons) or does he improve? That I don’t know obviously, but I think there’s a big enough difference between the leagues in talent that we shouldn’t assume how any one player is going to adjust. Know what I mean?
@ shawndgoldman:
.260/.320/.440 this year and he’ll get better next.
How I’m hoping the deckchairs will be rearranged tonight
CF DeJesus
SS Castro
RF LaHair
LF Adolfo
1B Rizzo
C Geo
2B Barney
3B It doesn’t matter at this point, so long as it’s 8th
P
Berselius wrote:
That should be the entire lineup except for Rizzo’s spot.
Cubs signed 3rd round pick Ryan McNeil for slot, 10 of top twelve picks have signed (h/t Brett). Almora and second rounder Duane Underwood are the only two left
If we’re predicting Rizzo lines, I agree with the ~.260/.325/.480 that Oliver is predicting. And I expect the OBP to improve as he gets older too.
@ Berselius:
Did Brett write down how much budget the Cubs have left to throw at Almora and Underwood?
@ Rice Cube:
I don’t think so, but I know they’re definitely under their bonus pool amount for the guys they’ve signed.
@ Berselius:
I guess depending on how many of the round 11-40 guys they want to get that would decrease the available $ going towards Almora and Underwood.
Jon Heyman, ladies and gentlemen.
I set up a poll for people to use to enter what they think Rizzo’s wOBA will be this season in an aside here: http://www.obstructedview.net/aside/poll-what-will-anthony-rizzos-woba-be-this-season.html
@ Berselius:
According to Baseball America they have about $5 million left, but that doesn’t include the most recent signing. It appears the Cubs have taken the exact opposite approach as the Astros who went cheap in the 1st and loaded up after that.
@ jm21:
That makes sense to me. The Jackson and McNutt examples are good ones.
I also wonder if the translations are not capturing reality accurately, in the sense that it conveys a “normal distribution” of outcomes…. when we should really be expecting something more bi-modal. In other words, maybe we should’t be expecting Rizzo to play at his translation level… but at either something way below that (for guys that can’t cut it at MLB) or a bit higher (for guys that can).
@ mb21:
Is that $5M total, or $5M of “overslot” money?
@ shawndgoldman:
I think MLE’s are rather limited to begin with. I know Colin Wyers has ripped on them more than once and for good reason. They do have their value, but it’s limited. I think you’re onto something when you say that some will be way below and others probably about right on. It’s one of the reasons why I’m not as excited as the rest of you about Rizzo. For one thing he already made his big league debut last year so there’s less excitement for me getting to see the first AB. For another thing, he’s a 1st baseman so he’s going to have to hit extremely well. Finally, prospects break your heart.
I was super excited for Castro’s debut. It’s rare to have someone fly through the system like he does at a premium position like that. Before him I’d go back to Felix Pie and that was about the time I started to realize that prospects, no matter how good they are, are more likely to fail than succeed.
I hope Rizzo works out, but I’m prepared for it to not work out. MLB is just so damn difficult.
@ jm21:
Good thing we got rid of him while he was still doping…
No wonder the Red Sox wanted him. Shit, Manny and Ortiz were enhancing their games. Probably thought they could pump Bird up so he good fly.
We need to start selling high. We need to trade pieces like Garza/Soto when we can get something quantifiable in return. Garza is league average and Soto is fucking platooning. I hope we get to jettisoning Dempster before the second-half collapse.
mb21 wrote:
Why, was http://www.whatwillanthonyrizzoswobabethisseason.com already taken?