I don't have much time today, so this will be a short preview. The Brewers are in bad shape, with several players (Chris Narveson, Mat Gamel, Marco Estrada, Alex Gonzalez, various catchers) out, Aramis Ramirez and Ryan Braun banged up, and others (Weeks) underperforming. The Cubs might be looking ahead to their next series with the Twins, who are in fierce competition for the #1 draft pick next year.
Pitching Matchups
Tuesday: Ryan Dempster, RHP vs Yovani Gallardo, RHP, 7:10 PM CT
Dempster is still bafflingly winless.It's June. Facing a good pitcher like Gallardo isn't going to help with that streak either. Gallardo shut down the Cubs offense back in April, striking out six in seven innings and allowing just one run. He's been very wild this season, walking a batter nearly every other inning after posting a 2.56 BB/9 last year.
Wednesday: Paul Maholm, LHP vs Zack Greinke, RHP, 7:10 PM CT
Maholm gave up four runs in 5.1 innings against the fearsome Giants offense in his last outing. He strung together four very good starts after his opening disasters, but he's been knocked around in the four starts since then.
Grienke has avoided repeating the lousy start to his Brewers career, mowing down batters and keeping the ball in the yard. He has a 3.46 ERA despite a .368 BABIP.
Thursday: Matt Garza, RHP vs Randy Wolf, LHP
Garza's numbers skyrocked upwards thanks to giving up five homers to the limp offenses of the Pirates and Astros. He bounced back with a good start against the Giants but was unable to go deep in the game.
Randy Wolf has been doing Randy Wolf things this year (not striking anyone out) and has had a harder time finding the plate. He shut out the Cubs for six inning earlier this year, but has given up four or more runs in nearly half his starts.
For my fellow nerds:
If you want to watch the Venus transit and don’t have the proper eyewear or if it’s cloudy where you live you can watch stuff online at http://www.nasa.gov/ntv
The draft has been great for our traffic, but the phrase that’s giving the most hits is “bruce maxwell mlb draft”. He was drafted by the A’s (dying laughing)
Sandusky could probably come out on the stand and say that he enjoys raping little boys and still get acquitted with this jury:
http://www.seattlepi.com/sports/article/Sandusky-jury-process-shows-Penn-State-connections-3609135.php
Has Demp simply had tougher matchups? When your team only has like 5 wins, and you’re on a 5-man rotation, it’s going to be hard to pick up wins.
@ Aisle424:
For what it’s worth it’s tough to find anyone in the prospective jurors pool that has no connection to the University. My brother’s wife is from State College, and her dad works for some company in the area and even he knew Curley and some of the other guys in there. It’s not a huge town.
@ shawndgoldman:
So I can’t look right at the sun?
hmm… i don’t have b’s magic twitter embed skills
former moneyball pick sean doolittle converted to pitching this year and has been called up by the a’s after striking out 48 in 25 innings across three levels.
@ GW:
You need to be an OV Premium member to do it. Send me $100 and I’ll enable you
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The contents of this username are private and legally privileged, and the violation of my personal privacy is punishable by loss of dinner.
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Everyone should post that so MB can’t steal your identity. It’s legal otherwise.
So I guess the consensus is that one of the ways to game the system was to sign the rounds 6-10 guys underslot and then throw all your money at either the top picks (i.e. Almora) or guys in rounds 11-40 where there’s no penalty or risk for not signing a player because that budget doesn’t count towards the slot restrictions.
Anyone else having mlb.tv issues?
@ GBTS:
Did Yellon write something like that?
@ mb21:
(dying laughing) Probably, at some point.
No, it was some stupid thing going around Facebook today. People thought that if they just posted that as their status, it would protect all their personal info.
I miss it when Soriano was good at baseball.
Cubs started today’s game in the 9th inning.
Trade Soriano now!
They made Gallardo work a bunch that inning. Nice to see.
@ Rice Cube:
I thought the later round guys count to slot or penalties if over 100k
How many rounds were drafted today? Is there a list of who all the Cubs took somewhere?
@ WaLi22:
They do. But the 11th round guys and later, if you don’t sign them, that isn’t counted against the budget. So I guess it makes sense to take a risk for those picks, and not in the first ten rounds where they’d get a comp pick but lose that slot’s money if unsigned.
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2012/draftcaster.jsp
15 rounds done. Sort by team. Muskat also has a rundown of the first ten rounds on her blog.
Just realized slot was $7.2 million for the Astros so if their $6 million offer is true the Astros were offering him way below slot. Obviously they didn’t really care if they signed him or not.
@ WaLi:
I’m not going to tell you what to do.
BA on why rounds 6-10 turned into the senior rounds
@ GW:
There are interesting market forces at play here. It seems to me that this gives the seniors drafted in rounds 6-10 more leverage than they’d normally have. “Go ahead. Don’t sign me. You’ll lose my allotment.” Before this year, they would have no leverage at all. Now at least they have a little.
@ GW:
What do you think of the Cubs draft at this point?
@ Rice Cube:
thank you
Did MLB completely freeze or what? Good time for the batteries in my radio to die.
Did they serious just call a suicide squeeze?!
http://www.elevenwarriors.com/2012/06/11655/b1ggie-pac
@ Rice Cube:
all bunts are welcome.
@ Rice Cube:
It was a safety squeeze. The TV guys said it probably was DeJesus doing it on his own since the infield was playing back. And it worked just fine. No complaints from me.
@ mb21:
almora doesn’t look all that special to my eye, but he is young for a hs draftee (just turned 18), which is always a good thing. with all the rumors floating around beforehand, i believe the FO when they say they had him as the number one player on the board. this will be our first chance to evaluate the acumen of our SuperStarScoutingStaff, since pretty much all the experts had him in the 5-7 range.
i thought it was also pretty interesting how heavily they targeted pitching. pretty much everyone agrees with the whole “always take the best player available” philosophy in the baseball draft, so it speaks to how godawful the pitching in the system is that they felt compelled to abandon that tact entirely and throw as many arms against the wall as possible.
@ GW:
I feel the same on Almaro. I probably wouldn’t have taken him, but they loved the guy and wouldn’t have gotten him later. So I’m fine with it. It will be interesting to watch him develop. I don’t have high expectations. To me he seems to lack the size you’d expect from an impact bat. Sounds like his defense is pretty good right now, but what CF draft prospect doesn’t have that said about them? He needs to stick in CF and I’d never bet money on any player sticking at the position he was drafted (other than pitcher). I liked their next couple picks, really question the next one and considering TJS for one of the others I’m very confused and would assume they don’t get him signed.
I know it’s a weak draft class so I’m trying to factor all that in, but I’m not impressed with the talent they acquired so far. That could just be talent available this year and the new rules, but if it’s more about the rules then the Cubs have a long, long rebuilding road ahead of them.
If the analysts end up considering this a good draft and the type we should expect going forward it’s about like the Pirates trying to build through their farm system while not spending much money. This is the first draft I’ve followed that I can remember not being really excited about at least one guy they drafted. Again, that could be the quality of the draft itself.
i’m especially excited about pierce johnson (aka prince albert) joining the system
Dempster is perfect so far.
The Cubs are going to lose this one badly.
mlb.tv problems for anyone else?
@ ACT:
That’s great. I’d love to see a late-career renaissance from him. He was so much fun to watch.
mb21 wrote:
yup. depressing. going to have to get lucky on a few of these picks, without a doubt.
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
MLB.com is completely locked up as near as I can tell.
@ josh:
I admire Josh’s ability to not half-ass a jinx. Well played, sir.
How the fuck is Andy Pettite doing this?
shawndgoldman wrote:
i think this is unlikely to happen because of the reputations of the agents involved. i’m sure all these guys agreed to below slot deals before being picked, and if agents re-neg on those deals teams will pass on their clients down the road.
It would be unbelievably awesome if Prior came to Wrigley with the Red Sox.
@ mb21:
fwiw, kiley mcdaniel of espn insider seems to like the draft
What is slot for the 339th pick (start of 11th round)? It’s $125,000 for pick 338 so I’d think slot in the 11th is over the allowed limit of $100,000.
@ GW:
That’s good, but it’s a terrible sign for this rebuilding process if this is good. I don’t see how this team can’t be active on the free agent market this offseason. The need talent in a bad way.
Cliff Lee just doesn’t want to win this year.
@ mb21:
dunno. i got the impression that slots more or less get thrown out the window starting in round 11, with teams capped at 100k plus whatever money they have leftover in their allotted budget
Cliff went 7 2/3 innings, struck out 12 and walked 1. His FIP was 0.28. He fell to 0-3.
@ GW:
This is what I read as well. $100K max after the tenth round but you can apply savings from the first ten rounds to the later rounds.
@ GW:
Good point.
Here’s another interesting thought: if a team planned to pay overslot with their first pick, and underslot with other picks from the first 10 rounds, they could draft a “signability” guy in the 11+ rounds as insurance that the first rounder doesn’t sign. They don’t get his slot money, but would have the “overslot budget” from the first round guy.
GW wrote:
That makes sense.
Cubs have struck out 13 times so far.
@ shawndgoldman:
Wouldn’t you just be best off to draft best player available with each pick? It’s stacked in the team’s favor now.
@ shawndgoldman:
They can’t do that. The budget for that slot is forfeited if he doesn’t sign.
Castro messed up again.
@ Rice Cube:
I get that. Let me use numbers, because words aren’t working for me.
I draft a player in round 1 that I know might want overslot money. So I draft a bunch of
overslotunderslot players in later rounds, to “bank overslot money” for my first-round guy. Let’s say his slot gets $5M, but I bank an extra $1M by signing underslot guys in rounds 3-10… or something like that. Then, in round 11 I draft a guy, with the intention to offer him $1.1M if (and only if) the first rounder doesn’t sign. I wouldn’t get the $5M of slot money, but I would be able to apply the $1M of “overslot” money I had budgeted for him.@ mb21:
Not if you’re hearing from your first-rounder’s agent that he’s not going to sign for slot money.
Let’s say you’re Theo, and Boras comes to you and says “we’re not signing for slot money, and you need to dig up some more with your later picks.” At that point you have to decide whether you give up on that year’s 1st round pick…. or try to save enough slot money in the later rounds. If you do the latter, it makes sense to draft an overslot guy past round 10 (when there’s no extra penalty for not signing a guy) so you have something to do with that overslot money you saved in the middle rounds.
@ shawndgoldman:
I draft the player and offer him slot. If he doesn’t sign I get the same (basically) spot next year. There’s just no risk for a team at this point to stick with slot or less. I wouldn’t go over slot for anyone. Besides you’re likely to get a better talent in the 2nd than the 11th so you’re skimping on the better talent to pay a lesser talent more later on. The kind of money you’re talking about is late 1st round money and all of them were long gone by the 11th.
Dempster can has win?
There were only 10 top 60 talents remaining entering the 2nd round. The best was the 35th and that’s about 1 million slot. Or less.
@ mb21:
Right, so you’d decide to tell Boras to take a hike. That makes sense. I’m talking more if you go the other way and scrounge up money for your no. 1 pick.
…. although your post at 68. seems to indicate my strategy just wouldn’t be an option, anyways.
Wtf, Cubs? Are the Brewers this bad, or the Cubs just having a good night?
@ josh:
Both. The Brew Crew is definitely pretty bad right now, with a ton of key players hurt.
@ shawndgoldman:
Yeah it’s not about me being willing or unwilling to spend over slot. It just doesn’t make sense to do it anymore. Like Tango said, this is a hard slot without it being called one. I see no incentive at this point to do so. Not by more than 4.9999% over the total budget anyway. People keep talking about how there is a little leeway but there really isn’t. Not as long as the best players come off the board like they did this year anyway.
I’m interested to see how teams adjust to the draft next year.
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/10736/cubs-pick-almora-talking-about-college#more
Where did Levine get the $4.7MM from? I thought #6 slot was at $3.25MM.
Cliff Lee is smart: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=21897867&c_id=mlb&partnerId=aw-4915599946999961930-996
Of course, he’s not smart enough to figure out how to win.
@ ACT:
He should have his guys score 10 runs. Worked for Dempster.
I knew the Brewers were hurting, but I guess I expected more out of their pitching staff. I guess pitching was never really what they were known for.
@ josh:
Gallardo is a good pitcher (in fact, their whole rotation is quite solid). Just had a bad day.
Even today, he had a 10:1 K/BB. Just those home runs that killed him. It happens in small sample sizes.
This game in DC will never end.
@ ACT:
Right right. Well, one of the rare days where the Cubs kicked ass. Like finding $20 in Walmart.
Big Time Timmy Jim (Lincecum) is having yet another rough day.
@ Rice Cube:
False.
Bryce Harper shut me right up.
@ ACT:
Pitching’s a tough game. 2-3 years ago he’s one of the best pitchers in the universe, now he can’t pitch his way out of wet paper bag.
@ josh:
He’s logged tons of innings on that arm, maybe the warranty expired.
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22040567&c_id=mlb
S-A-F-E-T-Y safety squeeze!
@ Rice Cube:
You can squeeze if you to.
You can squeeze Campana in.
Cause you runs and if you need runs
Well you might need to bunt.
Ryan Theriot > Andrew Cashner
Because I was glutton for crappy baseball, I saw the I-Cubs again in person tonight. Somehow tonight’s game managed to be lamer than last night, until the end.
1) I didn’t arrive til the bottom of the 3rd. Saw the I-Cubs record zero hits all night.
2) Anthony Rizzo was used as a pinch runner in the 2nd. My highlight was watching him coach 1B a few innings.
3) Vitters hit one ball hard, but had another craptastic night at the plate. Threw in a TOOTBLAN for good measure.
4) B. Jackson saw a steady diet of off speed stuff and continued to whiff on a number of them. I missed his single early in the game.
5) Saw J. Jackson pitch for the first time in person. I didn’t watch every pitch speed but I never saw a pitch over 89mph and fastballs were few and far between. He had OKC really off balance during his 5 IP (4K), but it was more Jamie Moyer than Randy Johnson.
6) Dolis started the 9th with a 3-1 lead. I don’t think I’m some grouchy old man, but like nearly every other I-Cub I saw the last two nights, he moved like the ‘before’ part of one of those 5 hour energy commercials. It was like coming to pitch was a big inconvenience for him. He was throwing an easy 98 though once the inning started.
7) Dolis gave up 2 quick singles before he started to give a shit and promptly truck out the 3 and 4 hitters. Then fittingly, gave up a 900 foot homer to almost dead CF on a 1-2 count to Brad FUCKING Synder sending all 50 fans home happy.
8) I’m sure losing 6 straight and spending your nights in OKC isn’t fun, but I was struck how the I-Cubs were playing like shit and generally looked like they couldn’t care less that they were. Presumably they didn’t have their Cubs Way manuals handy.
Chet Masterson wrote:
They lost six in a row and were playing like shit? I’d say they did have their “Cubs Way” manuals, studied them, and aced the test.
Since May 15th (when he hit his first of the season) Soriano has the most HR total in MLB with 9. Not sure if this is directly related to his lighter bat, but it seems to have helped.
Last 28 days:
.276/.351/.644 OPS of .944
Last 14
.289 / .386 / .737 OPS of 1.123
Several of you have mentioned he looks like he is playing hurt too. Pretty impressive streak he has going.
@ WaLi:
I’m sure the lighter bat has to help somewhat. It could just be one of his notorious streaks though. But it’s nice to see he’s still capable of these streaks.
@ Mucker:
Yeah, some team may actually be interested in him as a DH assuming the Cubs pay all or damn near all of his remaining contract.
@ Mucker:
What impresses me the most is his walks he has been taking. Sure, it’s because he is crushing the ball, but his career OBP is .323.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/the-children-are-the-future-cubs-minor-league-update-sponsored-by-westinghouse.html
@ WaLi:
Maybe he’s finally figuring it out? (dying laughing)
@ Mucker:
Nah. (dying laughing)