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  • Series Preview: Carlos Zambrano (43-46) at Chicago Cubs (36-52)

    To judge from all the negative buzz I've seen around the interwebs heading into this series, you'd think that Zambrano is starting all three games and Cubs fans should boo the crap out of him. However, he is slated to start zero games in this series. Which is a bummer, because I love watching Z pitch.

    Team Overviews

    (NL ranks in parens)

      Marlins Cubs
    wOBA .305 (11th) .298 (15th)
    BSR -2.6 (12th) 2.8 (5th)
    UZR -17.1 (13th) 11.9 (3rd)
    DRS -17 (12th) +12 (4th)
    SP FIP 3.75 (8th) 4.02 (12th)
    RP FIP 3.76 (7th) 4.74 (16th)

    I'm surprised that the Marlins bullpen numbers aren't much lower, given how much of disaster Heath Bell has been this year. The Marlins and Cubs bullpens have posted the same ERA despite wildly different FIP. The Cubs pen maintains its solid lead for the worst in the majors, though after park effects are included the Cardinals pen is right behind.

    Position Players

    Giancarlo Stanton has been the main cog in the Marlins offense. Unfortunately for the Marlins, he had knee surgery at the beginning of July and is missing a month. Luckily his replacement, Justin Ruggiano, has been tearing the cover off the ball with a .385/.452/.736 (!!) line in 106 PAs. Between the two of them they've provided 34.5 wRAA for the Marlins. Their next "best" hitter has been the disappointing Hanley Ramirez, who has posted a .246/.323/.424 line, while big offseason acquisition Jose Reyes has outdone him with an anemic .264/.335/.374. In 555 PAs, John Buck, Gaby Sanchez, and Chris Coglan have combined to post -30.8 wRAA, pretty much wiping out the monster seasons of Stanton and Ruggiano. It's not really clear what happened with Sanchez, who was a solid 2-3 WAR guy in 2010 and 2011. He's 29 right now so he could be a cautionary tale for anyone kicking the tires on Bryan LaHair, though for what it's worth most of Sanchez's value derived from OBP unlike LaHair's monster SLG.

    Injury Update

    Stanton is the only impact injury of note for the Marlins, though they are also without Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez), who has a sprained UCL, and former Cub and Kevin Gregg trade piece Jose Ceda, who had yet another injury early in the year and is out for the season with TJS.

    Aside from Stewart no one of significance is currently on the Cubs injury list. Lendy Castillo is recovering from a severe case of David Patton disease in the AZL.

    Pitching Matchups

    Tuesday: Anibal Sanchez, RHP (4.12, 3.43, 3.58, 3.50) vs Travis Wood, LHP (3.05, 4.69, 4.54, 4.15), 7:05 PM CT

    Sanchez is best remembered for a particularly awful walk-filled no-hitter he threw a few years ago and probably qualifies for the Wandy Rodriguez Hall of Fame. After that infamous no-hitter and many injury struggles, he's been a quietly great pitcher for the Marlins in the past two plus seasons. After walking everything in sight early in his career, he settled down and even shockingly brought his walk rate below 3 BB/9 last year. He's had some troubles with strand rate this year but has generally been solid. I think people are going to be very surprised at the huge contract he's going to get as a FA this offseason.

    Wood's numbers are still very skewed by that 4 HR performance against the Padres pitching with 30+ mph winds blowout out of the park. Since then he's been a very solid pitcher, and has done much to slience the Sean Marshall deal critics. He's gone deeper into games as the season has progressed and looks like he'll be holding down a cost-controlled spot in the rotation for seasons to come.

    Wednesday: Josh Johnson, RHP (4.28, 3.07, 3.56, 2.91) vs Jeff Samardzija, RHP (4.71, 3.65, 3.51, 4.08), 7:05 PM CT

    Tommny John surgery never slowed Johnson down. I thought he missed all of last year, but he actually managed to throw 60 innings (9 starts). The guy is a pitching machine. He's had some trouble with BABIP this year but he's the True Ace that he was before the surgery.

    When last I checked in, Samardzija was getting rocked by everyone and his brother and it looked like he was untransformed. It turned out that he was just working on a new curveball (pfx agreed). In a season like this one, why not? He ended his experiment and promptly struck out eleven Braves in seven innings, and threw a quality start against the Mets in his last start ten days ago. Samardzija is already at 101 innings on the year after throwing 80, 120, and 123 in the previous three seasons so arm fatigue might be setting in over the next few weeks.

    Thursday: Mark Buehrle, LHP (3.13, 3.75, 3.97, 3.92) vs Paul Maholm, LHP (4.33, 4.33, 4.30, 4.07), 1:20 PM CT

    Buehrle's pretty much the same guy he's always been: work fast, throw strikes, put the ball in play. His strikeout rate has jumped from the pathetic ~4.5 K/9 from his last few years with the Sox to 5.44 now that he has some pitchers to strike out. He's actually been on an odd strikeout tear, striking out 29 batters in his last 28.2 innings.

    When last I looked at Maholm's numbers his FIP was pretty terrible. Since then he's had a string og 5-6 strikeout, 1 walk, 0 HR, ~7 IP games. I can't wait until a team like the Indians or Orioles makes a dumb trade for him at the deadline then promptly loses 20 of their next 25 games.

    Berselius
    He's got a two day head start on you, which is more than he needs. He's got friends in every town and village from here to the Sudan, he speaks a dozen languages, knows every local custom, he'll blend in, disappear, you'll never see him again. With any luck, he's got the grail already.
    Berselius

    79 Responses to “Series Preview: Carlos Zambrano (43-46) at Chicago Cubs (36-52)”

    1. Suburban kid 1 Suburban kid says:

      MishSK wrote:

      My ass —> kinda fat. Worth a look?

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    2. Mish 2 Mish says:

      @ Suburban kid:
      Nice snark.

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    3. Rizzo the Rat 3 Rizzo the Rat says:

      Jose Bautista and Joey Votto are going to the DL. David Ortiz might. Basically every great hitter is hurt.

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    4. mb21 4 mb21 says:

      @ Rizzo the Rat:
      Tony Campana isn’t.

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    5. Mish 5 Mish says:

      Mish wrote:

      Nice snark.

      Blegh. This would have been a good place to call you “The Snark Knight”.

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    6. mb21 7 mb21 says:

      GMs get all the babes.

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    7. Rizzo the Rat 8 Rizzo the Rat says:

      @ mb21:
      The injury bug will catch him soon enough. He can run but he can’t hide.

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    8. Berselius 9 Berselius says:

      @ mb21:

      Thanks for pushing up our Pizza Hut MILF search rankings

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    9. WenningtonsGorillaCock 10 WenningtonsGorillaCock says:

      mb21 wrote:

      Theo’s stalker

      Not objectively hot.

      MLBTR ———–> only 1 sandwich pick for losing FA w/qualifying offer (unlike what was said earlier)

      http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/the-new-draft-pick-compensation-system.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

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    10. Berselius 11 Berselius says:

      @ WenningtonsGorillaCock:

      That’s really strange. The signing team loses the pick but the old team doesn’t get it. So it still has first round value to the team that signs the player

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    11. mb21 12 mb21 says:

      @ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
      You get one sandwich pick, but you also get the other team’s 1st round pick.

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    12. mb21 13 mb21 says:

      @ Berselius:
      The other team doesn’t get the pick? What the fuck?

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    13. mb21 14 mb21 says:

      That changes things. I think Dempster will be traded now. Those are just bizarre rules.

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    14. dylanj 15 dylanj says:

      i see Theo’s stalker shops at the same dress store as the former Mrs Sandberg

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    15. WenningtonsGorillaCock 16 WenningtonsGorillaCock says:

      mb21 wrote:

      You get one sandwich pick, but you also get the other team’s 1st round pick.

      The article I linked to says you don’t get the other team’s 1st round pick – it simply disappears and the 1st round gets contracted.

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    16. josh 17 josh says:

      @ mb21:
      For sure that makes it seem more likely. That makes more sense of all this “traded within the week” talk.

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    17. GW 19 GW says:

      billingsley to the dl for the dodgers

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    18. Rizzo the Rat 20 Rizzo the Rat says:

      We should just start naming people who are not going to the DL.

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    19. GBTS 21 GBTS says:

      Rizzo the Rat wrote:

      Basically GBTS’ offense is hurt.

      Bautista
      Longoria
      Stanton
      Ortiz
      Lowrie
      Gardner

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    20. EnricoPallazzo 22 EnricoPallazzo says:

      @ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
      that’s new, right? i don’t ever remember that and i feel like i would because it’s pretty bizarre.

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    21. EnricoPallazzo 23 EnricoPallazzo says:

      @ GBTS:

      wow…brutal. i feel for you…my best SP so far this year has been brandon morrow (who i dropped like a month ago due to injury). my other pitchers are lincecum, haren, josh johnson, and cliff lee. not really a tone of injuries there but they’ve all sucked far, far beyond my expectations.

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    22. GBTS 24 GBTS says:

      @ Mish:

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    23. GBTS 25 GBTS says:

      @ EnricoPallazzo:
      My pitching is pretty mediocre sans Strasburg, so I’m holding onto every one to at least have depth in case the Nats really do shut him down in September.

      So, for the time being, I’m not starting a 1B or a Utility. (dying laughing)

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    24. GW 26 GW says:

      @ Rizzo the Rat:

      matt garza and ryan dempster

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    25. GBTS 27 GBTS says:

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    26. mb21 28 mb21 says:

      The family for Paterno will conduct its own investigation (on the forum here: http://www.obstructedview.net/forum.html?mingleforumaction=viewtopic&t=110.0#postid-1534)

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    27. 29 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      As much as I still like Z and miss his presence on the team, I’m glad he’s not slated to pitch. He would have been ruthlessly reviled by the Wrigley crowd.

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    28. GBTS 30 GBTS says:

      Just doesn’t translate to Spanish.

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    29. GBTS 31 GBTS says:

      @ mb21:
      Maybe they can get the guy OJ hired to help find the real killers.

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    30. Rice Cube 32 Rice Cube says:

      @ GBTS:
      Some Puerto Rican guy?

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    31. 34 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ GBTS:

      Yes it does: Esa es una pregunta payaso, chamo.

      No need for the “puto, ” it’s just a superfluous profanity here, and chamo, at least for speakers of Venezuelan Spanish, is a closer to the colloquial meaning of “bro.”

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    32. 35 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Rizzo the Rat:

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    33. 36 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      Miles just posted this on FB:

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    34. 37 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ GBTS:

      (dying laughing) I just posted the same thing on the forum.

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    35. Rice Cube 38 Rice Cube says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:
      Wow, did Sully never eat his vegetables?

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    36. frysredjacket 39 frysredjacket says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:
      “Kill the Hobbit, Kill the Hobbit..”
      Sung to the tune of the classic “Kill the wabbit.” of Looney Tunes fame.

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    37. 40 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      Apparently he hasn’t been having his Ent-draughts.

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    38. Rice Cube 41 Rice Cube says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:
      He could use some elevensies.

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    39. 42 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Rice Cube:

      Looks like Paul has been having plenty of second-breakfasts

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    40. mb21 43 mb21 says:

      Sullivan looks even smaller than usual in that picture. (dying laughing)

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    41. 44 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      Paywall free Miles runs down the Cubs’ options when/if Dempster and Garza are traded: http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/7006

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    42. GBTS 45 GBTS says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:
      Take note, all Venezuelan memes run through MO first from now on. (dying laughing)

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    43. EnricoPallazzo 46 EnricoPallazzo says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:
      i’d bet good money that big Z is seriously contemplating murdering sully with his bare hands in that pic.

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    44. Rizzo the Rat 47 Rizzo the Rat says:

      Dolis struck a guy out!

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    45. GBTS 49 GBTS says:

      @ GBTS:
      (dying laughing)

      That was supposed to be a response to Enrico, not Rizzo.

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    46. 50 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      From that Miles blog:

      –Eric Jokisch. I’m intrigued by this guy. A lefty, Jokisch is 5-1 with a 2.77 ERA and a WHIP of 1.01 at Tennessee. In 55.1 innings, he has given up 36 hits while walking 20 and striking out 24. Jokisch was an 11-rounder in 2010 out of Northwestern. He’s from Virginia, Ill. “He can really pitch,” said Oneri Fleita, the Cubs’ VP for player personnel. “He’s a smart, athletic kid and a hard worker.”

      DJ? MB? Anyone got a read on this Jokisch?

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    47. Rizzo the Rat 51 Rizzo the Rat says:

      Roy is pitching!

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    48. Rizzo the Rat 52 Rizzo the Rat says:

      I mean Doc. Though Oswalt is also pitching now.

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    49. 53 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Rizzo the Rat:

      I want to punch Roy Oswalt in the mouth.

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    50. Rizzo the Rat 54 Rizzo the Rat says:

      Doc strikes out the first 2 batters looking.

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    51. mb21 55 mb21 says:

      @ Mercurial Outfielder:
      Prior to this year I’d have said he looks pretty decent, but his sub 4 k/9 this year is absolutely pathetic. We could expect some regression, but I’m guessing at this point he’d be lucky to amount to anything. That’s an awful strikeout rate.

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    52. mb21 56 mb21 says:

      @ Rizzo the Rat:
      Aaron Cook is in awe.

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    53. Rice Cube 57 Rice Cube says:

      The Tigers just got shut out for the first time all season. If I’m not mistaken, that means no MLB team escaped being shut out this season.

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    54. 58 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      OMGSTEROIDSPEDSHOFWHHHHAAAARRRRGGGARRRBBBLLLL

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    55. josh 59 josh says:

      I guess Wood didn’t do so well? When I left for my walk, the game was close.

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    56. Rizzo the Rat 60 Rizzo the Rat says:

      @ mb21:
      Roy’s in trouble now. He could take lessons from Mr. Cook.

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    57. josh 61 josh says:

      It’s 2008 and the opponent is the Rockies. Let’s do this!!

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    58. Rice Cube 62 Rice Cube says:

      @ josh:
      Looks like you came back just in time for the comeback attempt.

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    59. Rizzo the Rat 63 Rizzo the Rat says:

      4 straight hits against Halladay.

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    60. Rice Cube 64 Rice Cube says:

      I’m looking for Cubs rally caps on Google and two of the first ten pictures are of Aisley (dying laughing)

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    61. josh 65 josh says:

      Why the fuck does it say “foul bunt” with the Cubs down four!?

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    62. Rice Cube 66 Rice Cube says:

      @ josh:
      DeJesus actually tried to bunt with the infield playing back. Not a terrible idea according to Pat.

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    63. Rizzo the Rat 67 Rizzo the Rat says:

      Bring in Heath Bell!

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    64. Rizzo the Rat 68 Rizzo the Rat says:

      @ josh:
      You want baserunners is why. Extra bases don’t matter.

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    65. Rizzo the Rat 69 Rizzo the Rat says:

      Andrew McCutchen: .375/.427/.659

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    66. josh 70 josh says:

      @ Rice Cube:
      OK. Had me worried for an instant. I was really hoping Rizzo would come through there.

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    67. Rizzo the Rat 71 Rizzo the Rat says:

      Clevenger is playing third base?

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    68. josh 72 josh says:

      @ Rizzo the Rat:
      Couldn’t tell on GAmeday. I thought he was sacrificing.

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    69. Rizzo the Rat 73 Rizzo the Rat says:

      Aroldis Chapman has 80 strikeouts in 42 2/3 innings. I still think he relies on his fastball too much.

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    70. Rice Cube 74 Rice Cube says:

      @ Rizzo the Rat:
      He’s the new Koyie.

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    71. mb21 75 mb21 says:

      @ Rizzo the Rat:
      Is he the best player in baseball?

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    72. Rizzo the Rat 76 Rizzo the Rat says:

      @ mb21:
      Hard to say, though he’s having the best year of anyone.

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    73. Rizzo the Rat 77 Rizzo the Rat says:

      Who’s that efficient reliever the Marlins brought in who looked like Heath Bell?

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    74. mb21 78 mb21 says:

      @ Rizzo the Rat:
      I guess every 25 years the Pirates get the best player in the game.

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