Did anyone think the Orioles would be in the playoffs? Did anyone think the O's might actually pull off the AL East division win? Well, they're in the playoffs and they very nearly won the AL East. The O's essentially replaced the Red Sox so the AL East still had 3 very good teams as it has for the last several years. How good are they? I don't really know. They're better than they're pre-season projections, but not as good as they played this year. That's about all I've got.
Can they beat Yankees? You bet. These aren't the same Yankees we're used to seeing every season. In 2011 Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano and Brett Gardner each had more than 5 fWAR. CC Sabathia did too. Granderson and Sabathia each had 7.1 fWAR. Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez each chipped in 4.3 fWAR.
This year, Robinson Cano's 7.9 fWAR makes him a stronger MVP candidate than Miguel Cabrera. He was also the only position player on the Yankees who had more than 4.0 fWAR. Sabthia led the pitchers with 4.8. In 2011 the Yankees had an impressive 4 players with more than 5 fWAR and 2 of them were over 7. Only Cano topped 7 this year and nobody else topped 5.
This year's team had only 5 players who had 3 or more fWAR. Future Hall of Famer Derek Jeter had a very solid season at this age as he added 3.2 and Nick Swisher had 4.0. Hiroki Kuroda had 3.9 and only he and Sabathia produced more than 1.9 fWAR.
So this isn't the same type of team we've seen the Yankees play in October with year after year. They're older and not as good as they once were. Still, they have some fantastic talent that I really enjoy watching. Robinson Cano is one of my favorite players in the game. Sabathia is a workhorse and he's a good one. Ichiro is now a Yankee so that makes it even better. I even like Jeter. I miss Mariano Rivera and while the Yankees didn't actually miss him that much this season thanks to Rafael Soriano, replacing his post-season success will be a very difficult task. 9th inning leads in the past weren't anything to fret over. That won't be the case this offseason.
For the Orioles, Adam Jones was worth a team best 4.6 fWAR. Jones is what Felix Pie could have been if things worked out for him. A low walk guy with some pop. This year though, Jones hit for a lot of power, still didn't walk much and even despite a below average UZR was damn productive. Matt Wieters was next with 4.1 fWAR though he only had a 106 wRC+. JJ Hardy's 77 wRC+ managed 2.8 fWAR thanks to more than 10 UZR. Chris Davis (2.1) was the only other position player with more than 2 fWAR. Only Jason Hammel (2.9 in 116 innings) and Wei-Yin Chen (2.2) had more than 2 fWAR among Orioles pitchers.
Storylines you may or may not care about
Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter.
The Orioles are actually in the playoffs. No joke.
Brad Pitt is not the GM of either of these teams.
Projected Lineups
Orioles
- Nate McLouth
- JJ Hardy
- Chris Davis
- Adam Jones
- Matt Wieters
- Jim Thome
- Mark Reynolds
- Ryan Flaherty
- Manny Machado
Yankees
- Derek Jeter
- Ichiro
- Alex Rodriguez
- Robinson Cano
- Mark Teixeira
- Curtis Granderson
- Nick Swisher
- Russell Martin
- Raul Ibanez
Rotations
Yankees: CC Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes
Orioles: Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez (nothing else announced)
Statistics
- wRC+: Yankees 113 (1st), Orioles 95 (11th)
- FIP- (SP): Yankees 98 (4th), Orioles 106 (7th)
- FIP- (RP): Yankees 85 (4th), Orioles 86 (5th)
- UZR: Yankees -10.8 (10th), Tigers -26.5 (12th)
- DRS: Orioles -13 (11th), Yankees -22 (12th)
- BsR: Yankees -0.3 (8th), Orioles -4.4 (11th)
Using Oliver, SG has calculates the Yankees have a 55-60% chance of winning the 5-game series. That's about what I'd think. I think the Yakees have the advantage in this series, but I just don't know how much of one.
The O’s need to have Jeffrey Maier throw out the first pitch in every game this series (dying laughing)
Hmmm. This sounds like Brenly with the Adolfo/Rodrigo guy.
In other news, Redbox has the Avengers. Yay.
Stupid A’s.
Strasburg could have done this
Gio has a no-hitter through 2.
@ Berselius:
Part of me hopes the Nats get swept because of how stupid it is that Strasburg was benched. Even worse, part of me then hopes they never get a chance to win it again. (dying laughing)
@ Rizzo the Rat:
With his pitch count he may not last 3.
@ mb21:
I’m thinking that by the 5th inning he’ll consider following Ankiel’s lead in moving to the outfield.
Stupid A’s were supposed to win that. Stupid Bears’ D playing like a sieve.
Stupid Cardinals.
I haven’t paid a ton of attention to NFL so far, but is it safe to say that the Packers are terrible at defense?
@ josh:
I blame Soriano
One thing Cutler doesn’t do real well is rush. Not that he doesn’t do a good job of moving, but he’s not very fast.
Tim Jennings is getting beat up bad today.
@ Suburban kid:
Always a safe bet.
How long has that guy lived here? Why can’t he speak comprehensible English? Soto sounds like he grew up in Minnesota.
@ josh:
“If you think his English is bad, you should hear his Spanish!” -other Domincans, maybe.
josh wrote:
Oh, you betcha. Well, doncha know, he eats that hot dish alla the time?
What a play by Werth
That was Brenley, wasn’t it? I thought we were done with him!
YES
Three of the NL teams in the playoffs have red uniforms.
GW wrote:
He’s pretty daring for a Minnesotan – he actually puts black pepper in his food.
@ Suburban kid:
The Cubs should switch their colors to red and white. Much easier to get into the playoffs that way.
@ mb21:
It’s really very simple.
Well, the red team won.
@ mb21:
The Cubs already have red and white as official colors. (They also have blue as a color, but so do the Cardinals and Nationals.) /pedant
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
Actually, I shouldn’t have put that there, since it implies it’s the end of my pedantry, when, of course, it’s no such thing.
And you all though the Nationals needed Strasburg!
mb21 wrote:
The Badgers disagree
@ Berselius:
You talking about college football? Silly b, they don’t have playoffs…
Or did that start this year?
Anyone know if they’re going to get the game in?
@ josh:
7:40 CT start was announced
@ Berselius:
Ichiro still doesn’t look right in that Yankees uniform. (dying laughing)
@ mb21:
The pinstripes are supposed to help him look thinner.
@ Berselius:
There are more teams in college football who wear red and white. There are 5 teams in baseball that I can think of that wear red and white. Only the Phillies and Angels didn’t make the playoffs. Only 20% of teams that don’t wear red and white are in the playoffs while 60% who do are. I think any team not wearing red and white just isn’t trying. red and white must be a performance enhancer.
Those pinstripes are performance enhancers.
@ mb21:
Red things go faster. It’s science.
I knid of like that the team with the worse record is starting out at home in the LDS. It guarantees every team they’ll have more than 1 home game in the playoffs. It doesn’t change anything. Better team still gets 3 at home. The more I’ve thought about the more I like it.
Pinstripes apparently do not prevent TOOTBLANs though.
@ Berselius:
Yeah, Berselius. Yeah, Science!
@ mb21:
I like it better than the old system, but mostly because there are less travel days and rotation depth is a little more important. I’d rather the better team gets to play ALL the games at home though.
@ Rice Cube:
Red and white with pinstripes do.
@ Berselius:
I’d prefer 4 at home and 1 on the road. I think that balances it out.
@ mb21:
I was thinking about this and if the top seed takes the first two games or even splits the first two on the road, they get to go home with a chance to close out the series and then host the first two games of the league championship series. Not a bad deal when you can reduce the amount of travel required by the top seed as a perk for earning that seed.
@ Berselius:
I don’t really think that is fair or good for the fans. The fans have to come out to support the team and the sport. Not allowing any home games will alienate lots of fans.
I’m fine with 2-3. I’d also be fine with Ozzie’s suggestion that they just cut the season down to 159-160 games, but he suggested so for a 3-game WC round, which I don’t agree with. Cut the season to add a travel day to go back to 2-2-1 if you want. But honestly, I think the new baseball playoff format is the smartest change that baseball has made since instituting the first WC.
@ SVB:
Well, 4 and 1 then like mb suggested. I don’t think this current format is particularly fair to the team that earned a higher seed. It should be worth more.
@ Berselius:
I assume you’ve all considered that the lower seed won’t take kindly to losing the gate receipts to one home game.
@ Berselius:
I don’t think it is really that unfair. Look at Cincy. They took one in SF and now have the chance to clinch at home, three times, if they beat SF tonight. I don’t think it is unfair to ask a higher seed to win once on the road to maintain their advantage. Besides, if they do lose two away, like Oakland, at least they still get to go home for the rest of the series.
Too many travel days erodes interest. Just look at hoops and hockey. Those playoff series never end. Also, fewer travel days means you have to use your starting pitchers better. Probably means you need 4 starters, or you short rest 2. The higher seed should be deeper, so they could handle that better. I really dislike series where a team only has to throw 3 pitchers.
How would 4-1 work? 1 at lower seed to start and then 4 at higher? Or 2-1-2.? If the latter, might as well go back to 2-2-1, either combination has 2 travel days.
@ Rice Cube:
This. Perhaps the #1 reason why I think 4-1 is DOA.
@ Rice Cube:
They have all the gate negotiated in advance, the road team gets a hefty cut. Plus they get all the postseason TV $$$.
@ Rice Cube:
That is definitely why it will never happen though
@ SVB:
1-4
Those Orioles have a deal with the Devil.
@ Berselius:
I’m guessing the lower seed would like to sell some concessions and souvenirs too, but it might end up being negligible.
@ Berselius:
The fans would like to be able to see their team play at home.
I guess that’s already been mentioned. Personally, I don’t care much about a higher seed “earning” a bigger advantage, whatever that means. I’m fine with both teams having roughly equal odds and I think it might even make for more exciting series (by giving the underdog team more of a chance).
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Yeah, my refresh key sucks too. Probably because I have to press both command and R, and my brain has to send the signal to do it.
Jeter —> ERROR
Bronson Arroyo —> doing something
As I see it, the only reason they give one team more home games than the other is because there is an odd number of games (max) for each series. Otherwise, they’d give each team the same number of home games. It’s not so much about earning home field advantage as it is you’ve got to give it to somebody.
@ Rice Cube:
Bronson Arroyo throwing a no-hitter in the playoffs would be the single most unlikely occurence in the history of sport
@ Berselius:
Did you forget about Humber’s perfecto already?
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Arroyo is just as awful, plus playoffs
#bunttowin
No-hitter done!
WTF Lincecum in relief wow
Rice Cube wrote:
@ Aisle424:
That’s impressive and possibly a little stupid.
@ Aisle424:
Why waste all those throws warming up?
It’s a market inefficiency.
It’s absolutely insane. And nobody is talking about it.
The TBS guys casually mentioned it like they were talking about how he ties his shoes.
The O’s are on the wrong side of a one-run game.
Ichiro!
@ Rice Cube:
False.
This is shaping up to be my least favorite postseason of all time.
Giants are pretty much screwed tonight. *sigh*
@ josh:
I figured Cano was due, but A-Rod has been sucking bad.
Bumgarner really carried the Giants for quite a while this summer, but in the last month he seemed burned out. I think he only had one decent game in Sept.
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
Yeah, you and MO have been “pedants” since at least 1957, I don’t expect it to change now.
@ Suburban kid:
This picture is very confusing.
@ Rice Cube:
Let it happen to you.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
The fuck?
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/10/8/3473496/sam-holbrook-infield-fly-umpire-controversy-braves-cardinals
The two extra umpires miss calls sometimes, just as the regular four do. Therefore, if we eliminate these two extra umpires, there will be no more missed calls. QED
Kinda cool how the water slows down the bullet so much.
It’s incredible to me that you can fire a gun underwater in the first place.
@ GBTS:
I guess there’s enough combustible stuff inside the bullet that it’ll still fire, but I assume you’re talking about the water gumming up the inner workings of the gun.
http://www.sbnation.com/2012/10/8/3449142/qwop-persistence-is-futile
(dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
I would think you’d have to do it quickly so the powder didn’t get wet. That’s really the issue. Wet powder might not ignite. Maybe they used watertight bullets. The actual gun is just a mechanical device and wouldn’t be effected by the water.
@ Rice Cube:
Who knew they had Mardi Gras during the Eisenhower administration?
@ Suburban kid:
Anyone who’s read “The Cask of Amontillado”?
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/the-top-20-cubs-performances-in-a-2012-game.html
Hiya – very nice website!! I’ll bookmark it. Thanks for sharing. Cheers!