The A's came from about a billion games back to win the AL West thanks to the Rangers cubbing the final month or so of the season. That's not to say the A's backed into the playoffs. They won 94 games, which was just one back of the AL leading Yankees.
The Tigers fell back in the AL Central early and worked their way back to the top, but White Sox probably don't know they're team was even in contention.
Entering the season I thought the Rangers were the best team in baseball followed closely by the Tigers and Yankees. The Rangers season ended in game 163 before the real playoffs begin, the Yankees tried to throw their huge division lead away to both the O's and the Rays and the Tigers didn't claim first place until late in the season. At one point it looked as though it was entirely possible none of the teams I thought were the 3 best in the AL (and probably all of baseball) would even win their division. As a result, at least one of them would miss the new 10-team playoffs. In the end, the Tigers beat out the White Sox and the Yankees outlasted the improbable O's, but the Rangers fell on the final day and the A's won their division.
The O's got off to a strong start and continued to win games all season though they were helped by the Yankees sucking for awhile, but that was not necessarily the case for the A's. At the end of June, the A's were 37-42 and trailed the MLB best Rangers by 13 games. They were an afterthought for the playoffs. They made it and it's our responsible at the highly regarded Obstructed View to preview this series as best as possible.
Storylines you may or may not care about
Did you hear Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown? I'm thinking you guys should have a drinking game and drink every time the announcers talk about his triple crown.
There are rookies in the A's rotation and lots of them. If the A's win it all, the 'Moneyball' philosophy will be a success, but if they lose it will be bullshit and an example of why Brad Pitt and like-minded GMs are ruining the game. Josh Donaldson was traded by the Cubs to the A's for Rich Harden, along with Eric Patterson.
Projected Starting Lineups
I'm thinking you guys should have a drinking game and drink every time the announcers talk about Cabrera's triple crown.
Rotations
Tigers: Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, Max Scherzer
A's: Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, Brett Anderson (not yet confirmed), AJ Griffin (not yet confirmed)
Statistics (AL rank)
- wRC+: Tigers 104 (3rd), A's 98 (6th)
- FIP- (SP): Tigers 85 (1st), A's 98 (6th)
- FIP- (RP): Tigers 90 (6th), A's 93 (8th)
- UZR: A's 24.3 (5th), Tigers -28.1 (13th)
- DRS: A's 14 (7th), Tigers -32 (13th)
- BsR: A's 7 (3), Tigers -5.9 (13th)
PECOTA: Not sure where I can find, or if even it exists anymore, but Baseball Prospectus used to give odds of winning a series. They do so for tonight's game in Detroit with one of the best pitchers of the last 25 years on the mound for Detroit. The Tigers have a 67.8% chance of winning tonight's game. Considering the odds would be similar in a Game 5, you've got to think the Tigers are heavy favorites to win this series.
I admit that I haven't paid a great deal of attention to these two teams this season. I thought the A's had little chance of a playoff spot so I never really bothered watching them. I also thought the Tigers were all but guaranteed a playoff spot and was looking forward to seeing them in the postseason. In a 5-game series with a pitcher like Justin Verlander I'm almost always going to pick that team to win the series and I do that here too.
Tigers in 4. Brad Pitt's 'Moneyball' approach is trashed for the next 12 months.
I picked the Tigers to win the AL pennant because Verlander is such a weapon in the playoffs. None of the other playoff teams has anyone approaching his level. Well, unless the Nationals weren’t idiots in handling Strasburg.
For what it’s worth, under the old rules the Orioles and Rangers would have played a one-game tiebreaker anyway.
aside about new new forums: http://www.obstructedview.net/aside/another-new-forum.html
@ Berselius:
Helps to have Cabrera and Fielder in the middle of the lineup.
b, you’ve got a preview coming later today, right?
Brad Pitt (dying laughing)
Just a thought, do you think the huge UZR disparity has more weight in a short series like this? Especially given the Braves last night..
@ akabari:
I don’t know. My inclination is to say that it’s relatively meaningless in a short series, but I could be dead wrong.
@ mb21:
Which is kind of the opposite of what I said yesterday when I said if I was running a team in the playoffs I’d be more than happy to carry an all-glove guy even if he can’t out-hit Josh Vitters. I wouldn’t bat him, but I’d play him an inning or two each game I had a lead.
@ mb21:
Yeah, that’s sort of what I meant. I mean, if you have a team that is so. Much. Worse. At fielding. And runs are a premium, I figure that a team so much more likely to cause an error would work to minimize that somehow.
And I agree with you. I’d take some amazing fielding Josh Hitters any day for the bench.
@ mb21:
Yeah, finishing it up now.
Josh Hitters. An ironic typo (dying laughing)
I read Josh Hitters on my phone and laughed out loud. (dying laughing)
@ mb21:
Too bad we can’t do more than one macro. A Vitters —–> Hitters macro would be perfect (dying laughing)
Website developer: “I will make it so they can make one funny macro. BUT NO MORE. ONLY ONE.”
I want the A’s to win just so I can see Joe Morgan’s head explode.
@ Berselius:
(dying laughing) might be able to do that with this plugin. I’ll try it out later.
http://wordpress.org/extend/plugins/word-filter-plus/
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/10/6/3463338/infield-fly-rule-controversy-braves-cardinals-wild-card
@ Suburban kid:
Technically what we use for our macro is the built-in profanity filter
Berselius wrote:
Cock. Balls. (dying laughing).
This showed up in the mail earlier this week, thanks to MLB Network
@ Aisle424:
That’s one of my favorite comedies.
@ Berselius:
My OV legacy.
Also I want my refund on the official OV coin I purchased yesterday.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I think it was a poor call, but poor calls happen. My issue isn’t really with that play in particular, but future plays like that. It’s clear to me that this should never happen again. So what are the options?
There are at least a few that I can think of. The fielder must complete the play. Don’t allow multiple outs. Clearly define at what point an infield fly rule is no longer possible.
Complete the play
The intention of the rule to is to protect the baserunner. More than 99% of infield fly calls are easy and successful. For the small percentage that aren’t, the play is ruled over immediately after the fielder fails to catch it and the batter gets a single while the baserunners advance one base.
Saw something like this posted on The Book Blog last night. Basically, you protect the fielders and keep the play almost exactly like it is now. However, at no time can more than one out be applied on an infield fly rule. Using this in combination with the first one would make the most sense to me. The play has to be completed and in order to safely protect the players no more than one out on any infield fly rule can be applied. Problem solved.
infield fly rule area
If this goal is to protect the players from being doubled up, at what point is too deep to do just that? The runners went half way last night because the ball was deep enough for them to get back. To me, it’s ridiculous that the baserunners could go half way and it’s still an infield fly rule. If there’s little chance of being doubled up, which there was last night on that play (baserunners half way would have returned to their base had it been made), then ithere’s no reason to protect the baserunners any more than they do for line drives to the gap.
@ akabari:
We can only give refunds in the form of vouchers for future playoff prediction merchandise.
So basically, IF Fly is called and the runners are allowed to run. If it’s caught, they go back to the base. If it isn’t, only one can be thrown out. I like it.
There’s a small loophole, but I think it would be fairly moot. If there are a bunch of players on base they can just keep running no matter what once one out is made…but an infield fly not being caught is already so unusual anyway.
I would say that I can’t believe Sparty is losing to Indiana, but this is the Big Ten. Ugh.
I guess it’s Sparty’s turn to lose to a FCS team.
@ Berselius:
Limit it so baserunners can advance one base at the most.
Verland/Cabrera/Fielder notwithstanding, I think the A’s are going to pull it off.
Speaking of the word filter, around 06 or 07, I remember Ryno went in and changed “breaking” to read “c*nting.” So during the game thread, every time someone talking about a “breaking ball” or “breaking for home, 2B, etc” it reading c*nting ball, etc. (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Ryno was good about sneaking those common words into the filter.
@ mb21:
(dying laughing)
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I don’t remember the word, but one time I was so fucking confused by what I wrote that I had no idea why I wrote it. Then I noticed it from others and just laughed.
Speaking of Ryno, pretty sure he’s not very happy right now and will probably just give up baseball altogether after that Rangers collapse.
Alex Hinshaw declared free agency. How are the Cubs going to contend next year without him?
@ mb21:
At least he’s not a Braves fan. He’d probably need a new TV.
@ mb21:
They didn’t get a lot of return from that Derrek Lee trade.
@ Berselius:
That’s how they got Hinshaw? I guess the Cubs didn’t get $5 million in return for him. (dying laughing)
@ mb21:
Luis Valbuena
Terry Francona ——> Indians?
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Oh yeah. Don’t know why I forgot about our young star at 3rd.
I really want the Cubs to sign BJ Upton. That can only end badly, right?
@ mb21:
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2008/10/20/637547/building-a-cubs-champion-i
@ mb21:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/indians-to-hire-terry-francona.html
Sounds that way.
@ Berselius:
Then I’d like to reserve my official OV “Cubs Playoff Chances 2013 Magic 8 Ball:All Signs Point to No” now before its too late. I know they’ll sell fast.
New preview up
http://www.obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-san-francisco-giants-94-68-vs-cincinnati-reds-97-65.html