Position Battles: Back-up Catcher

In Commentary And Analysis, Projections by dmick89109 Comments

The Cubs roster is mostly set with a few exceptions. Welington Castillo and Steve Clevenger are battling it out for the back-up catcher spot. There's been this invented competition for the rotation, which I think is mostly nonsense. You've got Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster and Paul Maholm who are guaranteed spots in the rotation. Certainly deserving of a spot is Randy Wells and one of Chris Volstad and Travis Wood. I don't believe Jeff Samardzija has a chance, but as long as the Cubs are letting him think he does we may as well act like it. I guess. We've got nothing better to do anyway. Then there's the back-ups in the infield and outfield and some spots in the bullpen. Let's start with the back-up catcher.

Neither catcher has enough playing time at the big league level for that to be of any concern. Castillo has all of 34 plate appearances and Clevenger just 5. As much as I don't like the idea of settling on who will win a position based on the very small sample in spring training, I dislike it just as much that they'd base it on such small samples at the big league level. Then again, this isn't a major position so it's not a big deal what criteria they use, but the two of them have far more playing time in the minors and can be directly compared to one another.

Each has played 6 minor league seasons. Castillo has 1661 plate appearances to Clevenger's 2045. Their batting lines are below:

Castillo: .265/.323/.430
Clevenger: .308/.369/.421

Castillo has performed better at AAA, but last year in limited time Clevenger hit the shit out of the ball. Overall, I think it's tough to make the argument than Castillo is the better catcher. When you factor in Clevenger's higher OBP (and it's significant) I think the offensive value between these two isn't particularly close. Clevenger also offers you the ability to play some infield in a pinch. He bats left handed so will have the platoon advantage in days you might want to rest Geovany Soto.

Their performance this spring is below:

Player PA H HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Castillo 15 6 1 0 3 .400 .400 .667 .453
Clevenger 15 5 1 2 4 .417 .467 .667 .466

A measly 15 plate appearances doesn't tell us much, but considering Clevenger's advantage in career stats and slight advantage this spring I think he's only strenghthened his position as the guy who deserves to be the back-up catcher. I have no idea what the Cubs think. Based on playing time it doesn't appear they're leaning in any one direction, but it's something to watch as we move forward.

What about the projections? The two have projections for CAIRO, ZiPS, PECOTA, Oliver, Steamer and Marcel.

Castillo's average batting line is .246/.297/.408 with a wOBA of .307. Clevenger's line is .269/.323/.385 with a wOBA of .315. In each of the 6 projections, Clevenger is projected to be the better hitter. The closest the two are is in Oliver, which likes Castillo for a .316 wOBA and Clevenger for a .318 wOBA. The others are decisive. I don't have any idea who ends up winning the job, but I know which one is the better offensive player.

Defense? I don't have the foggiest damn clue. And I don't think it should matter either because we haven't even looked at their splits projections. Most of the time Clevenger plays will be against a righty. This will maximize Soto's platoon advantage while doing the same for Clevenger. You can't do that with Castillo. The difference in their offensive abilities seems relatively small, but factor in the platoon advantage that can be maximized and it's really not that close. We'd probably end up with a projection based on 80/20 platoon advantage for Clevenger of about a .325 wOBA. If you let Castillo maximize his platoon advantage you minimize Soto's and since he's the superior player that would be kind of dumb.

Share this Post

Comments

  6. mb21

    @ Berselius:
    Strong arm, poor mechanics has been the word on him. No idea what it is for Clevenger. Suppose I could look that up. Not sure it really matters though. Once you factor platoon advantage into it Castillo just isn’t as good even if he’s a superior fielder.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  10. josh

    @ Rice Cube:
    That angry garbage man video is crazy. I wonder what the story is. I bet he got in a lot of trouble, too. Not for the garbage so much as the mail. Fucking with the mail is bad times.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  11. Berselius

    @ mb21:

    I think my main reason for Castillo being the frontrunner is that it would piss him off if Clevenger jumped the line. If they make Clevenger the backup then I think either Castillo or Geo is traded.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  13. Aisle424

    mb21 wrote:

    We apparently have a new page design on Facebook. Thanks, 424.

    Oops. That was not supposed to get published yet. I was just messing around with it trying to find a good photo for the cover. Well, I guess it’s live now.

    Eventually Facebook was going to force the change to the timeline format anyway. Maybe they did last night? Whatever.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  14. mb21

    @ Berselius:
    I could see one of them traded, but I hope the Cubs don’t care whether or not a potential back-up catcher gets pissed off. I could understand if they don’t want to piss Garza or Castro off. Or even Brett jackson, but not Castillo. It’s like trying not to piss Jay Jackson off.

    I won’t be surprised if they go with Castillo. I think he’s been the obvious pick for awhile, but I think the obvious pick deserves to be taken a closer look at. Had I not done so about 6 months ago I would have just assumed Castillo is better. I was surprised by what I learned.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  16. Aisle424

    Rice Cube wrote:

    What incident? I guess I should google that for me.

    Marshall allegedly punched a woman in the face this past weekend. From what I’ve heard, his explanation is that he wasn’t trying to punch her, he was trying to punch another dude.

    This is all extremely sketchy information that I’ve pieced together from chatter on the radio. So the Google machine is probably your friend here.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  20. Aisle424

    @ Berselius:

    Maybe that’s it. I got the Six Row site ready for the change but waited to publish until after we did the election thing because I liked the way the old site looked with the patriotic images. Then when that ended I manually published the new timeline since I do like the aesthetics of the timeline better.

    I assumed I could do the same with OV and publish it after we all got a chance to see what cover image we like best. There’s no reason we can’t change it now, but now all changes are live.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  22. Mucker

    josh wrote:

    @ Rice Cube:
    That angry garbage man video is crazy. I wonder what the story is. I bet he got in a lot of trouble, too. Not for the garbage so much as the mail. Fucking with the mail is bad times.

    How did the person recording know this guy was gonna go ape shit? The person sets up a camera just to casually catch what goes on when the trashman picks up the trash? I call bollocks.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  23. josh

    @ Mucker:
    I can think of two possibilities: they had complained about the garbage man, and were expecting retaliation, or they had stuff damaged before.

    That said, you’re probably right. That mailbox went down pretty easy. Those things are usually set in concrete. Also the drive off was very smooth. Still, if it’s fake that guy really owned the role. You could feel some anger there, whether manufactured or real. I give it an A-

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  27. Mucker

    @ josh:
    Yeah, that’s possible regarding retaliation or prior damage. But like you said it was a little too smooth. And if you ever see me golf, I look exactly like that guy. (dying laughing)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  30. Aisle424

    @ mb21:

    It’s not the best quality, but it formatted the best as the cover page. I wanted to use the Abbey Road one, but I’d have either had to cut off half the Beatles’ bodies to fit in the Wrigley scoreboard, or cut out the scoreboard. The Traveling Wilbury’s one was the 2nd option, but your name got obscured by the Cubby facepalm.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  38. josh

    Regarding BJax, I think they are, besides thinking about money, worried that they could lose a tested veteran for a guy who’s just having a good month. I don’t think it’s unreasonable not to carry him out of camp. Not saying DeJesus, Byrd, and Sori are going to be better, but you basically take a risk losing one of those guys if commit fully to BJax, and they are all proven MLB talent. If Sori goes on a long tear, or Byrd rediscovers his swing, those guys could be valuable. So there’s a risk, because they don’t want to use BJax as a fourth, and you want to give the three vets a chance to prove themselves. I agree with leaving him in the minors. If he continues to kill it there, I believe they’ll make a move, but I think they’ll move one of the vets off the team or more permanently to the bench, probably whoever has proven themselves to be the weakest link. I could be reading it wrong, but that’s my take.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  40. josh

    Is Gameday lying, or did the Brewers just ground out three in a row on the first three pitches of the game?

    EDIT: Nevermind, game day appears to be throwing a whole bunch of catch-up out there at once.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  41. mb21

    @ Berselius:
    I’m not sure that’s fair. Considering the amount of money that MLB makes in the digital world compared to other sports I don’t think embracing technology is a problem. I think they were slow to adjust to social networking, but ahead of the rest in many other ways.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  42. mb21

    Players can’t link to any MLB website or platform from social media without permission;

    I don’t understand this part. Does that mean no linking to mlb.com? Can they not link to an article about them or a game without permission? That’s odd. Can they link here or BCB or somewhere like that?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  44. josh

    @ mb21:
    I think it’s just MLB owned websites. Not sure why, probably has something to do with MLB.com being a separate entity or something.

    Carrie Muskat: They have kind of a hole in that bullpen.

    Kind of???

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  45. mb21

    @ josh:
    I’m fine with leaving him in AAA though I’m not sure it sends the best message. The Cubs are full in the OF so it’s understandable, but they could release Soriano and move Byrd to LF. That’s probably what I’d do if I ran the team.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  46. josh

    @ mb21:
    I mean, if the decision is that you have to put BJax in the MLB or let him go, then I agree. But I just think Soriano is slightly more of a safe bet because he’s performed at the MLB level so long. I think they figure he at least deserves a month to see if he’s going to do something unexpected, and you’re paying him just for that reason. I think Sori’s on the ropes, though. He’ll have really do something good, or BJax will have to really falter for Sori to keep his spot.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  60. josh

    I was going with the theory that Volstad/Wood would be up for the 5 spot. If Wood is out, then that at least gives Samardzija a slightly better than chance than if Wood and Volstad were both unhittable.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  64. Aisle424

    josh wrote:

    You should use porn stars that share your initials. I’m sure it’s not that hard to find them. Just brainstorming.

    It was scary enough searching for images of porn stars whose names I could think of off the top of my head.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  65. Aisle424

    But yeah, AC got Asia Carrera for that reason, otherwise it would have been Bree Olson (one of Charlie Sheen’s goddesses).

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  67. Mish

    I know Jenna and Asia, but never heard of the fourth. It seems outside of Sasha Gray, none of them coincide with my jerking off peak, which has been since about 1997 until (sometime many years down the road). Carrera and Jameson are seen more often in “classic”, lo-def video quality. HD has really revolutionized the porno industry (dying laughing)

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  75. Mish

    Since our off-topic comments have gotten away from my special interests (Simpsons, Star Wars prequel racism, Game of Thrones, etc), I’m quite glad that we are talking jerking off and porn. That’s right in my wheel house.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  90. mb21

    @ Berselius:
    That sucks. Obviously it had to be done and I haven’t watched an episode other than the pilot, but I really enjoyed it and planned to watch the rest when the season was over.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  91. Suburban kid

    I didn’t know they were porn stars until Mish’s creepy hobby was outed….by Mish…. but before I knew they were porn stars I thought berselius and AC were the nicest looking.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  93. mb21

    Is it wrong that I’ve only seen a few innings of Cubs baseball this year, followed along on Gameday for maybe 8 or 9 innings and have read 0 post-game articles?

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  94. Suburban kid

    mb21 wrote:

    I think he’s been the obvious pick for awhile, but I think the obvious pick deserves to be taken a closer look at.

    That shit is gold, MB.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  95. Aisle424

    @ Suburban kid:

    I tried to pick ones that had entered the mainstream in some way. Jenna Jameson was like the biggest porn star ever, Katie Morgan did Zach & Miri plus the HBO stuff, Sasha Grey has been on Entourage and read to schoolchildren, and Asia Carrera did some Cinemax-y type soft-core stuff back in the 90s.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  96. Suburban kid

    mb21 wrote:

    Is it wrong that I’ve only seen a few innings of Cubs baseball this year, followed along on Gameday for maybe 8 or 9 innings and have read 0 post-game articles?

    (dying laughing)

    It would be wrong if you had watched/followed more than that.

    I’m worse. I have listened to three or four innings all spring, no Gameday, no articles.

    .

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  101. Rice Cube

    @ josh:
    My hopes are already nice and low. I just like listening to baseball on the radio and watching on TV. I guess it IS a way of life. I don’t really even care if the Cubs win or lose anymore. I just like baseball.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  102. josh

    @ Rice Cube:
    I do, too, but I have a few other projects I need to make headway on, and baseball has a way of making three hours go by in which I have accomplished nothing, and if the game is shitty, then I’m down for like 2 hours afterward. Trying to break the cycle, at least for now.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  103. Rice Cube

    @ josh:
    Ah, I like to just listen in the background…usually you can tell from crowd noise if something good happened or not. Baseball is good for multitasking.

    Come this weekend, though, all productivity goes out the window. Damn you, NCAA!

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  104. josh

    @ Rice Cube:
    I try, but it just doesn’t work. I need it louder to drown out cubicle mates or something. Or I just get interested. Or whatever happens. It just tends to suck me in. Lucky for me, I’m basically a two-sport guy. Never got interested in basketball.

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0
  106. Mish

    Sasha Grey was also on Entourage. Maybe still is.

    Also, saw an OV post on my rss about tickets but don’t see it on the site…

      Quote  Reply

    0

    0

Leave a Comment