Pirates @ Cubs Game Thread

In Game Threads by dmick8945 Comments

Time: 7:05 PM CT
TV: WGN, MLB Network
Gameday

LINEUPS

pittsburgh-pirates

Josh Harrison, 2B
Josh Bell, 1B
Andrew McCutchen, CF
Gregory Polanco, RF
Starling Marte, LF
David Freese, 3B
Francisco Cervelli, C
Jordy Mercer, SS
Chad Kuhl, P

Cubs logo

Javier Baez, 2B
Kris Bryant, 3B
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Jorge Soler, LF
Jason Heyward, RF
Addison Russell, SS
Miguel Montero, C
Matt Szczur, CF
Kyle Hendricks, P

Will the Cubs win? No, but it could go either way.

538 Forecast: 61% chance of winning

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Comments

  1. Rice Cube

    Should prob look this up but I think magic number at 18, and that’s 21 wins in August with chance for 22 tomorrow. #woow

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  2. Author
    dmick89

    I don’t give a shit who wins what end of season award, but I’m glad to see Hendricks getting name dropped in the Cy discussion. ERA isn’t all that great a statistic, but pitching is still about run prevention and he’s been so good at that he deserves to be talked about in those discussions.

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  3. Edwin

    Hendricks has an ERA- of 50, and according to Fangraphs his FB velocity is 87.8. Since 2002, among all starters with a FB velocity of 88 or less, his ERA- of 50 is tops. Next best is Andy Pettite and Derrek Lowe with 57. At least for this season, the Greg Maddux comps are applicable.

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  4. Edwin

    Maybe I should worry less about the Cubs ability to acquire pitching, since they basically pulled Arrieta and Hendricks out of nowhere and turned them into Cy Young candidates.

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  5. Author
    dmick89

    Edwin,
    I think the Maddux comps have always been more about his ability to locate and his very good change-up. I don’t think anyone was really comparing the results of the two, but yes, the results of the two are comparable this season. There’s one difference though, Maddux threw harder than Hendricks at that age.

    Not even taking this year into account, Hendricks has been an under the radar guy who was a lot better than a lot of people gave him credit for. I was surprised the media created a 5th starter controversy this spring considering how good Hendricks had been.

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  6. Edwin

    dmick89,

    He’s having success in a sort of non-traditional way (with the low velocity) so I’m not surprised the media or some fans buy into the 5th starter controversy. Honestly, I’m still a little skeptical of how good he’ll be over the next couple seasons. When he first came up, I figured he was typical 4th starter/5th starter material, and it’s hard to shake a first impression.

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  7. Author
    dmick89

    Edwin,

    I think he can probably be a mid rotation starter for a couple years yet. If he loses some velocity than all bets are off, but his location is so good that I’m not really seeing a reason why I should expect serious regression from where his advanced stats are. His FIP has been pretty consistent since he came into the big leagues and he walks so few people that his K-BB% is pretty good. I think the only reason to believe there will be regression (from his advanced stats) is that he throws 88 and that’s not very convincing to me. He throws 88, but he locates better than all but a few people in the game.

    That being said, I don’t think he’s going to have a long 10 year career or anything, but I do think he’ll be a very valuable player for the Cubs given what they’re paying him. And it’s not like Hendricks excels at only one thing (location, which is huge). He also has a great change-up and mixes his pitches really well. The soft contact against him speaks to how difficult he is to get good wood on the ball.

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  8. Edwin

    Developing the changeup has been the big thing for him. He’s always had great control, but he really made big strides in 2014 and then 2015 with turning his changeup into a pitch that can generate whiffs.

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  9. berselius

    To-day’s sweep hoping base ball squadron

    Fowler
    Bryant
    Rizzo
    Soler
    Heyward
    Russell
    La Stella
    Contreras
    Hammel

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