OV Daily Facepalm

In Facepalm by berselius103 Comments

dailyfacepalm

Lots of HRs, lots of walks

Baez and Olt both hit bombs off of Randy Wolf (video here and here), a not uncommon occurance for Randy Wolf. Olt later hit another bomb against against a Mariners reliever.

Likely fifth starter James McDonald issued five walks in 2 2/3 innings in his start last night.

First round of cuts

The first round of cuts happened yesterday. Jorge Soler is bound for Tennessee, while Alcantara, Watkins, and Szczur were sent to Iowa. Also cut were Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, Valez, Pimental, and Jokisch. All were sent to minor league gen-pop. 

Edwin Jackson friction with coaching staff

The coaching staff was kind of surprised/pissed at Jackson in his last outing, when he got knocked around after throwing nothing but fastballs. Which shouldn't be a big deal, but the coaches claim he didn't tell them about it beforehand. He threw an intrasquad game yesterday and threw three different types of pitches, but the quotes from Jackson and the coaching staff sound like fences aren't completely mended.

"I told them before the game," Jackson said. "I don't know if they thought it was for real. I got tired of being asked about it. Eric Gagne would go through a whole Spring Training throwing changeups."

…..

[Renteria] said he'd talk to the right-hander, but on Wednesday, the pitcher said they didn't.

"There's nothing to talk about," Jackson said.

Renteria said it was a private matter.

"He threw three pitches today," Renteria said. "It speaks for itself, I think."

So, no problem with the fastball-only outing?

"He was just doing what he wanted to do, which is work on his fastball command," Renteria said. "He had a purpose and a reason for doing what he was doing."

Renteria later said that he was happy with what he saw from Jackson's outing yesterday, so *shrug*. Maybe MLB network should send Kevin Millar out to have a sit-down with Jackson and explain to him that he should have told the coaching staff 8 months ago that he was going to throw fastballs in this start.

Is there a Cubs game today?

No.

How is replay going so far in Spring Training?

Through Tuesday, there have been 21 challenges so far in spring training, and only one has been overturned. BP's Zachary Levine takes a look at the system which certainly looks like a clusterfuck so far (not surprisingly). The article is paywalled, but the gist is that the relative lack of deterrent for challenges means there's no reason not to challenge very low probability plays. I do like the idea of penalizing a team with an extra out, but I'm not sure if MLB will let something like that mess up its box scores. There are a few other ideas listed from an earlier study by Pizza Cutter, but in my opinion the best solution would be to penalize the losing team with an intentional walk to whomever their next opposing batter is.  

One piece of good news is that on average the replay process has only taken three minutes per challenge, thus on average an extra 15 seconds per game in total.

Astros gotta Astro

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  1. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    but the quotes from Jackson and the coaching staff sound like fences aren’t completely mended.

    Hard to blame the guy. Theo said it was a mistake to sign Jackson. They had to know that wasn’t going to go over too well with him.

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  2. Myles

    Each team should have a challenge bank. They get 10 incorrect challenges a year, after which they just can’t challenge any more. Any correct challenges don’t count against your pool. If challenges are successful 20% of the time, this is around 12 challenges per team per year. That’s an extra 24 challenges per team (including opponents) * 3 minutes per challenge = 72 minutes per team per season, which is less than 30 seconds a game. Seems reasonable, and doesn’t fundamentally change the game like intentional walks/outs would.

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  3. akabari

    Willie Young —-> Bears 3 years 14 Mil, 9 mil guarantee. Reports make it seem like he’s a bit of a lottery signing since last year was his first full year.
    Sound right Ryno?

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  4. Mercurial Outfielder

    I’ll be shocked if Sandberg survives the season in that job. The whole org is a mess, but he’s going to make it a whole lot worse with this Telephone Tough Guy routine. #FiredByAugust

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  5. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ akabari:
    I am loving the Bears’ offseason so far. I think it’s a series of understated, but effective moves. Emery had a plan, and seems to be executing it.

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  6. Like You Care

    Edwin wrote:

    @ Like You Care:
    Any changes to your mock drafts, so far?

    Free agency changed positional value for teams, but the players’ values should be pretty set by now.

    Do you guys prefer the sim mock drafts or would you rather I just did one first round mock? Maybe a first round mock and a list of guys that might fit each team in later rounds?

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  7. Like You Care

    @ akabari:

    Lottery or depth with upside. Not many sacks, but a lot of pressures for the amount he played.

    He should be an upgrade over Peppers and a decent starter, but that shouldn’t stop them from trying to upgrade.

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  8. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Like You Care:
    I’m more interested in later round values. I think given what the Bears have done in FA, Emery is almost certainly planning to trade down.

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  9. Like You Care

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:

    They’re definitely heading in the right direction. I think that defense is going to look really different from last season’s. Obviously the personnel, but mostly the scheme.

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  10. Like You Care

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:

    They should. This is the best Top 50 I can remember…easily.

    Day 2 guys I really like for Chicago by round:

    2.
    Dominique Easley, DT, Florida – Aaron Donald with two ACL injuries. Injury risk, but might be more talented.
    Kareem Martin, DE, UNC – First-round talent without the production. When I watched UNC last season, he stood out.
    Lamarcus Joyner, DB, FSU – Undersized, but physical. Think Tyrann Mathieu.
    Jeremiah Attaochu, OLB, Ga. Tech – Little like Bruce Irvin to me. OLB no matter the front, imo, but he’ll get into the backfield.

    3.
    Deone Bucannon, S, Wash. St. – Physical S. Can cover, but more of a box S, imo, which is needed in that division.
    Pierre Desir, CB, Lindenwood – Raw but athletic press CB.
    Kelcy Quarles, DL, S.C. – Best as a 5T, imo.
    E.J. Gaines, CB, Mizzou – My favorite CB in this draft value wise. Tenacious.

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  11. Like You Care

    Day 3 guys I really like for Chicago by round:

    4.
    DeAndre Coleman, DT, Cal – Not really sure where his value is, but I like him here. Not really productive, but one of the top athletes in the draft. PERFECT 5T, physically.
    Caraun Reid, DT, Princeton – (Obviously) smart interior 3T/5T.
    Antone Exum, DB, Va. Tech – Another DB tweener.
    Ahmad Dixon, S, Baylor – Might go earlier based on positional value. Super athletic and aggressive. SS, imo.
    Phillip Gaines, CB, Rice – Watched some film on him after Mucker asked about him. There’s a lot to like.

    5.
    Justin Ellis, DT, La. Tech – NT size but moves like a 3T.
    Brett Smith, QB, Wyoming – CHI must bring in a QB, and I think Trestman will fall in love with Smith.
    Ross Cockrell, CB, Duke – Another CB whose value I love. He showed really well against aggy, imo.

    6.
    Marqueston Huff, FS, Wyo. – Another tweener.
    Aaron Lynch, DE, S.Fla. – First-round ability. Poor workouts and play have dropped him, but I absolutely take a shot on him here.
    Colt Lyerla, TE, Oregon – Kind of a dickhead, but another first-round talent. Run 12 personnel with him and Bennett all day.

    7.
    Carrington Byndon, CB, Texas – Not really physical, but good enough in coverage to take a chance.

    The theme here is scheme diversity. It really seems like CHI is intent on running a defense that moves guys across multiple gaps.

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  12. Like You Care

    @ Mucker:

    How do you want me to do them? Do you want me to pass on players I don’t think will realistically be there? Auburn OT Greg Robinson is nearly always on the board for CHI when I do them, but there’s no fucking way he’ll be there in reality.

    But there are always surprises, so maybe I should.

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  13. Mucker

    @ Like You Care:
    I’d say pass on them. Yeah, there’s a chance but I can’t see 13 other teams passing on Robinson or Clowney or somebody like that. Even if they slip, I can’t see either of them getting out of the Top 8 picks.

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  14. Mucker

    @ Like You Care:
    Thanks for looking into Gaines. I thought he looked really intriguing at the combine. I would love for the Bears to get him in the 4th. Do you think he’s a possible NB his rookie season? Bears only have three CBs signed I believe so they need to address the position.

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  15. Like You Care

    @ Mucker:

    Sure thing. I don’t have time to look into everyone, so it’s a good way to broaden my knowledge.

    I don’t think Gaines has to be relegated to NB, tbh. He looked good in coverage from what I saw and I think he’d be fine on the outside.

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  16. Like You Care

    @ Mucker:

    Fuck it. I’m not using the sim…

    1. Aaron Donald, DT, PITT – If disruption is production, this is the draft’s most productive player.
    2. Jimmy Ward, S, N. Ill. – Baby Earl Thomas. Positional value might move him up.
    3. Jeremiah Attaochu, OLB, Ga. Tech – Scheme diverse OLB will live in the backfield.
    4. Phillip Gaines, CB, Rice – Immediate starter, imo.
    5. Justin Ellis, DT, La. Tech – Quick, agile 330 pounder.
    6. Marqueston Huff, DB, Wyoming – Nickel DB.
    7. Garrett Gilbert, QB, SMU – NFL tools.

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  17. akabari

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    Agreed. Not only do you get a sort of lottery pick and at worst is just some dude with upside if something does come along in the draft, you also get to steal him away from a division rival at a pretty sweet price.
    So far none of the big names are people I’m super upset the Bears missed. I really like what Emery is doing to.
    Lemme posit this, though. With Steve Smith being released today, you think he’s worth something like $2.5 Mil as a backup or something? How high would you be willing to go on someone like him?

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  18. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ akabari:

    I wouldn’t give up much for Smith. He has had some real problems getting open on a consistent basis the past couple years, and the Bears’ locker room is already a delicate place without adding a player who is both temperamental and in decline to the mix. You’d take the baggage if he was 2008 Steve Smith. But 2014 Steve Smith might not be worth the trouble in a locker room that already has powerful personalities in it.

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  19. Author
    Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect

    From what I’ve heard, Steve Smith is second only to MJ when it comes to sheer competitiveness/grudge holding. I’m hoping he signs with someone like the Saints or another NFC South team so he can destroy his former team.

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  20. Suburban kid

    Something I’ve always wondered about:

    If you need to escape justice as a fugitive, would it be better to go to a huge city (where there are millions of people, but also lots of cops), or to a remote rural area, where there is hardly anyone around and few cops/authorities?

    /bring back OV forums

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  21. Myles

    I want Smith to sign with the Chargers and run the slot, though he’s the antithesis of what San Diego usually does for their wide receivers (really tall). It’s changing with McCoy.

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  22. Suburban kid

    @ Edwin:
    I don’t know. I like the idea of “blending in” with the masses in a sea of humanity. I’d feel pretty exposed out in the wilderness. I’m trying to avoid leaping from cliffs, buildings, moving trains, etc., and just want to become invisible.

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  23. Edwin

    @ Suburban kid:

    I guess it depends on your own skill set.

    How would you “blend in” per se? Where would you sleep and go during the day? Especially in this day and age, where everyone has a smart phone and access to 24/7 news, I think it’d be tough to blend in.

    I like the rural setting because there are fewer people to worry about exposing you. Find a secluded cabin out in the woods where you won’t be bothered. Make sure you have a good wood chipper, just in case anyone gets too curious.

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  24. Mucker

    @ Like You Care:
    That’s a great draft for the Bears. That’s at least two upgrades in Donald and Ward and Gaines is a possible starter. I’d be pretty pumped if the draft fell that way for the Bears.

    If you want to bounce some draft thoughts off me when you do the mock, I’d be happy to offer some feedback. I don’t know very much but if you are second guessing a pick or just want a second set of eyes to look at a particular fit, I’ll help you out.

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  25. EnricoPallazzo

    @ Suburban kid:
    i think that surveillance cameras will be ubiquitous enough within <3 years that "hiding:" in a city will become difficult. unless you plan to get a good disguise/plastic surgery?

    it also depends on what you mean when you say remote rural area. if you're talking about a small town in the middle of nowhere, i think that a stranger will be detected immediately and most likely undergo at least a cursory background check (e.g. the cops will run your plates). so your cover story will need to stand up to (at least) mild scrutiny.

    if you opt for a tent in the woods where you are a hundred miles away from the nearest town, then your chances of being found drop dramatically, but once you are discovered, you will probably be subjected to a much more intense background check.

    i think your best bet would be to go somewhere like north dakota where there are a bunch of transient towns popping up to support the energy business. there would be enough new faces showing up on a daily basis that you wouldn't draw a lot of scrutiny, yet you'd be free from the routine surveillance of a big city.

    /sinceyouasked

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  26. Suburban kid

    @ Edwin:
    True that. My outdoor skills were only a little above average at best when I was a boy scout, and have atrophied since then. But I do have a knack for having nobody notice me. I look pretty average, no real distinguishing features, and could easily change my look frequently with the use of wigs, glasses, different clothing styles etc. I’m not a psycho. I won’t murder anyone who tries to catch me. I just don’t want to get caught.

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  27. Suburban kid

    @ Mucker:
    That comes with a LOT of benefits — income, place to stay, and you’re always moving from place to place. Can’t believe I didn’t think of it. Only trouble is you would be exposed to a lot of people in a lot of places. And, the feds probably check out circuses when looking for fugitives. Hmmm…

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  28. JimL

    @ Suburban kid:

    If you need to escape justice as a fugitive, would it be better to go to a huge city (where there are millions of people, but also lots of cops), or to a remote rural area, where there is hardly anyone around and few cops/authorities?

    I think it would depend upon how well know of a fugitive you are. If it was like the Boston bomber where your face is on the front of every newspaper and on the TV every 5 minutes then I think it would be better to hide out in a rural area where the frequency of contact is much lower. Because in this case even civilians are a threat.

    If you are just a run-of the-mill fugitive where perhaps the police were shown a blurred photocopy of a picture of you once and it is now forgotten, then being anonymous in a city would be perfectly fine. Maybe even better than in a rural area because strangers in a rural area stick out.

    Why, what are you planning to do?

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  29. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    JimL wrote:

    If you are just a run-of the-mill fugitive where perhaps the police were shown a blurred photocopy of a picture of you once and it is now forgotten, then being anonymous in a city would be perfectly fine. Maybe even better than in a rural area because strangers in a rural area stick out.

    I can’t think of any situation in which it would be better to be in a populated city. The more people there are, the higher the odds of being recognized and reported. There are fewer places the authorities are unaware of in a city.

    I can think of a few places within 100 miles of where I grew up in Iowa that would be great hideouts. I can think of a few more in Arizona and there are probably about 25 or so great locations in Oregon alone. I imagine Washington is the same and the mountainous regions in this country would provide fantastic hideouts.

    Any place in the desert that is off the road would also be a great place to hide. I think I read once that there are more fugitives in Arizona than any state. Maybe that’s changed, but there are just so many places, some of which appear to be out in the open, but are anything but.

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  30. Suburban kid

    @ Mucker:
    An excuse for wearing a disguise every day? Compelling, but I might prefer jail to being a clown.@ JimL:
    Good point about how well known you are as a fugitive. I’m not planning anything, I just worry about this sometimes. It is just an interesting problem to contemplate.
    @ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
    I suppose. But when you’re in a teeming metropolis like New York how many faces in the crowd do you even get a chance to focus on? 0.001%

    All those hideouts in the desert or prairie sound good. Not sure I’d be able to live off the land, though.

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  31. Edwin

    @ Suburban kid:

    Finding work could be hard, depending on how much of a background check places do, and what kind of payment options you’d have. If you can get a job that pays cash, that’d be huge. The seedier the place the better. I like the idea of some type of mining work, perferably near towns with railroads. If it’s temporary enough, it lets you blend in with the other new faces, while not having to stay in one place for too long. And being near the railroads to hitch a ride on a cargo car can help you make a quick getaway (hopefully), without having to rent a car or buy a bus ticket.

    If you’re in the city, I’d suggest finding something third shift, preferably as some type of janitorial service for office buildings, or possibily a library. It could give you good access to computers/internet in a public setting, and that way you’d be most active when the majority of the city is sleeping.

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  32. Edwin

    @ Suburban kid:

    For the dessert/praire hideout, maybe you could wind up close to one of those places that sells the camping vacation package, or something. That way you could pop into a general store every once in awhile for supplies, and you’d be just another tourist/vacationer. It’d probably explain your accent too.

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  33. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
    You’re not going to be eating organic, but there are always tiny little grocery stores to go to. You could easily survive and I know because I’ve done it for a month, but I was camping and not running from the law. It wouldn’t be a great life by any means, but if you want to hide, you definitely don’t want to be in a city. You want to be as far away from people as you can. The less you come into contact with them and coming into contact with as few people as possible.

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  34. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ Mucker:
    Depending on why you’re a fugitive, you’d probably want to see if Mexico would extradite you first. They will for some things. But yes, Mexico would be better than the US. It’s more likely the US would just give up and they’re not going to find you anywhere in their jurisdiction. That’s always a bonus if you’re running from the law.

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  35. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    If you’re wanting some culture and to occasionally take in a movie, like Veronica Mars today, you’d probably want to stay in the city, but assuming you want to hide, there’s no such thing as hiding in plain site.

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  36. Mucker

    I would say the key is your ability to blend in. I would say that a small city is your best bet. A place that’s too big to know everyone but too small to suspect anything. Also, never back yourself into a corner. Always have an escape plan. Don’t bring attention to yourself.

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  37. Mucker

    @ dmick89, Sweatpants Guru:
    That’s true. Even if you hide out in a heavily forested area, there’s the chance of being found by hikers or hunters so it’s possible that just staying on the run is your only safe bet. Moving from area to area and living off the elements. It would be a pretty terrible way to live but one that could be rewarding if you can tough it out for a couple of years to let the heat die down.

    If you guys don’t hear from me for awhile…….keep your fucking mouths closed. hahahaha

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  38. Suburban kid

    Yeah, whatever dm says about not being able to hide in the city, I can definitely see myself working the night shift as a janitor in a skyscraper (guess I’d need a fake identity to pass the background check), or a library, or even a hole in the wall bar or restaurant. I guess some of those deal with the public, so that’s probably a bad idea. Man, I would suck at this.

    I thought about Mexico, but it would be hard to blend in, at least in the beginning.

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  39. Author
    Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect

    Suburban kid wrote:

    guess I’d need a fake identity to pass the background check

    Not so much the background check as the I-9 form you’d have to fill out. I don’t see them background checking a janitor unless they’re handling nuclear materials in that skyscraper.

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  40. uncle dave

    @ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
    You probably wouldn’t be working in a skyscraper, but there’s a pretty substantial cash economy that’s mostly centered around bad neighborhoods in large cities, both in terms of employment and commerce. Those are also pretty good places to go if you don’t want folks asking questions (or, more accurately, talking with the authorities). Assuming you’re a generic middle-class white guy like me, though, you may have trouble blending in.

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  41. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    Mucker wrote:

    Even if you hide out in a heavily forested area, there’s the chance of being found by hikers or hunters so it’s possible that just staying on the run is your only safe bet.

    I don’t know, I’d think staying in one relatively safe place is the best bet. The only way to go from safe place to safe place is probably by traveling through no-so safe places. I’d avoid those.

    For me, it’s pretty simple if I’m ever in that unfortunate situation. I’m finding one place and staying there. I’ll make friends with the local grocer so I can obtain groceries after dark. I wouldn’t go out in public during the day.

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  42. Aisle424

    I think it comes down to how hard someone is looking for you. Are you on an America’s Most Wanted list? You probably want to stay the fuck out of public view as much as possible.

    But I have an old roommate who has multiple arrest warrants out for him both in Illinois and Arizona and as far as I can tell, he seems to be living a relatively normal life in Arizona because his infractions are pretty minor in the grand scheme of things. Mostly theft and attempted fraud as a result of his gambling addiction. Nobody gives a shit as long as he doesn’t put himself in a situation where someone would actively checkup on him (getting pulled over, getting into an altercation that involves the police, etc.).

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  43. Mucker

    Why don’t we all pull our financial resources together and offer somebody a cash reward to be a fugitive for hire? We’ll ask them to live using the blueprints we’ve already supplied and then we’ll hire a bounty hunter to try and track him down. If the fugitive makes it a year without being caught, he gets the money. If the bounty hunter catches him, he gets the money.

    Who’s in?

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  44. TheStealthGM

    Boston mobster Whitey Bulger hid in plain site for more than 16 years.
    He lived in an apartment in Santa Monica with his girlfriend. As a resort town with
    tourists, he blended into the local scenery. He acted normal so no one noticed him.

    Lessons learned:
    Move far away from where you committed your crimes.
    Rent a place to lessen credit or background checks, in the name of girlfriend.
    Don’t draw attention by flaunting money or acting big or tough.

    If you want to hide in a metro area, I would say the Chicago suburbs in a quiet Asian or Hispanic residential street (where people tend not interact with their neighbors or join groups) would be a good hideout.

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  45. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    Aisle424 wrote:

    But I have an old roommate who has multiple arrest warrants out for him both in Illinois and Arizona and as far as I can tell, he seems to be living a relatively normal life in Arizona because his infractions are pretty minor in the grand scheme of things.

    And it depends on where you are. If it’s a minor issue and you have a warrant in Arizona, but live in Illinois, Arizona may not even want to bring you back to the state.

    I’ve been under the assumption in this discussion we’re talking about someone who is wanted for some pretty heavy shit though. If all you did was rob the candy jar, you can probably just go with your life like nothing happened.

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  46. Mucker

    And if the fugitive wins, he will rank the survival options and whoever had the best idea, would get free Cubs tickets for a reward. Whoever had the worst idea, would get free Cubs tickets for a punishment.

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  47. Just plain BVS

    @ Edwin:
    Or if there is a billabong nearby.

    @ uncle dave:
    A nightshift job in a ski resort area might be good too. Transient population for sure. Or near some other big tourist destination. Maybe Colorado front range where people come year round.

    Valentine’s Day on This American Life they did a profile on this guy that was supposed to go to jail for being an accessory to a crime, but because of a bureaucratic snafu was never picked up to serve his time until 16 years later. He lived 2 blocks from his original address. Owned his own contracting business, got married, had kids, etc.
    http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/518/except-for-that-one-thing?act=4
    Maybe it depends on how competent the local authorities are. It was St. Louis, guess they can’t be good at more than one thing, so baseball is it.

    @ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:
    I’m going to get skewered on this for other reasons, but Mr. Hummel/Kurt Hummel was very well done, even if the rest of the show isn’t. I agree that Keith Mars was awesome though.

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  48. Aisle424

    Suburban kid wrote:

    @ Aisle424:
    “old roommate”? “Arizona and Illinois”?

    He got into heavy debt because of trying to make a living playing blackjack when he lived with me here and stole a bunch of my shit to pawn (after an incident where he claimed to pay the rent and then never did where I had to bail him out – he paid me back on that one). Then I learned he also stole a laptop and purchased a crap ton of American Express gift cards on his corporate card and cashed them out (and lost the money), so he was into this company for close to $10,000 and I had cops hanging out outside my apartment for about a week waiting for him to come back. They eventually just gave up.

    He disappeared and I found out he moved to Arizona where he pulled the same basic shit there, except he scammed some girl and her mother out of thousands of dollars so he had the cops after him there too. I’ve found him on FB and as far as I can tell he’s basically just trying to live like he’s in his 20s (he’s about 40 by now) working at a bar and banging ASU co-eds as much as possible.

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  49. Suburban kid

    Myles, is it time to update your odds? Gordo calls Villanueva “the likely fifth starter in place of the injured Jake Arrieta”. ISTR that Newhouse barely stood a chance in your estimates.

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  50. Myles

    Suburban kid wrote:

    Myles, is it time to update your odds? Gordo calls Villanueva “the likely fifth starter in place of the injured Jake Arrieta”. ISTR that Newhouse barely stood a chance in your estimates.

    Hmmm.. I haven’t considered Villanueva more than a fringe candidate, especially considering that McDonald has only been a starter in his career. He did go 3 innings yesterday. He probably has more of a chance than I thought he did.

    Still working on a Kalish write-up, btw, but I’ve been sick for a few days so it’s been a low priority.

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